Return to Homepage
Image

Mission Grey Daily Brief - July 16, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation is characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions, with the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war dominating the headlines. In addition, the UK's Labour Party has secured a historic parliamentary majority, while Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has resigned to take up a new leadership role in the EU. Meanwhile, businesses and investors are monitoring the impact of a car bomb explosion in Somalia's capital and Chile's ongoing homelessness crisis.

Attempted Assassination of Former US President Donald Trump

The attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania has sent shockwaves around the world. The incident has sparked concerns about political violence in the US and prompted global leaders to condemn the attack and express solidarity. The shooting has also attracted significant attention in China, with social media users and state media outlets criticizing the US political system and gun culture.

Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war continues to be a significant source of geopolitical tension, with global implications. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed to US state governors for continued military aid, while NATO leaders have pledged additional support and reaffirmed Ukraine's path towards NATO membership. However, former US President Donald Trump and some Republicans have expressed skepticism about providing further aid.

UK Labour Party's Historic Victory

The UK's Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, has secured one of the greatest parliamentary majorities in British history, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Starmer's centrist agenda focused on rebuilding the National Health Service, addressing the housing crisis, and cracking down on crime. This victory has significant implications for the country's political landscape and could influence the direction of UK policies in the coming years.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas Resigns

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has resigned from her position to take up a new leadership role as the EU's foreign policy chief. This development has initiated negotiations to form a new Estonian government, with Kristen Michal, the minister of climate, selected as the new prime minister. Kallas' resignation comes amid domestic criticism and the country's spending on ammunition, tax increases, and unpopular budget cuts.

Car Bomb Explosion in Somalia's Capital

A car bomb explosion outside a restaurant in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, has resulted in the deaths of five people and injuries to 20 others. The attack, claimed by the Islamist group Al Shabaab, underscores the ongoing security challenges in the region and highlights the need for enhanced security measures to protect civilians.

Chile's Homelessness Crisis

Chile is facing a homelessness crisis, with a 30% increase in the homeless population over the last four years. This crisis has emerged due to a combination of factors, including a pandemic-induced recession, a housing crunch, and a surge in migration. The Chilean government has pledged to address the issue by including homeless people in the national census and building new government-sponsored houses.

Risks and Opportunities

  • The attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump has heightened concerns about political violence and stability in the US, potentially impacting investor confidence.
  • The Russia-Ukraine war's prolonged nature and Ukraine's path towards NATO membership may lead to further geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions.
  • Estonia's leadership transition and the formation of a new government could result in policy shifts, potentially impacting businesses operating in the country.
  • The car bomb explosion in Somalia underscores the ongoing security risks in the region, highlighting the need for businesses and investors to carefully assess their security measures and contingency plans.
  • Chile's homelessness crisis and the subsequent social and economic challenges could impact businesses operating in the country, particularly in the tourism and real estate sectors.

Recommendations for Businesses and Investors

  • Given the heightened geopolitical tensions, businesses and investors should closely monitor the evolving situation and assess their exposure to political and security risks.
  • Diversification of supply chains and operations across multiple regions can help mitigate the impact of geopolitical tensions and reduce reliance on a single country or region.
  • Businesses operating in Estonia should stay apprised of policy changes under the new government and adapt their strategies accordingly.
  • Companies with a presence in Somalia should reevaluate their security protocols and consider additional measures to protect their personnel and assets.
  • For businesses in Chile, the homelessness crisis underscores the importance of corporate social responsibility and the potential for public-private partnerships to address social issues.

Further Reading:

40 Dead, Hundreds Injured After Heavy Rain, Storms In Eastern Afghanistan - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

A Close-Up View of the UK Election Gave Rise to an Unfamiliar Emotion: Envy - The Nation

After embrace at summit, Zelenskyy takes his case for US military aid to governors - Macau Daily Times

As the US reels from Trump shooting, China sees weakness - Business Insider

Canada reflects on its history of political violence in wake of attack on Trump - CBC.ca

Car Bomb Kills Five, Injures 20 Outside Restaurant in Somalia's Capital - U.S. News & World Report

Chile confronts a homelessness crisis, a first for one of South America’s richest countries - Los Angeles Times

Dhaka condemns attack on Trump - Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS)

