US/EU trade enforcement risk

Vietnam’s export boom faces rising trade-remedy scrutiny. Recent U.S. antidumping/countervailing duties include hard empty capsules with 47.12% dumping and 2.45% subsidy rates, signalling broader enforcement risk. Exporters should strengthen origin compliance and diversify end-markets.

Hormuz–Red Sea shipping risk

Escalation around Iran is disrupting Gulf and Red Sea routes, with major carriers pausing transits and rerouting via the Cape. Higher war-risk premiums and longer voyages raise landed costs, delay inventory, and stress Saudi import/export scheduling and project logistics.

US–Vietnam trade deal uncertainty

Reciprocal trade-agreement talks with Washington are accelerating, but Vietnam’s record US surplus (about US$133.8bn in 2025) heightens tariff, rules-of-origin, and anti-circumvention scrutiny. Exporters should harden traceability, pricing, and compliance programs.

Regulatory capacity, corruption and compliance

Investor confidence depends on effective regulators, enforcement against organised crime, and transparent procurement. Progress such as FATF greylist removal supports financial flows, but municipal arrears, illicit connections, and governance weaknesses continue to elevate operational risk and compliance overhead.

Sectoral Section 232 tariff pressure

National-security tariffs under Section 232 remain a durable lever on steel, aluminum, autos and potentially other strategic sectors. Ongoing or new investigations can raise costs, alter competitiveness, and incentivize nearshoring or US production to preserve market access.

Tax reform transition execution risk

Implementation of Brazil’s tax reform (dual VAT-style CBS/IBS and related rules) is moving from legislation to operationalization, forcing multinational ERP, invoicing, and pricing changes. During transition, interpretation disputes and compliance complexity can raise costs and delay customs-credit recovery.

Mining policy and investment climate

Mining remains central to exports but investment is constrained by regulatory uncertainty, permitting bottlenecks, and shifting BEE expectations. South Africa’s policy perception ranking is weak (70/82). Reforms that improve licensing certainty would unlock capital for critical minerals and export growth.

Trade finance isolation and FATF blacklist

Iran remains on the FATF “call for action” blacklist, constraining correspondent banking and increasing de‑risking by global banks. This elevates AML/CFT due diligence burdens, pushes trade into barter or informal channels, and complicates receivables, escrow, and documentary trade instruments.

Data-center and digital infrastructure boom

Vietnam is attracting multi‑billion‑dollar data-center investments, including projects targeting up to USD 2bn in Ho Chi Minh City, as regional cloud demand surges. Businesses should plan for permitting complexity, power and water availability, and evolving cybersecurity and data-governance requirements.

Regional war disrupts sea lanes

Escalation involving Israel and Iran is raising war-risk insurance and triggering carrier reroutes away from Suez/Bab el-Mandeb and, at times, Hormuz, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages, increasing freight surcharges, and destabilizing delivery reliability for Israel-linked cargoes.

Oil policy drives macro volatility

Saudi-led OPEC+ decisions to adjust output amid regional conflict keep Brent highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Price swings affect fiscal space, payment cycles, and capex pacing, while energy-intensive industries and freight costs face renewed volatility across contracts and hedging strategies.

Trade deficits, taxes and fiscal pressure

Wartime budgets remain defense-heavy (71% of 2025 spending; $39.2bn deficit), with debt projected above 100% of GDP in 2026. Revenue measures (excises, bank taxes, entrepreneur VAT thresholds) can alter consumer demand, pricing and payroll economics.

Electricity reform and grid build

Ramaphosa reaffirmed Eskom unbundling and a fully independent transmission entity, unlocking private capital for transmission expansion. The grid plan targets ~R400bn/10 years (14,400km lines, 271 transformers). Execution and tariff design will determine reliability and investor confidence.

Digital sovereignty and regulated cloud

France is pushing sovereign cloud and tighter control of sensitive data for regulated sectors, reinforced by EU rules (AI Act, NIS2, DORA) and French qualification schemes. Multinationals may need EU-based processing, vendor changes, and new contracting for AI and cloud workloads.

FX management and yuan volatility

The PBOC is actively managing rapid yuan moves, scrapping the 20% FX forward risk reserve to cool appreciation after a >7% rise since April and $79.9bn January net FX inflows. This affects pricing, margins, hedging costs, and repatriation strategies for exporters and importers.

Export growth targets versus headwinds

Vietnam targets US$546–550bn exports in 2026 (+15–16%), after a 2025 record US$475bn and total trade over US$930bn. Heavy reliance on foreign-invested exporters and imported inputs increases vulnerability to demand swings, logistics shocks, and tighter standards.

EV overcapacity and trade barriers

Chinese EV scale, subsidies and price competition are triggering sustained trade defenses abroad. EU countervailing duties and negotiated “price undertakings” increase uncertainty for China-made vehicles and components, reshaping investment decisions on localization, sourcing, and market prioritization for automakers and battery supply chains.

Energy costs and industrial competitiveness

High power and input costs continue to pressure energy‑intensive sectors, driving restructurings and relocation decisions. BASF is shifting back‑office roles to Asia and targeting €2.3bn annual savings, signalling a wider trend affecting chemical, metals and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

Data sovereignty and cloud re-tendering

France will migrate Health Data Hub hosting away from Microsoft to a European provider by end-2026, reflecting stricter sovereignty expectations amid US extraterritorial-law concerns. Multinationals in regulated sectors should anticipate tighter cloud, procurement, and data-localization constraints.

