Carbon market rollout and emissions caps

Vietnam is building a domestic carbon market: Decree 29/2026 sets the trading platform’s framework, with pilots through 2028 and full operation from 2029. Sector caps for 2025–26 (243–268 MtCO2e) start shaping compliance and green investment priorities.

Carbon policy and possible CBAM

Safeguard Mechanism baselines and the newly released carbon-leakage review open pathways to stronger protection for trade-exposed sectors, including a CBAM-like option. Firms should anticipate higher carbon-cost pass-through, reporting needs and border competitiveness effects for metals and cement.

Energy grid attacks and rationing

Sustained Russian strikes on 750kV/330kV substations and plants are “islanding” the grid, driving nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce output. Power deficits disrupt factories, ports, and rail operations, raise operating costs, and delay investment timelines.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

China engagement and investment scrutiny

Ottawa’s diversification push toward China—alongside signals of openness to Chinese SOE energy stakes—raises national-security review, reputational and sanctions-compliance risk. Businesses should expect tighter due diligence and potential policy reversals amid allied pressure.

Energy security and LNG contracting

Shrinking domestic gas output and delayed petroleum-law amendments increase reliance on LNG; gas supplies roughly 60% of power generation. PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking long-term LNG deals (15-year contracts, 0.8–1.0 mtpa). Electricity-price volatility and industrial costs remain key.

Net-zero investment and grid bottlenecks

The UK is accelerating clean-power buildout, citing £300bn+ low‑carbon investment since 2010 and targets of 43–50GW offshore wind by 2030. Opportunities grow across supply chains, but grid connection delays and network upgrades remain material execution risks.

Startup export momentum in deeptech

Finnish startups’ export revenues reportedly exceeded €10bn, reinforcing Finland as a scalable base for XR/simulation software and B2B platforms. For investors, deal flow is improving, though valuations, talent competition, and reliance on EU funding cycles influence entry timing and portfolio strategy.

Cybersecurity and data regulation tightening

Rising cyber and foreign-interference concerns are driving stricter critical-infrastructure security expectations and data-governance requirements. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance costs, vendor-risk audits, and incident-reporting duties, influencing cloud sourcing, cross-border data flows, and M&A diligence.

Domestic unrest and security crackdown

Large-scale protests and lethal repression are elevating operational and reputational risk for foreign-linked firms. Risks include curfews, disrupted labor availability, arbitrary enforcement, asset seizures, and heightened human-rights due diligence expectations from investors, banks, and regulators.

Port infrastructure under sustained strikes

A concentrated wave of Russian attacks on ports and ships—Dec 2–Jan 12 made up ~10% of all such strikes since 2022—targets Ukraine’s export backbone. Damage and interruptions raise demurrage and storage costs, deter carriers, and complicate export contracting for agriculture and metals.

Section 232 national-security investigations

Section 232 remains a broad, fast-moving trade instrument spanning sectors like pharmaceuticals/ingredients, semiconductors and autos/parts. Outcomes can create sudden tariffs, quotas or TRQs (as seen in U.S.–India auto-parts quota talks), complicating procurement and pricing strategies.

Oil export concentration to China

Iran’s crude exports remain resilient but highly concentrated: about 46.9 million barrels in January 2026 (~1.51 mb/d), with China absorbing most volumes via relabeling and ship‑to‑ship transfers (often through Malaysia). Any enforcement shift could rapidly reprice Asian feedstocks and freight.

Tax and cost-base reset

Budget-linked measures raise employer National Insurance to 15% (from April 2025) and change pension salary-sacrifice NI from 2029/30, expected to raise £4.8bn initially. Combined with business-rates changes, this tightens margins and alters location, hiring, and pricing strategies.

Infra Amazon e conflito socioambiental

Bloqueios indígenas afetaram acesso a terminal da Cargill no Tapajós e protestam contra dragagem e privatização de hidrovias, citando riscos de licenciamento e mercúrio. Tensão pode atrasar projetos do Arco Norte, pressionando fretes, seguros, prazos de exportação de grãos.

High-risk Black Sea shipping

Merchant shipping faces drone attacks, sea mines, GNSS jamming/spoofing, and sudden port stoppages under ISPS Level 3. Operational disruption and claims exposure rise for hull, cargo, delay, and crew welfare, complicating charterparty clauses, safe-port warranties, and routing decisions.

Corredores logísticos e licenciamento

Concessões e projetos de hidrovias e portos ganham tração, mas enfrentam licenciamento ambiental e contestação social. A Hidrovia do Rio Paraguai mira leilão até 2026 e pode elevar cargas de 8,8 para 30 Mt, reduzindo fretes do agro.

China trade ties and coercion

China remains Australia’s dominant trading partner, but flashpoints—such as Beijing’s warnings over the Chinese-held Darwin Port lease and prior export controls on inputs like gallium—keep coercion risk elevated, complicating contract certainty, market access, and contingency planning for exporters and import-dependent firms.

