Regional security, Hormuz risk

Military build-ups and tit-for-tat maritime actions heighten disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for roughly one-fifth of seaborne oil. Any escalation could delay shipping, spike premiums, and force rerouting, affecting chemicals, commodities, and container traffic.

Regulatory push for digital sovereignty cloud

France continues to steer sensitive workloads toward “sovereign” cloud and security certifications (e.g., SecNumCloud), affecting public procurement and regulated sectors. Non-EU hyperscalers may need partnerships or ring-fenced operations; compliance can reshape IT sourcing.

Rising carbon price on heating

Germany’s national CO₂ price increased from €55 to up to €65 per tonne in 2026, lifting costs for gas and oil heating. The trajectory supports Wärmewende investments, while impacting fuel import flows, hedging strategies, and competitiveness of fossil-based heating equipment supply chains.

Nearshoring con cuellos de energía

El nearshoring sigue fuerte por proximidad a EE.UU., pero la expansión industrial choca con límites de red eléctrica, permisos y capacidad de generación. La incertidumbre regulatoria y costos de conexión retrasan proyectos, elevan CAPEX y favorecen ubicaciones con infraestructura disponible.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

Digital regulation and data-sovereignty disputes

US concerns over platform fairness rules, network usage fees, and restrictions on exporting high-precision map data (Google) are resurfacing in trade talks. Tighter privacy enforcement after major breaches raises liability, audit, and cross-border data-transfer costs for tech-enabled firms.

Reconfiguración automotriz y China

Cierres y reestructuraciones abren espacio a fabricantes chinos. BYD y Geely buscan comprar la planta Nissan‑Mercedes (230.000 unidades/año) mientras México intenta aplazar inversiones chinas para no tensionar negociaciones con EE. UU.; impactos en cadenas regionales y compliance de origen.

Steel and aluminum tariff escalation

Higher US aluminum and steel tariffs are driving record physical premiums and import dislocations, lifting costs for autos, aerospace, construction, and packaging. Firms face increased input inflation, renegotiation of supply contracts, and pressure to qualify domestic or alternative suppliers.

E-commerce law and platform regulation

Vietnam’s Electronic Commerce Law effective July 2026 will require foreign platforms to establish legal presence, strengthen livestream and affiliate oversight, and mandate at least three years of transaction data retention. Cross-border sellers face higher compliance, tax, and takedown risks.

Steel and aluminum tariff redesign

The administration is considering redesigning Section 232 downstream metal tariffs, potentially tiering rates (e.g., ~15/25/50%) and applying them to full product value. Importers of machinery, appliances, autos, and consumer goods should model margin impacts and reprice contracts quickly.

China competition drives trade sensitivity

Rapid gains by Chinese EV brands across Europe heighten sensitivity around battery and component imports, pricing, and potential defensive measures. For France-based battery projects, this raises volatility in demand forecasts, OEM sourcing strategies, and exposure to EU trade actions.

Tight fiscal headroom and tax risk

Economists warn the Chancellor’s budget headroom has already eroded despite about £26bn in tax rises, raising odds of further revenue measures. Corporate planning must factor potential changes to NI, allowances, subsidies, and public procurement priorities.

Digital regulation and data liability

Korea is tightening rules affecting global tech firms: platform “fairness” initiatives, network-usage fee disputes, mapping-data controls, and tougher Personal Information Protection Act amendments that shift breach liability onto companies. Multinationals face higher compliance, litigation, and operational-risk exposure.

Lira Volatility and FX Liquidity

Structurally weak long-term capital inflows and limited buffers keep USD/TRY risk elevated, raising import costs and FX debt-service burdens. Market surveys still price ~51–52 USD/TRY horizons, implying ongoing hedging needs, tighter treasury controls, and higher working-capital requirements for import-dependent sectors.

Immigration crackdown labor tightness

Intensified enforcement is reducing foreign-born employment and discouraging participation, with estimates that 200,000 to over 1 million immigrants stopped working. Key sectors (agriculture, construction, services) face labor shortages, wage pressure, and slower demand growth in affected local economies.

Critical minerals de-risking drive

Budget measures and diplomacy intensify to reduce reliance on China, including rare earth corridors across coastal states and customs-duty relief for processing equipment. India is also negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, reshaping sourcing strategies.

Policy-driven supply chain resilience

Government backing for domestic manufacturing and critical inputs is rising, with funding tied to resilience, local content and export diversification. Companies can benefit via grants and offtakes, but face compliance, ESG reporting expectations, and more active screening of foreign investment.

