Net-zero investment and grid bottlenecks

The UK is accelerating clean-power buildout, citing £300bn+ low‑carbon investment since 2010 and targets of 43–50GW offshore wind by 2030. Opportunities grow across supply chains, but grid connection delays and network upgrades remain material execution risks.

Persistent Section 232 sector tariffs

National-security tariffs under Section 232 remain on steel, aluminum, autos, copper, lumber and select furniture products, independent of the IEEPA ruling. These targeted levies reshape sourcing and nearshoring decisions, complicate automotive/metal supply chains, and sustain retaliation risk from partners.

Institutional and legal-policy volatility

Moves by the legislature to influence Constitutional Court appointments and broader governance debates underscore institutional risk. For investors, this can translate into less predictable judicial review, permitting outcomes, and enforcement consistency—especially in regulated sectors like mining, environment, and infrastructure.

Won volatility and capital flows

The won remains sensitive to policy and portfolio shifts, with a 5.2% decline since May and scrutiny from U.S. Treasury. The National Pension Service’s 1,438tn won AUM and 0% FX hedging could become a “game changer,” affecting hedging costs and pricing for cross-border firms.

Electricity reform and tariff shock

Eskom restructuring remains contested, but Ramaphosa reaffirmed an independent transmission entity and 2026 transmission tenders. Meanwhile Nersa-approved hikes of ~8.8% in 2026/27 and 2027/28 raise input costs, affecting energy-intensive industry, pricing and investment.

Nickel quota cuts, ore scarcity

Indonesia is slashing nickel ore RKAB quotas—targeting ~250–260m wet tons vs 379m in 2025—and ordering major mines like Weda Bay to cut output. Smelters may face feedstock deficits, driving imports (15.84m tons in 2025) and price volatility.

Canada–China trade recalibration

Ottawa is cautiously deepening China ties via sectoral deals, including canola concessions and limited EV access, to diversify exports. This invites U.S. political backlash and potential tariff escalation, complicating market-entry, compliance, and reputational risk management for multinationals.

Volatilité budgétaire et dette

Après l’adoption d’un budget par décret, le déficit 2026 est projeté autour de 5,4% du PIB, avec objectifs de consolidation contestés. Pour les entreprises, cela augmente l’incertitude fiscale, la pression sur dépenses publiques et les risques de volatilité des taux.

US reciprocal tariff deal pending

Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.

Oil exports via shadow fleet

Iran sustains crude exports through opaque “dark fleet” logistics, ship-to-ship transfers, and transponder manipulation, with China absorbing most volumes. Intensifying interdictions and seizures increase freight, insurance, and counterparty risk, threatening sudden disruption for traders, refiners, and shippers.

High housing and rate-stability focus

The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates at 2.50% through 2026 as Seoul apartment prices rise for 55 straight weeks and FX risks dominate. Tighter macroprudential bias can constrain credit availability, affecting real estate, consumer demand, and project financing assumptions.

Semiconductor-led export concentration

Exports surged 33.9% year-on-year in January, with semiconductor shipments up 103%, sustaining a 12-month surplus streak ($8.74bn in January). Heavy reliance on chips heightens exposure to AI-cycle volatility, export controls, and any U.S. or China tech trade tightening.

Higher-for-longer rate uncertainty

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and signalled data-dependent risk of further tightening as inflation stays above target. Higher borrowing costs and a firmer AUD affect capex timing, consumer demand, and hedging for importers and exporters.

Aceros, autos y reglas origen

México busca eliminar aranceles “disfuncionales” a acero/aluminio y armonizar criterios para autos en la revisión del T‑MEC. Cambios en contenido regional y cumplimiento elevarían costos de certificación, reconfigurarían proveedores y afectarían márgenes de OEMs y Tier‑1.

IMF program and policy conditionality

The IMF board review may unlock about $2.3bn, anchoring exchange-rate flexibility, fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Outcomes influence sovereign risk, access to external financing and FX liquidity, shaping import capacity, profit repatriation, and investor confidence in Egypt.

War finance and external funding

The budget remains war-dominated: 2025 spending hit $131.4bn with 71% for defence and a $39.2bn deficit; debt is projected near 106% of GDP in 2026. Business faces tax-policy shifts, payment delays, and heightened sovereign-risk sensitivity.

US tariff shock and reorientation

Reports indicate a steep US reciprocal tariff (cited at 36%) has raised urgency for export diversification, local value-add, and BOI support measures. Firms face margin pressure, potential order diversion, and renewed interest in rules-of-origin planning and US-facing compliance.

Oil export revenues weakening sharply

January oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to 393bn rubles ($5.1bn) from 587bn in December and 1.12tr in Jan 2025. Wider Urals discounts and disrupted India flows compress margins, increasing fiscal pressure and policy unpredictability for businesses operating in Russia.

