Strategic Diversification Away from U.S. Dependence

Canada is actively seeking to double non-U.S. exports by 2035, driven by repeated U.S. tariffs and trade unpredictability. This diversification strategy is reshaping investment priorities, market access, and supply chain decisions for Canadian and international firms operating in the country.

Private Sector Expansion and Economic Reform

Egypt aims for the private sector to account for over 70% of total investment by 2030, up from 65% currently. Structural reforms focus on limiting state spending, enhancing transparency, and fostering a competitive business environment for international investors.

Intellectual Property Enforcement And Innovation

Vietnam is strengthening IP rights enforcement through new decrees, technological solutions, and international cooperation. Enhanced protection of intellectual property fosters a transparent business environment, boosts investor confidence, and supports the country’s innovation-driven growth.

Mining Sector Pressures and Logistics

Mining output declined 2.7% in late 2025 due to falling coal and iron ore production, rising costs, and logistical constraints. Global trade tensions, especially with the US and China, further threaten export volumes and investor confidence in this critical sector.

EU Strategic Autonomy and Trade Defense

France is advocating for stronger EU trade defense tools, including the activation of the anti-coercion instrument, to counteract US and Chinese economic pressure. This shift toward strategic autonomy could reshape investment, procurement, and regulatory environments for international companies.

Innovation Drive and Industrial Upgrading

Despite headwinds, China continues to invest in AI, green energy, and advanced manufacturing. The government’s focus on innovation and technological self-reliance aims to move up the value chain and sustain competitiveness, but faces challenges from external restrictions and internal imbalances.

US-Korea Alliance and Security Realignment

The evolving US-Korea alliance, shaped by Trump’s ‘America First’ policies, includes renegotiated defense cost-sharing, operational control, and military modernization. Shifts in USFK posture and nuclear submarine projects affect regional security and business risk assessments.

Infrastructure and Construction Safety Risks

Major infrastructure projects face delays due to safety incidents and regulatory scrutiny, as seen in the recent halting of 14 construction projects after crane accidents. Such disruptions affect supply chains, logistics, and investor confidence in Thailand’s project delivery capacity.

EU Energy Decoupling and Bans

The EU has legislated a full ban on Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports by 2027, with plans to phase out Russian oil as well. This structural decoupling will reshape European energy markets, accelerate diversification, and impact global energy flows, with significant implications for Russian revenues and EU supply chains.

Challenging Investment Climate and M&A

Brazil’s investment environment is marked by high interest rates, fiscal constraints, and political polarization. M&A activity remains subdued, but the Mercosur-EU agreement and foreign interest in mining, energy, and technology sectors could stimulate strategic investments and sectoral shifts.

Syria Policy and Regional Security Risks

Turkey’s evolving Syria strategy, focused on eliminating YPG/PKK influence and supporting Syrian state control, aims to stabilize its southern border. While this may improve regional security and trade, ongoing tensions and humanitarian concerns pose risks for cross-border operations and investor confidence.

Saudi Aramco’s Global Investment Drive

Aramco continues to secure international partnerships and invest in energy diversification, influencing global supply chains and capital flows. Its strategic moves, including stake acquisitions and cross-border ventures, impact energy markets and related industries worldwide.

Slow Progress on Energy Transition

Despite ambitious targets, France’s decarbonization rate slowed to 1.6% in 2025, far below the 4.6% annual reduction needed for 2030 goals. Dependence on fossil fuels and policy delays increase regulatory and reputational risks for energy-intensive industries.

Collapse of Food and Commodity Trade

Iran’s economic turmoil and new U.S. tariffs have severely disrupted food and commodity imports and exports, notably India’s basmati rice trade. Payment delays, shipment cancellations, and rising costs are undermining established supply chains and market confidence.

Energy and Critical Minerals Cooperation with Asia

Recent agreements with China are expanding Canadian oil, LNG, uranium, and clean energy exports to Asia. This diversification of energy partnerships supports Canada’s energy transition but raises questions about foreign investment screening and national security in strategic sectors.

Energy Transition and LNG Import Surge

Egypt is rapidly expanding renewable energy projects, signing $1.8 billion in deals with Norway and China. However, domestic gas production decline and regional supply disruptions have turned Egypt into a major LNG importer, raising costs and supply chain complexity.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and EU-Mercosur Tensions

Strong domestic opposition to the EU-Mercosur trade deal, especially from French farmers and parliament, has led to protests and political crises. This uncertainty affects market access, supply chains, and investment strategies for global agribusiness and exporters.

US Tariff Pressures and Policy Shifts

A proposed US bill seeks a 15% tariff on imports from countries with trade deficits, including Mexico. Ongoing legal debates and potential new tariffs raise risks for Mexican exports, particularly in automotive and manufacturing, threatening Mexico’s competitive advantage under USMCA.

