Mining approvals and permitting pace

Provincial approvals for major mines and expansions, including B.C.’s Copper Mountain expansion with up to 90% higher annual copper output and life extended toward 2040, signal faster resource development. Opportunities grow for equipment and offtake, alongside tailings and assessment risks.

Regulatory capacity, corruption and compliance

Investor confidence depends on effective regulators, enforcement against organised crime, and transparent procurement. Progress such as FATF greylist removal supports financial flows, but municipal arrears, illicit connections, and governance weaknesses continue to elevate operational risk and compliance overhead.

Energy policy and gas dependence

Mexico imports record U.S. natural gas (~6.638 Bcf/d in 2025) and uses gas for over 60% of power generation, while policy favors state firms. Exposure to U.S. supply/price shocks and regulatory uncertainty affects industrial power costs and project bankability.

Defense-industrial expansion and offsets

Rising security pressures are accelerating defense spending and procurement, increasing opportunities but also export-control and security-review burdens. Firms supplying dual-use technologies face tighter screening, localization demands, and reputational exposure in sensitive regional markets.

Industrial policy reshapes investment flows

CHIPS, IRA and related incentives keep pulling advanced manufacturing and clean-tech investment into the US, but with stringent domestic-content, labor, and sourcing rules. Suppliers must localize key inputs, track eligibility changes, and manage subsidy-related audit and disclosure obligations.

Trade controls and import compliance push

France is intensifying border and market inspections on origin, labeling, and pesticide residues, backed by new 2026 thresholds and specialized enforcement teams. Importers face higher testing, delays, and documentation demands, raising compliance costs and rejection risk.

Wage dynamics reshape demand outlook

Real wages turned positive (+1.4% y/y in January) as inflation cooled (1.7%), while unions seek ~5.94% raises. Stronger household purchasing power can lift consumption but may reinforce BOJ tightening, impacting retail, services, and labor-cost strategies.

Tax reform and housing incentives

Budget deliberations flag reforms to negative gearing and the 50% capital-gains-tax discount (potentially cut to ~33% for housing). Shifts could reprice residential assets, affect build-to-rent returns, and alter capital allocation for inbound investors and developers.

EU transport integration accelerates

Ukraine is deepening integration with EU logistics through measures like extending “transport visa-free” to 2027, advancing European-gauge rail projects, and rolling out e-freight documentation (e‑TTN). These steps can reduce border friction, but capacity constraints and wartime disruptions persist.

Sanctions expansion and compliance burden

Ukraine is tightening sanctions against Russia-linked defense, finance, crypto, and “shadow fleet” actors, including 225 captains and dozens of entities. Multinationals face heightened due-diligence, counterparty screening, and shipping-chain transparency requirements to avoid secondary exposure and reputational risk.

Carbon border and emissions compliance

EU CBAM transition is moving toward payment obligations from 2026, raising embedded-carbon reporting and cost exposure for imports of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers and electricity into France. Suppliers must improve emissions data, audit trails and pricing clauses to protect margins.

Siyasi-gerilim şokları ve güven primi

IMF değerlendirmesi, 2025 Mart’ındaki piyasa stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlık satışı ve net rezervlerde sert düşüşe işaret ediyor; CDS 250 bp’den 370 bp’ye sıçramıştı. Benzer şoklar yatırım iştahı ve sermaye girişlerini dalgalandırabilir.

Energy Costs and Industrial Competitiveness

Persistently high electricity prices and policy-driven levies weigh on energy-intensive manufacturing, accelerating investment delays and offshoring. Berlin’s industrial power-price measures and tax reductions may help, but uncertainty over long-term energy strategy remains a key operational risk.

Sectoral Section 232 tariff pressure

National-security tariffs under Section 232 remain a durable lever on steel, aluminum, autos and potentially other strategic sectors. Ongoing or new investigations can raise costs, alter competitiveness, and incentivize nearshoring or US production to preserve market access.

EU integration and regulatory convergence

Exports increasingly pivot to the EU (57% in 2024 vs 36% in 2021), accelerating alignment with EU standards, customs, and competition rules. Firms should anticipate compliance upgrades, certification demand, and shifting market access while accession politics remain uncertain.

Orta Koridor lojistik avantajı

Rusya-Ukrayna ve Körfez’de artan riskler deniz geçitlerini kırılganlaştırırken, Türkiye merkezli Orta Koridor Çin-Avrupa teslim süresini ~15 güne indiriyor. Kara-demir yolu kapasitesi, gümrük süreçleri ve sınır geçişleri tedarik zinciri stratejilerinde kritik hale geliyor.

Trade exposure to US tariffs

Businesses face heightened external risk from US trade policy uncertainty and potential reciprocal tariffs, which Thai industry groups warn could affect export categories worth over US$45 billion. Firms should stress-test pricing, origin rules, and re-routing options while diversifying markets and suppliers.

External financing and rollover risk

Pakistan’s reserves depend on continued rollovers and refinancing from UAE, China, and Saudi Arabia, including a closely watched $2bn UAE deposit extension. Any delay would raise devaluation and capital-control risks, disrupting trade settlement and repatriation.