Donald Trump survives an apparent assassination attempt - The Economist

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas resigns to take on new EU post - UPI News

Estonian Prime Minsiter Kaja Kallas resigns to take on new EU post - UPI News

FLOWERS: Trump, Rwanda and the Dangers of Political Propaganda - Delaware Valley Journal

Global leaders condemn apparent assassination attempt targeting former US President Donald Trump - The Associated Press

Global leaders condemn assassination attempt targeting former US President Donald Trump - WABC-TV

Themes around the World:

Flag

Inflationary Pressures and Energy Costs

Rising fuel prices have triggered a chain reaction of inflation affecting food, electricity, and transport costs, pushing headline inflation to 6.2% year-on-year in October 2025. Persistent inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and increases input costs for businesses, squeezing margins and complicating monetary policy. Energy sector circular debt exacerbates fiscal strain, threatening economic stability and business operations.

Flag

Critical Minerals Strategy and Supply Chain Security

The UK has launched a critical minerals strategy aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers by 2035, targeting 10% domestic production and 20% recycling. This is vital amid China's dominance in rare earths and growing demand for minerals essential to tech, EVs, and AI infrastructure, enhancing supply chain resilience and national security.

Flag

Record Banking Sector Profits Amid Public Criticism

Israel's major banks reported record profits in Q3 2025, driven by high interest rate spreads despite rate cuts. However, public and governmental criticism mounts over perceived profiteering at consumers' expense, prompting potential regulatory interventions. This dynamic influences financial sector stability, credit availability, and investor sentiment toward Israeli financial institutions.

Flag

Project Finance Market Recovery

Turkey's project finance market grew 185% in 2024 to $7.3B with 15 deals, led by transportation and renewable energy sectors. International financial institutions play a major role, indicating renewed investor confidence and critical financing for infrastructure and energy transition projects, vital for long-term economic growth.

Flag

Supply Chain and Material Cost Pressures

Taiwan's manufacturing sectors face rising costs due to volatile precious metal prices, including silver spikes affecting passive components and PCBs. These cost pressures prompt widespread price increases across supply chains, potentially impacting global electronics manufacturing and Taiwan's export competitiveness amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Flag

Stablecoin Influence on Currency Stability

The rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins poses new challenges to the won's stability by potentially reducing demand for physical won in international trade and increasing exchange rate volatility. South Korea is proactively establishing regulatory frameworks and monitoring mechanisms to mitigate risks associated with digital currency integration.

Flag

Taxation and Fiscal Policy Challenges

The 2026 budget debates foresee substantial tax increases on businesses amid high public debt and deficits. Rising tax burdens risk discouraging investment and industrial activity, while fiscal consolidation pressures create tensions between government goals and business interests.

Flag

Strong Consumer Confidence and Spending Trends

Vietnam leads ASEAN in consumer optimism with a sentiment index score of 67 in 2025, driven by economic stability and personal financial outlook. Consumers are increasingly environmentally conscious and willing to pay premiums for eco-friendly products. Rising expenditures in education, health, and lifestyle sectors reflect robust domestic demand supporting economic growth.

Flag

Flooding Impact on Southern Economy

Severe flooding in southern Thailand, particularly Songkhla province, has temporarily disrupted economic activities, affecting industries like rubber glove manufacturing, canned tuna, and retail. While short-term economic drag is expected, reconstruction efforts are projected to stimulate retail and construction sectors, with government relief measures supporting recovery and reinforcing demand for home repair and infrastructure development.

Flag

US-Saudi Strategic Economic Partnership

The US-Saudi relationship is deepening through defense agreements, technology transfers, and financial cooperation. US institutions hold nearly 30% of foreign investments in Saudi financial markets, supporting liquidity, governance, and infrastructure development. This partnership underpins Vision 2030 and facilitates access to advanced technologies and capital.

Flag

Deepening German-China Economic Ties

German industrial groups are significantly increasing investments in China, with corporate investment rising by €1.3 billion between 2023 and 2024 to €5.7 billion. The automotive sector leads this trend, investing €4.2 billion, reflecting the critical role China plays in German exports and supply chains despite geopolitical risks and government warnings.