Higher-for-longer rates uncertainty

With inflation easing but still above target, markets and Fed officials signal patience; rate paths remain sensitive to tariff pass-through and data disruptions. Borrowing costs and USD moves affect investment hurdle rates, M&A financing, and the competitiveness of US-based production and exports.

China-tech decoupling feedback loop

U.S. controls and tariffs are accelerating reciprocal Chinese policies to reduce reliance on U.S. chips and financial exposure. This dynamic increases regulatory fragmentation, raises substitution risk for U.S. technology vendors, and forces global firms to design products, data flows, and financing for bifurcated regimes.

Border trade decentralization measures

Tehran is delegating exceptional powers to border provinces to secure essential imports via simplified customs and barter-style mechanisms. This may improve resilience for basic goods but increases regulatory fragmentation, corruption exposure, and unpredictability for cross-border traders and distributors.

Palm waste export restrictions

President Prabowo announced a ban on exporting used cooking oil and palm waste to prioritize domestic aviation fuel and biofuel ambitions. The move may tighten regional feedstock availability, disrupt traders’ supply contracts, and increase regulatory risk in Indonesia’s palm-based derivative exports.

Gaza spillovers and border constraints

Rafah crossing reopening remains tightly controlled, with limited throughput and heightened security frictions. Ongoing regional instability elevates political and security risk, disrupts overland logistics to Levant markets, and can trigger compliance and duty-of-care requirements for firms.

Tariff rationalisation amid protectionism

Recent tariff schedules cut duties on many inputs, improving manufacturing cost structures, while maintaining high protection on finished goods in select sectors. This mix changes sourcing decisions, compliance requirements, and effective protection rates, influencing export orientation versus domestic-market rent-seeking.

Critical minerals alliance reshaping

Washington is building a “preferential” critical-minerals trade zone with price floors and stockpiling, pressuring partners to align and reduce China exposure. Canada’s positioning will affect mining, refining, battery investment and eligibility for U.S.-linked supply chains.

Riesgos de seguridad y continuidad

La violencia criminal y extorsión siguen siendo un riesgo estructural para operaciones, transporte y personal, especialmente en corredores industriales y logísticos. Incrementa costos de seguros, seguridad privada y cumplimiento, y puede provocar interrupciones de proveedores y rutas, afectando puntualidad exportadora.

Defense build-up reshapes industry

La hausse des crédits militaires (+6,5 à +6,7 Md€, budget armées ~57,2 Md€) accélère commandes (sous-marins, blindés, missiles) et renforce exigences de conformité, sécurité et souveraineté. Opportunités pour fournisseurs, mais arbitrages budgétaires pèsent sur autres programmes d’investissement.

Defense spending surge and procurement

Defense outlays rise sharply (2026 budget signals +€6.5bn; ~57.2bn total), with broader rearmament discussions. This expands opportunities in aerospace, cyber, and dual-use tech, while tightening export controls, security clearances, and supply-chain requirements.

Crypto-based payments and enforcement

Sanctions and FX scarcity are accelerating use of crypto and stablecoins for trade settlement and wealth preservation, drawing increased OFAC attention and first-time sanctions on exchanges tied to Iran. This raises AML/KYC burdens and counterparty screening complexity for fintech and traders.

Defense posture and maritime asset protection

Israel is prioritizing protection of Eilat approaches and offshore gas infrastructure, reflected in expanded naval readiness. Persistent maritime threats raise operational continuity and security requirements for ports, energy off-take, subsea cables and critical infrastructure suppliers operating nearby.

Trade competitiveness and tariff headwinds

Businesses warn of weak exports and tariff pressures, including potential U.S. measures affecting regional trade. Firms should expect tougher price competition versus Vietnam and Malaysia and prioritize rules-of-origin compliance, diversification of end-markets, and scenario planning for new trade barriers.

Wage growth versus inflation

Spring ‘shunto’ negotiations aim to sustain at least 5% wage hikes for a third year, after two years above 5%, to restore falling real wages. Outcomes will influence domestic demand, retail pricing, service-sector margins, and labor cost assumptions for multinationals operating in Japan.

EU ties deepen, standards rise

EU–Vietnam relations upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, accelerating cooperation on trade, infrastructure, “trusted” 5G, critical minerals and semiconductors. For exporters and investors, EVFTA opportunities expand but EU compliance demands tighten (ESG, origin, labour, CBAM reporting).

China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

Critical minerals industrial policy shift

Canberra is accelerating strategic-minerals policy via a A$1.2bn reserve, production tax incentives and project finance, amid allied price-floor talks. Heightened FIRB scrutiny of Chinese stakes and governance disputes increase compliance risk but expand opportunities for allied offtakes and processing investment.

Rising carbon price on heating

Germany’s national CO₂ price increased from €55 to up to €65 per tonne in 2026, lifting costs for gas and oil heating. The trajectory supports Wärmewende investments, while impacting fuel import flows, hedging strategies, and competitiveness of fossil-based heating equipment supply chains.