US–Vietnam trade deal uncertainty

Reciprocal trade-agreement talks with Washington are accelerating, but Vietnam’s record US surplus (about US$133.8bn in 2025) heightens tariff, rules-of-origin, and anti-circumvention scrutiny. Exporters should harden traceability, pricing, and compliance programs.

Outbound investment screening expansion

Growing outbound investment controls—especially from the US and allies—are narrowing deal space in sensitive sectors (chips, AI, quantum). For China-linked transactions this raises approval timelines, diligence costs, and structuring complexity, increasing uncertainty for cross-border M&A, joint ventures, and technology partnerships.

Shadow fleet interdictions escalate

Europe is increasingly boarding, detaining and fining “shadow fleet” tankers using false flags and opaque ownership, raising disruption risk for Russian-origin cargoes. Higher freight, insurance and seizure exposure can spill into global tanker availability and pricing.

E-commerce import tax tightening

Thailand removed the 1,500-baht de minimis threshold, applying duties (often 10–30% of CIF) plus 7% VAT to all cross-border e-commerce parcels. This raises consumer prices, pressures platforms and sellers, and strengthens compliance screening—affecting market entry, pricing, and fulfillment models.

Post-election coalition policy direction

A new multi-party coalition around Bhumjaithai is forming after February elections, reducing near-term political deadlock but reshaping ministerial priorities. Watch budget timing, industrial policy, and regulatory continuity, especially for infrastructure approvals and investment promotion decisions impacting FDI pipelines.

Russia trade rerouting and border friction

Trade increasingly reroutes via China, the Far East, Belarus and Central Asia as checks tighten. Border-crossing times for China–Kazakhstan–Russia routes have tripled at times, with delays up to a month and transport costs up 5–10%, straining inventory planning and service levels.

Privatization and investability reforms

A National Privatization Strategy expands the Vision 2030 program across transport and other sectors, supported by clearer PPP frameworks. Private transport/logistics investment reportedly exceeded SAR 280 billion. Foreign firms gain more entry points, but must manage procurement and local-content rules.

Growing IT and services exports

IT exports rose ~20% YoY to $2.6bn in 7MFY26, with FY26 targets of $4.5–$5bn. This supports FX earnings and creates opportunities in outsourcing, fintech, and digital infrastructure, while requiring clearer regulation, payments reliability, and data/security compliance.

USMCA review and North America rules

A 2026 USMCA review is positioned as conditional, with U.S. pressure on Mexico/Canada over dairy access, energy, labor enforcement, and origin rules. Outcomes could shift regional sourcing strategies, automotive and agri-food flows, and investment decisions tied to tariff-free access.

State-backed semiconductor industrial policy

Tokyo is deepening intervention to rebuild domestic chip capacity: government bought 40% of Rapidus for ¥100bn and holds a “golden share,” with plans to raise voting rights up to ~60%. Subsidies and guarantees reshape supplier location, IP partnerships, and geopolitical exposure.

Pembatasan pajak layanan digital

Klausul ART melarang pajak layanan digital yang diskriminatif terhadap perusahaan AS serta melarang bea atas transmisi elektronik, sambil membuka komitmen transfer data lintas batas. Ini menurunkan opsi kebijakan fiskal dan memengaruhi negosiasi dengan platform global, tetapi dapat mempercepat investasi cloud, pusat data, dan layanan digital.

Water infrastructure reliability and governance

Recurring outages in Gauteng highlight aging assets, high non‑revenue water (often >40% in some municipalities), and fragmented accountability. National reforms and major projects like LHWP‑2 aim to improve supply, but near-term disruptions threaten industrial operations and urban services.

Federal budget and shutdown disruptions

Recurring funding standoffs and partial shutdowns risk slowing DHS-linked services (ports, TSA/Global Entry, FEMA) and regulatory processing. Businesses face operational delays, staffing uncertainty for contractors, and interruptions to permitting, trade facilitation, and enforcement consistency.

Critical minerals onshoring push

Government-backed processing is accelerating (e.g., AU$135m Nyrstar antimony output; Iluka’s AU$1.6bn-loan-backed Eneabba rare earths refinery). This strengthens non-China supply chains but raises permitting, cost and offtake risks for investors and OEMs.

Critical minerals industrial policy surge

Ottawa is accelerating “mine-to-market” capacity with ~C$3.6B in programs, including a C$1.5B First and Last Mile Fund, a C$2B Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, and faster permitting tools. This can de-risk allied supply chains but raises ESG/Indigenous engagement demands.

Fiscal consolidation and tax enforcement

Treasury is pursuing fiscal discipline while avoiding major rate hikes, leaning on stronger SARS enforcement, transfer-pricing scrutiny, and potential bracket creep. Multinationals should expect higher compliance costs, more audits, and tighter documentation requirements across cross‑border flows.

Reconstruction boom amid war risk

Rebuilding needs are estimated at $587.7B for 2026–2035, with direct damage $195.1B and priority 2026 needs $15.25B. Large pipelines in transport, energy, housing create opportunities, but contracting, security, and performance-risk management remain decisive for investors.

Commodity export surge, value-add push

Merchandise exports reportedly rose ~55% to $13.43bn in 2025, driven by gold ($6.40bn) and coffee ($2.46bn). Opportunities grow in processing and logistics, but earnings concentration and provenance concerns heighten compliance, reputational, and FX volatility risks.