Mission Grey Daily Brief - January 12, 2026
Executive Summary
The past 24 hours have delivered a series of seismic developments with profound implications for global business and political risk. Iran is in the grip of its largest anti-government protests in years, with over 200 deaths, a nationwide internet blackout, and open threats of military retaliation against the US and Israel should foreign intervention occur. The situation has escalated to the brink of a regional crisis, with fears of a wider conflict and direct US involvement rising sharply.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war reached a new level of danger as Russia deployed its hypersonic Oreshnik missile near NATO borders, triggering international alarm and urgent diplomatic consultations. The attack targeted critical infrastructure and civilian areas, underscoring Moscow's willingness to escalate and test Western resolve.
On the corporate front, the mining industry may be on the cusp of historic consolidation. Rio Tinto and Glencore have restarted merger talks that could create the world's largest mining company, valued at up to $260 billion. The deal is driven by surging copper prices and the strategic imperative to secure resources for the energy transition and AI infrastructure.
India continues to emerge as a global tech and investment hub, with data center capacity doubling in 2025 and investor focus shifting back to its robust fundamentals as the AI hype cycle cools. These trends highlight the rebalancing of global capital flows and the growing importance of digital infrastructure in emerging markets.
Analysis
Iran: Protests, Crackdown, and the Threat of Regional Escalation
Iran is experiencing its most significant unrest since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, with demonstrations now spanning all 31 provinces. The death toll has exceeded 200, with thousands arrested and hospitals reportedly overwhelmed by casualties. The regime has responded with internet and phone shutdowns, mass arrests, and threats of the death penalty for protesters, while blaming foreign interference—particularly from the US and Israel—for the unrest.
Iran's parliament speaker has openly threatened US and Israeli military assets with retaliation if attacked, marking a dangerous escalation. President Trump has repeatedly warned of "very hard" US strikes should Iran repeat past mass killings of protesters, and US officials confirm that military options are under review. Israel is on high alert, and regional tensions are at their highest since the June 2025 Iran-Israel war, which already weakened Iran's deterrence capabilities[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]
The protests, triggered by economic collapse and the devaluation of the rial, have evolved into open calls for regime change. Notably, monarchist slogans supporting exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi have appeared, indicating a shift from economic to explicit political demands. The situation is reminiscent of the Arab Spring, but with the added risk of military escalation involving major powers. For international businesses, the risks of operating in or near Iran have increased dramatically, with supply chain, energy, and regional security implications.
Russia-Ukraine: Hypersonic Missile Escalation and NATO Alarm
Russia's recent attack on Ukraine, involving its hypersonic Oreshnik missile, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. The missile, capable of reaching speeds of Mach 10 and a range of 5,000 km, struck infrastructure in Lviv—alarmingly close to the Polish border and NATO territory. The attack resulted in civilian casualties and widespread energy outages, with Kyiv's mayor urging residents to evacuate due to heating and power failures in sub-zero temperatures[12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39]
This strike, combined with ongoing drone and missile barrages, has prompted urgent calls for international action. The UK, France, and Germany have condemned Russia's escalation, and the US has signaled support for new sanctions. The EU and US agreed on security guarantees for Ukraine, including the potential deployment of multinational forces should a ceasefire be reached—moves that Russia has branded as provocative and escalatory. The risk of direct NATO-Russia confrontation, while still low, has increased, and European energy and infrastructure assets face elevated exposure.
Mining Mega-Merger: Rio Tinto and Glencore Eye $260 Billion Deal
In the corporate sphere, Rio Tinto and Glencore have resumed merger talks that could result in the world's largest mining company, valued between $200 and $260 billion. The deal is motivated by the need to secure copper assets amid record prices (above $13,000/ton), driven by electrification, AI, and supply constraints. Glencore's coal business remains a sticking point, but Rio Tinto is reportedly open to temporarily owning these assets to facilitate the merger, with divestment possible later[28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][26][27][40]
The merger would have far-reaching implications for global commodity markets, supply chains, and ESG considerations. Regulatory hurdles, antitrust scrutiny (especially from China), and integration challenges remain, but investor sentiment is positive, with Glencore's shares up nearly 10% on the news. For global businesses, the consolidation signals both opportunity and risk, as resource nationalism, trade policy, and supply chain resilience become even more critical.