Flag

Energy Security and Potential Chinese Blockade

Taiwan's heavy reliance on imported energy, particularly LNG and coal, exposes it to significant risks from potential Chinese blockades or gray-zone tactics targeting fuel supplies. Disruptions could cripple Taiwan's power grid, severely impacting semiconductor production and global electronics supply chains, underscoring the island's energy vulnerability.

Flag

France’s Role in Eurozone Economic Dynamics

France’s economic and political challenges contrast with Italy’s recent political stability and fiscal improvements, signaling a role reversal within the eurozone. France’s sluggish growth and fiscal strain may undermine its leadership role and influence in EU policymaking, affecting regional economic cohesion and investor perceptions.

Flag

Geopolitical Multipolarity Impact

Australia is navigating a new multipolar world where no single power dominates, increasing volatility and geopolitical risks. This shift compels Australia to leverage its resource wealth and institutional stability to attract global capital, diversify supply chains, and maintain pragmatic relations with multiple powers, enhancing its strategic economic positioning amid global uncertainty.

Flag

Political Instability and Economic Uncertainty

France faces significant political instability with frequent government changes and a fragmented parliament, causing legislative gridlock. This uncertainty dampens business confidence, delays investment decisions, and complicates fiscal policy, impacting international trade and investment strategies. The ongoing budget debates and tax policy unpredictability exacerbate economic uncertainty, posing risks to supply chains and business operations.

Flag

Geopolitical Risks Driving Gold Prices

Global geopolitical tensions are fueling a surge in gold prices, with Indonesia experiencing increased gold sales and inflationary pressures linked to gold. This trend underscores gold's role as a safe-haven asset, affecting commodity markets, inflation, and investment strategies within Indonesia and internationally.

Flag

Foreign Reserves Surpassing $50 Billion

Egypt's net international reserves exceeded $50 billion in October 2025, marking a historic milestone. This strong reserve position enhances economic stability by safeguarding against external shocks, stabilizing the exchange rate, and ensuring uninterrupted imports of strategic goods. It also improves Egypt's creditworthiness, enabling prudent fiscal management and attracting foreign investment.

Flag

T-MEC Review Risks

The upcoming 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC) poses significant uncertainty for Mexico's economy, particularly impacting investment flows and trade relations. While some expect controlled negotiations, potential tariff changes and political tensions in the US could disrupt supply chains and investor confidence, affecting Mexico's growth prospects and trade dynamics.

Flag

China's Gray-Zone Tactics and Energy Siege

China may seek to subdue Taiwan through non-military means such as energy blockades, cyberattacks, disinformation, and administrative restrictions targeting Taiwan’s fuel imports and power infrastructure. Such tactics threaten to disrupt Taiwan’s energy security and global semiconductor supply chains, with cascading effects on US and global markets.

Flag

E-commerce Market Boom

Turkey’s e-commerce sector is experiencing explosive growth, expected to reach $1.77 trillion by 2033 (CAGR 25.18%). Rising smartphone penetration, social media influence, and digital payment adoption are enabling SMEs to access global markets, transforming retail and supply chain dynamics.

Flag

Corporate Governance Reforms and Activist Influence

Activist investors and increased retail participation are pressuring South Korean firms to improve governance, transparency, and shareholder returns. Historical governance issues linked to chaebol structures have suppressed valuations. Recent reforms and foreign investor activism aim to align minority and controlling shareholders, potentially unlocking market value and attracting foreign investment.

Flag

Foreign Investor Capital Outflows

Foreign investors withdrew Rp3.79 trillion (US$254 million) from Indonesian markets in November 2025, primarily from government bonds and Bank Indonesia securities. Despite short-term outflows, domestic trading activity surged, reflecting robust local investor engagement. Persistent foreign net selling since early 2025 signals cautious external sentiment, impacting liquidity and investment strategies in Indonesia's financial markets.

Flag

US-China Strategic Financial Interactions

China has funneled over $200 billion in hidden loans to US companies via offshore shell entities, targeting sectors critical to national security such as robotics, semiconductors, and biotech. This covert financial integration raises concerns about strategic influence, investment screening, and national security risks, complicating bilateral trade relations and investment strategies in sensitive industries.

