US probes non-tariff barriers

Washington is pressuring Seoul to dismantle “non-tariff barriers,” including digital-platform, mapping-data, and app-store payment rules, and is considering Section 301 actions. This raises compliance and lobbying costs for multinationals and could trigger targeted duties or market-access concessions.

FX liquidity and rupee volatility

External debt servicing and episodic reserve drawdowns keep FX liquidity tight, raising risks of delayed import payments, profit repatriation frictions and higher hedging costs. Firms should stress-test PKR moves, secure confirmed LCs, and diversify funding sources and invoicing currencies.

T-MEC revisión y riesgo salida

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC antes del 1 de julio elevó la incertidumbre: Trump evalúa retirarse y EE.UU. exige cambios en reglas de origen, minerales críticos y antidumping. El riesgo de aranceles alteraría planes de inversión, precios y cadenas norteamericanas.

Baht strength and monetary easing

The Bank of Thailand signals accommodative policy and more active FX management amid baht appreciation and election-linked volatility. A potential cut toward 1.00% and tighter controls on gold-linked flows affect exporters’ margins, import costs, hedging needs and repatriation planning.

Inestabilidad social y riesgo regulatorio

Las protestas recurrentes y respuestas de seguridad elevan el riesgo operativo: cierres de internet, restricciones a apps, mayor vigilancia y cambios normativos rápidos. Esto afecta logística urbana, continuidad de negocios, ciberseguridad y cumplimiento de datos, complicando operaciones de filiales y partners.

Volatile US tariff regime

US imposed a 10%–15% global tariff for 150 days under Section 122, replacing an earlier 19% rate on Thailand after a Supreme Court ruling. Policy uncertainty raises pricing, contract, and routing risks for Thai exports—especially electronics and autos.

US–Taiwan tariff pact reshapes trade

A new reciprocal US–Taiwan deal locks a 15% US tariff on Taiwanese imports while Taiwan removes or cuts about 99% of tariff barriers and tackles non-tariff barriers. It shifts pricing, compliance, and market-access assumptions across autos, food, pharma, and electronics.

Rail logistics reforms and PPPs

Freight rail and ports are opening cautiously to private operators, with Transnet conditionally allocating slots to 11 operators and targeting 250Mt by 2030. However, stalled legislation and unresolved third-party access tariffs keep exporters exposed to bottlenecks, demurrage, and modal shift costs.

Economic security ‘club’ trade blocs

US-led ‘invitation-only’ economic security agreements—starting with critical minerals—are becoming central to market access via subsidies, guaranteed purchases, and possible tariffs on non-members. Australia must balance participation benefits against retaliation risk from excluded major partners.

Won volatility and FX buffers

Authorities issued $3bn in FX stabilization bonds as reserves fell to about $425.9bn end‑January, signaling concern about won pressures amid global rates and capital outflows. Importers/exporters should tighten hedging, review pricing clauses, and monitor liquidity conditions.

Concessões e PPPs de infraestrutura

O leilão do Aeroporto do Galeão (mínimo de R$ 932 milhões; outorga variável de 20% da receita bruta até 2039) sinaliza continuidade da agenda de concessões, criando oportunidades para operadores e fundos. Porém, reequilíbrios contratuais e intervenção regulatória seguem no radar.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing’s dominance—about 70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% processing—keeps global manufacturers exposed to licensing delays or sudden controls. Western allies are organizing price floors and stockpiles to de-risk, raising sourcing costs and compliance burdens for China-linked inputs.

Technology dependence and supply shortages

Despite import-substitution rhetoric, Russia remains dependent on imported high-tech inputs; reports cite China supplying ~90% of microchips, and low self-sufficiency in sectors like high-speed rail (15%) and shipbuilding/energy (30%). This raises operational fragility for industrial projects and suppliers.

US reciprocal tariff deal pending

Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.

Border logistics and bridge uncertainty

U.S. threats to delay the Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge—despite its strategic role in a corridor handling about $126B in truck trade value—add operational risk. Firms should plan for border congestion, routing redundancy, and potential policy-linked disruptions at ports of entry.

Сжатие азиатского спроса на нефть

Риски сокращения импорта Индией и санкционное давление увеличивают скидки на российскую нефть: дисконты ESPO к Brent около $9/барр., Urals — ~$12, а поставки в Индию падали до ~1,3 млн барр./сут. Россия сильнее зависит от Китая.

Taiwan Strait grey-zone supply shocks

Intensifying PLA and coast-guard activity around Taiwan supports a “quarantine” scenario that could disrupt commercial shipping without open war, raising insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and delivery delays. High exposure sectors include electronics, LNG-dependent manufacturing, and time-sensitive components.

Tariff activism and reciprocity rates

Tariffs are being used as a standing policy lever—e.g., a reciprocal 18% rate applied to Indian-origin goods under executive authority—raising import costs, increasing pricing volatility, and incentivizing firms to re-route sourcing, renegotiate contracts, and localize production.

Pemex: deuda, liquidez y socios

Pemex bajó deuda a US$84.500m (‑13,4%) pero Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio ~US$7.000m en 2026‑27 y dependencia fiscal. Emitió MXN$31.500m localmente para vencimientos 2026 y amplía contratos mixtos con privados; riesgo para proveedores y energía industrial.