India: Data Center Boom and Investment Rotation
India's data center capacity more than doubled in 2025, reaching 387 MW IT, with absorption rising to 427 MW IT—a 103% and 5% increase year-on-year, respectively. Mumbai and Chennai lead the market, but Tier II cities are rapidly emerging as new hubs. The sector is projected to triple to over 4 GW IT by 2030, with a CAGR of 23%[38][37][39]
As global investors reassess the AI hype cycle, India is regaining focus due to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, contributing 9% to global GDP growth and projected to grow at over 6.7% annually through FY28. Foreign portfolio outflows have reversed, and India is positioned as a key market for scalable, long-term digital infrastructure investments. The implications for tech, real estate, and financial services are substantial, with India increasingly seen as a safe haven amid global volatility.
Conclusions
The world enters 2026 with a marked increase in geopolitical and economic risk. Iran's protests and the threat of regional war, the Russia-Ukraine missile escalation, and the mining sector's mega-merger all point to a period of heightened uncertainty and opportunity. For international businesses, the imperative is clear: monitor developments closely, reassess risk exposures, and prepare for rapid shifts in regulatory, security, and supply chain environments.
India's digital infrastructure boom and investor rotation highlight the ongoing rebalancing of global capital flows, while the mining sector's consolidation underscores the strategic importance of resource security in an era of electrification and AI-driven demand.
Thought-provoking questions for business leaders:
- How should global firms adjust their risk management strategies in light of potential US-Iran military escalation and the risk of regional contagion?
- What contingency plans should be in place for supply chain disruptions linked to Russia's use of hypersonic missiles and energy infrastructure attacks?
- How will the Rio Tinto-Glencore merger reshape the competitive landscape for commodities, and what does it mean for ESG and regulatory compliance?
- Is your organization prepared to capture opportunities in India's fast-growing digital infrastructure market as global investment flows shift?
Mission Grey Advisor AI will continue to monitor these themes and provide timely, actionable intelligence for strategic decision-making.
Further Reading:
Themes around the World:
Border infrastructure leverage risk
U.S. threats to restrict the Canada-funded Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge highlight how critical crossings can become bargaining chips. With Detroit handling about US$126B in truck trade value, any disruption could delay just-in-time supply chains and raise logistics costs.
Aceros, autos y reglas origen
México busca eliminar aranceles “disfuncionales” a acero/aluminio y armonizar criterios para autos en la revisión del T‑MEC. Cambios en contenido regional y cumplimiento elevarían costos de certificación, reconfigurarían proveedores y afectarían márgenes de OEMs y Tier‑1.
China tech listings and blacklists
The Pentagon’s 1260H “PLA-linked” list changes—briefly adding firms like Alibaba, BYD and Baidu—highlight fast-moving US-China tech restrictions. Even provisional designations can trigger investor pullback, procurement exclusions, and pre-sanctions derisking across capital markets and partnerships.
FCA enforcement transparency escalation
The FCA’s new Enforcement Watch increases near-real-time visibility of investigations and emphasises individual accountability, Consumer Duty “fair value”, governance and controls. Online brokers and platforms should expect faster supervisory escalation and higher reputational and remediation costs.
India–EU FTA reshapes access
India and the EU signed a major free trade agreement expected to reduce or eliminate tariffs on most traded goods by value and deepen standards alignment. This expands market access and diversification options, pressuring competitors and influencing supply-chain site selection and investment sequencing.
Monetary easing amid sticky services
UK inflation fell to 3.0% in January while services inflation stayed elevated near 4.4%, keeping the Bank of England divided on timing of rate cuts. Shifting borrowing costs will affect sterling, financing, consumer demand, and capex planning.
USMCA review and North America risk
A July 1 USMCA mandatory review, White House criticism of “flaws,” and periodic Canada/Mexico tariff threats elevate uncertainty for deeply integrated auto, agri-food, and industrial supply chains. Companies should stress-test rules-of-origin compliance, nearshoring plans, and contingency sourcing.
