Mission Grey Daily Brief - November 21, 2025
Executive summary
In the past 24 hours, the global political and business landscape was defined by dramatic developments on three major fronts. First, US-China relations shifted toward de-escalation, with a landmark one-year trade truce easing tariffs, export controls, and regulatory pressures—bringing relative stability to global supply chains. In Ukraine, a new wave of military and diplomatic activity unfolds as the US greenlights $105 million in military aid, Ukraine executes crippling attacks on Russian Black Sea oil infrastructure, and momentum grows toward a fresh peace framework, albeit with steep territorial and security concessions. Meanwhile, in Argentina, President Javier Milei celebrates two years in office with ambitious promises for deeper second-generation reforms after a decisive election win, triggering cautious optimism and new fiscal challenges. Each of these events signals emerging opportunities and risks for international businesses operating in an increasingly turbulent and interconnected world.
Analysis
US-China trade truce: Relief for global business, but underlying risks persist
After months of tariff uncertainty and deteriorating bilateral relations, the United States and China have agreed on a one-year suspension and reduction of several key trade barriers. Effective from November 10, fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports dropped from 20% to 10%, and Section 301 exclusions covering hundreds of products were extended through November 2026. Maritime surcharges and shipbuilding sanctions were also paused, while China reciprocated by suspending recent retaliatory tariffs, restoring exports of critical minerals, and facilitating smoother customs clearance for US firms. The result is the most stable US-China trade environment in nearly a year, offering businesses rare long-term visibility for budgeting, procurement, and supply chain strategy. [1][2][3][4]
However, while the truce restores predictability, underlying risks cannot be discounted. Beijing's five-year policy plan, discussed last month, signals intensifying efforts for "high-quality development," indigenous innovation, and consolidating the military-technological nexus—potentially heightening future competition and regulatory hurdles for foreign companies. [5] Forced labor, state control, and intellectual property risks remain endemic to China’s political and business landscape, and US importers are warned to maintain diligence, supply chain transparency, and risk-mitigation practices. The CBP and DOJ are also leveraging advanced AI tools to catch tariff evaders, particularly transshipment through Southeast Asia. [2] While short-term stability is welcome, companies must remain agile and prepared for swift reversals or escalations.
Ukraine-Russia war: Black Sea blockade, US military aid, and renewed peace attempts
Ukraine has stepped up its campaign against Russia's economic and energy infrastructure, executing precision drone and missile strikes on the critical oil ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse. These attacks, supported by Western-supplied systems, led to multi-day halts in Russian oil exports—a blow to Moscow's oil-dependent budget and a temporary jolt to global prices. [6][7][8] Russia retaliated with mass drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, targeting infrastructure just as winter sets in, while Poland and Romania heightened military alertness in response to cross-border incidents. [9][10]
Amid intensifying military action, diplomatic efforts gained traction. Pentagon officials and a US Army delegation visited Kyiv, signaling high-level engagement with Ukrainian leadership and exploring options for a negotiated settlement. Reports suggest the US has presented a 28-point draft peace plan, requiring Ukraine to accept territorial concessions, reduce its armed forces, and abandon its future NATO ambitions—while Russia would face reintegration into the global economy contingent on compliance. [11][12][13] The package would be monitored by a US-led Peace Council. The proposal, while still under debate, underscores the pressure on Ukraine as resources dwindle and Russian territorial advances continue.
On the security support side, the US approved a $105 million Patriot missile upgrade package for Ukraine, bringing the cumulative American military aid since 2022 to approximately $67 billion. [14][15][16][17] France and Spain have added new defense and reconstruction commitments, with Ukraine signing intentions to buy 100 Rafale jets and ground systems. [18][8] Despite this momentum, peace talks remain tentative, and European debate over long-term funding and frozen Russian asset use continues.
The ongoing crisis—the first direct strikes by Ukraine on Russia’s vital Black Sea hubs, the diplomatic undertones, and substantial Western assistance—will continue to ripple across energy markets, European security, and supply chains. The risk of escalation remains should negotiations falter or military strikes intensify.
