New trade deals and friend-shoring

US is using reciprocal trade agreements to rewire supply chains toward strategic partners. The US–Taiwan deal caps many tariffs at 15%, links chip treatment to US investment, and includes large procurement and investment pledges, influencing regional manufacturing footprints and sourcing decisions.

الخصخصة وإعادة هيكلة الشركات الحكومية

تسريع برنامج تقليص دور الدولة عبر إعداد 60 شركة: نقل 40 لصندوق مصر السيادي وتجهيز 20 للقيد/الطرح في البورصة، مع إنشاء منصب نائب رئيس وزراء للشؤون الاقتصادية. ذلك يخلق فرص استحواذ وشراكات، لكنه يتطلب وضوحاً في الحوكمة والتقييمات وحقوق المستثمرين.

China-exposure and strategic asset scrutiny

Beijing warned of potential retaliation over proposals to return Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, highlighting renewed geopolitics around strategic infrastructure. Firms with China-linked ownership, customers or supply chains face higher political, reputational and contract risks, alongside tighter investment screening.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

Coupang breach escalates to ISDS

Coupang’s data-leak investigation is triggering US political pushback and investor-state dispute settlement threats under the Korea–US FTA. A prolonged legal-diplomatic fight could chill US tech investment, complicate enforcement predictability, and heighten retaliatory trade risk perceptions.

Labor shortages, immigration and automation

A cabinet plan targets admission of ~1.23 million foreign workers by March 2029 across 19 shortage sectors, while new political voices advocate replacing labor with AI. Companies must plan for wage inflation, onboarding/compliance, and accelerated automation to stabilize operations.

Sanctions and “blood oil” compliance

Scrutiny is rising over refined fuel derived from spliced Russian crude, with claims Australia was the largest buyer among sanctioning nations in 2025. Potential rule changes could require origin due diligence and contract flexibility, raising procurement costs and enforcement risk across energy inputs.

Nokia networks enabling industrial XR

Nokia’s continued investment in optical networks, data-centre switching and 5G/6G trials strengthens the connectivity backbone for industrial metaverse and real-time simulation. International firms can leverage Finnish telecom partnerships, but should plan for supply constraints in AI infrastructure ecosystems.

Policy execution and compliance environment

India continues “trust-based” tax and customs process reforms, including integrated systems and reduced litigation measures, while maintaining tighter enforcement in strategic sectors. Multinationals should expect improved digitalized compliance but uneven on-ground implementation across states and agencies.

Carbon pricing and green finance

Cabinet approved carbon credits, allowances and RECs as TFEX derivatives reference assets, anticipating a Climate Change Act with mandatory caps and pricing. Firms face rising compliance expectations, new hedging tools, and stronger ESG disclosure demands across supply chains and financing.

Gas expansion and petrochemicals feedstock

Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas project began selling condensate and targets large gas and liquids volumes by 2030, potentially freeing ~1 mb/d of crude for export and boosting NGL supply. This reshapes regional feedstock economics for power, chemicals, and downstream manufacturing.

Rising resource nationalism enforcement

Pengetatan pengawasan SDA dan penertiban izin meningkatkan ketidakpastian kontrak serta risiko intervensi negara. Pemerintah disebut menyita jutaan hektare aset tambang/perkebunan dan menagih denda besar (mis. potensi denda Weda Bay ~Rp3 triliun). Investor menghadapi risiko perizinan, kepatuhan lingkungan, dan stabilitas aset.

Gargalos logísticos no Porto

O megaterminal Tecon Santos 10 enfrenta atrasos e controvérsias sobre elegibilidade no leilão, elevando risco de judicialização. Exportadores reportaram perdas: no café, R$ 66,1 milhões e 1.824 contêineres/mês não embarcados, com US$ 2,64 bilhões em divisas perdidas em 2025.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Rising wages and labor tightness

Regular wages rose 3.09% in 2025 to NT$47,884, with electronics overtime at 27.9 hours—highest in 46 years—reflecting AI-driven demand and labor constraints. Cost inflation and capacity bottlenecks may pressure contract terms, automation capex, and talent retention strategies.

Investment security screening expands

CFIUS scrutiny and emerging outbound-investment controls increase deal uncertainty in sensitive sectors like semiconductors, AI and advanced manufacturing. Cross-border M&A may require longer timelines, mitigation agreements, or abandonment; investors need earlier national-security due diligence and structural protections.

Ports and logistics hub acceleration

Saudi ports are expanding capacity and private participation to capture transshipment and east–west trade. January throughput reached 738,111 TEUs (+2% YoY) with transshipment +22%. Deals include APM Terminals buying 37.5% of Jeddah’s 4.1m TEU South Container Terminal, plus new logistics centers.

Macro volatility and funding constraints

Infrastructure rebuild needs collide with fiscal and SOE balance-sheet limits. Eskom debt and unbundling design shape financing costs, while municipalities’ weak finances constrain service delivery. For investors, this elevates FX, interest-rate and payment-risk premiums, and lengthens due diligence on counterparties.