Flag

Monetary Policy and Fiscal Stimulus Dynamics

The Bank of Japan's cautious approach amid economic contraction contrasts with government plans for fiscal stimulus and tax reforms aimed at spurring investment and consumption. This policy mix creates tension between monetary tightening and fiscal expansion, influencing investor sentiment and economic recovery prospects.

Flag

Sovereign Wealth Fund Governance Concerns

The sovereign wealth fund Danantara faces criticism for overlapping mandates, unclear financing, and governance issues. Economists warn that its dominance over state-owned enterprises may crowd out private sector competitiveness and create conflicts of interest, potentially undermining Indonesia's business climate and investor confidence.

Flag

Australian Equity Market Volatility

Australia's share market has experienced significant declines due to global risk aversion, tech valuation concerns, and inflation fears. Key sectors like financials, materials, and technology have been hit hard, reflecting investor caution amid uncertain global economic conditions and monetary policy outlooks, affecting capital flows and corporate investment strategies.

Flag

Economic Impact of Corruption Scandals

High-profile corruption scandals involving Ukrainian elites undermine domestic governance and international confidence. This erosion of trust risks reducing foreign aid, investment inflows, and complicates diplomatic support, thereby affecting Ukraine’s economic stability and the effectiveness of international financial assistance programs.

Flag

Diaspora Economic Contributions

Ukrainian-American businesses generate significant economic value in the US, with nearly $60 billion in annual revenue and 300,000 jobs supported. This diaspora network sustains bilateral economic ties, facilitates technology transfer, and provides a financial lifeline, bolstering Ukraine’s economic resilience amid conflict.

Flag

Water Crisis and Infrastructure Challenges

Iran is grappling with a severe multi-year drought compounded by mismanagement and over-extraction of groundwater, threatening urban centers like Tehran with potential evacuation. This environmental crisis exacerbates economic difficulties, disrupts agricultural productivity, and undermines social stability, posing significant risks to domestic business operations and long-term investment viability.

Flag

Robust Economic Growth Post-Conflict

Israel's economy rebounded strongly in Q3 2025 with a 12.4% annualized GDP growth following wartime contractions. Growth was fueled by surging private consumption, exports, and investments, signaling resilience despite security challenges. This robust recovery supports investor confidence, boosts domestic demand, and strengthens Israel's position as a dynamic market for global trade and investment.

Flag

Elevated Market Valuations and Financial Stability Risks

The Federal Reserve highlights elevated asset valuations and high leverage, especially in nonbank financial institutions, as key financial stability risks. Overvalued equities and compressed bond spreads increase vulnerability to sharp market corrections, posing systemic risks that investors and businesses must monitor closely.

Flag

Rare Earth Minerals as Strategic Opportunity

Brazil’s vast rare earth deposits position it as a potential alternative to Chinese dominance in critical minerals vital for technology sectors. However, challenges include limited refining infrastructure, environmental concerns, and political uncertainties. Successful development could diversify global supply chains, attract foreign investment, and enhance Brazil’s geopolitical leverage in high-tech industries.

Flag

Inflation and Labour Market Dynamics

Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of peaking, while wage growth slows and unemployment rises to a four-year high. These dynamics constrain consumer spending and business activity, posing challenges for monetary policy and economic growth, with the Bank of England closely monitoring inflation trends ahead of potential interest rate adjustments.

Flag

Banking Sector Resilience and Growth

Egypt's banking sector demonstrated robust financial health in FY 2024 and Q1 2025, with capital adequacy at 18.3% and liquidity ratios exceeding regulatory thresholds. Supported by stable household deposits and foreign currency liquidity, the sector effectively financed private sector growth aligned with 4.2% GDP expansion, enhancing investor confidence and financial intermediation.

Flag

Structural Reforms in Energy and Logistics

Ongoing structural reforms targeting energy and logistics sectors are critical to unlocking South Africa's growth potential. Improvements in state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet aim to reduce operational inefficiencies, support infrastructure development, and enhance supply chain reliability, which are essential for attracting investment and boosting industrial productivity.

Flag

Economic and Security Risks from US-China Rivalry

Australia confronts heightened economic and security risks amid escalating US-China tensions, trade wars, and global institutional disruptions. Experts warn of underestimated vulnerabilities, including potential financial crises linked to US debt and dollar instability, necessitating robust economic foundations and strategic policy responses to maintain resilience in a fracturing global order.