Mission Grey Daily Brief - July 10, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The global situation remains fraught with tensions, with escalating geopolitical conflicts, democratic backsliding, and economic woes dominating the headlines. From Russia's deadly strikes in Ukraine to the political upheaval in Kenya and the human rights crisis in Türkiye, investors and businesses face a challenging landscape. Below is an in-depth analysis of four key issues impacting the global landscape.
Russian Strikes on Ukraine
Russian forces unleashed a deadly barrage of missile strikes across Ukraine, including on a children's hospital in Kyiv, killing at least 37 civilians and injuring over 130. This attack, one of the heaviest since the war began, has prompted widespread international condemnation, with world leaders gathering at a NATO summit to discuss strengthening Ukraine's air defenses. The strikes come amid Russia's deepening military cooperation with North Korea, signaling a concerning trend for global security.
Political Upheaval in Kenya
Kenya witnessed a wave of protests against government plans to introduce wide-ranging tax hikes, with the demonstrations escalating into broader calls for addressing corruption, reducing government spending, and investing in essential services. The protests turned bloody, with at least 39 people killed and many more abducted by government agents. The government's response shifted from minor concessions to brutal crackdowns before ultimately withdrawing the bill. The protests have sparked a public awakening, with increased scrutiny of the government's handling of the country's governance and economic crisis.
Human Rights Crisis in Türkiye
Media freedom, human rights, and journalist groups are urging European governments to prioritize protecting fundamental rights and media freedoms in Türkiye. Over the past two decades, the Turkish government has captured over 90% of the media landscape, with direct control over public media and indirect control over mainstream outlets. This has resulted in widespread censorship and self-censorship, with journalists facing arrests, assaults, and smear campaigns. The situation has been exacerbated by a restrictive visa process for Turkish journalists seeking to enter EU member states, hindering their ability to build international connections.
Ethiopia's Role in the Sudan Conflict
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in Port Sudan, becoming the first foreign leader to do so since the start of the conflict between the army and paramilitary forces. The war has forced almost 10 million people from their homes and created dire humanitarian conditions. Abiy's visit is part of an effort to bring stability to the region, but it also raises questions about Ethiopia's role in the conflict, particularly given its previous alignment with the paramilitary forces.
Risks and Opportunities
Risks:
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict: The ongoing conflict poses significant risks to businesses and investors, with global economic and political instability, supply chain disruptions, and heightened geopolitical tensions.
- Political Unrest: Political upheaval, such as that seen in Kenya, can lead to social and economic instability, disruption to business operations, and increased regulatory risks.
- Human Rights Abuses: The human rights crisis in Türkiye underscores the importance of upholding democratic values and protecting fundamental freedoms. Businesses operating in countries with deteriorating human rights situations may face reputational risks and decreased investor confidence.
- Regional Conflict: Ethiopia's involvement in the Sudan conflict highlights the fragile regional stability and the potential for spillover effects, including refugee crises and economic disruptions.
Opportunities:
- Strengthened Alliances: The NATO summit and Ethiopia's diplomatic efforts present opportunities for strengthened alliances and regional stability. Businesses can benefit from increased economic cooperation and improved relations between nations.
- Economic Development: Kenya's focus on addressing economic issues and attracting foreign investment presents opportunities for businesses, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors.
- Media Freedom: The push for media freedom in Türkiye highlights the importance of a free press for investors and businesses, enabling better access to information and a more stable investment environment.
Further Reading:
A Growing Spectre of Azerbaijani Irredentism Hangs Over COP29 - Byline Times
Biden decries Russian ‘brutality’ over deadly Ukraine strikes as Nato leaders gather - The Guardian
CIA chief meets Egypt’s El-Sisi on Gaza truce efforts - Arab News
Cameroon's President Wins Backing to Delay Legislative, Local Polls - U.S. News & World Report
EU must do more to prioritise protecting media freedom and human rights in Türkiye - IFEX
Economic stagnation and plummeting ratings plague Thailand’s ruling party - asianews.network
Ethiopia's Abiy Visits Sudan's Army Chief on Red Sea Coast - U.S. News & World Report
Ethiopia: GBV in Tigray Demands Urgent Attention - Development Diaries
Here Is Why Tanzania Needs Mindset Shift to Guarantee Journalists’ Safety - The Chanzo
How Kenya's Youth, Middle Classes and Working Poor Joined Forces - New Lines Magazine
Themes around the World:
EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement
The historic EU-Mercosur agreement, signed in January 2026, eliminates tariffs on over 90% of trade between Brazil and the EU, creating the world’s largest free trade area. This is expected to boost Brazilian GDP by €6 billion by 2044, expand exports, and attract investment, but also introduces European regulatory and sustainability standards.
