Climate and Infrastructure Resilience

Under the IMF’s resilience facility, Pakistan is advancing disaster-risk financing and integrating climate considerations into budgeting and investment planning. This should support adaptation spending over time, but near-term businesses must still price in flood, heat and infrastructure disruption risks.

LNG and Energy Export Expansion

Canada is pushing major energy export projects, highlighted by a proposed C$10 billion Ksi Lisims LNG facility and a one-million-tonne annual supply deal for Germany. This supports export diversification, but permitting, Indigenous consent, and environmental litigation remain material risks.

Overseas Expansion Cost Pressures

TSMC’s record growth reflects strong AI demand, yet its global factory expansion is fueling concern over costs, margins, and workforce tensions. For investors and suppliers, overseas capacity buildout improves resilience but may dilute profitability and alter procurement, localization, and capital-allocation decisions.

Japan-China Diplomatic Frictions

Tokyo and Beijing have reopened limited dialogue, yet tensions over Taiwan remarks, citizen safety, and trade restrictions persist. Businesses face elevated geopolitical risk around regulatory retaliation, market access, and supplier concentration, especially in sectors exposed to China-dependent inputs or regional sales.

Tourism Recovery Supports FX

Tourism is recovering strongly, with about 19 million visitors last year and 6.1 million in the first four months of 2026. Strong occupancy in Sinai and policy support for airlines help sustain foreign-exchange earnings, though regional conflict remains a material downside risk.

Nuclear Dispute Drives Risk Premium

Iran’s unresolved nuclear file remains central to sanctions, diplomacy, and military escalation risk. With around 972 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% cited in reporting, uncertainty over enrichment and stockpile disposal sustains geopolitical risk premiums affecting investment timing, insurance, and regional exposure decisions.

Section 301 Tariff Exposure

Fresh US Section 301 actions create meaningful downside risk for Indian exporters, with proposed additional duties of 10% to 12.5% tied to forced-labour findings. This raises compliance, reputational and cost pressures across textiles, chemicals, autos, metals, healthcare, and other trade-exposed sectors.

Policy Support for Investment

Despite near-term volatility, Ankara is signaling continued support for longer-term capital inflows. Officials highlighted annualized foreign direct investment of $12.6 billion and a new investment incentive package under parliamentary discussion, potentially benefiting manufacturing, green transition projects, and value-added production.

Ports, Rail And Export Bottlenecks

South Africa’s persistent logistics weaknesses continue to constrain mining, agriculture and manufactured exports, even as government prioritises transport investment. Ongoing rail inefficiencies, port congestion and municipal service failures increase freight costs, delay shipments and weaken supply-chain resilience for international traders.

US-China Managed Trade Friction

Washington and Beijing have stabilized ties only superficially through new trade and investment boards, while tariffs, Section 301 risk, export controls, and rare-earth leverage remain unresolved. Firms should expect continued managed friction rather than normalization across bilateral trade and supply chains.

Chinese Dependence and Asymmetry

Russia’s trade model is becoming structurally dependent on China for imports, payments, vehicles, machinery, and energy demand. This concentration reduces diversification, increases Beijing’s leverage, and raises strategic exposure for firms linked to Russia-facing supply chains or yuan-based settlement channels.

Political Volatility Before Elections

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s electoral positioning and coalition pressures are influencing Gaza policy and diplomacy, increasing policy unpredictability. Businesses face a more volatile operating environment as security decisions, budget priorities, and regulatory attention can shift quickly ahead of the expected September election timetable.

IMF Reform And Austerity

Egypt’s seventh IMF review could unlock about $1.6 billion, but continued support is tied to subsidy cuts, fiscal discipline, exchange-rate flexibility, and fuel-pricing reforms. Businesses should expect further cost pass-through, regulatory adjustments, and tighter domestic demand conditions.

Security and Logistics Reliability

Security concerns around Chinese investment, CPEC assets, and sensitive corridors such as Gwadar and Balochistan continue to affect investor sentiment and logistics planning. Persistent protection costs, disruption risks, and uneven infrastructure performance raise insurance, transport, and contingency expenses for international operators.

Mining Fiscal Burden Rising

Indonesia is pursuing higher state take from minerals through royalty revisions, benchmark price changes, and discussion of export levies. Even where increases are delayed, the direction is clear: higher fiscal extraction from mining could reshape project returns, supplier contracts, and investment timing.

State Export Control Tightens

Indonesia is centralizing exports of palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, with reporting starting June 2026 and full rollout by January 2027. The shift may improve transparency, but raises execution, compliance, and counterparty risks for traders.

Inflation Spurs Hawkish Policy

Rising oil prices and stronger chip-led growth are pushing inflation higher, with April consumer inflation at 2.6% and KDI forecasting 2.7% for 2026. Expectations of Bank of Korea tightening are lifting yields and borrowing costs, affecting valuations and capital expenditure decisions.

Weak Business Activity Signals

Business confidence remains subdued at 94, below the long-term average, while private-sector activity has seen its sharpest drop in over five years. Stagnant output, softer consumption, weaker investment and higher unemployment point to a more fragile operating environment for market-entry and expansion decisions.