Critical minerals leverage and reshoring
U.S. policy increasingly links trade and security to critical minerals and domestic capacity. Officials explicitly frame rare earths and magnets as weaponized supply points, reinforcing incentives for reshoring and allied sourcing, and pressuring firms to redesign inputs and secure non-China supply alternatives.
Currency volatility and multiple rates
Exchange‑rate distortions and attempted unification efforts have fueled dollar demand and rial depreciation, amid allegations of delayed oil‑revenue repatriation. This elevates pricing uncertainty, contract renegotiations, and payment risk for importers/exporters, and strengthens grey‑market channels for procurement and settlement.
LNG export acceleration and energy leverage
Policy has shifted toward faster approvals and “regular order” for non‑FTA LNG export permits, supporting 15–20 year contracting with Europe and Asia. This boosts US energy geopolitics, but creates competitiveness and price-risk considerations for energy‑intensive manufacturers globally.
Red Sea routing volatility persists
Carrier reversals on Suez/Red Sea transits underscore persistent maritime insecurity and schedule unreliability. For U.S. importers and exporters, this implies longer lead times, higher inventory buffers, potential demurrage/warehousing costs, and fluctuating ocean capacity and rates.
Sanctions-linked energy procurement risk
U.S. tariff relief is tied to India curbing Russian crude purchases, with monitoring and possible tariff snapback. Refiners face contractual lock-ins and limited alternatives (e.g., Nayara). Energy-intensive sectors should plan for price volatility and sanctions compliance.
Monetary easing, inflation volatility
Bank Rate is 3.75% after a close 5–4 vote, with inflation about 3.4% and forecasts near 2% from spring. Shifting rate-cut timing drives sterling moves, refinancing costs, commercial property valuations, and UK project hurdle rates for investors.
Nearshoring con cuellos de energía
El nearshoring sigue fuerte por proximidad a EE.UU., pero la expansión industrial choca con límites de red eléctrica, permisos y capacidad de generación. La incertidumbre regulatoria y costos de conexión retrasan proyectos, elevan CAPEX y favorecen ubicaciones con infraestructura disponible.
Treasury market liquidity drains
Large Treasury settlements and heavy auction calendars can pull cash onto dealer balance sheets, reducing liquidity elsewhere. Tightened repo and margin dynamics raise volatility across risk assets, complicate collateral management, and increase the chance of disruptive funding squeezes for corporates.
Red Sea shipping and security exposure
Saudi ports are positioning for the return of major shipping lines to the Red Sea/Bab al‑Mandab as conditions stabilize, including Jeddah port development discussions. Nevertheless, ongoing regional security volatility can still drive rerouting, insurance premia, and inventory buffering requirements.
Port expansion and logistics scaling
Vietnam is investing heavily to become a regional logistics hub. Seaport system investment needs are estimated at VND 359.5 trillion (US$13.8bn) by 2030, while Hai Phong and Cat Lai report strong TEU growth, reducing lead-time risk but stressing hinterland links.
Russia sanctions and maritime enforcement
London is weighing stronger enforcement against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” including potential tanker seizures under sanctions law, amid NATO coordination. This raises compliance, insurance, and routing risks for shipping, energy traders, and any firms exposed to sanctioned counterparties.
Förderlogik und KfW-Prozesse im Wandel
KfW vereinfacht Förderprogramme, während Budgets und Kriterien (z. B. hohe Zuschussquoten bis 70% beim Heizungstausch) politisch und fiskalisch unter Druck stehen. Für Anbieter und Investoren steigen Planungsrisiken, Vorfinanzierungsbedarf und die Bedeutung förderfähiger Produktkonfigurationen.
Carbon competitiveness policy uncertainty
Industrial carbon pricing (OBPS and provincial systems) remains central to decarbonization incentives, but is politically contested. Potential policy shifts create uncertainty for long-horizon projects in steel, cement, oil and gas, and clean tech, affecting capex, compliance costs, and supply contracts.
Security, vandalism and criminality risks
Persistent cable theft and rail vandalism raise insurance, security and maintenance costs and deter private participation in logistics. Broader crime elevates risk for warehousing, trucking and staff mobility, requiring fortified facilities, vetted contractors and robust business-continuity planning.
