Transición energética con cuellos

La expansión renovable enfrenta saturación de red y reglas aún en definición sobre despacho, pagos de capacidad e interconexión, clave para baterías y nuevos proyectos. Permisos “fast‑track” avanzan (p.ej., solares de 75‑130MW), pero curtailment y retrasos pueden afectar PPAs y costos.

Tourism expansion and regulatory easing

Tourism’s GDP share rose from 3.5% (2019) to ~5% (2025), targeting 10% and SAR600bn output, with employment above 1m. Policy signals—such as limited alcohol sales to premium expatriates—support destination competitiveness, boosting hospitality, retail, and aviation demand.

Defense rearmament boosts industrial demand

France is increasing defence outlays and production tempo; major primes are hiring at scale (e.g., Thales >9,000 hires globally, ~3,300 in France, over half in defence). Creates opportunities in aerospace/defence supply chains but tightens skilled‑labour availability and compliance requirements.

Параллельный импорт и серые каналы

Поставки санкционных товаров продолжаются через третьи страны. Пример: десятки тысяч авто западных брендов поступают через Китай как «нулевой пробег, б/у», обходя ограничения; в 2025 почти половина ~130 тыс. таких продаж в РФ была произведена в Китае. Комплаенс усложняется.

Indo-Pacific decoupling, China risk

An updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes critical-mineral diversification, anti-coercion coordination, and tighter technology alignment with like-minded partners. For firms, this raises the likelihood of China-facing export controls, dual-use compliance burdens, and accelerated “China+1” supply-chain restructuring.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

AI governance in retail finance

FCA’s call for input on AI’s long-term impact to 2030 signals reliance on outcome-based frameworks rather than new rules. Online investing firms must prove model governance, explainability and third‑party controls to deploy AI in advice, nudging and surveillance.

Energy subsidy and LPG distribution reform

Government plans tighter subsidized LPG 3kg controls: KTP-linked purchases, welfare ‘decile’ targeting, a single-price concept, and a new sub-distributor tier, with pilots before rollout. This affects FMCG demand, retail logistics, inflation dynamics, and operational planning for distributors.

Nearshoring growth meets constraints

Mexico continues attracting manufacturing and logistics investments, especially in northern and Bajío corridors, but execution risk is rising from land, permitting, utilities, and labor availability. Firms should stress-test project schedules, supplier capacity, and cross-border throughput assumptions.

استقرار النقد والتضخم والسياسة النقدية

الاحتياطيات سجلت نحو 52.59 مليار دولار بنهاية يناير 2026، مع تباطؤ التضخم إلى قرابة 10–12% واتجاه البنك المركزي لخفض الفائدة 100 نقطة أساس. تحسن الاستقرار يدعم الاستيراد والتمويل، لكن التضخم الشهري المتذبذب يبقي مخاطر التسعير والأجور مرتفعة.

Trade policy and tariff restructuring

A National Tariff Policy overhaul (2025–30) signals lower, simplified duties (0–15% slabs) to support exports, while provinces also adjust tax regimes. Businesses should expect transitional uncertainty in customs valuation, exemptions, and compliance, impacting landed costs and sourcing decisions.

CRE losses constrain regional lenders

Commercial real estate stress—especially office and maturing balloon loans—continues to pressure regional-bank capital and credit quality. As banks retrench, availability and pricing of construction, warehouse, and SME credit worsen, affecting US expansion plans and domestic supply-chain investment.

Corporate governance push on cash

Draft revisions to Japan’s corporate governance code would pressure boards to justify large cash/deposit hoards and redirect funds into growth investment. This supports M&A, capex and shareholder returns, but raises expectations on ROIC, disclosure and activist engagement for listed firms.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s export controls and temporary suspensions on metals such as gallium, germanium and antimony highlight near‑monopoly positions (around 99% of primary gallium). Multinationals face procurement shocks, price spikes, and stronger incentives to dual‑source, redesign products, and localize processing.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

Washington is escalating Iran pressure using tariff-based secondary measures—authorizing ~25% duties on imports from countries trading with Iran. This blurs trade and sanctions compliance, raises retaliation/WTO dispute risk, and forces multinationals to audit supply chains for Iran exposure.

Budget 2026 capex-led growth

Union Budget 2026–27 targets a 4.3% fiscal deficit with ₹12.2 lakh crore capex, prioritizing roads, rail corridors, waterways, and urban zones. Expect improved project pipelines and demand, but also procurement scrutiny and execution risk across states.

Property slump and demand uncertainty

Housing remains a key drag on confidence and consumption despite targeted easing. January showed slower month-on-month declines, yet year-on-year weakness persists across most cities. Multinationals should expect uneven regional demand, supplier stress, and heightened counterparty and payment risks.

Data protection and digital trade pressure

DPDP Act implementation and India–US digital trade commitments may reshape cross-border data transfers, localization expectations, and platform regulation. Multinationals should prepare governance, consent management, breach response, and contract updates amid evolving rules and enforcement.

