USMCA review and tariff volatility

High‑stakes 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review occurs amid continuing U.S. sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and more, and threats of broader duties. Expect pricing, sourcing and compliance adjustments, higher contract risk, and pressure to diversify export markets.

Manufacturing exports rebound amid uncertainty

UK manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7, with export orders growing at the fastest pace in 4.5 years, led by demand from the EU, China and Middle East. Jobs still decline, and firms cite policy change and US tariffs risk—supporting trade upside but supply-chain planning volatility.

Investment screening and data sovereignty

Canada is tightening national-security scrutiny of foreign investment, especially in sensitive tech and data. The TikTok Canada decision proceeded only with legally binding undertakings on data protection, oversight and local presence, signaling higher compliance burdens and deal-closure timelines for investors.

Strategic planning: 15th Five-Year priorities

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan signals a pragmatic blend of energy security, electrification and tighter control over key sectors, while managing heavy-industry overcapacity and carbon-intensity targets. Policy-driven demand shifts will affect metals, grid equipment, and regulatory expectations for investors and suppliers.

Rising shipping and fuel volatility

Middle East conflict has lifted war-risk insurance and emergency surcharges, while Vietnam raised fuel prices twice in three days under new energy-security rules. Higher transport and energy inputs compress margins, disrupt delivery schedules, and complicate fixed-price contracts across supply chains.

Trade Policy Drives Market Volatility

US trade actions are increasingly tied to domestic fiscal, industrial, and geopolitical goals rather than narrow sector protection. That broadens exposure for international firms, as tariffs, forced-labor rules, and export restrictions can change quickly and reshape investment returns, supplier geography, and negotiation leverage.

Energy security policy and regulation

Government responses include oil‑reserve releases (Germany plans ~2.4m barrels) and possible limits on daily fuel price hikes plus stronger antitrust powers. Debate over long‑term gas contracts, storage rules, and even fracking adds regulatory volatility for energy users and investors.

Ports capacity growth and throughput

Saudi ports are scaling as regional alternatives: February container handling rose 20.89% y/y to 667,882 TEUs; transshipment +28.09% to 155,325 TEUs; ship calls +13.06% to 1,385. Red Sea ports exceed 18.6m TEU capacity, enabling hub-and-spoke realignment.

Indo-Pacific security industrial mobilisation

Australia’s security posture is tightening as allies expand defence, maritime-security, and advanced-technology cooperation (including co-production discussions). This supports defence-adjacent investment and export opportunities, but increases compliance needs around controlled technology, supply assurance, and cyber resilience across contractors.

Middle East conflict shipping disruptions

Escalation near the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting bookings and raising war-risk insurance for China-linked cargo. Some insurers may withdraw coverage; premiums and conflict surcharges are rising, and detours can add ~20 days, increasing working-capital needs and delivery uncertainty across corridors.

China trade recalibration pressures

Germany is pragmatically re‑engaging China amid stagnation and trade‑war risk. China was top partner in 2025; imports rose to €170.6bn while exports fell to €81.3bn, widening deficits. Firms face dependency management, market access friction and regulatory scrutiny.

China semiconductor supply-chain bans

A proposed FAR rule implementing NDAA Section 5949 would bar US federal procurement of electronics containing “covered” semiconductors linked to entities such as SMIC, YMTC, and CXMT, with certifications and 72‑hour reporting. Contractors must map components and redesign supply chains ahead of 2027 deadlines.

Shadow fleet maritime risk escalation

Oil exports increasingly rely on a shadow fleet with opaque ownership, weak insurance, false flags, and even security personnel aboard. Baltic detentions and re‑flagging plans heighten disruption risk, freight costs, and legal exposure for counterparties, ports, insurers, and ship‑service providers.

Risco fitossanitário na soja-China

A China elevou exigências fitossanitárias e o Brasil intensificou inspeções, levando a suspensão temporária de embarques pela Cargill. Com navios aguardando laudos e risco de redirecionamento de cargas, aumentam custos logísticos, prêmios de risco e volatilidade na cadeia.

Sanctions and shipping compliance intensity

UK enforcement focus remains high around Russia-related trade and maritime activity, illustrated by ongoing scrutiny of ‘shadow fleet’ facilitation even as some designations are revisited. Financial institutions, insurers, shipowners and commodity traders face elevated KYC/AML, screening and contract risk.

EU integration and market alignment

Ukraine deepens EU transport and trade integration: extension of EU “transport visa-free” to 2027, European-gauge rail projects, and rollout of e-freight documentation. However, EU accession timing remains uncertain, complicating long-horizon regulatory and market-access assumptions.

Immigration Squeeze Hits Labor

Tighter immigration enforcement is worsening labor shortages in construction, hospitality, and food production. With net migration possibly negative in 2025 and immigrant-heavy sectors facing higher hiring difficulty, businesses confront wage pressure, project delays, weaker capacity expansion, and operational inflexibility.

Tighter financial integrity and crypto controls

Authorities and industry are intensifying AML enforcement to curb scam and mule-account flows. Crypto operators froze 10,000+ suspicious accounts using a 24-hour “Speed Bump” on transfers ≥50,000 baht, increasing compliance burdens and frictions for legitimate cross-border payments.

