Tech sector volatility and rebalancing

High-tech remains ~57% of exports and 17% of GDP, but job seekers reached 16,300 (double 2022) and talent outflows persist. Funding rebounded to ~$15.6bn in 2025, increasingly defense-tech oriented, reshaping partners’ go-to-market and compliance needs.

Sanctions-linked energy procurement risk

U.S. tariff relief is tied to India curbing Russian crude purchases, with monitoring and possible tariff snapback. Refiners face contractual lock-ins and limited alternatives (e.g., Nayara). Energy-intensive sectors should plan for price volatility and sanctions compliance.

BOI Fast Pass investment surge

Government is accelerating roughly THB480bn of BOI-approved projects via “Fast Pass,” targeting over THB1.1tn total investment in 2026. This boosts near-term capex, industrial demand, and supplier opportunities, but increases competition for land, utilities, and skilled labor.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para IVA dual (CBS/IBS) cria riscos de implementação, cumulatividade temporária e disputas de créditos, especialmente em cadeias longas e operações interestaduais. Multinacionais devem reavaliar preços, contratos, sistemas fiscais e estruturas de importação/distribuição para evitar custos e autuações.

Fiscal stimulus vs debt sustainability

A proposed two-year suspension of the 8% food tax creates an estimated ~5 trillion yen annual revenue gap and intensifies scrutiny of financing options, including FX-reserve surpluses. Uncertainty can lift bond yields, tighten credit and reshape consumer demand outlooks.

AML/CTF bar for crypto access

FCA registration milestones (e.g., Blockchain.com) show continued selectivity under UK Money Laundering Regulations. Firms need robust CDD, transaction monitoring, record-keeping and senior-manager accountability, influencing partner bank access and cross-border onboarding scalability.

US–India tariff reset framework

A new interim framework cuts US reciprocal tariffs on Indian-origin goods to 18% (from peaks near 50%) while India lowers barriers on US industrial and selected farm goods. Expect near-term export upside, but compliance, sector carve-outs and implementation timelines remain uncertain.

توسع الموانئ والممرات اللوجستية

خطة لوجستية وطنية تربط موانئ المتوسط والبحر الأحمر بموانئ جافة ومناطق صناعية عبر سبعة ممرات متعددة الوسائط، مع توسعات أرصفة عميقة بنحو 70 كم. التشغيل التجريبي لمحطة «تحيا مصر 1» بدمياط بطاقة 3.5 مليون TEU يعزز قدرات المناولة وجذب الخطوط.

Energy export diversification projects

Canada is accelerating west-coast export optionality, including proposals for an Alberta-to-Pacific crude line and expansion of export routes. This could reshape long-term offtake, shipping, Indigenous partnership requirements, and permitting timelines for investors.

Energy security and LNG dependence

Taiwan’s energy system remains highly import-dependent, making LNG procurement and maritime access strategically critical. Recent U.S. trade commitments include roughly US$44.4B in LNG/crude purchases (2025–2029), affecting utilities, industrial power costs, and resilience planning for manufacturers and data centers.

New fees, taxes, and compliance load

Egypt continues updating VAT and tax administration and adding port/terminal charges (e.g., inspection fees). Combined with evolving customs requirements such as mandatory Advance Cargo Information for air freight, compliance costs and penalties risks rise for importers and logistics providers.

Energy security via LNG contracting

With gas around 60% of Thailand’s power mix and domestic supply shrinking, PTT, Egat, and Gulf are locking in 15-year LNG contracts (e.g., 1 mtpa and 0.8 mtpa deals starting 2028). Greater price stability supports manufacturers, but contract costs and pass-through remain key.

Privacy and AI state regulation patchwork

Rapid state-led AI and privacy enforcement—California’s surveillance-pricing sweep, expanding CCPA cybersecurity audits, and new AI transparency/bias rules—creates a fragmented compliance landscape. Multinationals must harmonize data governance, algorithmic accountability, and consumer disclosures across jurisdictions.

Carbon market rollout and emissions caps

Vietnam is building a domestic carbon market: Decree 29/2026 sets the trading platform’s framework, with pilots through 2028 and full operation from 2029. Sector caps for 2025–26 (243–268 MtCO2e) start shaping compliance and green investment priorities.

Currency collapse and inflation shock

The rial’s rapid depreciation and high inflation undermine pricing, working capital, and import affordability, driving ad hoc controls and payment delays. Businesses face FX convertibility risk, volatile local demand, and greater reliance on barter, intermediaries, and informal settlement channels.

Trade frictions and border infrastructure

Political escalation is spilling into infrastructure and customs risk, highlighted by threats to block the Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge opening unless terms change. Any disruption at key crossings would materially affect just-in-time manufacturing, warehousing costs, and delivery reliability.

Hydrogen-Roadmap bleibt für Wärme unsicher

Restrukturierungen im Wasserstoffsektor und Debatten über überdimensionierte Infrastruktur deuten auf Verzögerungen beim H2-Hochlauf. Für Wärmeanwendungen (H2-ready Kessel, Spitzenlast, Industrie-Wärme) bleibt die Import- und Preisunsicherheit hoch, was Investitionen in H2-kompatible Assets risikoreicher macht.

