US tariffs and FTA volatility

Rapidly shifting US tariff regimes after court rulings and temporary 10–15% surcharges are forcing Indian exporters to reprice contracts, diversify markets, and revisit the interim India–US deal; parallel EU FTA opportunities still face heavy non‑tariff measures like CBAM compliance burdens.

Fuel-market regulation and enforcement

Authorities are tightening oversight of minimum fuel reserves, anti-hoarding enforcement, and preparing a new fuel-trading decree while rolling out E10 biofuel from June 1, 2026. Retail disruptions and compliance checks can create short-term distribution risk for logistics, aviation, and industrial buyers.

Energía y sesgo proestatales

Washington critica medidas que favorecen “campeones nacionales” en petróleo, gas y electricidad, afectando inversionistas. Para empresas intensivas en energía, el marco regulatorio y permisos siguen siendo determinantes para costos, confiabilidad de suministro y viabilidad de proyectos industriales.

Cross-border data rules under ART

ART RI–AS memperkuat arus data lintas batas; Indonesia diminta tidak membatasi penyimpanan/pemrosesan data (mis. asuransi) di luar negeri. Ini meningkatkan efisiensi cloud dan menarik investor digital, tetapi menambah risiko kepatuhan UU PDP, akses regulator, serta ketahanan operasional saat insiden siber/geopolitik.

Russia sanctions and compliance expansion

Australia issued its largest Russia sanctions package since 2022, targeting 180 individuals/entities, shadow-fleet vessels, and—newly—crypto facilitators. Multinationals must tighten screening, shipping due diligence, and payment controls, especially in energy, maritime logistics, and fintech.

Cross-border compliance and extraterritoriality

China’s export-control architecture increasingly targets end users and third-party transfers, extending compliance exposure beyond its borders. Multinationals and regional suppliers must strengthen screening, end-use documentation, and contract clauses to avoid penalties and sudden supply interruptions.

Automotive Transition and Competition

German automakers confront a costly EV transition while Chinese brands rapidly gain share in Europe; car exports to China fell about 33% in 2025 and job cuts continue. Suppliers face margin pressure, relocation risks, and retooling capex needs.

US-Vietnam ties deepen rapidly

Vietnam’s Party chief visit to the US yielded cooperation deals worth USD 37.2bn spanning tech, digital transformation, aviation, healthcare and finance. NVIDIA’s planned AI R&D and computing buildout and expanding US interest in logistics near Long Thanh airport could accelerate reshoring diversification and raise regulatory scrutiny expectations.

Sanctions compliance and Russia leakage

Reports show sanctioned-brand vehicles (including Japanese marques) reaching Russia via China through “zero-mileage used” reclassification, complicating export-control compliance. Multinationals should tighten distributor controls, end-use checks, and auditing to reduce enforcement, reputational, and penalties risk.

Freight logistics bottlenecks and reform

Transnet’s high debt and equipment failures keep rail volumes below targets, constraining bulk exports. However, reforms—private rail access, Durban pier concessions, and new terminals like Ngqura manganese—can improve throughput, reduce demurrage, and reshape supply-chain routing decisions.

USMCA review and North America rules

USMCA exemptions shield much trade, but the agreement is under mandatory review and political pressure. Businesses should expect potential rule-of-origin tightening, sector carve-outs, and enforcement disputes, affecting auto, energy and agriculture supply chains across North America.

Corporate governance reform accelerates

Toyota’s potential ~¥3tn cross‑shareholding unwind signals intensifying Tokyo Stock Exchange and regulator pressure to boost capital efficiency. Expect more buybacks, stake sales, and activism—altering control dynamics, partnership stability, and entry via equity positions.

Supply-chain diversification accelerates

Geopolitical risk is pushing major buyers and contract manufacturers to diversify production to India, Vietnam, and the US, while Taiwanese champions expand abroad. This reshapes supplier qualification, lead times, and capex plans—creating opportunities for new regional ecosystems.

Investment facilitation credibility gap

Pakistan’s SIFC is viewed as a coordination forum without statutory power to bind provinces, regulators or courts, limiting conversion of interest into FDI. Investors face fragmented approvals and weak aftercare, increasing execution risk for greenfield projects, SEZ plans and PPP pipelines.

Auto transition, supply-chain reshoring

Germany’s auto ecosystem is under strain from slow EV uptake and high domestic costs. Baden‑Württemberg lost 32,450 metal/electrical jobs in 2025; Bosch plans ~13,000 cuts by 2030. Production localization to North America/China pressures suppliers and new investment decisions.

Domestic gas pricing and allocation

Industri mendorong batas harga LNG domestik ≤US$9/MMBtu dan pembatasan substitusi regasifikasi (≤15% alokasi PJBG) agar daya saing manufaktur terjaga. Ketidakpastian harga/volume gas memengaruhi keputusan investasi pabrik, kontrak energi, serta risiko biaya untuk operasi intensif energi.

Defense spending and mobilization effects

Taiwan plans higher defense outlays (discussions of surpassing 3% of GDP by 2026) amid political budget frictions. Increased procurement can benefit aerospace, cyber, and dual-use sectors, but may tighten labor markets, alter regulations, and elevate continuity planning needs.

Sanctions escalation and enforcement tightening

EU and Ukrainian sanctions broaden to banks, metals, chemicals, maritime services and shadow-fleet actors, while enforcement targets third-country facilitators. Businesses must strengthen screening, end-use controls and maritime due diligence to avoid secondary exposure and shipment delays.