Federal procurement bans China-linked chips

Proposed FAR rules (NDAA Section 5949) would bar U.S. agencies from buying products/services containing “covered” semiconductors tied to firms like SMIC, YMTC and CXMT, with certification and 72-hour reporting. Multinationals supplying government-adjacent markets must illuminate chip provenance.

Financial System Dysfunction

Banking disruption, ATM cash shortages, and the launch of a 10 million rial note underscore deep financial stress. Businesses operating in or with Iran face elevated payment failure, convertibility, liquidity, and treasury-management risks, especially as digital channels and banking confidence weaken.

Mining Surge And Critical Minerals

Vision 2030 is positioning mining as a third economic pillar, citing $2.5tn mineral wealth and targeting SR240bn ($63bn) GDP contribution by 2030. Reforms cut mining tax to 20% from 45%, expanded licensing, and boosted exploration budgets to $146m in 2025—opportunities in processing and services.

Geopolitical Conflict Threatens Shipping

Regional and external conflicts are directly affecting Taiwan’s trade environment through energy shipping disruptions and higher freight costs. Businesses with just-in-time supply chains face elevated insurance, transport, and contingency-planning requirements, especially for critical imports and export-oriented industrial production.

Jeopolitik şoklar, lojistik kesintisi

ABD-İsrail–İran savaşı Körfez hattında hava sahası kapanmaları, sınır gecikmeleri ve navlun/“war-risk” primlerinde sert artış yarattı. Türkiye’nin ~50 milyar $ Körfez ticareti ve %11 ihracat payı etkilenirken, teslim süreleri ve sigorta maliyetleri yükseliyor.

Rising tax burden and fiscal squeeze

OBR projects tax as a share of GDP rising from 36.3% to 38.3% by 2029–30, a peacetime record, alongside tighter departmental spending after 2028. Threshold freezes and new levies intensify ‘fiscal drag’, affecting labour costs, consumption, and investment planning.

Santos Port Logistics Disruptions

A 24-hour truckers’ stoppage at the Port of Santos could involve around 5,000 drivers protesting yard-access fees of roughly R$800 per day. At Latin America’s largest port, even short disruptions can delay agricultural exports, container flows, and inland supply-chain scheduling.

Data Centres Reshape Power Markets

Data centres consumed 22% of Ireland’s electricity in 2024 and could reach 31-32% by 2030-2034, tightening power availability and grid capacity. For property retrofitting and energy businesses, this raises electricity-price sensitivity, connection risk, and competition for renewable power procurement.

US-China Trade Truce Fragility

Paris talks preserved a fragile 2025 trade truce, but new US Section 301 and forced-labor probes could trigger fresh tariffs within months. Businesses face renewed uncertainty over market access, customs costs, compliance, and bilateral sourcing decisions across manufacturing and agriculture.

Customs and Trade Facilitation

Cairo introduced temporary customs relief for transit cargo, waiving Advance Cargo Information pre-registration for three months and prioritizing clearance. The move may ease EU–Gulf trade disruptions and improve throughput at Egyptian ports, but also reflects continued volatility in routing, documentation, and cross-border supply-chain planning.

Trade exposure to shipping chokepoints

Disruption risks around global energy and goods flows (e.g., Hormuz) amplify UK import cost volatility and lead-times for fuel-intensive sectors. Firms should stress-test logistics, diversify suppliers, and revisit contract clauses, freight hedging and safety-stock policies.

Microgrids Unlock Private Investment

Grid bottlenecks are driving large users toward microgrids, with Dublin hosting Europe’s first live microgrid-powered data centre and up to €5 billion of projects in development. This expands opportunities in distributed energy, storage, controls, and private infrastructure financing linked to industrial sites.

EU CBAM carbon compliance squeeze

From Jan 2026, EU importers must buy CBAM certificates (€60–100/tonne CO2) for embedded emissions. Research shows Thai EU-bound CBAM-goods exports fell 14% after 2020 announcement and 24% after 2023 rollout, with disproportionate impacts on SMEs lacking decarbonisation capacity.

Energy imports and distributed generation

Electricity imports hit a February record of 1.26 million MWh (+41% month-on-month), with reliance on Hungary and Slovakia, while firms invest in on-site generation. Expect higher operating costs, grid constraints, and rising demand for batteries, gas, and resilient power solutions.

Power Security Versus Cost

Brazil awarded a record 19 GW in a capacity auction, while studies warn another 35 GW of dispatchable power may be needed by 2035. Greater reliance on gas and coal backup improves supply security but may raise industrial electricity costs and emissions exposure.

Electricity market reform and grid

Government is accelerating electricity reform, including wheeling, more trading licences and a planned wholesale market in 2026. Yet grid congestion and looming coal retirements risk renewed outages by 2029–2030, raising costs, disrupting production, and delaying green‑energy investments.

Political reset under Anutin

Prime Minister Anutin’s new coalition brings short-term policy continuity but does not remove political risk. Businesses must track border tensions with Cambodia, economic management capacity and whether the government can restore investor confidence amid weak growth and external shocks.

Defense buildup reshapes industry

Germany plans major rearmament, targeting ~3.5% of GDP by 2030 and very large procurement programs, including a possible €10bn satellite network. This redirects fiscal capacity and industrial demand toward defense, creating opportunities for suppliers but crowding other investment.