Regulação do mercado de carbono

O SBCE avança com regulamentação da Lei 15.042, normas infralegais previstas até dezembro de 2026 e etapas de MRV/registro até operação plena por volta de 2031. Impacta custos industriais, requisitos de reporte e competitividade em exportações expostas a políticas climáticas.

Security shocks disrupting logistics corridors

Cartel violence, roadblocks and elevated cargo theft can abruptly halt flows on Manzanillo–Guadalajara–border routes, tightening trucking capacity and raising lead times. With 82% of theft concentrated in central/Bajío regions, shippers increasingly need secure carriers, tracking and rerouting plans.

Labor enforcement, expat hiring costs

Revised labor penalties include SAR10,000 for hiring non-Saudis without permits, SAR1,000 per worker for contract e-documentation failures, and heavy unauthorized recruitment fines up to SAR250,000. This raises compliance risk and may increase labor costs amid Saudization targets.

Hormuz chokepoint and war-risk

Escalating conflict has threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for ~20 million bpd—around one-fifth of global oil consumption. Tanker traffic disruptions, record freight rates, and shrinking war-risk insurance raise costs and delay imports/exports across Asia-linked supply chains.

Workforce shocks and productivity constraints

Large reserve call-ups and security restrictions create acute labor gaps, especially for SMEs and operations requiring on-site work. Businesses report cancellations, reduced foot traffic, and mobility constraints; continuity planning must address remote-work capacity, redundancy in critical roles, and supplier payment stress.

Massive tariff refund backlog

Customs estimates ~$166bn of IEEPA duties across 53m entries from 330k importers must be refunded with interest, but systems may take ~45 days to enable processing. Timing of reimbursements affects working capital, pricing resets, and litigation exposure in trade programs.

Nearshoring constrained by policy uncertainty

Mexico’s nearshoring upside is tempered by weaker private investment and legal uncertainty after judicial reforms. Plan México targets 5.6 trillion pesos through 2030, yet new-project FDI is limited. Investors are delaying commitments, increasing hurdle rates and due diligence demands.

Anti-corruption drive hits customs/tax

KPK arrests of tax and customs officials and planned rotations signal a tougher compliance environment. While reforms may improve predictability long term, near-term disruption, stricter audits, and heightened facilitation risk can impact clearance times, VAT refunds, and trade documentation requirements.

Foreign investor pullback and exits

FDI has weakened materially and regulators report numerous foreign company closures, signalling higher perceived operating risk. Drivers include FX trapping concerns, taxation uncertainty, and slow growth. For entrants, expect higher hurdle rates, tighter partner due diligence, and preference for asset-light models.

US Tariff Volatility, Deal Reset

US Supreme Court curtailed emergency tariffs, replaced by temporary 10–15% global surcharge under Section 122, complicating the India–US interim trade pact. Export pricing, contracts, and compliance face uncertainty; sectoral Section 232 duties still penalise metals, autos.

Commerce UE-Mercosur et mesures miroirs

L’application provisoire de l’accord UE‑Mercosur ravive la contestation agricole et le débat sur l’interdiction d’importations non conformes aux normes françaises (pesticides). Risques de nouvelles exigences SPS, contrôles frontière et tensions commerciales impactant agroalimentaire et distribution.

Sanctions, geopolitics and compliance risk

Middle East escalation is driving route changes around the Cape; South African ports may see diversion opportunities but weather and capacity constraints persist. Separately, perceived ties to sanctioned states elevate secondary‑sanctions and banking de‑risking concerns for cross‑border transactions.

External financing and Gulf support

Egypt’s recovery remains tied to external funding—IMF disbursements and Gulf capital—while financing conditions can tighten quickly during risk-off episodes. Record reserves around $52.7bn provide buffers, yet large import bills and debt refinancing remain sensitive.

Maritime security and routing risk

Recurring China–Philippines incidents in the South China Sea elevate shipping and insurance risk along critical trade lanes. While disruption is usually localized, escalation could raise freight costs, delay deliveries, and prompt contingency routing and inventory buffering for firms dependent on regional maritime logistics.

FDI surge in data centers

BOI-backed projects are shifting toward data centers and high-value electronics/semiconductors, with data-center applications rising to over 600 billion baht and strong Japanese interest. Constraints are clean reliable power, faster permitting, land readiness, and skilled talent—critical for execution and site selection.

Risque budgétaire et fiscalité entreprises

La consolidation budgétaire reste contrainte par un Parlement fragmenté. Fitch maintient la note A+ mais pointe dette élevée; déficit attendu ~4,9% du PIB en 2026. Surtaxe exceptionnelle sur bénéfices prolongée, concentrée sur grands groupes, affectant plans d’investissement.

US export-control status shifts

Washington signalled removing Vietnam from its strategic export-control list, potentially easing access to dual-use technologies and advanced equipment. This could accelerate US-linked high-tech investment and supplier qualification, but also raises compliance expectations and scrutiny around end-use, re-export and security controls.

Automotive Transition and Competition

German automakers confront a costly EV transition while Chinese brands rapidly gain share in Europe; car exports to China fell about 33% in 2025 and job cuts continue. Suppliers face margin pressure, relocation risks, and retooling capex needs.