Renewables trade friction, re-routing

US Commerce set preliminary countervailing duties around 125.87% on India-origin solar cells, disrupting a fast-growing export channel. Firms may pivot to using imported cells for India assembly or redirect volumes, reshaping sourcing, margins and project timelines.

Middle East shipping disrupts inputs

Escalating Gulf/Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens sulphur supplies; Indonesia imports ~75% from the Middle East for HPAL sulphuric acid. Stockpiles reportedly cover 1–2 months; prices near $500/ton rose 10–15%, risking near-term production curtailments and contract disruptions.

Aturan halal impor AS diperdebatkan

Dalam ART, beberapa produk manufaktur AS (kosmetik, alat kesehatan, dll.) berpotensi dibebaskan dari sertifikasi/pelabelan halal, memicu kritik lembaga halal domestik. Ketidakpastian implementasi dapat memengaruhi strategi masuk pasar, risiko reputasi, serta persyaratan dokumentasi rantai pasok untuk produsen lokal dan importir.

Post-election coalition policy direction

A new multi-party coalition around Bhumjaithai is forming after February elections, reducing near-term political deadlock but reshaping ministerial priorities. Watch budget timing, industrial policy, and regulatory continuity, especially for infrastructure approvals and investment promotion decisions impacting FDI pipelines.

Oil exports to China dependence

Iran’s oil revenue increasingly relies on China, which buys over 80% of Iran’s shipped crude, often via opaque logistics. Crackdowns or shipping disruption at Kharg Island/Hormuz can abruptly reduce supply, shift price discounts, and create volatility for Asian refiners and freight markets.

Geopolitical hedging and sanctions exposure

Riyadh is expanding economic outreach, including openness to Russia-linked business subject to sanctions screening. Companies face higher compliance needs around beneficial ownership, export controls, and secondary-sanctions risk—especially for dual-use tech, finance, and defense-adjacent supply chains.

Logistics chokepoints and Transnet fragility

Ports and rail constraints remain a binding growth and export risk. Treasury flags Transnet’s weak cash position despite lower losses, while infrastructure funding targets key coal and iron‑ore corridors. Persistent congestion raises costs, delays shipments, and reshapes supply-chain routing.

Durcissement e-commerce transfrontalier

La taxe française de 2€ sur les petits colis <150€ venant de pays hors UE vise les plateformes chinoises (97% des envois en 2025). Elle peut relever coûts d’import, modifier flux logistiques et accélérer l’entreposage et la distribution intra-UE.

Sanctions, geopolitics and compliance risk

Middle East escalation is driving route changes around the Cape; South African ports may see diversion opportunities but weather and capacity constraints persist. Separately, perceived ties to sanctioned states elevate secondary‑sanctions and banking de‑risking concerns for cross‑border transactions.

Defence spending boom and localisation

Defence outlays are projected above €108 billion in 2026, benefiting German primes and suppliers and accelerating capacity expansion in munitions, vehicles, sensors and shipbuilding. However, EU joint-procurement rules and ‘buy-European’ politics may constrain non-EU vendors and partnerships.

Logistics disruption and port congestion risks

European port congestion, vessel diversions and labour disruptions continue to pressure UK inbound/outbound lead times and inventory buffers. Businesses reliant on just-in-time supply chains should diversify routings, build safety stock, and stress-test contracts for demurrage, delays and force majeure.

Semiconductor export controls tightening

Taiwan’s chip sector faces intensifying geopolitics: proposed legislative oversight of advanced chip-technology exports and expanding US global AI-chip licensing could constrain shipments, complicate end-user verification, and reshape fab location decisions—affecting capacity allocation, lead times, and customer qualification processes.

EU market integration and regulation

Ukraine is deepening alignment with EU rules and seeking accelerated accession, but EU capitals resist fast-track timelines. Progressive integration could expand single-market access (transport, digital, customs) while increasing compliance burdens, audit requirements, and regulatory change velocity.

Maritime risk and rerouting costs

Rising security risk in key corridors is prompting carrier reroutes around southern Africa, longer transit times, and higher war-risk premiums. China-linked trade feels knock-on effects via schedule unreliability, working-capital strain, and increased freight and insurance costs.

US–Japan strategic investment trade-offs

Phase-one projects in a $550bn US–Japan investment initiative include a $33bn, 9.2GW Ohio gas plant plus US export infrastructure. The package links market access and tariff mitigation to outward FDI, influencing capex planning, local-content, and political risk management.

AI chip export licensing worldwide

Draft rules would require U.S. approval for most global exports of Nvidia/AMD AI accelerators, with tiered thresholds, site visits and host-government assurances. This raises uncertainty for data-centre projects worldwide and forces suppliers to redesign sales, contracting and compliance.

Tech self-reliance and subsidy push

The new Five-Year Plan prioritizes tech sovereignty, including AI, semiconductors, robotics and advanced manufacturing, backed by rising R&D and state financing. For foreign firms this means fiercer subsidized competition, localization pressure, and shifting market access in strategic sectors.

Tax reform push and VAT changes

A sweeping FY2026/27 package targets simplification, stronger compliance and faster VAT refunds, alongside property-tax reforms and expanded e-filing. While intended to rebuild trust, changes can alter effective tax burdens and cash flow, especially for VAT-intensive manufacturers, logistics, and services firms.