Great Nicobar transshipment megaproject

NGT cleared the ~₹90,000+ crore Great Nicobar plan, including a ₹40,040 crore transshipment port targeting 4+ million TEU by 2028 (up to 16 million). It could reduce reliance on Colombo/Singapore; environmental, social, and ownership restrictions add risk.

Currency management and capital shifts

The yuan has strengthened toward multi‑year highs, but authorities are signaling caution to avoid rapid appreciation. Reports of guidance to curb bank U.S. Treasury exposure align with reserve diversification and yuan internationalization, affecting FX hedging costs, repatriation strategy, and USD funding assumptions.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

China tech controls tightening

Export controls and licensing for advanced AI chips and semiconductor tools are tightening amid enforcement concerns (e.g., alleged diversion/smuggling of Nvidia Blackwell-class chips). Firms selling to China must implement strict KYC, end‑use monitoring, and contingency planning for abrupt rule changes.

Risco fiscal e trajetória da dívida

Gastos federais cresceram 3,37% acima do teto real de 2,5% em 2025 e o déficit primário ficou em 0,43% do PIB; a dívida bruta chegou a 78,7% do PIB, elevando risco-país, câmbio e custo de capital.

AI hardware export surge and tariffs

High-end AI chips and servers are driving trade imbalances and policy attention; the U.S. deficit with Taiwan hit about US$126.9B in Jan–Nov 2025, largely from AI chip imports. Expect tighter reporting, security reviews, and shifting tariff exposure across AI stacks.

Energy insecurity and high costs

Gas storage fell below 30% in early February, with some Bavarian sites near-empty, boosting LNG reliance and price volatility. Elevated energy costs threaten energy‑intensive production, contract pricing, and Germany’s investment appeal versus the US and Asia.

Critical minerals re-shoring push

Canberra is accelerating onshore processing and ‘strategic reserve’ policies for critical minerals, backed by allied frameworks and subsidies. Recent antimony shipments highlight momentum, while lithium refining faces cost pressure. Expect incentives, permitting scrutiny, and partner-linked offtake deals.

Defense localization and offsets

Saudi Arabia is deepening industrial participation requirements, targeting >50% defense-spend localization by 2030 (24.89% by end-2024). World Defense Show 2026 generated 60 arms contracts worth SAR33bn. Foreign suppliers face stronger tech-transfer, local manufacturing, and SME supply-chain obligations.

US tariff-linked investment package

Tokyo and Washington are accelerating a $550bn investment mechanism tied to reduced US tariffs on Japanese exports (notably autos). Projects span LNG, gas power and critical minerals, creating opportunities but adding policy-conditional timing, compliance and clawback risks.

Currency collapse and inflation shock

The rial’s rapid depreciation and high inflation undermine pricing, working capital, and import affordability, driving ad hoc controls and payment delays. Businesses face FX convertibility risk, volatile local demand, and greater reliance on barter, intermediaries, and informal settlement channels.

Energy security via long LNG deals

Japan is locking in multi-decade LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for 3 mtpa from 2028 and potential Mitsui equity in North Field South. This stabilizes fuel supply, but links costs to long-term contract structures and geopolitics.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

Vietnam is moving up the value chain, attracting electronics and semiconductor ecosystems. Bac Ninh hosts 1,140+ Korean projects with US$18.5bn registered capital; 2025 realised FDI reached ~US$27.62bn. Opportunity is strong, but skills shortages and supplier depth constrain localisation.

Maritime security and chokepoints

Iran-linked regional tensions elevate risk around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea routing. Even without closure, seizures, drone incidents, and proxy threats can raise freight and war-risk premiums, extend lead times, and force supply chains to reroute and rebuffer.

ديناميكيات غزة ومعبر رفح

إعادة فتح معبر رفح بشكل محدود وتحت ترتيبات تفتيش ومراقبة مع حصص يومية للحركة يؤثر في تدفقات المساعدات والعمالة واللوجستيات إلى شمال سيناء. أي تصعيد أو تشديد قيود يرفع مخاطر التشغيل للشركات قرب الحدود ويؤخر الإمدادات والمشاريع.

LNG export expansion and permitting

The administration is accelerating LNG export approvals and permitting, supporting long-term contracts with Europe and Asia and stimulating upstream investment. Cheaper, abundant U.S. gas can lower energy-input costs for U.S. manufacturing while tightening global gas markets and shipping capacity.

Currency volatility, hedging and controls

Rupee volatility intensified with tariff shocks, USD/INR swinging toward ~92 before easing near ~90 on trade relief. RBI’s forward positions and reserve mix (gold ~13.6% of ~US$687bn reserves) can cap appreciation, elevating FX hedging costs and treasury policy complexity.

Energy export reorientation to Asia

Russian crude flows are increasingly concentrated in China, India and Türkiye, often sold at deeper discounts amid sanctions pressure. India has reduced buying and may tighten further under US/EU pressure, increasing Russia’s dependence on China and volatility in global oil supply chains.

Weather shocks and Jones Act constraints

Severe freezes can disrupt US oil and gas output (estimates up to 25 Bcf/day), forcing LNG imports despite exporter status; Jones Act limits domestic LNG shipping. International buyers and US-linked supply chains should expect episodic price spikes and logistics bottlenecks.