LNG export surge and permitting pipeline

The US is expanding LNG exports and new capacity proposals, supporting allies’ energy security but tightening domestic gas balances in some scenarios. Energy-intensive industries face price uncertainty; traders and shippers should watch FERC/DOE approvals, contract structures, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Korea semiconductor industrial policy reboot

A new Special Act creates a presidential commission, dedicated funding and cluster support to strengthen the entire chip supply chain. Regulatory streamlining and regional incentives can attract foreign suppliers, but unresolved labor flexibility debates may constrain rapid R&D and ramp-ups.

EU partnership and stricter standards

Vietnam–EU relations upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, reinforcing EVFTA-driven diversification and investment. However, access increasingly hinges on ESG, traceability, governance and carbon-related requirements (including CBAM-linked expectations), raising compliance burdens across manufacturing and agriculture exports.

Energy security and gas reservation

Federal plans to introduce an east-coast gas reservation from 2027—requiring LNG exporters to reserve 15–25% for domestic supply—could alter contract structures, price dynamics and feedstock certainty for manufacturers and data centres. Producers warn of arbitrage and margin impacts in winter peaks.

Robo de carga y costos logísticos

El robo de carga se concentra en Centro (51%) y Bajío (31%), 82% del total en 2025; picos martes‑viernes. Afecta inventarios, seguros y tiempos de entrega, obligando a rediseñar rutas, escoltas, telemetría y estrategias de almacenes más cercanos al cliente.

Higher-rate volatility and costs

RBA tightening bias after lifting the cash rate to 3.85% amid core inflation ~3.4% and capacity constraints increases borrowing-cost uncertainty. Expect impacts on capex hurdle rates, commercial property, consumer demand, and FX. Treasury functions should extend hedging horizons and liquidity buffers.

Technology dependence and shortages

Despite ‘import substitution’ rhetoric, Russia remains reliant on high-tech imports; Chinese microchips reportedly supply ~90% of needs. Gaps persist in transport and industrial capabilities, raising risks of equipment shortages, degraded maintenance cycles, and unpredictable regulatory interventions to secure inputs.

Foreign investment screening delays

FIRB/treasury foreign investment approvals remain slower and costlier, increasing execution risk for M&A and greenfield projects. Business groups report unpredictable milestones and missed statutory timelines, while fees have risen sharply (e.g., up to ~A$1.2m for >A$2bn investments), affecting deal economics.

Critical minerals industrial policy shift

Canberra is accelerating strategic-minerals policy via a A$1.2bn reserve, production tax incentives and project finance, amid allied price-floor talks. Heightened FIRB scrutiny of Chinese stakes and governance disputes increase compliance risk but expand opportunities for allied offtakes and processing investment.

LNG buildout and Asian markets

Canadian LNG export capacity is advancing through projects such as LNG Canada and Cedar LNG, with long-term supply contracts emerging. This supports upstream and midstream investment, but depends on regulatory certainty, Indigenous agreements, and global LNG pricing.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Preparations for the USMCA/CUSMA joint review are colliding with renewed U.S. tariff threats on autos, steel, aluminum and other goods, raising compliance and pricing risk for integrated North American supply chains and cross-border investment planning.

Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

Energiepreise, Gasvorräte, Versorgung

Gasspeicher fielen Anfang Februar unter 30%, teures LNG und Transportengpässe erhöhen Preisrisiken. Parallel stützt der Staat Strompreise (rund 30 Mrd. € 2026). Für energieintensive Branchen bleiben Standortkosten, Vertragsstrukturen und Hedging zentral für Investitionen und Produktion.

Indo-Pacific decoupling, China risk

An updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes critical-mineral diversification, anti-coercion coordination, and tighter technology alignment with like-minded partners. For firms, this raises the likelihood of China-facing export controls, dual-use compliance burdens, and accelerated “China+1” supply-chain restructuring.

Disinflation and rate-cut cycle

Inflation has eased into the 1–3% target, with recent readings near 1.8% and markets pricing further Bank of Israel rate cuts. Lower borrowing costs may support demand, but a stronger shekel can squeeze exporters and reshuffle competitiveness across tradable sectors.

Platform takedowns for illegal promotions

FCA’s High Court action against HTX seeks UK blocking via Apple/Google app stores and social platforms, signalling tougher cross-border enforcement of financial promotions and raising distribution and marketing risk for offshore investing and crypto apps.

Volatilité budgétaire et dette

Après l’adoption d’un budget par décret, le déficit 2026 est projeté autour de 5,4% du PIB, avec objectifs de consolidation contestés. Pour les entreprises, cela augmente l’incertitude fiscale, la pression sur dépenses publiques et les risques de volatilité des taux.

Higher-for-longer rate risk

The RBA has returned to tightening, lifting the cash rate to 3.85% and warning inflation may stay above target for years. Markets price further hikes. Higher funding costs, tighter credit terms, and AUD volatility can influence investment timing, M&A valuations, and capex decisions.