Local content rules remain decisive

TKDN requirements continue for government procurement, with a 40% minimum (TKDN+BMP) under industry rules, despite trade‑deal debate. Multinationals in telecom, electronics, and infrastructure must localize sourcing, assembly, or partnerships to qualify for projects.

Suez Canal rerouting shock

Red Sea insecurity and wider Middle East escalation are again diverting carriers around the Cape, slashing hard-currency inflows. Canal revenue fell from about $9.6bn (2023) to ~$3.6bn (2024), with officials citing ~$10bn cumulative losses.

Energy grid attacks and rationing

Repeated strikes on generation and transmission continue to drive blackouts and reliance on electricity imports. Manufacturing, cold chains, and data centers must invest in backup power, redundant connectivity, and flexible scheduling; energy-intensive projects face higher operating costs and execution risk.

Energy transition: nuclear-renewables balancing

EDF warns surplus power and weak electrification are forcing more nuclear modulation, increasing maintenance costs and affecting pricing dynamics. Uncertainty over the energy roadmap and grid demand growth impacts energy-intensive industries, PPA strategies, and project bankability.

Red Sea Logistics Hub Acceleration

Saudi authorities are expanding western-coast capacity and procedures, launching “Logistics Corridors” with ZATCA to redirect GCC and eastern-port cargo to Jeddah and other Red Sea ports; Red Sea ports exceed 18.6m TEUs annual capacity. Expect faster transit, new routing options, and corridor competition.

Minería, concesiones y críticos

El gobierno está recuperando concesiones: 1,126 canceladas (889,502 ha), 28% en áreas protegidas, y busca retornos voluntarios adicionales. En minerales críticos, Camimex estima potencial de US$43bn en seis años, pero restricciones a exploración privada y falta de refinación elevan riesgo.

HPAL sulphur shock from Gulf

Lebih dari 75% impor sulfur RI (2025) berasal Timur Tengah; penutupan/risiko Selat Hormuz mengancam pasokan untuk HPAL. Stok pabrik hanya beberapa minggu–1 bulan; harga sekitar US$500/ton naik 10–15%. Produksi MHP/battery materials dan margin smelter berisiko.

Aviation access and labor disputes

Ben Gurion’s phased reopenings and potential aviation-sector labor action increase uncertainty for executive travel, air cargo, and just-in-time shipments. Firms should diversify routing via regional hubs and pre-negotiate contingency capacity for high-value goods.

FX management and yuan volatility

The PBOC is actively managing rapid yuan moves, scrapping the 20% FX forward risk reserve to cool appreciation after a >7% rise since April and $79.9bn January net FX inflows. This affects pricing, margins, hedging costs, and repatriation strategies for exporters and importers.

EUDR e rastreabilidade agroexportadora

A Regulação Europeia Antidesmatamento (EUDR) pressiona cadeias de soja e carne a comprovar origem livre de desmatamento, com due diligence e rastreabilidade granular. Fornecedores brasileiros precisarão dados geoespaciais, segregação e auditoria, sob risco de perda de acesso ao mercado e multas contratuais.

Defense rearmament, procurement bottlenecks

Rearmament is boosting opportunities for primes and SMEs, but slow procurement limits spillover. Companies call for faster processes and broader access to funds; Berlin is pursuing secure communications (a Bundeswehr “Starlink” constellation). Defense demand reshapes manufacturing, tech, and supply chains.

Baht volatility and hedging pressure

The baht is experiencing high volatility driven by USD moves, gold-price swings, capital flows, and domestic politics. Banks warn SMEs hedging only ~50% of FX liabilities may be insufficient amid 7–8% volatility; BOT intervention nears 1.8–1.9% of GDP, nearing scrutiny thresholds.

Middle East energy shock

Japan’s heavy Middle East dependence (about 90% of oil) amplifies exposure to Iran-related price spikes. Rising crude raises inflation and operating costs; emergency stockpile releases and refilling costs add fiscal pressure, influencing logistics, manufacturing margins, and contract indexing.

Digital taxation constrained but VAT continues

Indonesia pledges not to impose discriminatory Digital Services Taxes on US platforms, potentially limiting future revenue tools and platform regulation leverage. However, non‑discriminatory VAT on e‑services (PPN PMSE) continues, shaping pricing, compliance, and market entry.

Compliance tightening after greylist exit

Following removal from the FATF grey list, authorities are intensifying tax and financial-crime compliance, including transfer pricing scrutiny and illicit trade enforcement. This improves market integrity and banking access, but raises audit, documentation, and customs-compliance costs for multinationals.

FX liquidity and repatriation risk

Low reserves and episodic controls raise risk of delayed dividend repatriation, LC constraints, and volatile PKR pricing. Recent reserve swings around external debt repayments highlight sensitivity to bilateral rollovers and IMF decisions, complicating treasury planning and supplier settlement timelines.

Energy Security: LNG and Gas Reserves

Energy resilience remains a cost and operational factor. Germany’s gas storage fell to ~20%, prompting Trading Hub Europe to spend ~€60m on extra balancing capacity. Mukran LNG terminal disruptions from Baltic ice highlighted logistics fragility; price volatility affects energy-intensive manufacturing competitiveness.

Capital controls and FX constraints

New controls require origin declarations for cash exports above roughly $100,000 and permits for gold movements, reflecting stricter currency supervision. Combined with restricted cross-border banking, these measures raise liquidity frictions, complicate treasury operations, and incentivize informal channels and de-risking.