Trade Deal Rewires Access

India’s 2026 trade push, including the EU FTA and lower U.S. reciprocal tariffs, materially improves export access and sourcing economics. Duty elimination across 70.4% of tariff lines reshapes market-entry planning, manufacturing location decisions, and supply-chain diversification for multinationals.

Rusya yaptırımları uyum riski

AB/ABD yaptırımlarının çevresinden dolaşımına dair incelemeler sürüyor; araştırmalar Türkiye’de ~300 firmanın Rus savunma zincirine dolaylı tedarikte göründüğünü öne sürüyor. İkincil yaptırım, bankacılık muhabirlikleri, ihracat lisansları ve itibar riski nedeniyle uyum maliyetleri artabilir.

BOJ Tightening And Yen Volatility

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but signaled further hikes remain possible. With markets assigning meaningful odds to an April move and the yen near 159 per dollar, firms face rising hedging, financing and cross-border pricing risks.

Semiconductor Export Control Tightening

A US$2.5 billion Supermicro-related smuggling case exposed Taiwan’s weak penalties for illegal chip flows to China. Likely regulatory tightening will raise compliance costs, screening, and due-diligence requirements for semiconductor, server, logistics, and re-export businesses operating through Taiwan.

Sanctions regime volatility and enforcement

Debates in the US and EU over easing Russia energy sanctions, plus Hungarian/Slovak veto threats, create uncertainty for compliance, payments, and maritime services. Firms trading in energy, shipping, or dual-use goods must prepare for rapid rule changes and heightened due diligence.

LNG Diversification Accelerates Procurement

Taiwan has secured near-term LNG cargoes and is diversifying supplies across 14 countries, with more non-Middle East volumes from June. This reduces immediate disruption risk, but intensifies competition for spot cargoes, raises procurement costs and influences energy-intensive investment decisions.

Agriculture Access Still Constrained

While the EU pact expands quotas for beef, sheep meat, sugar, dairy and other farm exports, producers remain dissatisfied. Beef access rises to 30,600 tonnes over ten years, but quotas remain restrictive, limiting upside for agribusiness exporters and related cold-chain logistics providers.

Regional security integration with partners

Australia is deepening defence and logistics coordination with New Zealand and other partners, aligning readiness concepts, procurement and co-production. This reinforces Indo-Pacific operating standards, increases demand for interoperable systems, and may affect compliance, workforce clearances, and cross-border contracting for suppliers.

Security Risks to Corridors

Attacks and instability in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continue to threaten logistics corridors, Chinese personnel and strategic infrastructure. These risks directly affect CPEC execution, insurance costs, project timelines and investor confidence, particularly in mining, transport, energy and western-route supply chains.

US tariff uncertainty, investment pledge

Washington signaled tariffs could revert from 15% to 25% if Seoul’s legislature delays implementation of the Korea–US deal tied to a $350bn investment pledge. Firms face price volatility, rushed localization decisions, and heightened exposure to US non-tariff complaints.

Manufacturing slump and weak demand

January factory orders fell 11.1% month‑on‑month and industrial production declined 0.5%, underscoring fragile recovery. Domestic orders dropped 16.2% and foreign 7.1%, raising risks for exporters, suppliers and investors reliant on Germany’s industrial cycle and capex plans.

USMCA review and Mexico routing

US–Mexico talks for the USMCA six‑year review are opening amid pressure to tighten rules of origin and labor provisions to curb China-linked production in Mexico. Firms using nearshoring must reassess qualification, wage-content compliance, and tariff exposure.

Political-legal uncertainty and resilience

Policy remains highly reactive to security and market shocks, with sudden liquidity moves and border measures. This unpredictability can affect licensing, customs throughput, tax measures (e.g., fuel-tax adjustments), and dispute risk, requiring stronger contractual protections and scenario planning.

Rare Earth Supply Risks

China’s control over rare earths remains a major chokepoint. Permanent magnet exports to the US fell 22.5% year on year to 994 tonnes in January-February, while aerospace and semiconductor users still report shortages, elevating inventory, procurement and diversification pressures.

Power sector reform and costs

Eskom supply has stabilised, but output remains below 2025 levels (13,007 GWh Jan 2026) and tariffs are rising (Nersa 8.76% effective). Grid expansion needs ~14,000 km lines (R440bn). Firms face price volatility, self-generation and wheeling opportunities.

Foreign capital stays engaged

Foreign holdings of Thai equities reached a record 6.11 trillion baht in January 2026, equal to 37.1% of market capitalisation. Continued overseas participation supports financing conditions, but heavy foreign influence also leaves markets sensitive to global sentiment and political developments.

Ports, corridors and logistics upgrading

Cai Mep–Thi Vai’s January throughput rose 9% y/y to 711,429 TEU, with 48 weekly international routes and capacity for 24,000-TEU vessels. New expressways and bridges aim to cut inland transit times, lowering logistics costs and improving export reliability.

Macro fragility: baht, rates, uneven growth

Bank of Thailand sees below-potential, uneven growth and cut rates to 1.0% amid competitiveness concerns and baht misalignment. War-driven energy inflation risks stagflation, currency volatility, and demand swings; multinationals should strengthen pricing, hedging, and working-capital buffers.