Argentina: Milei’s moment of reformist opportunity—optimism collides with fiscal reality
As Argentina marks the second anniversary of Javier Milei’s presidency, the libertarian leader claims to have fulfilled all campaign promises ahead of schedule and celebrates a landslide legislative win affirming popular support for his reformist agenda. Milei is seizing the moment to announce a new wave of "second-generation" reforms: deepening labour, tax, and state restructuring measures intended to ignite growth and reverse decades of stagnation. He is calling on business leaders for active engagement and promising assertive progress, hinting at potential re-election in 2027 given the political winds. [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]
Macroeconomic data points to positive market sentiment, new foreign debt placements at 7.8% interest, and forecasted inflation below 20% for next year. Fiscal projections for 2026 aim for a primary surplus of 1.5-2.2% of GDP—ambitious, given ongoing challenges in reserve accumulation and incomplete negotiations with provincial governments and labour opposition. [26][27] However, the Central Bank’s reserves remain negative ($-12.4 billion net), with structural threats posed by currency controls, inflation, and fragile provincial finances. While the IMF pushes for accelerated reserve buildup, Milei’s team is resisting rapid moves to float the peso, citing risks of currency runs and inflation spikes. [26]
Political stability, buoyed by legislative support, has empowered the administration for bold moves, but internal tension—between technocrats, entrenched party interests, and the wider Peronist opposition—remains. Power reconfigurations (Karina Milei’s role, internal disputes over intelligence and ministry control) add volatility to an already challenging political terrain. [28][29] The social mood is recovering, with 44% of citizens optimistic about next year’s economy, yet lingering skepticism remains as 52% expect things to worsen. [30]
For international investors, Argentina’s opening represents both a window of opportunity and a minefield—policy decisions made in the coming months will determine whether growth, fiscal stability, and business climate improvements hold or unravel.
Conclusions
The global business environment enters late 2025 with prospects for stability and recovery, yet the risks beneath the surface are far from receding. The US-China trade truce exemplifies how short-term predictability rarely erases deeper political and economic discord, with China’s strategic ambitions casting long-term challenges for Western firms. The Ukraine conflict’s military and diplomatic escalation threatens energy security and forces hard choices for European and transatlantic actors. Meanwhile, Argentina’s reform drive offers hope for a new dawn—provided political discipline and fiscal rigor triumph over volatility.
As international businesses weigh their next moves, several questions loom:
- Will the US-China truce endure beyond 2026, or will technology and security rivalries upend new trade stability?
- Can Ukraine withstand the pressures of war long enough to negotiate a sustainable peace, and at what cost to sovereignty and European security?
- Will Milei’s radical reforms turn Argentina into the next Latin American success story—or founder amid structural and social resistance?
In times of transition, resilience comes from vigilance, diversification, and staying ahead of shifting regulatory and political ground. Are your risk strategies and supply chains equipped for the surprises ahead? Mission Grey Advisor AI will be watching.
Further Reading:
Themes around the World:
Inflation and Monetary Policy Challenges
Persistent inflationary pressures in Australia have led the Reserve Bank to revise forecasts upward, delaying interest rate cuts until at least late 2026. Tight labor markets and rising costs constrain economic growth and consumer confidence, complicating monetary policy decisions. This environment affects borrowing costs, investment returns, and overall business competitiveness.
Political Instability and Election Disputes
Cameroon's 2025 presidential election, marked by President Paul Biya's contested victory, has triggered widespread protests, political unrest, and calls for national lockdowns. This instability disrupts economic activities, undermines investor confidence, and complicates regulatory environments critical for cross-border payments and trade facilitation.
Export-Led Economic Growth
Thailand's economy is outperforming expectations in 2025, with export growth revised up to 10%, driven by resilient manufacturing and trade diversification amid US tariffs. Government stimulus supports consumption, while inflation remains subdued. This export resilience strengthens Thailand's position in global supply chains and underpins GDP growth prospects.
Climate Change Risks to Infrastructure and Business
Approximately 60% of Mexican companies face moderate to high exposure to physical risks from climate change, including droughts, floods, and hurricanes. Key sectors like oil and gas, mining, and airlines are vulnerable. Increasing natural disasters strain infrastructure and insurance markets, necessitating enhanced adaptation measures and influencing long-term investment and operational resilience planning.
Australian Sharemarket Volatility
The ASX 200 has experienced significant declines amid global economic uncertainties, including US interest rate speculation, Chinese economic slowdown, and tech sector corrections. These fluctuations affect investor confidence, capital flows, and corporate valuations, influencing Australia's attractiveness for international investment and the stability of its financial markets.
Investment Risk Perceptions in Africa
Despite improvements, Africa remains perceived as a high-risk investment environment due to political instability, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure deficits. South Africa, while relatively stable, faces challenges that limit growth and investment potential. Regional integration and reform momentum are critical to improving the continent's overall investment attractiveness.
Russia's Economic Slowdown and Recession Risks
Russia faces a potential recession by year-end 2025 after consecutive quarters of slowing GDP growth. Key sectors like mining and metallurgy are contracting, while defense industries remain growth drivers. Persistent inflation and labor market strains suggest prolonged economic challenges, necessitating sustained high interest rates and impacting investment strategies.
Robust Crypto Market Growth
PT Indokripto Koin Semesta Tbk achieved a 19-fold revenue increase in 2025, driven by surging crypto asset transactions, especially derivatives which grew 118% in Q3. This reflects growing consumer confidence and innovation in Indonesia's crypto sector, presenting new investment opportunities and signaling a maturing digital asset market with implications for fintech and regulatory frameworks.