AUKUS industrial build-out

AUKUS is driving multi-decade defence industrial expansion, including a ~A$30bn Osborne submarine yard and A$3.9bn skills spend. Opportunities rise for suppliers, but US submarine production constraints create delivery uncertainty, complicating long-lead procurement planning.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 1 USMCA review is clouded by Washington’s tariff-first posture and reported withdrawal talk. Even partial rollbacks remain uncertain. Expect higher compliance costs, volatile rules-of-origin, and elevated hedging needs for North American supply chains and investors.

Post-election policy continuity risk

Bhumjaithai’s landslide win improved near-term sentiment, but coalition bargaining and potential reshuffles raise execution risk. Businesses should expect regulatory and budget-timing uncertainty (FY2027 disbursement delays), and prioritize scenario planning for permits, procurement, and public-project pipelines.

Mining push and critical minerals

Saudi is positioning mining as a “third pillar,” citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment frameworks emphasizing transparency and ESG. Opportunities rise in exploration, processing and fertilizer/aluminum chains, while permitting, water use, and ESG scrutiny remain key risks.

توسع الموانئ والممرات اللوجستية

خطة لوجستية وطنية تربط موانئ المتوسط والبحر الأحمر بموانئ جافة ومناطق صناعية عبر سبعة ممرات متعددة الوسائط، مع توسعات أرصفة عميقة بنحو 70 كم. التشغيل التجريبي لمحطة «تحيا مصر 1» بدمياط بطاقة 3.5 مليون TEU يعزز قدرات المناولة وجذب الخطوط.

IMF programme conditionality pressure

Late‑February IMF review will determine release of roughly $1.2bn under the $7bn EFF plus climate-linked RSF funding, tied to tax, energy and governance reforms. Slippage risks delayed disbursements, confidence shocks, and tighter import financing for businesses.

Investor confidence, market governance risks

Kekhawatiran atas arah kebijakan era Prabowo—termasuk peran Danantara, potensi akuisisi aset, dan isu independensi bank sentral—memicu volatilitas pasar, peringatan MSCI, serta outlook Moody’s negatif. Perusahaan multinasional perlu menilai risiko pembiayaan, valuasi aset, serta perubahan aturan free-float dan transparansi pasar.

Ports capacity expansion and logistics resilience

DP World’s London Gateway surpassed 3m TEU in 2025 (+52%), with further all‑electric berths and rail investments underway, strengthening UK container capacity. While positive for importers, shifting freight patterns and carrier rate volatility can still disrupt cost forecasting.

US tariff and NTB squeeze

Washington is threatening to restore 25% tariffs unless Seoul accelerates its trade-investment bill and removes “non‑tariff barriers” spanning digital platform rules, agriculture quarantine, mapping-data transfers, and auto/pharma certification—raising compliance costs and market-access uncertainty for exporters.

Privacy and AI state regulation patchwork

Rapid state-led AI and privacy enforcement—California’s surveillance-pricing sweep, expanding CCPA cybersecurity audits, and new AI transparency/bias rules—creates a fragmented compliance landscape. Multinationals must harmonize data governance, algorithmic accountability, and consumer disclosures across jurisdictions.

Shipbuilding rivalry in LNG boom

Qatar’s planned LNG expansion (77 to 142 mtpa by 2030) could trigger ~70 new LNG carrier orders, intensifying Korea–China competition. Korean yards retain quality advantages, but China is narrowing delivery times—impacting procurement strategies, pricing, and maritime supply chains.

Power surplus, price volatility risk

Weak demand and rising renewables increase periods of low/negative prices and force nuclear output modulation; EDF warns higher maintenance needs and added costs (≈€30m/year) if electrification lags. Volatility affects PPAs, hedging strategies, and industrial competitiveness planning.

Third-country hubs targeted

EU proposals would sanction non-EU ports and facilitators—including Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun—and activate an anti-circumvention tool restricting exports to high-risk jurisdictions (e.g., Kyrgyzstan). Multinationals face expanded due diligence on transshipment, refining, and re-export chains.

Shadow fleet disruption risks

Iran’s oil exports rely on AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and permissive hubs (notably Malaysia). Recent U.S. and Indian interdictions and sanctions increase detention, demurrage, spill, and contract-frustration risk, complicating energy sourcing, chartering, and marine insurance coverage.

Digital and privacy enforcement intensity

France’s CNIL stepped up enforcement, with 2025 sanctions reportedly totaling about €486m, focused on cookies, employee monitoring and data security. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, faster audit cycles, and greater liability for cross‑border data transfers and AI use.

Regulatory Change for Logistics and Retail

Proposed reforms to allow 24-hour online operations and “dawn delivery” for big-box retailers are contested by labor groups over night-work burdens. If adopted, it could intensify last-mile competition, reshape warehousing shifts, and increase compliance exposure around working-time rules.

Aranceles y reglas automotrices

El sector automotriz, altamente integrado con EE. UU., sufre por aranceles y posible endurecimiento de origen. En 2024 EE. UU. compró 2.8 de 4.0 millones de autos hechos en México; las exportaciones cayeron ~3% en 2025 y se perdieron ~60,000 empleos.