Trade facilitation and export competitiveness

Government prioritises export-led growth via trade facilitation and tariff rationalisation. Outcomes matter for textiles and other export sectors facing weak demand and high input costs. Faster border procedures, stable FX access and predictable duties can materially improve sourcing and delivery timelines.

Battery technology rivalry intensifies

Korean battery leaders are escalating patent enforcement and next-generation development, while new South Korea capacity such as silicon-anode production reduces dependence on China-dominated graphite. This strengthens allied supply chains but raises litigation, licensing, and partner-selection risks for investors and manufacturers.

Escalating US–China tariff cycle

New US Section 301 investigations and temporary tariff tools increase volatility for China-linked trade. Beijing signals retaliation options including rare earth curbs and soybean purchase slowdowns. Firms should model sudden duty changes, rerouting via third countries, and contract renegotiations.

Infrastructure Concessions Execution Risk

Transmission planning was disrupted as five originally scheduled lots were removed pending TCU decisions and resolution of troubled MEZ Energia concessions. This underscores execution and regulatory risks in Brazilian infrastructure programs, affecting investors, equipment suppliers and long-term project pipelines.

Mining export expansion and bottlenecks

South Africa dominates seaborne manganese trade (~36%) and holds ~three-quarters of identified reserves, but logistics constrain growth. Producers plan a Ngqura terminal targeting 16 Mt/year, replacing Port Elizabeth’s 5.5 Mt capacity, paired with corridor rail upgrades—offering upside if Transnet execution and permitting hold.

Data Center Industrial Pivot

As parts of Neom are scaled back, Saudi Arabia is leaning harder into data centers and AI infrastructure. A $5 billion DataVolt deal at Oxagon highlights opportunities in digital infrastructure, power, cooling, construction, and cloud-adjacent services, while increasing electricity and water planning needs.

Tax administration and policy uncertainty

Revenue underperformance (Rs428bn shortfall in eight months) is pushing target revisions and stronger enforcement. Expect more audits, withholding, digitalisation and tariff rationalisation. Compliance burdens, customs clearance times and the predictability of effective tax rates remain key concerns.

Monetary Policy Raises Financing Uncertainty

The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, but energy shocks could lift inflation toward 3.5% by late summer. Businesses face uncertain borrowing conditions, volatile sterling expectations, and more cautious capital allocation across investment, real estate, and consumer sectors.

High Capital Costs Constrain Investment

Despite the rate cut, Brazil still maintains one of the world’s highest real interest rates, while transmission-sector equity cost estimates rose to 12.50%. Expensive capital can deter smaller entrants, compress project returns and slow expansion plans in infrastructure and industry.

Gümrük Birliği modernizasyon gündemi

‘Made in EU’ kapsamı tartışmaları Ankara’yı AB Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesine odakladı. 2025’te AB-Türkiye ticareti ~233 milyar $’a ulaştı; ihracatın %43’ü AB’ye. Modernizasyon, hizmetler/tarım ve uyuşmazlık mekanizmalarıyla yatırım öngörülebilirliğini belirleyecek.

IMF Program and Fiscal Discipline

Pakistan’s delayed IMF review keeps $1 billion EFF and roughly $200 million climate financing at stake, while tax shortfalls of Rs428 billion and pressure to cut subsidies, spending and state-firm losses shape currency stability, sovereign risk and investor confidence.

Monetary Tightening and Lira

Turkey’s central bank held rates at 37% and kept overnight funding at 40% as inflation stayed at 31.5% in February. Lira defense has reportedly consumed about $26 billion in reserves, raising financing, hedging, import-cost, and repatriation risks for foreign businesses.

Infrastructure finance and private mobilisation

Government is prioritising large infrastructure spend (≈R1.07trn medium term), but execution risks persist. A World Bank-supported credit-guarantee vehicle (US$350m; targeting US$500m capital) aims to mobilise ~US$10bn over a decade, initially for transmission, potentially expanding to transport and water—creating investable pipelines.

Shadow fleet shipping enforcement scrutiny

UK delisting of a British financier linked to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ underscores evolving sanctions enforcement and review processes. Maritime, energy and finance firms must intensify beneficial‑ownership checks, vessel tracking and trade‑finance controls to avoid inadvertent violations.

Shipbuilding gains with strategic pressure

Korean yards are benefiting from tanker demand, US shipbuilding cooperation, and linked investment opportunities, including Hanwha’s Philadelphia expansion. Yet Chinese yards won 80% of February global newbuild orders, challenging Korea on price and delivery, including in LNG carriers.

Fiscal strain and ratings pressure

War costs are reshaping fiscal priorities and sovereign risk. Israel’s 2026 budget includes NIS 699 billion spending and NIS 142 billion for defense, while Fitch kept the country at A with negative outlook, warning debt could reach 72.5% of GDP.

Skilled Labour Shortages Deepen

Demographic ageing is tightening labour availability across construction, logistics, healthcare, energy and manufacturing. Germany needs roughly 400,000 foreign skilled workers annually, but visa delays, administrative bottlenecks and retention challenges raise operating costs and constrain expansion plans for employers.

Palm Oil Rules Squeeze Exporters

Palm oil producers face higher export levies, possible rules retaining 50% of export proceeds for one year, and tighter domestic biodiesel demand. These measures could restrict liquidity, reduce exportable volumes and alter global edible oil and biofuel trade flows.