Resource-license crackdown and land seizures

Authorities report seizures of over 4 million hectares of mines/plantations and US$1.7bn in fines amid anti-illegal mining actions, with more potential seizures. While improving governance, the campaign can disrupt operations, alter ownership, and increase due-diligence and counterpart risk for investors.

Cost-competitiveness in processing

High energy, labor and compliance costs are challenging Australia’s ambitions to move up the value chain, illustrated by the planned closure of a WA lithium refinery amid weak prices. Investors should stress-test projects for cost inflation and price bifurcation scenarios.

Semiconductor sovereignty and subsidy pull

An €830 million EU-backed ‘Fames’ pilot line in Grenoble strengthens France’s role in the EU Chips Act ecosystem. It improves access to advanced R&D and prototyping for firms, but also intensifies subsidy-linked compliance and localization expectations for participants and suppliers.

LNG buildout and gas transition

Vietnam is scaling LNG to reduce domestic gas decline and support industry. PV Gas is advancing 1–3 mtpa Bac Trung Bo LNG (Phase 1 around 2029–2030) and investing >VND 100 trillion through 2030. LNG infrastructure reshapes fuel costs, contracting, and port logistics.

Agua y clima: riesgo transfronterizo

México se comprometió a entregar al menos 350,000 acre‑pies anuales a EE. UU. bajo el Tratado de 1944 y a pagar adeudos previos, tras amenazas arancelarias. Sequías y asignaciones industriales pueden generar paros, conflictos sociales y exposición comercial en agroindustria.

US-Zölle und Handelsumlenkung

US-Protektionspolitik dämpft deutsche Exporte in die USA (2025: -9,4% auf €146,2 Mrd.) und kann chinesische Warenströme nach Europa umlenken. Das erhöht Preisdruck, Antidumping-Risiken und Planungsunsicherheit für Investitionen, insbesondere in Auto-, Maschinenbau- und Stahlwertschöpfung.

Gargalos logísticos no Porto

O megaterminal Tecon Santos 10 enfrenta atrasos e controvérsias sobre elegibilidade no leilão, elevando risco de judicialização. Exportadores reportaram perdas: no café, R$ 66,1 milhões e 1.824 contêineres/mês não embarcados, com US$ 2,64 bilhões em divisas perdidas em 2025.

Shipping profitability amid freight slump

Korea’s flagship carrier HMM stayed profitable (13.4% operating margin) despite a 37% SCFI drop and route rate falls near 49% to the U.S. and Europe. Vessel oversupply and Red Sea security remain swing factors for lead times, surcharges, and contract rates.

Election outcome and policy clarity

The February 2026 election and constitutional-rewrite mandate shape near-term policy continuity, regulatory predictability, and reform pace. Markets rallied on reduced instability risk, but coalition bargaining can delay budgets, incentives, and infrastructure decisions crucial for foreign investors and contractors.

Vision 2030 strategy recalibration

PIF’s 2026–2030 strategy reset shifts Vision 2030 from capital-intensive mega-projects toward industry, minerals, AI, logistics and tourism, while re-scoping NEOM and others. For investors, this changes project pipelines, counterparties, procurement priorities and timeline risk across sectors.

Nominee crackdown and AML scrutiny

Authorities will probe 110,000 foreign-invested firms for nominee structures and shell accounts, with penalties up to three years’ jail and THB1m fines. This raises compliance, KYC/AML and corporate-structure risk for foreign investors, advisors and real-estate-linked operations.

Risco fiscal e trajetória da dívida

Gastos federais cresceram 3,37% acima do teto real de 2,5% em 2025 e o déficit primário ficou em 0,43% do PIB; a dívida bruta chegou a 78,7% do PIB, elevando risco-país, câmbio e custo de capital.

Border crossings and movement controls

The limited reopening of Rafah for people—under Israeli security clearance and EU supervision—highlights how border-regime shifts can quickly change labor mobility, humanitarian flows and regional political risk. Businesses should expect sudden permitting changes affecting contractors, travel and project timelines.

Workforce nationalisation and labour reforms

Saudi authorities are tightening Saudization in selected functions (e.g., sales/marketing mandates reported up to 60% for targeted roles) alongside broader labour-law amendments. Firms must redesign HR operating models, pay structures, and compliance controls to avoid penalties and operational disruption.

Economic security industrial policy expansion

Japan is moving to expand economic-security tools and support “strategic” projects, including overseas initiatives and sensitive supply chains. Expect more subsidies, screening, and reporting in semiconductors, batteries and critical minerals, affecting market entry and procurement.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing is tightening oversight of rare earths and other strategic inputs, where it controls roughly 70% of mining and ~90% of processing. Export licensing, reporting and informal guidance can abruptly reprice magnets, EVs, electronics and defence supply chains, accelerating costly diversification efforts.

Indo-Pacific decoupling, China risk

An updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes critical-mineral diversification, anti-coercion coordination, and tighter technology alignment with like-minded partners. For firms, this raises the likelihood of China-facing export controls, dual-use compliance burdens, and accelerated “China+1” supply-chain restructuring.

Rail connectivity and cross-border links

Saudi Railways moved 30m tonnes freight in 2025 and 14m passengers, displacing ~2m truck trips and cutting 364k tonnes emissions. New rolling-stock deals and the approved Riyadh–Doha high-speed rail deepen regional connectivity for labour, tourism, and time-sensitive cargo.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.