US-China Trade Tensions Escalate

Renewed tariff threats and secondary sanctions on China, especially over Iranian oil, have reignited US-China trade tensions. US imports from China dropped 28% and exports fell 38% in 2025, disrupting global supply chains and prompting sourcing shifts to Southeast Asia.

Semiconductor and Technology Sector Push

Vietnam is prioritizing the development of its semiconductor and technology industries, including chip fabrication and critical minerals processing. Collaboration with the EU and other partners aims to move Vietnam up the value chain, supporting high-tech investment and innovation ecosystems.

Geopolitical Shifts and Regional Integration

Turkey's strategic location is increasingly pivotal amid shifting global alliances, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and EU enlargement debates. Ankara's foreign policy emphasizes regional cooperation, energy corridors, and mediation roles, affecting supply chains and cross-border investments.

UK-EU Relations and Strategic Realignment

Brexit’s legacy continues to shape UK-EU cooperation. Recent US protectionism and security concerns are prompting renewed dialogue and potential closer alignment, as both sides seek stability and leverage in an increasingly fragmented global trading system.

Strained UK-EU-US Trade Agreements

The tariff dispute endangers the recently negotiated US-EU and UK-US trade agreements. The EU may suspend ratification, and uncertainty over future market access is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring, undermining long-term strategic planning for UK-based multinationals.

Reshoring and Supply Chain Realignment

US policy emphasizes domestic manufacturing and supply chain security, particularly in semiconductors and advanced industries. Major incentives and trade agreements are accelerating reshoring, prompting global companies to reconsider production footprints and invest in US-based operations.

Supply Chain Disruptions and Humanitarian Restrictions

Israeli restrictions on aid organizations and border crossings, especially at Rafah, have disrupted humanitarian flows and supply chains. New registration requirements and ongoing security measures complicate logistics for international businesses and NGOs, raising operational and reputational risks.

Energy Security and Nuclear Revival

Japan has restarted the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant, boosting energy self-sufficiency and emissions targets. This move, amid regional security tensions, signals a shift toward stable domestic energy sources and reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports, affecting industrial competitiveness.

Tightening Technology and Export Controls

China has expanded export controls on critical minerals and high technology, mirroring US restrictions. These measures increase compliance risks for foreign firms, disrupt global supply chains, and reinforce China’s leverage in strategic sectors like rare earths and advanced manufacturing.

Labor Market Softness and Restructuring

US job growth remains sluggish, with the lowest gains outside recession years and a 4.4% unemployment rate. Tariffs and high interest rates have contributed to weak hiring, prompting the Fed to cut rates. Labor market fragility poses risks for consumer demand and business operations.

Critical Minerals Strategy Targets Europe

Russia invests $9 billion to expand rare earth mineral production, aiming to control 10% of global supply by 2030. This strategy leverages Europe’s dependence on Chinese minerals, offering Russia new geopolitical influence but facing technological and sanctions barriers for foreign investors.

Japan-China Relations and Geopolitical Tensions

Japan’s hardening stance on Taiwan and maritime disputes in the East China Sea have strained relations with China, resulting in economic retaliation and heightened security risks. These tensions complicate trade, investment, and supply chain operations for international businesses with exposure to both markets.

Renewable Energy Expansion and Export Plans

Eskom is expanding its renewable energy portfolio, aiming to integrate nuclear and gas by 2030 and sell excess capacity to neighboring countries. This transition supports industrialization, energy security, and new export opportunities for South African businesses.

Escalating US-China Trade Tensions

US-China trade has contracted sharply, with US imports from China down 28% and exports down 38% in 2025. Tariffs and retaliatory measures have shifted supply chains toward Southeast Asia, increasing costs and uncertainty for global businesses.

Tariffs, Trade Tensions, and Supply Chain Realignment

The US continues to escalate tariffs, notably on South Korea, Taiwan, and Canada, as part of an 'America First' industrial policy. Recent deals require massive foreign investment in US manufacturing in exchange for tariff relief, with Taiwan and South Korea pledging over $600 billion. These policies are pressuring global supply chains to relocate to the US, but also driving allies and rivals to diversify away from American markets, increasing long-term uncertainty for international business operations.

Belt and Road Initiative’s Strategic Pivot

In 2025, China signed a record $213.5 billion in new Belt and Road deals, focusing on energy, mining, and infrastructure, especially in Africa and Central Asia. The initiative now emphasizes both renewables and fossil fuels, raising both opportunity and ESG risk for global investors.

Critical Minerals And Semiconductor Supply Chains

Vietnam is deepening partnerships with the EU and other global actors to develop its rare earths, tungsten, and semiconductor sectors. These efforts aim to diversify supply chains, reduce dependence on China, and position Vietnam as a key node in global technology manufacturing.

US-China Trade Realignment Intensifies

US-China trade contracted sharply in 2025, with US imports from China down 28% and exports falling 38%. Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and Thailand, gained market share. This realignment is reshaping global supply chains, increasing costs and uncertainty for international businesses.