Regional conflict spillovers and operational risk

Gaza and wider regional escalation periodically depress tourism, disrupt Red Sea trade, and trigger energy force majeure events. Heightened security posture can affect border logistics and corporate duty-of-care, while political risk premiums raise the cost of capital and insurance.

Parallel imports and gray-market proliferation

Sanctions have shifted trade into gray channels, exemplified by large volumes of foreign-brand vehicles moving via China as “zero‑mileage used” cars. This expands counterfeiting, warranty and IP risks, complicates aftersales obligations, and increases enforcement and contract risks for global OEM ecosystems.

Shadow fleet disruption risks

Iran’s oil exports rely on AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and permissive hubs (notably Malaysia). Recent U.S. and Indian interdictions and sanctions increase detention, demurrage, spill, and contract-frustration risk, complicating energy sourcing, chartering, and marine insurance coverage.

Expanded Section 301 enforcement

USTR is launching new Section 301 investigations targeting industrial overcapacity, forced labor, pharmaceutical pricing, and discrimination against US tech and digital goods. These probes can drive targeted tariffs and compliance demands, raising partner-country risk and reshaping sourcing decisions.

Recomposition sécuritaire et défense européenne

Paris renforce sa doctrine de dissuasion: hausse annoncée des têtes nucléaires (≈290 aujourd’hui) et coopération avec 7–8 partenaires européens, incluant exercices et éventuel déploiement de Rafale. Impacts: budgets défense, commandes industrielles, exigences de conformité export/ITAR-like.

Manufacturing incentives deepen localization

PLI schemes are scaling domestic production and exports: ₹28,748 crore disbursed, ₹2.16 lakh crore investment approved, ₹8.3 lakh crore exports, and ~14.39 lakh jobs. Electronics localization reduced mobile imports ~77%, affecting component sourcing and OEM site selection.

Minería, concesiones y críticos

El gobierno está recuperando concesiones: 1,126 canceladas (889,502 ha), 28% en áreas protegidas, y busca retornos voluntarios adicionales. En minerales críticos, Camimex estima potencial de US$43bn en seis años, pero restricciones a exploración privada y falta de refinación elevan riesgo.

China trade balancing and tariffs

Mexico imposed tariffs up to 50% on many Asian imports and held renewed trade talks with China, while U.S. pressure during USMCA review targets non-regional inputs. Firms reliant on China-linked components face policy volatility, substitution costs, and potential reputational and compliance exposure.

Foreign investment concentration in EEC

January 2026 saw 113 foreign investor permits worth 33.8bn baht; 43% went to the Eastern Economic Corridor, led by Chinese, Singaporean and Japanese capital. Clustering supports supplier ecosystems, but heightens exposure to local power, labour and infrastructure constraints.

Critical minerals and rare-earth push

Budget 2026 launched rare-earth corridors (Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) and a ₹7,280‑crore magnet incentive to cut reliance on China, which supplies over 45% of India’s rare-earth needs; faster approvals and processing capacity reshape EV, electronics, defence supply chains.

Trade controls and import compliance push

France is intensifying border and market inspections on origin, labeling, and pesticide residues, backed by new 2026 thresholds and specialized enforcement teams. Importers face higher testing, delays, and documentation demands, raising compliance costs and rejection risk.

Commodity windfall amid constraints

High gold and PGM prices are lifting mining profits and could add tens of billions of rand in taxes and royalties over 2026–2028. This supports the fiscus and currency, but mining still faces power, logistics bottlenecks, and policy certainty issues affecting expansion decisions.

Bahn-Modernisierung belastet Logistik

Sanierungen zentraler Korridore und Verzögerungen im Bauprogramm sowie Restrukturierung bei DB Cargo (geplante 6.000 Stellenabbau bis 2030) erhöhen kurzfristig Störungsrisiken für Schiene/Intermodal. Unternehmen müssen mit längeren Laufzeiten, Umroutungen und höheren Transportkosten rechnen.

USMCA review and North America risk

USMCA exemptions cushion many Canada/Mexico flows, but the agreement faces a mandatory review this year and Washington is pursuing side-deals, citing transshipment and sector disputes. Businesses should plan for rules-of-origin changes, automotive content requirements tightening, and episodic border frictions.

Regulatory tightening on tax compliance

Implementation of a unified tax registration number and expanded invoicing/record-keeping requirements increase compliance burdens, especially for multinationals with related-party transactions. Expect more audits, documentation demands (master/local files), and potential penalties impacting operating costs.

Aranceles y reglas automotrices

El sector automotriz, altamente integrado con EE. UU., sufre por aranceles y posible endurecimiento de origen. En 2024 EE. UU. compró 2.8 de 4.0 millones de autos hechos en México; las exportaciones cayeron ~3% en 2025 y se perdieron ~60,000 empleos.

Import-standards reform reshapes market access

Israel’s shift toward European-aligned import standards and expanded ‘what’s good for Europe’ pathways can lower barriers for compliant products, increase competition, and change certification workflows. Firms should reassess labeling, testing, and parallel-import strategies as rules phase in.