Deforestation-linked trade exposure

Illegal deforestation remains part of the US trade complaint and continues to shape market access risks. Agribusiness, food exporters, and commodity traders face tighter due diligence, reputational scrutiny, and possible restrictions tied to environmental enforcement and supply-chain traceability.

Rail And Border Logistics Strain

With maritime routes contested, rail remains indispensable for exports, imports and evacuation traffic. More than 300 locomotives have been damaged or destroyed, and Ukraine estimates it needs about 100 electric locomotives, highlighting persistent inland logistics bottlenecks and transport asset shortages.

China-US Balancing Strategy

President Lee’s pragmatic balancing between the United States, China and Japan supports commercial flexibility in a polarized region. However, firms still face strategic ambiguity as Seoul seeks economic cooperation with Beijing while preserving US alliance commitments and tighter trilateral coordination with Tokyo.

Industrial Policy Stays Interventionist

The trade ministry’s R130.6 billion medium-term budget supports localisation, green industrialisation and procurement-led development. International companies may find incentives in priority sectors, but tariff activism, transformation requirements and state coordination gaps can complicate market-entry and sourcing strategies.

China Exposure and De-risking Dilemma

German companies remain deeply exposed to China for sales, sourcing, and critical raw materials. While 61% of surveyed firms plan higher China investment, many report damage from US-China and EU-China trade tensions, export controls, and elevated logistics costs linked to regional conflict.

EU Market Access Becomes Tougher

The Mercosur-EU opening is already being tested by European restrictions on Brazilian beef over sanitary and traceability concerns. With potential losses above US$2 billion, agrifood exporters face stricter certification demands, greater regulatory asymmetry and a higher risk of politically driven market-access interruptions.

EU-Linked Reforms Reshape Market

Access to European financing is tied to tax, customs, anti-corruption and rule-of-law reforms. Ukraine has completed 86 Ukraine Plan steps and is implementing 65 more, creating a more transparent business environment but also raising short-term compliance, taxation and legislative adjustment costs.

Foreign Investor Confidence Test

Trade friction with the United States is chilling some investment decisions even as Canada courts global capital in New York and elsewhere. Investors will watch whether policy support, market diversification, and strategic sectors can offset tariff uncertainty, slower growth, and higher operational risk.

US Tariffs and AUKUS Uncertainty

US tariffs now apply a 10% baseline on Australian imports and 50% on steel and aluminium, while Washington’s AUKUS review clouds defence procurement. The combination raises export costs, complicates industrial planning, and heightens policy uncertainty for suppliers tied to transpacific trade.

Moderate Growth, Selective Opportunities

Consensus forecasts put Brazil’s GDP growth near 1.85% in 2026 and 1.76% in 2027, signaling a slower expansion backdrop. Businesses should expect uneven domestic demand, tighter capital allocation, and stronger returns only in export-linked, infrastructure, and regulated sectors with structural tailwinds.

Gaza War Security Overhang

Israel’s stalled Gaza ceasefire remains the dominant business risk, with military control reportedly expanding from 53% to 60% and targeted at 70%. Persistent conflict raises insurance, logistics, labor-mobility and reputational costs for investors, suppliers, shipping and regional counterparties.

Deepening Dependence on China

Russia’s trade, technology, and payments systems are becoming heavily dependent on China. More than 99% of bilateral trade is settled in rubles and yuan, while Chinese suppliers dominate machinery and sanctioned technology imports, increasing concentration risk and Beijing’s leverage over Russian business conditions.

Administrative Reform Execution Risks

Vietnam is pursuing sweeping state restructuring, including ministry consolidation, provincial reorganization, and major civil-service cuts. While intended to speed decisions and improve the investment climate, the transition has already disrupted enforcement, approvals, and coordination, creating near-term regulatory and operational uncertainty for businesses.

Disinflation Amid Tight Policy

Turkey’s annual inflation slowed to 32.61% in May, but pricing pressures remain elevated and sensitive to energy volatility. High rates, fiscal restraint and lira management still shape financing costs, demand conditions, contract pricing and investment timing for foreign firms.

Chinese FDI Rules Partly Eased

India’s Press Note 2 shifts from blanket restrictions toward risk-based screening for Chinese and other land-border-country investment, allowing some non-controlling stakes through the automatic route. The move could support technology, electronics, infrastructure and clean-energy capacity, while preserving security screening on control-related deals.

Administrative Reform Execution Risks

The government is centralizing power while overhauling the state apparatus, including major territorial consolidation and civil service cuts. These reforms may improve long-term efficiency, but near-term disruptions to licensing, approvals, enforcement, and local implementation could complicate market entry and project execution.

Electronics Export and Rewiring

Exports remain a bright spot, with March shipments up 18.7% year on year to $35.16 billion, led by electronics, AI-related products and data-centre equipment. Thailand is benefiting from supply-chain diversification, strengthening its role in regional electronics, PCB and component manufacturing.

Critical Minerals Financing Push

Government-backed funding and policy support are accelerating rare earths and battery-materials projects, including A$200 million for Arafura’s Nolans development. This strengthens Australia’s role in non-China supply chains, though financing gaps, volatile prices and processing competitiveness still constrain project delivery.