Major Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Delays
Canada faces critical infrastructure gaps and slow project approvals, with over $126 billion in housing-enabling infrastructure at risk and complex regulatory hurdles. These delays undermine competitiveness, impede supply chain resilience, and deter both domestic and foreign investment in key sectors.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Market Volatility
Escalating US-China rivalry, sanctions on Russia, and US military actions in Venezuela have heightened global risk aversion. These developments have triggered capital flight from emerging markets, increased currency volatility, and led to sharp corrections in equity markets, particularly in India, affecting global investment strategies.
Renewable Energy Investment Acceleration
Egypt signed $1.8 billion in renewable energy deals with Norway’s Scatec and China’s Sungrow, including Africa’s largest solar project. With a target of 42% renewables by 2030, international financing and technology partnerships are critical for energy security, industrial growth, and climate commitments.
Ruble Volatility and Financial Strain
The Russian ruble faces renewed pressure due to falling export revenues and reduced central bank interventions. Currency instability heightens risks for foreign investors and complicates cross-border transactions and financial planning.
Offshore Wind Investment Surge
The UK has secured $30 billion for 8.4 GW of offshore wind capacity, powering 12 million homes and advancing decarbonization goals. This initiative attracts private investment, supports job creation, and strengthens energy security, though grid integration and supply chain challenges persist.
Green Growth and Infrastructure Modernization
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes sustainable development, green manufacturing, and infrastructure upgrades. Major investments in renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and smart logistics offer opportunities for international partners, but also raise competitive and regulatory challenges.
US Retreat From Climate Treaties
The United States’ withdrawal from the UNFCCC and 65 other international organizations marks a decisive shift away from multilateral climate cooperation. This move risks isolating US firms from global climate finance, standards, and supply chains, impacting competitiveness and international investment.
Regulatory Overhaul and NGO Restrictions
Israel’s sweeping regulatory changes in 2026 impose stringent requirements on foreign NGOs operating in Gaza and the West Bank, restricting aid and international staff. These measures heighten compliance risks and complicate humanitarian supply chains for global organizations.
Energy Transition and Infrastructure Investment
Brazil is investing in energy transition projects, including renewable fuels and electric mobility, supported by public-private partnerships. These initiatives enhance supply chain resilience and sustainability, but execution risks and regulatory uncertainty remain.
US Tariffs and Trade Tensions
The imposition of US tariffs, particularly on automotive and manufactured goods, is straining South Africa’s export sectors. These measures threaten jobs, especially in manufacturing, and create uncertainty for investors reliant on US market access, complicating trade and investment strategies.
Foreign Direct Investment Surge
FDI in Vietnam rose 8.9% to $23.6 billion in 2025, with manufacturing accounting for 82.8%. High-tech, green industries, and logistics attract multinational corporations, reinforcing Vietnam’s role as a strategic hub in global supply chains and boosting long-term investment prospects.
Global Energy Market Realignment
Sanctions, falling oil prices, and Ukrainian attacks have pushed Russian oil exports to their lowest since 2022, with Urals crude dropping below $35 per barrel. Russia’s market share in India and China is shrinking, and clandestine shipping is rising, increasing operational risk for energy traders.
Japan’s Military Buildup Spurs Controls
Japan’s increased defense spending and security policy reforms have prompted China’s export restrictions, raising business risks in sectors linked to defense and advanced manufacturing, and signaling a more volatile regulatory environment for foreign investors.
Stricter Environmental and Import Regulations
New regulations require burn-free certification for feed corn and wheat imports, aligning with global sustainability standards. These rules increase compliance costs for importers and may disrupt agricultural supply chains, especially for animal feed and food processing sectors.
Demographic and Labor Market Pressures
Vietnam’s fast-aging population and tightening labor market threaten long-term growth. Productivity gains, workforce upskilling, and automation are urgent priorities, as labor shortages and rising costs could erode Vietnam’s competitiveness as a manufacturing and supply chain hub.
Collapse in Russian Energy Revenues
Russian oil exports have plunged by 440,000 barrels daily, with Urals crude prices falling below $35 per barrel. Energy income now accounts for only 23% of Russia’s budget, down from over 50%, threatening fiscal stability and investment attractiveness.
UK Government Pursues Diplomatic Resolution
Prime Minister Starmer has ruled out immediate tariff retaliation, emphasizing dialogue and alliance unity. The UK seeks to avoid escalation, but faces political pressure to defend national interests, balancing economic stability with transatlantic and European alliances.
Energy Transition and Supply Risks
Germany’s shift to renewables, stagnating at 58.8% of electricity in 2025, and reliance on imports from France and Denmark, exposes supply chains to volatility and higher costs. Industrial competitiveness is challenged by expensive, less predictable energy.
