Treasury demand and credibility strain

Reports of Chinese regulators urging banks to curb US Treasury buying, alongside elevated issuance, steepen the yield curve and raise term premia. Higher US rates lift global funding costs, hit EM dollar borrowers, and reprice project finance and M&A hurdles.

BoJ normalization lifts funding costs

The Bank of Japan’s cautious tightening bias—policy rate lifted to 0.75% in December and markets pricing further hikes—raises borrowing costs and may reprice real estate and equities. Firms should revisit capex hurdle rates, refinancing timelines, and counterparty risk.

Hydrogen-for-heating strategic uncertainty

Germany’s hydrogen backbone and standards work can divert capital and workforce from near‑term electrification, creating uncertainty about future building-heat pathways. Businesses face technology‑mix risk across boilers, H₂-ready assets, and grid upgrades—affecting product roadmaps and infrastructure investment timing.

Fiscal consolidation and tax uncertainty

France’s 2026 budget targets a ~5% of GDP deficit and debt around 118% of GDP, relying on higher levies on large corporates and restrained spending. Political fragmentation and 49.3 use heighten policy volatility for investors, pricing, and hiring.

Energy mix permitting and local opposition

While no renewables moratorium is planned, the PPE points to slower onshore wind/solar and prioritizes repowering to reduce local conflicts. Permitting risk and community opposition can delay projects, affecting PPAs, factory decarbonization plans, and ESG delivery timelines.

Tariff volatility and legal shifts

Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs and the administration’s pivot to a temporary 10–15% Section 122 global surcharge increase short-term pricing uncertainty, refund litigation risk, and contract renegotiations for importers, exporters, and firms with tariff-indexed supply agreements.

Eastern Mediterranean gas hub strategy

A planned $2bn Cyprus–Egypt subsea pipeline (170 km, ~800 mmcfd, target 2030) would feed Egypt’s grid and LNG export terminals (Idku, Damietta). This strengthens energy security and industrial inputs, while creating opportunities in EPC, services, and offtake.

Tariff volatility and trade deals

U.S. tariff policy remains highly volatile amid court scrutiny of IEEPA authority, shifting “reciprocal” rates, and ad‑hoc bilateral deals (e.g., India set at 18%). Importers front‑load shipments; NRF forecasts H1 2026 container imports -2% y/y, complicating pricing, inventory and sourcing.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

Cross-border payments and de-dollarization

Saudi Arabia’s participation in the mBridge multi-CBDC platform (joined 2024) supports faster cross-border settlement; reported cumulative volume exceeds ~$55bn by late-2025, with e-CNY >95% of settlement value. This may broaden currency options and compliance considerations for regional trade financing.

Data security and cross-border flows

China’s data-security regime continues tightening around cross-border transfers, localization, and security assessments for “important data.” Multinationals face higher compliance costs, audit exposure, and potential disruption to global IT architectures, analytics, HR systems, and cloud-based operations.

Financial system tightening and liquidity

Banking reforms—phasing out credit quotas and moving toward Basel III—may reprice credit and widen gaps between strong and weak lenders. With credit-to-GDP above 140% and periodic liquidity spikes, corporates may face higher working-capital costs and tougher project financing.

Labor shortages and immigration bureaucracy

Germany needs about 300,000 skilled workers annually to maintain capacity, but slow, fragmented visa and qualification recognition processes delay hires by months. Tight labor markets raise operating costs and constrain scaling; multinationals should expand nearshoring, automation and structured talent pipelines.

Defense rearmament boosts demand

Germany is accelerating procurement, including a €536m first tranche of loitering munitions within a €4.3bn framework and NATO long-range drone initiatives. This supports select industrial orders and dual-use tech investment, but tightens export controls, compliance, and supply competition for components.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Washington and Mexico have begun talks on USMCA reforms ahead of the July 1 joint review, with stricter rules of origin, anti-dumping measures and critical-minerals cooperation. Uncertainty raises pricing, compliance and investment risk for export manufacturers, especially autos and electronics.

Skilled-visa uncertainty and delays

H-1B tightening—$100,000 fees, enhanced social-media vetting, and India consular interview backlogs reportedly pushing stamping to 2027—raises operational risk for U.S.-based tech, healthcare and R&D staffing. Companies may shift work offshore or redesign mobility programs.

الخصخصة وإعادة هيكلة الشركات الحكومية

تسريع برنامج تقليص دور الدولة عبر إعداد 60 شركة: نقل 40 لصندوق مصر السيادي وتجهيز 20 للقيد/الطرح في البورصة، مع إنشاء منصب نائب رئيس وزراء للشؤون الاقتصادية. ذلك يخلق فرص استحواذ وشراكات، لكنه يتطلب وضوحاً في الحوكمة والتقييمات وحقوق المستثمرين.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para CBS/IBS e Imposto Seletivo começa em 2026 e vai até 2033, com mudanças de crédito e cobrança no destino. Empresas precisam adaptar ERP, precificação e contratos; risco de litígios e custos temporários de compliance aumenta.