Tech industrial policy and AI compute

The UK is pushing advanced computing and semiconductor capability. Fractile plans £100m investment over three years, including a Bristol engineering and test facility, underscoring incentives and procurement focus. Opportunities rise for R&D, but export controls, talent scarcity, and funding selectivity shape market entry.

Palm oil governance and enforcement risk

Authorities arrested officials and executives over alleged manipulation of crude palm oil export classifications to evade domestic market obligations and levies, with estimated state losses up to Rp14.3 trillion. Tighter enforcement could disrupt permitting, raise compliance costs, and increase legal exposure in agribusiness.

Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

Strategic shipping consolidation uncertainty

The proposed $4.2bn Hapag-Lloyd acquisition of Israel’s Zim faces government ‘golden share’ scrutiny, labor action, and security objections. Outcomes affect Israel’s guaranteed wartime import capacity, carrier options, freight pricing, and resilience planning for import-dependent industries.

Banking isolation and AML/FATF constraints

Iran’s limited correspondent banking access and heightened AML risk—reinforced by FATF-related restrictions—constrain trade finance, L/Cs, and settlement options. Firms may rely on costly intermediaries or shadow channels, elevating fraud, seizure, and compliance risk for global groups.

Aid conditionality and fiscal dependence

Ukraine’s budget is heavily war-driven (KSE: 2025 spending US$131.4bn; 71% defence/security; US$39.2bn deficit) and relies on partner financing. EU approved a €90bn loan for 2026–27 and an IMF $8.1bn program is pending, but disbursements hinge on reforms and compliance.

Shadow fleet interdictions disrupt logistics

Western navies are boarding and seizing “stateless” tankers; Windward expects ~120 vessels to reflag to Russia. Freight rates, insurance availability, and port access are becoming more volatile, raising delivery uncertainty for Russian-linked cargoes and counterparties worldwide.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening via new designations of entities and vessels tied to Iranian oil/petrochemicals, with discussion of tanker seizures. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for shippers, traders, insurers, ports, and banks handling Iran-linked cargo or payments.

Border logistics and bridge uncertainty

U.S. threats to delay the Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge—despite its strategic role in a corridor handling about $126B in truck trade value—add operational risk. Firms should plan for border congestion, routing redundancy, and potential policy-linked disruptions at ports of entry.

Aviation resilience and competition risk

Regulators are tightening oversight after wartime capacity shocks: El Al faces a potential NIS 121m fine for ‘excessive’ pricing when its share exceeded 50–70% after Oct. 7. Route availability, fares, and travel-risk policies remain sensitive for multinationals.

State-asset sales and IPO pipeline

Government plans to transfer 40 SOEs to the Sovereign Fund and list 20 on the exchange, aligning with the State Ownership Document. Expected 2026 IPO momentum (e.g., Cairo Bank) creates entry points for strategic investors and M&A, but governance and pricing matter.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

The EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands energy, shipping, banking, and trade controls (including shadow-fleet listings and maritime services bans). Ukraine-linked firms face tighter due diligence on counterparties, routing, and dual-use items; enforcement pressure increases financing and logistics friction regionwide.

Disinflation and rate-cut cycle

Inflation has eased into the 1–3% target, with recent readings near 1.8% and markets pricing further Bank of Israel rate cuts. Lower borrowing costs may support demand, but a stronger shekel can squeeze exporters and reshuffle competitiveness across tradable sectors.

Semiconductor reshoring and subsidies

Japan is expanding advanced chip capacity and clusters—TSMC plans include 3nm production in Kumamoto with sizable public support—boosting local supplier demand, equipment imports, and infrastructure needs. Investors face opportunities, but also constraints from labor, water, permitting, and geopolitical export rules.

Clean-energy localization requirements

Industrial policy and tax credits increasingly favor North American and allied-country content, tightening rules on “foreign” supply chains. Firms in batteries, EVs, solar, and critical minerals must document provenance, redesign sourcing, and manage credit eligibility risk in project economics.

Cross-strait coercion and shipping

Rising PRC air–naval activity and ‘quarantine’ style coercion around Taiwan increases shipping and war-risk insurance costs, threatens port throughput, and creates disruption risk for time-sensitive imports (especially LNG) and export logistics, affecting continuity planning and contract clauses.

Choques comerciais no agronegócio

Novas medidas de China e México sobre carne bovina alteram fluxo: a China impõe cota de 1,1 milhão t a 12% e excedente com sobretaxa de 55% (até 67% efetivo); México taxa acima de 70 mil t. Exige diversificação de destinos e ajustes na cadeia.

Oil revenues squeeze and discounts

Russia’s oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to about 393 billion rubles in January, with Urals trading at steep discounts and buyers demanding wider risk premia. Falling proceeds drive tax hikes and borrowing, raising payment-risk, contract renegotiations, and counterparty resilience concerns for exporters and suppliers.