Durcissement vis-à-vis de la Chine
Rapports publics et débats politiques évoquent un bouclier commercial, avec l’idée de droits de douane élevés pour contrer la concurrence chinoise (coûts 30–40% inférieurs). Les entreprises doivent anticiper contrôles, exigences d’origine, et tensions sur approvisionnements critiques.
Nickel quotas reshape supply
Jakarta is tightening nickel mining RKAB quotas, slashing major producers’ 2026 allowances and targeting national output around 260–270 million tons versus 379 million in 2025. Ore shortages may boost imports, alter battery-material supply chains, and raise project execution risk.
Palm biodiesel mandate B40
Mandatori biodiesel berbasis sawit dipertahankan di B40 sepanjang 2026 (PP No.40/2025) dengan rencana transisi ke B50. Kapasitas terpasang 22 juta KL, alokasi 16,5 juta KL; 2025 realisasi ~96% target. Kebijakan ini mempengaruhi ketersediaan CPO untuk ekspor, harga domestik, dan ESG risiko deforestasi.
Nickel governance and reporting gaps
Regulators disclosed a major Chinese-linked nickel smelter failed to submit mandatory investment activity reports, weakening oversight of capital, production, taxes, and environmental compliance. This heightens governance and ESG due-diligence needs for counterparties in Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming ecosystem.
Federal shutdown and budget disruption risk
Recurring funding lapses and DHS budget disputes can delay permits, procurement, rulemaking, and infrastructure programs. Contractors and regulated firms should plan for payment delays, staffing disruptions at agencies, and slowed approvals—particularly in security, immigration, and critical-infrastructure oversight.
Energy insecurity and high costs
Gas storage fell below 30% in early February, with some Bavarian sites near-empty, boosting LNG reliance and price volatility. Elevated energy costs threaten energy‑intensive production, contract pricing, and Germany’s investment appeal versus the US and Asia.
Red Sea corridor security exposure
Regional maritime insecurity continues to disrupt the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb corridor, raising insurance, rerouting, and lead-time risks for Saudi gateways like Jeddah. Even with port upgrades, exporters and importers should plan for volatility in schedules, freight rates, and inventory buffers.
Pemex: deuda, liquidez y socios
Pemex bajó deuda a US$84.500m (‑13,4%) pero Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio ~US$7.000m en 2026‑27 y dependencia fiscal. Emitió MXN$31.500m localmente para vencimientos 2026 y amplía contratos mixtos con privados; riesgo para proveedores y energía industrial.
Cross-border corridor and border security
Thailand and Myanmar are exploring a Tachilek–Mae Sai transit corridor to move Thai fruit to China via Myanmar and expand bilateral flows. However, periodic border tensions and security policies can disrupt checkpoints, insurance costs, and delivery reliability for border supply chains.
Mega logistics buildout: Land Bridge
The THB990bn ‘Land Bridge’/Southern Economic Corridor plan could tender within four years under a PPP Net Cost model, linking Andaman and Gulf ports plus rail/motorway. If executed, it reshapes regional routing, distribution footprints and industrial-site valuations across Thailand.
Section 232 sector tariffs persist
Despite the IEEPA ruling, Section 232 “national security” tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and more remain. These levies shape sourcing and plant-location decisions, raise input costs, and create cross-border friction—especially for automotive and metals supply chains.
Sanctions and compliance exposure regionally
Israel’s geopolitical positioning—amid Iran-related tensions and complex regional alignments—heightens sanctions-screening, export-control and counterparty risks. Multinationals face enhanced due diligence needs around dual-use goods, defense-linked supply, financial flows and third-country intermediaries.
US reciprocal tariff deal pending
Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.
Economic security ‘club’ trade blocs
US-led ‘invitation-only’ economic security agreements—starting with critical minerals—are becoming central to market access via subsidies, guaranteed purchases, and possible tariffs on non-members. Australia must balance participation benefits against retaliation risk from excluded major partners.
Ports and rail logistics bottlenecks
Transnet’s recovery is uneven: rail volumes are improving, but vandalism and underinvestment keep capacity fragile. Port congestion—such as Cape Town’s fruit-export backlog near R1bn—threatens time-sensitive shipments, raises demurrage, and pushes costly rerouting across supply chains.