RBA tightening and persistent inflation risk

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% as core inflation re-accelerated and capacity pressures persisted. Higher financing costs and a stronger AUD can affect valuations, capex and consumer demand, while raising hedging needs for importers/exporters and tightening credit conditions across supply chains.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

Saudization and workforce constraints

Saudi Arabia is tightening localization rules, restricting expatriates from certain senior and commercial roles and raising Saudization ratios in sales/marketing. Multinationals must redesign org charts, compensation, and compliance processes, increasing operating costs and talent-transition risk.

Energy security via long LNG deals

Japan is locking in multi-decade LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for 3 mtpa from 2028 and potential Mitsui equity in North Field South. This stabilizes fuel supply, but links costs to long-term contract structures and geopolitics.

Sanctions compliance and rerouting risks

Ongoing Russia-related sanctions and rising evidence of gray-market rerouting via third countries increase exposure for Japanese brands and distributors. Companies should tighten end-use checks, dealer controls, and trade-finance screening to avoid enforcement, reputational harm, and shipment seizures.

Institutional and legal-policy volatility

Moves by the legislature to influence Constitutional Court appointments and broader governance debates underscore institutional risk. For investors, this can translate into less predictable judicial review, permitting outcomes, and enforcement consistency—especially in regulated sectors like mining, environment, and infrastructure.

Auto sector retooling amid trade

Canada’s auto industry is heavily integrated with the U.S.; trade renegotiation and tariff exposure are delaying parts of roughly C$46B in announced investment and complicating EV transition plans. Plant idlings, retooling, and rules-of-origin shifts raise operational and sourcing risk.

Mega-logistics projects reshape routes

Major rail and logistics projects are advancing, including the Den Chai–Chiang Rai–Chiang Khong double-track line (53% complete; opening expected 2028) and the Thai–Chinese HSR phase 1 (51.74% complete). These will alter inland freight costs and distribution strategies.

Rusya yaptırımları uyum baskısı

Türkiye, Rus petrol ürünlerinde büyük alıcı; STAR rafinerisi Rus payını azaltıp alternatif kaynak arıyor. AB/ABD yaptırımları ve “yeniden ihracat” denetimleri sıkılaşıyor. Bankacılık işlemleri, sigorta/denizcilik hizmetleri ve tedarikçi taraması daha riskli hale geliyor.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s heavy reliance on imported fuels makes LNG procurement, terminal resilience, and grid stability strategic business variables. Cross-strait disruptions could quickly constrain power supply for fabs and data centers; policy debate over new nuclear options signals potential regulatory and investment shifts.

Logistics and labor disruption risk

US port throughput remains vulnerable to labor negotiations and regulatory constraints, amplifying shipment lead-time uncertainty. Any East/Gulf or West Coast disruptions would quickly cascade into inland transport, retail inventories, and just-in-time manufacturing, raising safety-stock and premium freight costs.

Red Sea shipping and insurance costs

Red Sea insecurity continues to distort trade lanes, with heightened risk for vessels linked to Israeli ports and periodic rerouting around the Cape. Elevated war-risk premiums and longer transit times affect inventory, freight budgeting, and supplier reliability for Israel-connected supply chains.

Ports and logistics hub buildout

Egypt is investing to become a regional transit-trade hub via multimodal corridors, dry ports, and major terminal expansions. Damietta’s new terminal targets ~3.3–3.5m TEU capacity with advanced equipment, improving throughput and transshipment competitiveness across the East Med.

Data-center edge boosts XR

Finland’s rapid data‑center buildout and edge computing expansion strengthen local capacity for low‑latency XR rendering and industrial digital twins, improving service reliability for exports. However, proposed electricity-tax changes and grid constraints may reshape operating costs and location choices.

Disinflation Path and Rates

The CBRT and IMF signal continued disinflation but still-high prices: inflation fell from 49.4% (Sep 2024) to 30.9% (Dec 2025), with end‑2026 seen near ~23%. Policy-rate cuts remain gradual, shaping demand, credit, and business financing costs.

Volatilidad macro: moneda e inflación

La depreciación del rial y episodios de inflación elevada distorsionan precios, márgenes y planificación. Empresas enfrentan controles de divisas, dificultades de repatriación, mayor riesgo de impago y costos de importación impredecibles, impulsando dolarización informal y contratos más cortos.

Energy security: LNG and nuclear

Japan is locking in long-term LNG supply—e.g., JERA’s 27-year, 3 mtpa deal with Qatar from 2028 and deeper US energy-linked investment frameworks—while accelerating reactor restarts. This reshapes fuel procurement, power-price risk, and emissions strategies for heavy industry and data centers.