Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. rules restricting outbound investments into sensitive sectors (semiconductors, AI, quantum and related capabilities) are tightening board-level approvals and reporting. Multinationals must redesign China exposure, restructure JV/VC activity, and document controls across affiliates and funds.

Eastern Mediterranean gas hub strategy

A planned $2bn Cyprus–Egypt subsea pipeline (170 km, ~800 mmcfd, target 2030) would feed Egypt’s grid and LNG export terminals (Idku, Damietta). This strengthens energy security and industrial inputs, while creating opportunities in EPC, services, and offtake.

Critical-minerals downstreaming escalation

Jakarta is considering extending raw export bans beyond nickel and bauxite to minerals like tin, reinforcing ‘hilirisasi’ policy. While processed exports surged (nickel exports ~US$34bn in 2024 vs US$3.3bn in 2017), investors face policy shifts, permitting risk, and local-processing requirements.

Digital regulation and platform compliance risk

Proposed online-platform and network rules, plus high-profile cases involving major platforms, are viewed in Washington as discriminatory. Potential policy shifts could alter data governance, content delivery costs, and competition enforcement, influencing market entry strategy and compliance budgets for multinationals.

Energy Import Dependence and Transition

Energy prices remain a key macro risk; IMF flags shocks like higher energy costs as inflation-extending. At the same time, expanding renewables and nuclear projects reshape industrial power pricing and grid investment. Energy-intensive manufacturers should plan for tariff volatility and decarbonization requirements.

Migration tightening, labour shortages

Visa rule tightening is depressing skilled-worker and student inflows; analysts warn net migration could turn negative for the first time since 1993. Sectors like construction, care and health face hiring frictions, lifting wage pressure and constraining delivery timelines for UK operations.

Consolidation budgétaire et fiscalité

Le budget 2026, adopté via 49.3, comporte des mesures fiscales contestées et sécurisées devant le Conseil constitutionnel. Effets: incertitude sur fiscalité du capital et transmissions, arbitrages d’investissement, pression sur dépenses publiques et commandes.

Energy security via LNG contracting

With gas supplying about 60% of power generation and domestic output declining, PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking in long-term LNG contracts (15-year deals, 0.8–1.0 mtpa tranches). Greater price stability supports manufacturing planning but increases exposure to contract and FX risks.

Sanctions escalation and extraterritorial risk

EU’s proposed 20th package shifts from price caps toward a full maritime-services ban on Russian crude, adds ports and banks in third countries, and expands tech export bans. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure, compliance costs, and deal-break risks for global firms.

Financial volatility from foreign flows

Taiwan’s central bank flags heightened FX and equity volatility from rapid foreign capital inflows/outflows and ETF growth. This raises hedging costs and balance-sheet risk for multinationals, especially those with USD revenues and NTD cost bases or large local financing exposure.

Supply-chain bloc formation pressures

US-led efforts to build critical-minerals “preferential zones” with reference prices and tariffs signal broader de-risking blocs. Companies may face bifurcated supply chains, dual standards, and requalification of suppliers as trade rules diverge between China-centric and allied networks.

Semiconductor Export Boom, Policy Risk

Chip exports are surging on AI demand, but firms face execution risk under Korea’s “Special Chips Act,” plus exposure to U.S.-China tech controls and customer concentration. This affects capex timing, subsidy access, and supply assurances for downstream electronics and automotive producers.

Taiwan Strait gray‑zone disruption

Recent PLA activity—100+ aircraft sorties, missile firings into Taiwan’s contiguous zone, and coast‑guard involvement—supports a ‘quarantine’ coercion risk that raises insurance costs and delays shipping without open war. Supply chains should model rerouting, lead‑time buffers, and energy/port shocks.

Agua y clima: riesgo transfronterizo

México se comprometió a entregar al menos 350,000 acre‑pies anuales a EE. UU. bajo el Tratado de 1944 y a pagar adeudos previos, tras amenazas arancelarias. Sequías y asignaciones industriales pueden generar paros, conflictos sociales y exposición comercial en agroindustria.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Supply-chain reshoring for semiconductors

Policy priorities emphasize strengthening strategic supply chains, with rising power demand from semiconductor manufacturing and data centers. Expect continued incentives for domestic/ally-based chip capacity, stricter resilience requirements for tier suppliers, and competition for skilled labor, land, grid connections, and water.

Data protection compliance tightening

Draft DPDP rules and proposed faster compliance timelines raise near-term operational and legal burdens, especially for multinationals and potential “Significant Data Fiduciaries.” Unclear thresholds and cross-border transfer mechanisms increase compliance risk, contract renegotiations, and potential localization-style costs.

Power tariffs and circular debt

Energy-sector reform remains central to IMF conditionality. Tariff redesign and circular-debt containment can shift cost burdens between households and industry, affecting margins, plant uptime and pricing. Investors face policy risk around subsidies, DISCO recoveries, and contract enforcement in generation and distribution.