EU customs union modernization push

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 customs union, while business groups press for progress and visa facilitation. Potential updates could broaden sector coverage and ease frictions, materially benefiting manufacturers, logistics, and EU-facing investment cases.

Rising defence spending and procurement

Germany is accelerating rearmament with major outlays (e.g., €536m initial loitering‑munitions order within a €4.3bn framework; broader funding exceeding €100bn). This boosts defence-tech opportunities but heightens export-control, security and supply‑capacity constraints.

Advanced chip reshoring accelerates

TSMC’s plan to mass-produce 3nm chips in Kumamoto, reportedly around US$17bn investment with added Japanese subsidies, deepens local supply. It strengthens Japan’s AI/auto ecosystems, but intensifies competition for talent, power, and water infrastructure.

Foreign access to government tenders

Riyadh reversed its 2024 regional-headquarters restriction for public contracts, allowing agencies to award projects to foreign firms without a Saudi RHQ via Etimad exceptions. This widens addressable government demand but adds procedural controls, pricing thresholds and compliance documentation for bidders.

Hydrogen-for-heating strategic uncertainty

Germany’s hydrogen backbone and standards work can divert capital and workforce from near‑term electrification, creating uncertainty about future building-heat pathways. Businesses face technology‑mix risk across boilers, H₂-ready assets, and grid upgrades—affecting product roadmaps and infrastructure investment timing.

Crypto-based payments and enforcement

Sanctions and FX scarcity are accelerating use of crypto and stablecoins for trade settlement and wealth preservation, drawing increased OFAC attention and first-time sanctions on exchanges tied to Iran. This raises AML/KYC burdens and counterparty screening complexity for fintech and traders.

Cyber defense and compliance tightening

Japan is strengthening “active cyberdefense” institutions and pushing tougher security expectations, including in financial and critical infrastructure segments. Multinationals should anticipate higher incident-reporting, supplier security audits, and operational resilience requirements across Japan-based networks.

Consolidation budgétaire et fiscalité

Le budget 2026, adopté via 49.3, comporte des mesures fiscales contestées et sécurisées devant le Conseil constitutionnel. Effets: incertitude sur fiscalité du capital et transmissions, arbitrages d’investissement, pression sur dépenses publiques et commandes.

Coût de l’énergie industrielle

La facture énergétique industrielle a reculé en 2024 (−24% à 17,3 Md€), mais reste ~1,5 fois 2019. L’électricité a baissé (−28% en 2024) après hausse 2023. Compétitivité, pricing et décisions de localisation restent sensibles aux marchés.

IMF program conditionality pressure

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews drive tax hikes, governance reforms and energy-sector changes, with missed FBR targets (≈Rs329–372bn shortfall). Compliance affects tranche releases (~$1.2bn), investor confidence, and the stability of import payments and profit repatriation.

Energy security via US LNG pivot

Taiwan plans major US purchases (2025–2029) including $44.4B LNG/crude, lifting US LNG share toward 25% and reducing reliance on Middle East routes. This reorients energy supply chains, affects power-price risk, and increases the strategic value of resilient terminals and grid investments.

SOE reform momentum and policy execution

Business confidence has improved but remains fragile, with reform progress uneven across Eskom and Transnet. Slippage on rail legislation, ports corporatisation and electricity unbundling timelines creates execution risk for PPPs, project finance, and long-horizon capex decisions.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.

Workforce bottlenecks in SHK trades

Skilled‑labor shortages in sanitary/heating/AC and related vocational pipelines constrain installation rates for heat pumps and network connections. For international firms, the bottleneck shifts value toward training partnerships, prefabrication, and service models—while increasing project delivery risk and warranty exposure.

Wettlauf Wärmepumpe gegen Fernwärme

Industrie und Versorger konkurrieren um Haushalte: Wärmepumpen-Installationskapazitäten versus Fernwärmeanschluss. Das führt zu volatilem Auftragseingang, Preisdruck und Engpässen bei Handwerk/Planung. Internationale Zulieferer müssen Kapazitäten flexibel steuern und lokale Partnernetze stärken.

FCA enforcement transparency escalation

The FCA’s new Enforcement Watch increases near-real-time visibility of investigations and emphasises individual accountability, Consumer Duty “fair value”, governance and controls. Online brokers and platforms should expect faster supervisory escalation and higher reputational and remediation costs.

Currency management and hedging conditions

RBI intervention is actively smoothing rupee volatility: net spot/forward sales around $10bn in December and sizable forward positions. For multinationals, this supports planning but reinforces the need for disciplined hedging amid tariff, oil-price, and flow shocks.

FX volatility and yen defense

Yen weakness and intervention signalling (rate checks, possible US coordination) heighten hedging costs and pricing uncertainty for importers/exporters. Policy risk rises around election-driven fiscal expectations, complicating repatriation, procurement contracts, and Japan-based treasury management.