Critical minerals export leverage

China’s dominance in rare earths and magnet refining (about 70% mining, ~90% processing) increases vulnerability to licensing delays or curbs. US-led “critical minerals bloc” initiatives may accelerate decoupling, raising compliance, sourcing, and price-volatility risks.

Mining regulation and exploration bottlenecks

Mining investment is constrained by slow permitting and regulatory uncertainty. Exploration spend fell to about R781 million in 2024 from R6.2 billion in 2006, and permitting delays reportedly run 18–24 months. This deters greenfield projects, affects critical-mineral supply pipelines.

Commodity Export Competitiveness

South Africa’s strategic mineral and agricultural exports benefit from global rediversification and commodity demand, but are constrained by domestic logistics, policy uncertainty, and rising input costs, impacting trade balances and sectoral investment strategies.

Energy Transition And Renewables Expansion

Khanh Hoa and other provinces are advancing large-scale renewable energy projects, including wind, solar, and nuclear. National policies support the shift to green energy, grid stability, and green hydrogen, enhancing Vietnam’s energy security and export potential in the clean tech sector.

Industrial zones and SCZONE expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone continues upgrading ports and terminals (including new container-handling capacity), positioning Egypt for nearshoring and regional distribution. Benefits include improved clearance and industrial clustering, but investors must assess land allocation terms, utility reliability, and FX-linked input costs.

Trade Diversification and New Markets

With exports to the US and China declining, Germany is actively pursuing trade agreements with India, Mexico, Australia, and the UAE. This diversification aims to reduce reliance on traditional markets, mitigate geopolitical risks, and unlock new growth opportunities for German exporters.

Shadow Fleet and Illicit Trade Networks

Russia’s use of a vast shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions enables continued oil exports but exposes international shipping, insurance, and logistics firms to enforcement actions and compliance risks. Recent Western crackdowns are increasing operational uncertainty for global maritime and trade actors.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin modernizasyonu için çalışmaları hızlandırma sinyali verdi; EIB’nin Türkiye’de operasyonlarına kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. Kapsamın hizmetler, tarım ve kamu alımlarına genişlemesi tedarik zinciri entegrasyonunu güçlendirebilir; takvim belirsiz.

Startup export momentum in deeptech

Finnish startups’ export revenues reportedly exceeded €10bn, reinforcing Finland as a scalable base for XR/simulation software and B2B platforms. For investors, deal flow is improving, though valuations, talent competition, and reliance on EU funding cycles influence entry timing and portfolio strategy.

Human Rights, Sanctions, and Diplomacy

China’s use of sanctions in response to foreign criticism—especially on human rights—remains a diplomatic lever. Recent lifting of sanctions on UK politicians signals selective engagement, but ongoing concerns over governance and rights continue to affect reputational and operational risks.

India–US interim trade reset

A new India–US Interim Agreement framework cuts US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% (from as high as 50%) while India reduces duties on many US industrial and farm goods. Expect shifts in sourcing, pricing, and compliance requirements.

Semiconductor protectionism and reshoring

A targeted 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips, coupled with Section 232 investigations and “tariff offset” concepts, aims to accelerate domestic capacity. Firms face higher component costs, potential broader duties on derivative products, and pressure to localize manufacturing and secure chip inputs.

Rising cyber risk and compliance

La stratégie nationale cybersécurité 2026-2030 répond à un record de 348 000 atteintes en 2025 (+75% en cinq ans). Priorités: formation, sécurisation technologique, préparation de crise, mobilisation du privé et réduction des dépendances, renforçant obligations fournisseurs et audits.

US-Indonesia Trade Deal Transformation

A forthcoming US-Indonesia trade agreement is set to quadruple bilateral trade from $40 billion, lowering tariffs and expanding market access. The deal will reshape supply chains, boost exports, and incentivize foreign direct investment, especially in manufacturing and digital sectors.

Rules-Based Order Fragments Globally

Canadian leadership now openly acknowledges the collapse of the traditional rules-based international order. This fragmentation increases uncertainty for multinational firms, as trade, finance, and supply chains become tools of geopolitical leverage rather than predictable frameworks.

US trade access and AGOA uncertainty

AGOA has been extended only short-term amid strained US–South Africa relations and eligibility scrutiny. Exporters in autos, agriculture and apparel face tariff cliff risk, contract repricing and investment hesitation, while firms may need contingency routing, rules-of-origin checks and market diversification.

Vision 2030 recalibration, capex shift

Saudi Arabia is rescoping and deferring flagship giga-projects as oil revenues tighten, while redirecting capital toward AI, mining, logistics, and advanced manufacturing. This reshapes EPC pipelines, demand forecasts, and counterparty risk for suppliers, lenders, and investors.

