Balochistan security threatens projects

Militant violence in Balochistan is disrupting logistics and deterring FDI, including audits and security redesigns around the $7bn Reko Diq project. Attacks on rail and highways raise insurance, security and schedule costs for mining, energy, and corridor-linked supply chains.

Financial fragmentation and crypto rails

Russia-linked actors are expanding alternative payment channels, including ruble-linked crypto instruments and third-country gateways, while EU/UK target crypto platforms to close circumvention. For businesses, settlement risk rises: blocked transfers, enhanced KYC/AML scrutiny, and sudden counterparty de-risking by banks and exchanges.

Energia e sanções: diesel russo

Importações de diesel russo voltaram a crescer (média 151 kbpd em janeiro), atraídas por descontos e restrições de mercado da Rússia. Empresas enfrentam risco reputacional e de compliance, além de incerteza comercial com EUA e volatilidade de oferta.

Central bank independence concerns, rupiah

Parliament confirmed President Prabowo’s nephew to Bank Indonesia’s board after rupiah hit a record low near 16,985/USD. Perceived politicization can raise risk premia, FX hedging costs, and volatility for importers, exporters, and foreign investors pricing IDR exposure and local debt.

Ciclo de juros e inflação

Com Selic em 15% e inflação em 12 meses perto de 4,44% (abaixo do teto de 4,5%), o mercado precifica início de cortes em março, possivelmente 50 bps. Isso afeta custo de capital, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e valuations.

EU customs union modernization push

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 customs union, while business groups press for progress and visa facilitation. Potential updates could broaden sector coverage and ease frictions, materially benefiting manufacturers, logistics, and EU-facing investment cases.

Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity Initiatives

Japan is accelerating digital transformation, highlighted by advanced AI, biometric security, and expanded cyber defense partnerships with allies. These initiatives enhance operational efficiency and security for international firms, but require adaptation to evolving regulatory and technological standards.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and FTA Utilization

Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with the US and India, create uncertainty for exporters. Only 54% of eligible Thai exporters use FTA benefits, prompting government efforts to streamline certification, diversify markets, and expand mutual recognition agreements to enhance trade resilience.

AUKUS industrial expansion and controls

AUKUS submarine construction investment at Osborne is scaling defence manufacturing, workforce and secure supply chains. Businesses may see new contracts but also tighter export controls, security vetting, cyber requirements and supply assurance obligations across dual-use technologies and components.

Digital infrastructure and data centers

A proposed 20-year tax holiday plus GST/input relief aims to attract foreign data-center and cloud investment, targeting fivefold capacity growth to 8GW by 2030. Multinationals face opportunities in AI/5G ecosystems alongside evolving localization, energy and permitting constraints.

FX volatility and yen defense

Yen weakness and intervention signalling (rate checks, possible US coordination) heighten hedging costs and pricing uncertainty for importers/exporters. Policy risk rises around election-driven fiscal expectations, complicating repatriation, procurement contracts, and Japan-based treasury management.

FDI Attraction And Industrial Ecosystems

Vietnam ranks among the world’s top 15 FDI destinations, leveraging administrative reform, ESG-compliant infrastructure, and integrated industrial parks. Enhanced support services and financial incentives are driving sustainable industrial development and long-term investor retention.

Reciprocal tariffs and dealmaking

The U.S. is using “reciprocal” tariffs and partner-specific deals to reshape market access. Recent U.S.–India terms set an 18% reciprocal rate, while U.S.–Taiwan caps most tariffs at 15%, shifting sourcing, pricing, and contract risk for exporters.

Security, vandalism and criminality risks

Persistent cable theft and rail vandalism raise insurance, security and maintenance costs and deter private participation in logistics. Broader crime elevates risk for warehousing, trucking and staff mobility, requiring fortified facilities, vetted contractors and robust business-continuity planning.

China’s Strategic Export Controls

China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and technology, targeting entire supply chains. These measures, often ambiguous and reactive, create uncertainty for global manufacturers and heighten the risk of supply disruptions in sectors such as electronics, EVs, and renewable energy.

Electricity reform and tariff shock

Eskom restructuring remains contested, but Ramaphosa reaffirmed an independent transmission entity and 2026 transmission tenders. Meanwhile Nersa-approved hikes of ~8.8% in 2026/27 and 2027/28 raise input costs, affecting energy-intensive industry, pricing and investment.

India–US tariff reset framework

Interim trade framework cuts U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% (from up to 50%), links outcomes to rules of origin, standards and non-tariff barriers, and flags $500bn prospective purchases. Export pricing, contracting and compliance planning shift immediately.

Frozen assets, litigation, retaliation risk

Debate over using immobilized Russian sovereign assets to back Ukraine financing is intensifying, alongside Russia’s lawsuits against Euroclear seeking about $232bn. Businesses face heightened expropriation/retaliation risk, asset freezes, and legal uncertainty for custodial holdings, claims, and arbitration enforceability.

Aggressive antitrust and M&A scrutiny

FTC/DOJ enforcement remains assertive, with close review of platform, AI, and “acquihire” deals plus tougher merger analysis. Cross-border buyers face longer timelines, higher remedy demands, and greater deal-break risk, affecting investment planning, partnerships, and exit strategies.

