Trade reorientation toward United States

US imports from Taiwan hit $24.7B in Dec 2025 versus China $21.1B, while Taiwan’s US trade deficit reached about $147B. AI hardware demand is driving this shift, benefiting exporters but heightening exposure to US policy, audits, and localization demands.

US trade scrutiny and tariffs

Vietnam’s US surplus hit $19B in Jan 2026, with exports up 53% to >$20B and 2025 surplus $178B. Washington alleges Chinese transshipment and has launched Section 301 actions; potential penalties include tariffs up to 40%, heightening compliance and sourcing risks.

Energy market contract tightening

Suppliers withdrew many fixed energy tariffs as wholesale volatility rose; fixed deals fell from 38 to 15 and price ranges increased to about £1,640–£2,194. Businesses face less ability to hedge utility costs, complicating budgeting and pricing strategies.

Tariff regime legal reset

Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a temporary 10–15% Section 122 global levy (150-day limit) and a pivot toward Sections 301/232. Expect volatile landed costs, contract repricing, and litigation-driven refund uncertainty for importers and suppliers.

Missile and drone reconstitution push

Despite strikes, Iran is rebuilding missile/UAV capacity through dispersed production, hardened sites, and procurement networks abroad. OFAC actions highlight machinery and precursor-chemical sourcing. For business, this sustains long-tail regional risk, complicates investment horizons, and keeps air/sea corridors unstable.

Electronics export incentives in flux

Government is considering extending smartphone PLI (“PLI 2.0”) to sustain export momentum amid shifting US tariff regimes and renewed China competition. Continuation would support supply-chain localisation and capex, while policy uncertainty complicates long-term sourcing, contract pricing, and investment timing.

Fiscal volatility and ad‑hoc taxes

Emergency measures—such as a temporary 12% crude export levy and fuel-tax cuts—underscore election-year fiscal volatility. Sudden tax changes can hit margins, pricing, and contract stability for energy, logistics, and consumer sectors, complicating investment underwriting.

Market-stability interventions and capital-market rules

During volatility, authorities used ad-hoc tools—TL-settled FX forwards, suspending one-week repo auctions, and temporary short-selling bans—to stabilize markets. Such measures can reduce liquidity and price discovery, affecting treasury operations, fundraising timing, and cross-border capital planning.

Foreign investment screening intensifies

CFIUS scrutiny and sectoral industrial-policy priorities are raising execution risk for cross-border M&A, minority stakes, and greenfield projects in sensitive technologies and infrastructure. Longer timelines, mitigation agreements, and potential deal abandonments impact capital allocation and market-entry strategies.

Import-standards reform reshapes market access

Israel’s shift toward European-aligned import standards and expanded ‘what’s good for Europe’ pathways can lower barriers for compliant products, increase competition, and change certification workflows. Firms should reassess labeling, testing, and parallel-import strategies as rules phase in.

Ports and logistics continuity

Haifa and other gateways remain strategic chokepoints during conflict, with elevated missile/drone risks and tighter security protocols. Even when operations continue, businesses should plan for congestion, rerouting, and stricter cargo screening affecting import-dependent production.

Lira volatility and inflation

Inflation remains elevated (31.5% y/y in February) and geopolitical shocks have forced tight liquidity; Turkey reportedly spent $12bn defending the lira. FX instability raises pricing risk, working-capital needs, hedging costs, and import affordability for energy and inputs.

State seizures and property insecurity

Nationalizations and forced asset transfers—illustrated by Domodedovo’s seizure and auction—signal heightened political risk. Foreign residency, “strategic” designations, and prosecutorial actions can trigger expropriation, impaired governance, and limited legal recourse, deterring greenfield and M&A investment.

Currency volatility and hot-money

Portfolio outflows of roughly $2–$5bn amid regional conflict pushed the pound to record lows beyond EGP 52/$, increasing FX hedging costs, repricing imports, and raising transfer/pricing risks for multinationals relying on local costs and revenues.

Ports and logistics capacity buildout

Major port expansion plans—such as VOC Port’s ₹15,000 crore outer harbour to add 4 MTPA and handle 18‑metre draft mega-ships—signal improving transshipment and export logistics. Execution and hinterland connectivity will determine realized reductions in turnaround times and shipping costs.

Oil infrastructure as conflict target

Strikes and threats against Kharg Island—handling ~90% of Iran’s crude exports with ~30m bbl storage—highlight concentrated single-point failure. Damage to terminals, pipelines or storage would tighten global supply, spike prices, and disrupt petrochemical feedstocks and shipping schedules.

Export controls and AI chip containment

US export controls on advanced AI semiconductors are tightening amid reports of diversion and alleged China access to restricted chips. Expect greater end-use scrutiny, licensing delays, and expanded controls on cloud, data centers, and AI model-related supply chains affecting global tech operations.

Kalkınma Yolu: Irak bağlantılı tedarik

Irak-Türkiye-Katar-BAE ortak Kalkınma Yolu, Büyük Fav Limanı’ndan Türkiye üzerinden Avrupa’ya kara/demir yolu taşımayı hedefliyor. Tamamlanma ve güvenlik riskleri sürse de, alternatif rota ve depolama/dağıtım yatırımlarına orta vadede ivme verebilir.

