Growing Dependence on China
Sanctions and lost European outlets have concentrated Russian commodity trade toward China and other Asian buyers. China’s leverage reportedly secures discounts, while talks on a second gas pipeline remain unresolved; exporters face buyer concentration and weaker pricing power.
US Japan Security Coordination
Takaichi and Trump agreed to coordinate closely on China-related economic security, including AI, semiconductors and critical minerals. The alignment reinforces bilateral supply-chain cooperation and may steer procurement, investment and technology choices toward friend-shored partners across the region.
Inheritance reform favors transfers
Ahead of the presidential election, France is promoting temporary measures to accelerate wealth transmission, including higher tax-free cash gifts and lower donation rates, while protecting the Pacte Dutreil. This could influence family-owned companies, capital allocation and succession planning.
Inflation Raises Financing Costs
Rising input prices, tariffs and disrupted oil supplies pushed business-price measures to a near four-year high; the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00%, while Treasury yields topped 5%. Higher financing, freight and energy costs threaten capex, consumer demand and working capital.
Rising Defense Spending Commitments
Taiwan’s push to raise defense spending toward 5% of GDP by 2030, alongside a record NT$1.12 trillion 2027 budget, signals sustained public investment. Businesses should expect stronger demand in defense-related manufacturing, logistics, cybersecurity and resilient infrastructure.
Electricity Reform Tests Investment Delivery
The proposed electricity-market transition includes R440 billion for 14,500 kilometres of transmission lines and plans for 5.2 GW of nuclear capacity. Liberalisation may expand private-sector roles, but municipal debt near R450 billion underscores execution and payment risks.