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Mission Grey Daily Brief - June 28, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The global situation remains complex, with the war in Ukraine continuing to rage and causing significant disruptions. The conflict has led to increased cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, raising concerns about global security. Meanwhile, the Communist Party in China faces questions about its ability to address the country's economic challenges. In the UK, a betting scandal involving members of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's security detail has emerged, while in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has ordered the mass firing of 300 employees from the Culture Ministry. Lastly, international experts warn of a growing famine crisis in Sudan, with 755,000 people at risk in the coming months.

Ukraine-Russia War

The war in Ukraine continues to rage, with Russia targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing chronic power cuts and aiming to make cities unlivable. This systematic destruction is considered a war crime under international law, and it has already wiped out 50% of Ukraine's electricity-generating capacity. The conflict has also resulted in the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 11 million people forced to flee their homes. The war has now been ongoing for almost two and a half years, and Ukraine is facing significant challenges in terms of mobilization and government fatigue.

Growing Cooperation Between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran

The US has flagged a growing threat to global security as Russia deepens its cooperation with China, North Korea, and Iran. This quasi-alliance now covers weapons sales, energy, and finance, with Russia seeking assistance for its war in Ukraine. The four countries are also increasing their space collaboration, with Russia launching an Iranian satellite and plans for a Russo-Chinese lunar nuclear power plant. Additionally, Russia and North Korea have revived a mutual defense agreement, with both nations pledging military assistance to each other in the event of war. This growing partnership adds complexity to the already contested space domain and has raised concerns among US officials.

China's Communist Party Faces Challenges

With China's economy facing vulnerabilities, investors, analysts, and business leaders are questioning whether the Communist Party is willing and able to design and execute an effective response. The upcoming meeting of the party's Central Committee on July 15 will be an opportunity for China's leaders to address these concerns. However, it seems more likely that the meeting will highlight the gap between the party's rhetoric and its actions.

UK Betting Scandal

In the UK, a betting scandal has emerged, involving members of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's security detail. Up to 15 Conservative Party members are being investigated by the Gambling Commission for allegedly using insider information to place bets on the surprise election date announced by Sunak. This scandal has led to the withdrawal of support for two MPs and the suspension of several individuals, including a police officer assigned as a bodyguard to the Prime Minister.

El Salvador's Culture Ministry Firings

In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has ordered the mass firing of 300 employees from the Culture Ministry, stating that they were <co: 13,33,5


Further Reading:

'Ukrainians have reached the stage where, exhausted by a sprint, they realize they actually have to run a marathon' - Le Monde

A clear-eyed account of Ukraine under siege - The Economist

A pivotal moment for China's Communist Party - The Economist

A space quad: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran - Asia Times

Breaking Down the U.K. Election Betting Scandal - TIME

El Salvador Plans Mass Firing of Culture Ministry Employees - U.S. News & World Report

Experts Warn That 755,000 People at Risk of Famine in the Coming Months in War-Torn Sudan - U.S. News & World Report

Experts warn that 755000 people at risk of famine in the coming months in war-torn Sudan - KSTP

Experts warns that 755,000 people at risk of famine in the coming months in war-torn Sudan - Yahoo! Voices

Themes around the World:

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WTO track supports multilateral defense

Brazil is simultaneously contesting the US measures at the WTO, arguing the tariffs are unilateral, discriminatory and inconsistent with commitments. The dual strategy of litigation plus negotiation may lengthen uncertainty, but gives companies clearer institutional channels to monitor.

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Selective Trade Opening Under Discussion

Washington and Beijing are discussing lower tariffs on roughly $30 billion of non-sensitive goods, while Beijing seeks broader exemptions. If implemented, the move could modestly ease costs for consumer and industrial importers, but it remains constrained by unresolved strategic disputes.

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Critical Minerals Access Leverage

In negotiations with Canada, Washington is seeking greater access to critical minerals alongside broader trade concessions, aiming to reduce dependence on China-linked supply. This strengthens resource-security priorities in US policy and could reshape investment flows in mining, processing, and downstream manufacturing.

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Critical minerals value-chain drive

South Africa is pushing SADC to stop exporting raw critical minerals and expand beneficiation, processing and manufacturing. The agenda targets stronger regional value chains in battery and industrial materials, but execution depends heavily on reliable power, transport infrastructure and coordinated investment.