Energiepreise und Importabhängigkeit

Deutschlands Wettbewerbsfähigkeit bleibt stark energiepreisgetrieben: Gasversorgung stützt sich auf Norwegen/Niederlande/Belgien, LNG macht rund 10% der Importe aus, davon überwiegend USA. Diversifizierung (u.a. Golfstaaten) und Netzentgelte beeinflussen Standortkosten, Verträge und Investitionsentscheidungen.

Automotive Sector Policy Shifts

The automotive industry is navigating trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a flood of cheap imports, particularly from China. The government is considering tariff adjustments and new energy vehicle policies, with the sector’s future hinging on reform momentum and global market access.

Renewable Energy Policy Uncertainty

Despite record renewable capacity additions, delays in France’s energy roadmap and stalled projects undermine investor confidence and threaten jobs. Continued dependence on imported fossil fuels (70% of energy needs) exposes France to geopolitical shocks and energy price volatility.

Higher-for-longer interest rates

The Federal Reserve is pausing further rate cuts with inflation still pressured partly by tariffs. Elevated funding costs and a stronger risk premium weigh on capex, real estate, and leveraged trade finance, while FX volatility complicates pricing, hedging, and repatriation strategies.

LNG Export Expansion and Permitting Shifts

US LNG capacity is expanding rapidly; Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 4 filing would lift site capacity to ~49 mtpa, while US exports reached ~111 mtpa in 2025. Faster approvals support long‑term supply, but oversupply and policy swings create price and contract‑tenor risk.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

Tech Controls and China Decoupling

U.S.-China technology rivalry continues to constrain semiconductor and AI supply chains via export controls and licensing, while China accelerates substitution. Firms face dual-ecosystem risks, tighter compliance, potential reconfiguration of R&D and manufacturing footprints, and higher costs for advanced computing capacity.

Energy export policy and pricing

US LNG export capacity and permitting decisions influence global gas prices and industrial competitiveness. Any tightening of export approvals or infrastructure constraints can raise volatility for energy-intensive manufacturers abroad, while expanded capacity strengthens US leverage and attracts downstream investment into North America.

Tariff-Driven Supply Chain Reconfiguration

US tariffs have forced businesses to diversify supply chains, reduce inventory holdings, and reconfigure logistics networks. The shift from legacy mega-hubs to intermediate nodes and diversified ports is improving efficiency but increasing operational complexity and costs.

Security and Organized Crime Risks

Persistent insecurity, including theft and extortion, remains a top obstacle for business operations. Nearly half of Mexican firms report crime victimization, leading to higher security costs and operational risks, particularly in key industrial regions outside secure zones like Coahuila.

Gaza Conflict Drives Regional Instability

The ongoing Gaza conflict, including ceasefire violations and humanitarian crises, continues to destabilize Israel’s security environment and regional relations. This volatility disrupts trade, investment, and supply chains, while raising reputational and operational risks for international businesses.

Debt Crisis and Military Economic Dominance

Egypt’s deepening debt crisis is exacerbated by the military’s control of vast financial reserves and key economic sectors, limiting fiscal flexibility, deterring private investment, and complicating IMF negotiations for structural reform and external financing.

Tighter inbound investment screening

CFIUS scrutiny is broadening beyond defense into data-rich and “infrastructure-like” assets, raising execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes. Investors should expect longer timelines, mitigation demands, and valuation discounts for sensitive data, education, and tech targets.

Strategic Energy Dependency on US LNG

Germany’s rapid shift from Russian to US LNG has created a new energy dependency, with 96% of LNG imports now sourced from the US. This exposes German industry to US political leverage, price volatility, and long-term risks to energy sovereignty and cost competitiveness.

Macroeconomic Reform and Privatization Drive

Egypt is accelerating economic reforms, including privatization and reducing state economic involvement, to attract foreign investment. The government aims for over 70% private sector investment by 2030, supported by IMF-backed policies, improved credit ratings, and targeted sector incentives.

Industrial Policy and Electricity Pricing

High electricity costs have led to smelter closures and job losses in energy-intensive industries. Recent tariff relief for ferrochrome producers highlights the urgent need for a sustainable, competitive electricity pricing policy to prevent deindustrialization and protect employment.

Supply Chain Regionalization and Diversification

Geopolitical polarization and rising tariffs are accelerating the shift toward regionalized and diversified supply chains. Companies are prioritizing resilience, flexibility, and scenario planning over cost efficiency, with Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America emerging as alternative hubs.

Macro volatility: rates, inflation, peso

Banxico paused its easing cycle, holding the policy rate at 7% amid higher inflation forecasts and trade-tension risks. Higher financing costs and exchange-rate swings affect working capital, hedging and pricing, particularly for import-dependent industries and USD-linked contracts.

Fiscal consolidation and tax changes

War-related spending lifted debt and deficit pressures, prompting IMF calls for faster consolidation and potential VAT/income tax hikes. Businesses should expect tighter budgets, shifting incentives, and possible demand impacts, while monitoring sovereign financing conditions and government procurement.