Impact of Sanctions on India’s Energy Trade
US sanctions on Russian oil companies compel Indian refiners to cease contracts with Rosneft and Lukoil, forcing a reallocation of crude imports towards Middle Eastern and African sources. While increasing procurement costs, India balances geopolitical pressures with energy security needs, illustrating the complex interplay between sanctions, global energy markets, and emerging economies’ trade strategies.
Poverty Stagnation and Social Challenges
Economic instability, political turmoil, and climate shocks have halted poverty reduction progress, with rising unemployment and informality undermining social stability. Persistent inequality and inadequate basic services constrain domestic demand and workforce productivity, limiting the potential for inclusive economic growth and sustainable development.
Investor Confidence Amid Political Risks
Despite political turmoil and credit downgrades, French companies maintain a positive international image, supported by strong social responsibility and sustainability practices. Government initiatives like 'Choose France' aim to bolster domestic investment and highlight resilience in key sectors such as aerospace and digital services, helping to sustain investor confidence and economic momentum.
Currency Volatility and Rand Performance
The South African rand exhibits volatility influenced by global economic events, commodity prices, and domestic political uncertainty. While recent weakness reflects external pressures and gold price fluctuations, the currency's stabilization is crucial for controlling inflation and maintaining investor confidence. The rand's performance directly affects trade competitiveness, import costs, and overall economic stability, impacting business operations and investment decisions.
Government Market Support and Political Influence
The South Korean government actively promotes stock market growth, targeting a KOSPI index of 5,000. Political parties politicize market movements, and officials have controversially endorsed leveraged investing. While aiming to channel capital from real estate to equities, such interventions risk inflating valuations and encouraging speculative behavior, complicating market stability.
Supply Chain Strategic Importance and Governance Gap
The French economy increasingly recognizes supply chain management as a critical strategic function impacting sovereignty and economic resilience. However, France lacks integrated public governance and expertise in supply chain oversight, unlike peers such as the US and Germany, posing risks of costly disruptions and missed opportunities in global trade and industrial competitiveness.
Expansion of Brazilian Firms’ Internationalization
Brazilian companies are accelerating internationalization, expanding physical presence and partnerships across South America, Asia, and the U.S. This strategy aims to diversify markets, reduce domestic dependency, and navigate geopolitical trade fragmentation. Success depends on sophisticated foreign exchange management, regulatory compliance, and technological integration to sustain competitiveness globally.
Decline in Russian Crude Exports and Market Impact
Russian seaborne crude shipments have sharply declined due to sanctions and buyer caution, causing a surge in oil held at sea. Major importers—India, China, and Turkey—are reducing purchases, disrupting supply chains and pressuring Russia’s export revenues. This dynamic contributes to global oil market uncertainty, with potential short-term supply constraints and price volatility.
Real Estate Market Growth and Infrastructure Development
Indonesia’s real estate market surpassed US$60 billion, driven by rapid urbanization, infrastructure projects like the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail, and government housing policies. Mixed-use developments and logistics facilities are expanding, reflecting evolving urban lifestyles and supply chain needs. This sector growth offers diversified investment opportunities and supports economic modernization.
Regional Business Environment Variability
Business conditions vary significantly across Ukrainian regions, with labor shortages and reduced consumer purchasing power cited as major obstacles. Western and southern regions report better operational capacity than eastern areas affected by conflict. Measures such as military risk insurance and infrastructure restoration are seen as critical to improving the business climate and attracting investment.
Weak Domestic Consumption and Economic Growth
Thailand's economic growth slowed sharply in Q3 2025 due to weak household spending amid high debt and fragile confidence. Private consumption contraction dampens GDP growth prospects despite strong export performance, posing challenges for domestic market-driven sectors and necessitating government stimulus to sustain economic momentum and investor confidence.
Foreign Reserves and Fiscal Discipline
Egypt's net international reserves surpassed $50 billion in October 2025, marking a historic milestone. This strong reserve position supports exchange rate stability, import coverage, and external debt servicing. Concurrently, public debt has been reduced by about 10% of GDP over two years, reflecting effective fiscal consolidation and enhancing macroeconomic stability and sovereign creditworthiness.
Mining Sector's Global Strategic Role
South Africa's rich mineral resources, especially platinum and gold, position it as a critical player in global supply chains for industries like electric vehicles and electronics. Foreign investment in mining is significant but requires careful navigation of political, regulatory, and operational risks to ensure sustainable and profitable engagement.
State Dominance in Energy and Telecom
The preferential status granted to Pemex and CFE, alongside regulatory changes replacing the Federal Telecommunications Institute with new agencies, raises concerns among global firms. These shifts risk distorting competition, affecting trade flows, and undermining investor confidence, potentially jeopardizing cross-border supply chains and investment under the T-MEC framework.