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Commodity Exchange Reshapes Pricing

President Prabowo plans to launch a strategic mineral and commodity exchange by 1 January 2027 under OJK oversight, covering nickel, palm oil, tin, coal, gold, coffee, and rubber. Domestic reference pricing could alter trading practices, hedging, contract structures, and price discovery.

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Sovereign rating and IMF stabilization

Moody’s upgraded Pakistan to B3 from Caa1, citing governance gains, IMF-backed reforms, lower financing costs and reserves rising to about $17 billion. Improved market access supports trade finance and investor sentiment, though external financing needs and energy-price shocks remain material risks.

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Energy Security and LNG Fragility

Power shortages, spot LNG purchases and disrupted Qatar supply highlight Pakistan’s dependence on volatile energy imports. Government use of diesel, coal and subsidies to manage loadshedding signals higher operating costs and supply risk for industry and logistics.

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Central bank keeps policy tight

Citi expects the Central Bank of Turkey to keep rates unchanged in September, with limited room for cuts and a year-end policy rate near 35%. That implies prolonged tight liquidity, higher local funding costs and continued sensitivity of the lira and domestic credit conditions.

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Maritime Security Pact Expands Cooperation

Japan and India signed a maritime security arrangement covering maritime domain awareness, logistics, repair facilities and joint exercises. The pact also opens prospects for shipbuilding co-development and defense technology transfer, linking security cooperation with industrial opportunity across Indo-Pacific supply chains.

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Transport and logistics collaboration expansion

Investment roundtables in Paris focused on transport, logistics, tourism, manufacturing and digital infrastructure, backed by large existing French participation in Saudi metro, energy and tourism projects. This broadens international contracting pipelines for French firms and associated supply-chain, financing and advisory providers.

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USMCA Renegotiation Under Pressure

Current tariff confrontation is spilling into the review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with talks now clouded by distrust. Businesses dependent on North American rules of origin, tariff exemptions and production integration face growing uncertainty over future market-access conditions.

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Semiconductor supply-chain opportunity emerges

Mexican officials are pursuing roles in semiconductor packaging, testing, and finishing as production shifts from Taiwan toward Phoenix. If executed well, this could attract billions of dollars, deepen advanced-manufacturing integration, and reshape regional supplier strategies in northern Mexico.

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Government support cushions affected sectors

Ottawa signaled additional aid for workers and businesses, building on nearly $25 billion of support over 18 months. Existing measures include a $1 billion BDC loan program and $100 million for domestic steel transport, partially mitigating liquidity and logistics pressures.

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Blacklisted Vessels Reshape Shipping

Iran’s blacklist of 45 vessels has already prompted at least three Indian refiners and a major energy company to avoid affected ships. The resulting reduction in willing carriers could lift freight rates, tighten tanker availability, and complicate procurement for Israel-facing importers and exporters.

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EU regulation and trade frictions

Several candidates attacked EU norms, France’s contribution to the EU budget, and Brussels’ trade stance. For international firms, this raises risk of regulatory volatility, possible tariff or quota disputes, and a less predictable operating environment tied to France’s evolving EU strategy.

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E-Visa Becomes More Important

Authorities cite the availability of Thailand’s e-Visa system as part of the policy overhaul. Travelers who need longer stays or non-tourism activity will increasingly rely on formal visa channels, raising planning requirements for multinational teams and project deployment.

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Nearshoring Value-Add Requirements

Officials increasingly distinguish legitimate production in Mexico from minimal assembly or relabeling, implying higher expectations for local value added. Firms using Mexico as an export platform may face stricter proof-of-origin, investment, and supply-chain localization demands.

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Maritime Security and Trade Routes

Saudi Arabia and France repeatedly stressed freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Bab al-Mandab after attacks on ships and Saudi infrastructure. For international business, this raises shipping, insurance, and rerouting costs, while elevating supply chain volatility and delivery risk.

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US trade-security linkage intensifies

Washington is tying tariffs, investment pledges and even military exercises together, increasing strategic uncertainty for exporters and investors. Seoul’s delayed follow-through on a $350 billion US investment commitment raises risks of renewed tariff pressure and more politicised bilateral negotiations.

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Fiscal Expansion Faces Market Resistance

Prime Minister Takaichi’s growth strategy, including larger public and private investment, tax cuts, and more active fiscal policy, is meeting investor skepticism. Concerns over debt sustainability and higher interest costs are threatening the credibility and timing of new spending programs.