Suez Canal Economic Zone Expansion
The Suez Canal Economic Zone reported a 55% revenue increase and $14.2 billion in contracted investments, with new projects in industrial and port sectors. Despite recent disruptions, the zone remains pivotal for global supply chains, regional manufacturing, and Egypt’s export growth strategy.
Currency Stability Amid Economic Pressures
The Egyptian pound has shown relative stability, with the dollar trading around 47.3–47.7 EGP. However, a rising current account deficit and reliance on foreign reserves signal underlying vulnerabilities, affecting import costs, profit repatriation, and business risk assessments for international firms.
Energy Transition and Renewable Mandates
Indonesia is mandating a 10% ethanol blend in fuel by 2028 and accelerating coal-to-gas projects. These policies drive investment in renewables and biofuels, impact automotive and energy sectors, and align with decarbonization and energy security goals.
Data Protection and Regulatory Scrutiny
High-profile incidents like the Coupang data breach have intensified regulatory scrutiny on data protection and corporate transparency. International companies must strengthen compliance, risk management, and stakeholder communications to navigate South Korea’s evolving regulatory landscape.
Workforce Diversity and Inclusion Push
Corporate and regulatory focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion is intensifying. Consulting services are expanding to help organizations meet new standards, enhance innovation, and mitigate reputational risks, influencing global investment and partnership decisions.
Critical Minerals and Geopolitical Competition
Indonesia’s dominance in nickel and tin places it at the center of U.S.-China competition for critical minerals. While new trade frameworks with the U.S. offer market access, there are risks of resource dependency and the need for robust industrial policy to ensure domestic value addition and supply chain security.
Persistent Tariff and Regulatory Uncertainty
Despite new agreements, unresolved disputes over tariffs on key goods (EVs, canola, steel, aluminum) continue to disrupt supply chains and market access. The risk of retaliatory measures and regulatory unpredictability remains a significant operational challenge for international businesses in Canada.
Strategic Supply Chain Realignment
US efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and advanced manufacturing have accelerated. Initiatives with allies aim to diversify sourcing, but supply chain resilience remains challenged by geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism.
Resilient US Economic Growth Amid Global Shocks
Despite trade barriers and geopolitical uncertainty, the US economy continues to show resilience, with GDP growth above 4% in late 2025. This underpins global demand, supports the dollar, and attracts foreign investment, but also raises questions about sustainability and sectoral disparities.
Accelerated Push for Energy Imports and Diversification
Facing energy shortages, Ukraine is rapidly increasing electricity imports and seeking alternative energy sources. This shift creates opportunities for foreign energy suppliers and technology providers, but also exposes businesses to price volatility and regulatory changes in the energy sector.
Humanitarian Crisis Drives Regulatory Scrutiny
The deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, exacerbated by border closures and military actions, has triggered international concern and calls for regulatory intervention. Businesses face reputational and operational risks, with potential for new sanctions, compliance requirements, and heightened scrutiny of activities linked to the conflict.
Suez Canal Economic Zone Expansion
The Suez Canal Economic Zone reported 55% revenue growth in 2025 and attracted $14.2 billion in investments across 383 projects. Industrial and port developments are transforming the zone into a regional logistics and manufacturing hub, boosting Egypt’s appeal for foreign direct investment and supply chain integration.
New Capital City (IKN) Investment Momentum
The IKN project continues to attract new investors, with recent agreements covering culinary, commercial, and office developments. This signals growing business confidence in IKN’s role as a future economic hub, with implications for real estate, infrastructure, and supporting industries.
Institutional Revitalization and Regulatory Cooperation
Canada and China have reactivated dormant trade and investment commissions, signed MOUs on energy, agriculture, and animal health, and pledged regular ministerial dialogues. These institutional mechanisms aim to resolve trade barriers and foster regulatory alignment, impacting market access and compliance.
Industrial Policy and Market Intervention
The US is intensifying industrial policy through subsidies and intervention, particularly in energy and manufacturing. While supporting domestic sectors, these measures increase market volatility and complicate international investment decisions.
Domestic Infrastructure and Talent Pressures
Relocation of manufacturing and increased overseas investment may strain Taiwan’s domestic infrastructure and talent pool, potentially impacting innovation capacity and competitiveness at home, while intensifying the need for workforce development and policy adaptation.
Inflation Moderation and Currency Stability
Annual inflation fell to 10.3% in December 2025 from 23.4% a year earlier, mainly due to lower food prices. However, non-food inflation remains high, and the Egyptian pound is under pressure from debt and import needs, affecting consumer demand and business costs.