CUSMA review and tariff risk

Mandatory 2026 CUSMA/USMCA review and revived U.S. tariff tools (Sections 232/301/122) are the biggest macro uncertainty. Sectoral duties already hit steel, aluminum and autos, threatening integrated North American supply chains, pricing, and capex planning for exporters.

Supply-chain diversification into precision manufacturing

Thailand continues attracting “China-plus-one” investment in high-precision components supporting semiconductors, aerospace and medical devices. Deals such as ADM’s controlling stake in CCS Advance Tech signal capability upgrading, raising opportunities for suppliers but intensifying talent and quality competition.

Geopolitical shock hits trade routes

Middle East escalation and Hormuz disruption are driving war‑risk premia, route diversions and airspace closures, lifting freight, bunker and insurance costs. Turkish exporters report cancellations and border delays, pressuring lead times, working capital and just‑in‑time production planning.

Energy security and grid investment bottlenecks

Rapid build-out of renewables under Contracts for Difference, grid-connection reform and network constraints shape UK power prices and reliability. Energy-intensive industries face volatile costs and connection delays, while investors see opportunities in storage, flexibility services and transmission upgrades.

Shipping reroutes and freight disruption

Regional and Middle East security events are prompting carriers to halt or reroute services, raising freight rates and lead times. Taiwan’s trade-dependent manufacturers should expect episodic container availability constraints and higher buffer inventories, especially for time-sensitive components.

Renewables trade friction, re-routing

US Commerce set preliminary countervailing duties around 125.87% on India-origin solar cells, disrupting a fast-growing export channel. Firms may pivot to using imported cells for India assembly or redirect volumes, reshaping sourcing, margins and project timelines.

Auto transition, supply-chain reshoring

Germany’s auto ecosystem is under strain from slow EV uptake and high domestic costs. Baden‑Württemberg lost 32,450 metal/electrical jobs in 2025; Bosch plans ~13,000 cuts by 2030. Production localization to North America/China pressures suppliers and new investment decisions.

Incertidumbre institucional y clima inversor

Plan México enfrenta debilidad: FDI récord US$41 mil millones a 3T2025, pero solo US$6.5 mil millones fueron proyectos nuevos; confianza empresarial cae y la inversión real desciende. La reforma judicial y riesgos T‑MEC aumentan prima de riesgo y demoras de CAPEX.

Payments regulation in trade diplomacy

USTR scrutiny of Indonesia’s payment rules—tap-to-pay standards and potential expansion of the National Payment Gateway (GPN) to credit cards—creates regulatory risk for fintech, issuers, and merchants. Outcomes could alter fees, routing, interoperability, and data/localisation compliance costs.

Critical minerals industrial policy

Ottawa is deploying multi‑billion‑dollar programs to accelerate critical minerals and infrastructure (e.g., “first/last mile” links, sovereign fund), while firms secure large project financing and offtakes. Opportunity is high, but permitting, processing capacity gaps and geopolitics shape execution risk.

Talent, mobility, and continuity

Prolonged security stress can constrain labor availability, site access, and cross-border mobility for executives and contractors. Firms face higher duty-of-care obligations, increased remote-operation needs, and potential delays in construction, maintenance, and professional services delivery.

Regional security and operating risk

Escalation around Iran, Red Sea threats, and aviation disruptions increase travel, insurance, and duty-of-care costs. While Egypt is not a direct belligerent, heightened regional risk can disrupt tourism, staffing mobility, and project timelines, especially in coastal logistics hubs.

Macro-financing dependence and conditionality

Ukraine secured a new IMF program with an initial $1.5bn tranche under an $8.1bn facility, tied to tax and customs governance reforms. Continued donor flows support stability, but policy conditionality may tighten enforcement, audits, and reporting for importers and investors.

Industrial relations and strike disruption

Union leverage and compliance enforcement are rising across transport, logistics, construction and mining, with threats of coordinated action affecting warehousing and freight networks. Firms should plan for bargaining risk, contingency routing, and supplier resilience as labour costs and stoppage probability increase.

Kredi notu, bankacılık dayanıklılığı

Fitch, çatışma kısa sürerse Türkiye’nin kredi ve bankacılık risklerinin yönetilebilir kaldığını; ancak yüksek petrol fiyatlarının enflasyonu ve dış dengeyi bozabileceğini vurguladı. Bankaların likidite/sermaye tamponları olumlu, fakat şoklar uzarsa yeniden fiyatlama ve refinansman maliyetleri yükselir.

EV and battery policy headwinds

Europe’s proposed local-content rules for government EV procurement may pressure Korea’s export-heavy Hyundai-Kia and component suppliers to localize more production. Battery makers gain limited relief as Chinese batteries remain eligible, intensifying cost, partnership, and capacity-location decisions in Europe.

Russia sanctions divergence compliance

UK insists it will not ease Russia oil sanctions even as US grants temporary relief for cargoes at sea, creating misalignment across regimes. Banks, shippers and traders face higher compliance risk, due‑diligence burden and potential payment/insurance disruptions.

Critical Minerals and Input Security

German industry’s exposure to Chinese-controlled critical inputs (notably rare earths) is now treated as strategic vulnerability. Firms should anticipate tighter due diligence, stockpiling, and multi-sourcing requirements, plus heightened disruption risk if trade disputes trigger export controls or delays.