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Ports and rail privatization momentum

Coverage on Transnet, port concessions and the broader shift toward private involvement in infrastructure points to a major logistics transition. Improved rail and port performance would aid exporters, but the process may disrupt operators, labour relations and contracting models across key supply chains.

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Escalating US secondary sanctions

Washington’s “Operation Economic Outcast” expands sanctions across shipping, aviation, technology, gold and digital assets, while threatening third-country firms with loss of dollar access. This sharply raises compliance, financing and counterparty risks for any Iran-linked trade, investment or logistics activity.

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Regional trade partners face exposure

Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, India, Armenia and Azerbaijan maintain meaningful trade, energy or border-commerce ties with Iran, but recent reporting shows rising disruption and secondary-sanctions risk. Cross-border traders now face higher transport costs, payment constraints and reduced reliability of regional supply routes.

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Negotiated US-Brazil reset possible

After an 80-minute Lula-Trump call, both sides agreed to resume technical talks, with Brazil’s development ministry preparing meetings with the USTR. This reopens a pathway toward product exemptions or narrower tariff coverage, offering some near-term relief for exporters and investors.

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FDI surge into export sectors

Foreign investment momentum remains strong, especially in electronics, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing. Registered FDI rose 61% to about $34.6 billion in H1 2026, while realized FDI reached roughly $13 billion, supporting capacity expansion, supplier localization, and long-term market confidence.

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Energy costs and climate trade-offs

Rising regulated energy prices and global oil shocks are pushing the government to consider bill support and possible adjustments to energy levies. At the same time, debate continues over North Sea production, net-zero commitments, and the cost implications for industrial users.

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Food Security And Supply Cooperation

Thailand and Singapore are highlighting food-security cooperation, including a rice supply mechanism that allows Thailand to export specified volumes on request. For importers and agribusinesses, the focus on stable bilateral food channels underscores Thailand’s role in regional agricultural supply resilience.

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Regulatory change for data firms

Reform UK’s pledge to scrap the UK GDPR highlights a live policy debate over privacy regulation, small-business compliance, and digital competitiveness. Any major divergence could threaten the UK’s EU data adequacy status, disrupting cross-border data flows and legal certainty.

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Sanctions pressure on Turkey-Iran ties

U.S. secondary sanctions are widening to Turkish firms, banks and exchange houses linked to Iran. The coverage of petrochemicals, shipping and cash-smuggling networks raises compliance costs, constrains payments and could force Turkish companies to reassess commercial exposure.

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Sanctions Enforcement Faces Vetoes

EU renewals of sanctions on more than 3,000 Russians have been delayed, while a new package targeting about 1,600 people and entities is being prepared. Unanimity disputes, especially involving Slovakia and Belgium, raise execution risk for sanctions-dependent business operations.

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Summit-driven policy volatility

A crowded diplomatic calendar—the September 24 Xi-Trump summit, ongoing G20 talks, and the November 10 US-China truce expiry—is concentrating policy event risk. Firms exposed to US trade policy face sudden shifts in tariffs, enforcement, and licensing conditions over coming weeks.

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Private-sector led transformation

The government’s new economic transformation program aims to shift growth toward private-sector leadership, higher exports, better customs efficiency and SME support, signaling potential medium-term improvements in market access, trade facilitation and investment conditions.

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Ceyhan corridor gains strategic weight

Turkey and Iraq are expanding oil flows through Ceyhan, with a one-year deal targeting at least 750,000 barrels per day and potential for 1 million. The corridor strengthens Turkey’s transit role and offers traders an alternative to Hormuz-related disruption.

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Enforcement Gaps Raise Compliance Risk

Australia’s inquiry found no prosecutions for Russia sanctions breaches since 2022 and highlighted weak enforcement, while Switzerland and others are tightening account closures, visa policy, and asset controls. Businesses should expect uneven enforcement, escalating due diligence demands, and reputational exposure.

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Migration Debate Reshapes Education

Australia’s student-visa and migration debate is increasingly affecting international education, with officials tightening scrutiny on non-genuine enrolments while still maintaining flexible visa pathways. This creates uncertainty for universities, student recruitment, and businesses relying on overseas talent pipelines.

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Defense Buildup Reshapes Procurement

Japan is expanding defense spending, intelligence structures and missile capabilities, with spending targeted at 2% of GDP by 2027. This is increasing demand for advanced systems, munitions, maintenance and dual-use industrial capacity, creating opportunities and constraints for suppliers.