Mission Grey Daily Brief - February 13, 2025

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is shifting from sanctions to negotiations, with US-Russia talks starting immediately to end the war. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruled out US troops guaranteeing Ukraine's postwar security and called on Ukraine to give up reclaiming all occupied territory. Switzerland has joined the EU's 15th package of sanctions against Russia, banning the recognition of Russian court decisions in cases between Russian and Swiss companies and allowing Swiss companies to exit the Russian market without hindrance. Turkey's president is visiting Pakistan to boost trade and economic ties. China has accused the US Navy of risky behaviour in the Taiwan Strait, while analysts have warned that claims of Chinese meddling in South Korea's election could escalate tensions with Beijing and jeopardise trade ties.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is shifting from sanctions to negotiations, with US-Russia talks starting immediately to end the war. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ruled out US troops guaranteeing Ukraine's postwar security and called on Ukraine to give up reclaiming all occupied territory. This signals to Kyiv that the administration's view of a potential settlement is remarkably close to Moscow's vision. Putin has declared that any peace deal must ensure that Ukraine gives up its NATO ambitions and withdraws its troops from the four regions that Russia annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured. Hegseth indicated that Trump is determined to get Europe to assume most of the financial and military responsibilities for the defense of Ukraine, including a possible peacekeeping force that would not include US troops. Hegseth insisted that NATO should play no role in any future military mission to police the peace in Ukraine and that any peacekeeping troops should not be covered by the part of NATO's founding treaty that obliges all allies to come to the aid of any member under attack.

Switzerland-Russia Sanctions

Switzerland has joined the EU's 15th package of sanctions against Russia, banning the recognition of Russian court decisions in cases between Russian and Swiss companies and allowing Swiss companies to exit the Russian market without hindrance. This protects businesses in Switzerland from financial losses and allows Swiss companies to exit the Russian market without hindrance. The military unit responsible for the shelling of the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv, top managers of leading companies in the Russian energy sector, people responsible for the deportation of children, propaganda, and circumvention of sanctions, as well as two high-ranking officials of the DPRK, were sanctioned. The sanctions list also includes Russian defense firms and shipping companies responsible for transporting crude oil and petroleum products by sea, which provide significant revenue to the Russian government. 52 shadow fleet vessels originating from third countries were sanctioned, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to 79. The list also includes a chemical plant and a civilian Russian airline that provides important logistical support to the Russian military. For the first time, full sanctions were imposed on Chinese entities supplying drone components and microelectronic components to support Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. Companies from India, Iran, Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates that participated in circumventing trade restrictions or purchased sensitive goods for Russia, such as UAVs and missiles, were also sanctioned.

Turkey-Pakistan Trade

Turkey's president is visiting Pakistan to boost trade and economic ties. Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Pakistan at the invitation of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, according to a statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Erdogan will jointly chair the 7th Session of the Pakistan-Turkiye High Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) and the sides are expected to sign a number of agreements. Erdogan will have bilateral meetings with Zardari and Sharif on Thursday. According to the ministry statement, HLSCC will provide strategic direction to further strengthening the bilateral relations between the two countries. The statement said Pakistan and Turkiye are bound by historic fraternal ties and the visit by Erdogan would serve to further deepen the brotherly relations and enhance multifaceted cooperation between the two countries. Pakistan, which has witnessed a surge in militant violence in recent months, has deployed additional police officers and paramilitary forces to ensure the security of the Turkish leader and his delegation.

China-US Relations

China has accused the US Navy of risky behaviour in the Taiwan Strait, after two US naval ships transited the international waterway. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) said it had monitored the movements of the USS Ralph Johnson, a naval destroyer, and the USNS Bowditch, a survey ship, as they moved through the waterway between Monday and Wednesday. Analysts have warned that claims of Chinese meddling in South Korea's election could escalate tensions with Beijing and jeopardise trade ties. Beijing has voiced strong discontent over the allegations by supporters of suspended President Yoon Suk-yeol, who on December 3 plunged the country into political chaos with a martial law decree that he insisted was necessary to investigate election fraud involving China and North Korea. Seoul's election watchdog has dismissed the allegations as baseless. Adding to the controversy, a viral fake news story on YouTube claims that martial law troops arrested 99 Chinese "hackers" who helped opposition parties at the National Election Commission. In response, Dai Bing, the Chinese ambassador in Seoul, issued a statement late on Monday condemning the spread of unfounded allegations. Bing wrote on social media that China has all along upheld the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs and has always honoured its word and is completely above board on it.