Foreign Exchange Market Growth
Turkey's foreign exchange market, valued at $11.19 billion in 2024, is projected to more than double by 2033 with an 8.23% CAGR, driven by robust tourism, expanding service exports, and burgeoning e-commerce. These sectors generate steady hard currency inflows, strengthening central bank reserves and market liquidity, which are vital for exchange rate stability and international trade facilitation.
Regulatory Challenges for Foreign Investment
New regulatory requirements by the South African Reserve Bank have increased administrative burdens for offshore investors, particularly regarding approvals for international transfers of income streams. This added red tape risks dampening foreign investor sentiment and could undermine recent gains in financial market openness and credibility.
Robust Domestic Economic Resilience
Despite global headwinds, India maintains strong GDP growth forecasts (~6.6-7%), low inflation (~1.5%), and fiscal prudence. Structural reforms like GST 2.0 and targeted fiscal schemes support consumption and investment. This resilience underpins India's attractiveness for investors and buffers against external shocks, sustaining economic momentum.
Global Trade Policy Uncertainty
Trade policy uncertainty has surged globally, with the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index rising 386% year-on-year in Q3 2025. This volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, creates headwinds for trade growth. Despite this, India shows resilience with robust domestic demand and structural reforms, though global fragility remains a risk.
Demographic Challenges and Labor Shortages
The exodus of young Ukrainian men following eased travel restrictions has exacerbated labor shortages in key sectors like construction and manufacturing. This demographic shift strains Ukraine's workforce capacity, prompting increased female employment and vocational retraining efforts, which affect domestic production capabilities and economic recovery prospects.
US-Thailand Rare Earths Pact Risks China Tensions
Thailand's MoU with the US to develop rare earth mineral supply chains aims to diversify global sources but risks straining diplomatic and trade relations with China. Given China's dominance in rare earth mining and processing, this geopolitical balancing act could expose Thailand to trade conflicts, impacting its export-driven economy and foreign investment climate.
Financial Sector Foreign Investment Surge
Foreign investments in Indian banking and financial services have surged, with deals exceeding $15 billion in 2025. This inflow strengthens capital bases, promotes modernization, and enhances global integration of Indian financial institutions, fostering economic growth and financial inclusion, while signaling international confidence in India's economic trajectory.
Financial Sector Risks Amid Rapid Credit Growth
Vietnam's banking sector faces elevated risks due to rapid lending growth and plans to remove credit quotas. Fitch Ratings warns of increased leverage and potential financial instability. The government's push for loan expansion, especially to support large conglomerates and infrastructure projects, necessitates careful supervision to mitigate concentration risks and preserve banking sector resilience.
Construction Sector Contraction and Recovery
Mexico's construction industry is contracting in 2025 due to rising input costs, tariff impacts, and reduced remittances. However, government investments in energy and transport infrastructure, including major railway and highway projects, are expected to drive a recovery with a projected 2.6% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2029. This sector's performance is pivotal for economic stimulus and supply chain logistics.
Currency Depreciation and Capital Outflows
The trade deal and increased overseas investments have intensified won depreciation pressures due to capital flight. Persistent outflows to fund US investments and growing foreign asset holdings by Korean institutions and retail investors weaken the won, complicate liquidity management, and pose risks to export competitiveness and financial stability.
U.S.-Brazil Trade Negotiations and Tariff Dynamics
Following high-level talks between Presidents Lula and Trump, Brazil and the U.S. initiated tariff negotiations to prevent escalations affecting key Brazilian exports such as beef and steel. These discussions are critical for maintaining stable trade relations, supply chain reliability, and cost structures for businesses operating across North America and Brazil.
Financial Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment
Indian financial markets exhibit volatility influenced by global uncertainties, persistent foreign institutional investor outflows, and mixed corporate earnings. Despite domestic institutional buying and supportive macroeconomic indicators, cautious investor sentiment prevails. Key sectors like Metal, IT, and FMCG face pressure, while Financials and Banking provide partial support. Market direction remains sensitive to inflation data, trade negotiations, and geopolitical developments.
Political Influence on Market Narratives
The Kospi index has become a political battleground, with ruling parties framing market movements to support policy agendas, including ambitious targets like 'Kospi 5000.' This politicization risks undermining market transparency and investor confidence, complicating objective assessment of economic fundamentals and investment risks.
Foreign Direct Investment and Current Account Deficit
Brazil posted a wider-than-expected current account deficit of $9.77 billion in September 2025, driven by a shrinking trade surplus and rising imports. Despite strong foreign direct investment inflows, the deficit reflects external vulnerabilities that may impact currency stability and capital flows.