Baht volatility and FX scrutiny

Election risk premia, USD strength, and gold-linked flows are driving short-term baht swings. The central bank is signalling greater operational FX management and scrutiny of non-fundamental inflows. Importers, exporters, and treasury teams should expect hedging costs and tighter FX documentation.

Red Sea shipping risk remains

Houthi attacks on Israel-linked vessels are suspended but explicitly conditional on Gaza dynamics, leaving a high-risk maritime environment. Any renewed escalation could re-trigger strikes, raising insurance premia, forcing Cape reroutes, and disrupting Israel-bound supply chains and schedules.

Port and inland logistics bottlenecks

Operational disruptions at key gateways and inland corridors—compounded by tighter documentation and customs processes—can trigger dwell time, demurrage and missed shipping windows. Exporters and importers should build buffer inventory, contract multiple forwarders, and pre-clear documentation to protect service levels.

Property slump and demand uncertainty

Housing remains a key drag on confidence and consumption despite targeted easing. January showed slower month-on-month declines, yet year-on-year weakness persists across most cities. Multinationals should expect uneven regional demand, supplier stress, and heightened counterparty and payment risks.

Climate shocks and supply disruptions

Monsoon floods and climate volatility continue to disrupt agriculture, transport and industrial operations; 2025 flooding displaced millions and raised ongoing exposure. Climate-resilience financing under RSF also shapes infrastructure standards, insurance costs, and due-diligence requirements for long-lived assets.

Cybersecurity and data regulation tightening

Rising cyber and foreign-interference concerns are driving stricter critical-infrastructure security expectations and data-governance requirements. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance costs, vendor-risk audits, and incident-reporting duties, influencing cloud sourcing, cross-border data flows, and M&A diligence.

Taiwan Strait grey-zone supply shocks

Intensifying PLA and coast-guard activity around Taiwan supports a “quarantine” scenario that could disrupt commercial shipping without open war, raising insurance premiums, rerouting costs, and delivery delays. High exposure sectors include electronics, LNG-dependent manufacturing, and time-sensitive components.

Inversión extranjera: más reinversión

Aunque la IED alcanzó ~US$41,000 millones hasta 3T2025 (+15% interanual), solo ~US$6,500 millones fueron proyectos nuevos. La cautela privada se asocia a incertidumbre regulatoria y comercial, afectando pipelines de nearshoring, alianzas y financiamiento de nuevas plantas.

Private capital entry via PPPs

Policy momentum is opening network industries to private participation—electricity trading, wheeling, and rail/port concessions—supporting investment pipelines (e.g., 4.7GW private power projects closed 2023–2025). Execution quality will determine returns, dispute risk, and competitive neutrality.

EU trade friction on palm/nickel

Trade disputes and regulatory barriers with Europe—spanning palm sustainability rules and nickel downstreaming—remain a structural risk for exporters. Firms should anticipate tighter traceability demands, litigation/WTO uncertainty, and potential market-access shifts toward alternative destinations and FTAs.

Business investment drag and policy uncertainty

UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025 and business investment fell nearly 3%, the biggest drop since early 2021, amid budget uncertainty. Multinationals should expect cautious capex, softer demand, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory or political shocks.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Secondary tariffs and sanctions escalation

New measures broaden U.S. economic coercion, including tariffs on countries trading with Iran and expanded sanctions on Iranian oil networks. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, shipping and insurance frictions, potential retaliation, and heightened due diligence on counterparties and trade finance.

Local government debt tightening

Provincial reports signal stricter controls on “hidden” local debt, platform exits, and goals to clear stock by 2026, reinforcing Beijing’s ‘no new implicit debt’ stance. Expect slower infrastructure pipelines, tougher public procurement terms, and heightened scrutiny of SOE financing structures.

Tradeoffs EUA–China e tarifas

Com tarifas dos EUA (50%) desde agosto, a fatia das exportações industriais aos EUA caiu para 13,5% e a China subiu para 12,6%; vendas ao mercado americano recuaram ~19,5%. Empresas aceleram diversificação, mas enfrentam barreiras de acesso e concorrência chinesa em manufaturados.

Logistics upgrades and multimodal corridors

Dedicated Freight Corridors, Gati Shakti cargo terminals, port connectivity and new national waterways aim to reduce transit times and logistics costs. Firms can redesign distribution networks, but should factor land acquisition delays, last-mile bottlenecks, and regulatory fragmentation.

Dollar hedging costs surge

Foreign investors are increasing USD hedge ratios, amplifying dollar swings even without mass Treasury selling. Higher FX-hedging costs reshape portfolio allocation, pricing of long-term supply contracts, and can reduce inward investment appetite while raising working-capital volatility for importers.

Air defence shortages constrain continuity

Interceptor shortages—especially PAC-3 for Patriot—reduce protection of cities, ports and factories, increasing business interruption and asset-damage risk. Ukraine reports near-empty launchers at times; partners are scrambling to deliver missiles from stockpiles. Insurance, project timelines and onsite staffing remain volatile.