Taiwan Strait grey-zone supply shocks

Intensifying PLA and coast-guard activity around Taiwan supports a “quarantine” scenario that could disrupt commercial shipping without open war, raising insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and delivery delays. High exposure sectors include electronics, LNG-dependent manufacturing, and time-sensitive components.

Red Sea shipping and security exposure

Saudi ports are positioning for the return of major shipping lines to the Red Sea/Bab al‑Mandab as conditions stabilize, including Jeddah port development discussions. Nevertheless, ongoing regional security volatility can still drive rerouting, insurance premia, and inventory buffering requirements.

Russian oil exposure and sanctions risk

Trade talks with the US tie tariff relief to reduced Russian crude purchases; imports already fell to ~1.0–1.2 mbpd from 2.1–2.2 mbpd peaks. Energy procurement and shipping/insurance chains face heightened compliance and price volatility sensitivities.

Defense-driven simulation procurement

Finland’s heightened security posture is accelerating procurement of training, mission rehearsal and synthetic environments across NATO-compatible standards. This expands demand for simulators, XR devices and secure networks, creating export opportunities but raising compliance, security-clearance and supply-chain assurance requirements.

XR location-based entertainment entry

New immersive entertainment venues in Helsinki signal growing consumer adoption and commercial real-estate partnerships for XR. For foreign operators, Finland offers predictable permitting and high digital readiness, but success depends on local content, labor availability and resilient import logistics for hardware.

Ports and hubs targeted abroad

EU proposals to sanction Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun terminals signal a new precedent: third-country infrastructure enabling Russian oil may be designated. This expands due diligence from Russian entities to global transshipment nodes, increasing disruption risk in Asia and the Black Sea.

Semiconductor reshoring and tech geopolitics

Washington continues pressing for more Taiwan chip capacity and supply-chain relocation, while Taipei calls large-scale shifts “impossible.” TSMC’s massive US buildout and parallel overseas fabs heighten capex needs, export-control exposure, and dual-footprint operational complexity for suppliers and customers.

Governance, anti-corruption compliance drive

Pakistan’s new governance plan targets high-risk agencies, procurement rules, AML strengthening and asset disclosures under IMF scrutiny. Improved enforcement may reduce long-term corruption risk, but near-term increases in audits, documentation and dispute resolution timelines raise operating friction.

Contratos mixtos y apertura acotada

El gobierno impulsa “contratos mixtos” con participación estatal mínima de 40% para atraer capital, ejemplificado por Macavil. Esto abre oportunidades selectivas en E&P y servicios, pero con riesgos de gobernanza, términos fiscales, ejecución y dependencia de decisiones políticas.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Tasas, inflación y costo financiero

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% ante choques por IEPS y aranceles a importaciones chinas; además elevó pronósticos de inflación (meta 3% se desplaza a 2027). Esto encarece financiamiento, altera valuaciones y afecta coberturas cambiarias y de tasas.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.

SOE liabilities and privatization pipeline

State-owned enterprises remain a major fiscal drag: SOE support reached about Rs2.079tr in FY25, while power-sector unfunded liabilities exceeded Rs2tr and circular debt neared Rs1.9tr. Privatization and restructuring create openings, but execution, labor resistance and tariff politics drive deal risk.

FDIC resolution and failure risk

Recent FDIC-led closures highlight persistent tail risk among smaller institutions with concentrated portfolios and weak controls. Failure events can freeze credit lines, interrupt payment processing, and complicate escrow and cash-management arrangements for foreign-owned subsidiaries operating across states.

CFIUS and investment screening expansion

Greater scrutiny of inbound acquisitions and sensitive data/technology deals, plus evolving outbound investment screening, increases deal uncertainty for foreign investors. Transactions may require mitigation, governance controls, or divestitures, affecting timelines and valuations in semiconductors, AI, telecom, and defense-adjacent sectors.

Trade rerouting to China

Russia’s export dependence is concentrating on China as India’s intake becomes uncertain and discounts widen (ESPO ~US$9/bbl, Urals ~US$12/bbl vs Brent). This increases buyer power, pricing volatility and settlement complexity, while complicating long-term offtake and investment planning.

UK–EU trade frictions persist

Post-Brexit trade remains exposed to SPS checks, rules-of-origin compliance and periodic regulatory updates under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Firms face continuing customs/admin costs, inventory buffers, and re-routing decisions, especially in food, chemicals, automotive and retail.