EU Trade Policy Realignment and Protectionism

Germany is navigating shifting EU trade policies, including new deals with India and Mercosur, and stricter rules on public funding for non-European production. Rising protectionism and regulatory changes could alter market access, supply chain strategies, and compliance costs for multinationals.

Macroeconomic strain and FX pressure

Logistics disruptions and energy damage are weighing on growth and export receipts. The central bank cut the policy rate to 15% as inflation eased, but expects renewed price pressure and slower disinflation; port attacks may reduce Q1 export earnings by roughly $1 billion, stressing FX markets.

Падение нефтегазовых доходов

Доходы бюджета от нефти и газа снижаются: в январе 2026 — 393 млрд руб. против 587 млрд в декабре и 1,12 трлн годом ранее; в 2025 падение на 24% до 8,5 трлн руб. Это усиливает налоговое давление и бюджетные риски.

Escalating Sanctions Disrupt Trade Flows

Intensified US and EU sanctions, including on shipping, oil, and digital assets, severely restrict Iran’s access to global markets. These measures complicate cross-border transactions, increase compliance risks, and force businesses to navigate opaque networks, raising operational and reputational risks.

Energy transition, nuclear restart optionality

Japan’s decarbonisation path remains hybrid: renewables growth alongside potential nuclear restarts and new flexibility markets. This uncertainty affects long-term power pricing, siting of energy-intensive assets, and PPAs; it also shapes LNG demand forecasts and contract flexibility requirements for utilities and traders.

E-Commerce and Logistics Transformation

South Korea’s logistics and third-party logistics (3PL) markets are expanding rapidly, fueled by e-commerce growth, technology adoption, and sustainability efforts. The market is projected to reach $41.7 billion by 2033, with trends toward omnichannel logistics, customized solutions, and green practices shaping operational strategies.

U.S. tariff snapback risk

Washington threatens restoring “reciprocal” tariffs to 25% from 15% if Seoul’s trade-deal legislation and non‑tariff barrier talks stall. Autos, pharma, lumber and broad exports face margin shocks, contract repricing, and accelerated U.S. localization decisions.

Green hydrogen export corridors

Saudi green hydrogen is moving from ambition to execution. ACWA’s Yanbu green hydrogen/ammonia hub targets FEED completion by mid‑2026 and operations in 2030, alongside plans for a Germany ammonia corridor. This creates long-lead opportunities in EPC, shipping, storage, and offtake contracting.

EU market access and GSP+ scrutiny

Pakistan’s duty-free access under EU GSP+ (extended to 2027) is pivotal for textiles and apparel, but remains linked to 27 conventions and rights monitoring. Any compliance slippage or preference erosion would raise landed costs and disrupt buyer sourcing decisions.

Fiscal activism and policy uncertainty

Snap election dynamics and proposed tax/spending shifts are raising fiscal-risk scrutiny for Japan’s high-debt sovereign, influencing rates, infrastructure budgets and public procurement. For investors, this can move funding costs, affect stimulus-linked sectors, and increase scenario-planning needs around policy reversals.

Weak growth and deindustrialisation

Germany’s economy remains stuck near 2019 output with private investment down ~11% since 2019 and unemployment above 3 million. Persistent cost, regulation and infrastructure constraints are pressuring manufacturing footprint decisions, supplier stability and demand forecasts.

Weak growth, high household debt

Thailand’s growth outlook remains subdued (around 1.6–2% in 2026; ~2% projected by officials), constrained by tight credit and household debt near 86.8% of GDP (higher including informal debt). This depresses domestic demand, raises NPL risk, and limits pricing power.

Logistics and customs modernization push

Indonesia continues efforts to streamline trade via the National Logistics Ecosystem and single-window integrations across agencies. Progress can reduce dwell time and compliance burden, but uneven implementation across ports and provinces still creates routing risk, delays, and higher inventory buffers.

Halal certification mandate October 2026

Indonesia will enforce a broad “mandatory halal” regime from October 2026, and authorities are accelerating certification for SMEs and market traders. Importers and FMCG, pharma, and cosmetics firms must adjust labeling, ingredient traceability, audits, and supply-chain documentation to avoid disruption.

Compliance Costs and ESG Barriers in EU Trade

While the EU FTA offers tariff-free access, Indian exporters face high compliance costs from the EU’s carbon border tax and ESG standards. These non-tariff barriers could offset gains, especially for steel, aluminum, and emission-intensive sectors, requiring strategic adaptation by businesses.

Energy Security and Long-Term LNG Deals

Japan secured a 27-year LNG supply agreement with Qatar, ensuring stable energy for power generation and industrial growth. This move supports Japan’s energy transition and mitigates risks from volatile global markets, benefiting sectors like data centers and advanced manufacturing.

Minerais críticos e competição geopolítica

EUA e UE intensificam acordos para grafite, níquel, nióbio e terras raras; a Serra Verde recebeu financiamento dos EUA de US$ 565 milhões. Oportunidades em mineração e refino convivem com exigências ESG, licenciamento e risco de dependência de compradores.