Liquidity regime and Fed balance sheet

Debate over shrinking the Fed balance sheet versus maintaining ample reserves raises the probability of periodic money-market “jumps,” especially in repo and wholesale funding. Volatility tightens bank liquidity, raises hedging costs, and can propagate to global USD funding and trade finance.

AI Basic Act compliance

South Korea’s AI Basic Act introduces duties for high‑impact AI, human oversight, and labeling of AI-generated content, applying to large domestic and foreign platforms. Cross-border digital services face new governance, localization, and documentation requirements affecting product roadmaps and go‑to‑market.

EU–China trade frictions spillover

France is a key voice backing tougher EU trade defenses, including on China-made EVs; Beijing has signaled potential retaliation such as probes into French wine. Firms should stress-test tariffs, customs delays and reputational exposure across France‑EU‑China supply chains.

Data privacy enforcement escalates

Proposed amendments to the Personal Information Protection Act would expand corporate liability for breaches by shifting burden of proof and toughening penalties. High-profile cases (e.g., Coupang, telecom) increase litigation, remediation, and audit demand across retail, fintech, and cloud supply chains.

Energiepreise, Netzentgelte, Wettbewerb

Hohe Stromkosten und regulatorische Reformen (z.B. Diskussion um Netzentgelte für Einspeiser, Marktmacht großer Erzeuger) beeinflussen Standortentscheidungen. Für energieintensive Branchen steigen Risiko von Volatilität, Investitionsaufschub und Carbon-Leakage, während PPAs und Eigenversorgung attraktiver werden.

Currency resilience and cost pressures

The baht is supported by a current account surplus (~3.1% of GDP) and reserves above US$200bn, but appreciation squeezes exporter margins. Rising labor costs (higher social security contributions) and PM2.5 disruptions add operating risk; hedging and contingency HR planning matter.

Labour market cooling and wage dynamics

Payrolled employment is softening and unemployment has climbed to 5.2%, while private‑sector regular pay growth eased to about 3.4% and public‑sector pay remains higher. For employers, this reshapes recruitment, retention, and automation decisions; for services firms, wage pass‑through and demand remain volatile.

Reforma tributária do IVA dual

A transição do IBS/CBS avança com a instalação do Comitê Gestor do IBS e regulamentação infralegal pendente; implementação plena ocorrerá gradualmente até 2033. Empresas devem preparar sistemas fiscais, precificação e créditos, além de mapear efeitos setoriais e contencioso.

India–US trade pact reset

A new interim India–US trade framework cuts U.S. tariffs to ~18% on many Indian exports while India reduces tariffs and non-tariff barriers for U.S. goods. Companies should reassess rules-of-origin, pricing, market access, and compliance timelines.

Rising electricity cost exposure

A windless cold spell drove Finnish wholesale power prices sharply higher, intensifying scrutiny of energy-hungry data centres. For immersive tech operators, energy hedging, flexible workloads and heat-reuse options become key, affecting total cost of ownership and resilience planning.

Export controls and origin‑laundering scrutiny

The US–Taiwan framework emphasizes tighter critical-technology export controls, enhanced investment review, and prevention of country‑of‑origin laundering. Firms routing China-linked production through Taiwan face higher compliance burdens, licensing risk, and intensified due diligence requirements across supply chains.

EU compliance for XR biometrics

Immersive systems increasingly process eye-tracking and other biometric signals. In Finland, EU AI and data-protection compliance expectations shape product design, data localization and vendor selection, raising assurance costs but improving trust for regulated buyers in defence, healthcare and industry.

استقرار النقد والتضخم والسياسة النقدية

الاحتياطيات سجلت نحو 52.59 مليار دولار بنهاية يناير 2026، مع تباطؤ التضخم إلى قرابة 10–12% واتجاه البنك المركزي لخفض الفائدة 100 نقطة أساس. تحسن الاستقرار يدعم الاستيراد والتمويل، لكن التضخم الشهري المتذبذب يبقي مخاطر التسعير والأجور مرتفعة.

Importers Registry liberalization

Amendments to the importers’ registry law aim to reduce friction by permitting capital payment in convertible currency and easing registration continuity for firms. For foreign investors, this could streamline market entry and compliance, though implementation consistency will be decisive.

Geoeconomic bloc politics with China

US-led ‘economic security’ clubs—especially critical minerals—pressure Australia to align with tariff-enabled frameworks while China remains its largest export market. Firms face higher policy volatility, potential retaliatory trade friction, and the need to diversify routes and customers.

Nearshoring bajo presión competitiva

Aunque el nearshoring sigue atrayendo IED en polos fronterizos, el sector maquilador reporta cancelación de programas IMMEX y pérdida de empleos, con capital migrando a países con incentivos. Cambios laborales/costos y la sustitución de insumos chinos (certificaciones) frenan proyectos.

Domestic tax and cost pressures

Business‑rates reforms are creating sharp distributional effects; Treasury indicated nearly 7,000 retail/hospitality/leisure firms may see bills more than double. Combined with employer cost increases, this lifts operating expenses, pressures margins, and can alter location strategy, pricing, and investment payback periods.