Maritime industrial policy and fees

The Maritime Action Plan proposes rebuilding shipyards, expanding US-flag capacity, and considering fees on foreign-built vessels entering US ports to fund a trust. If implemented, ocean freight costs, routing choices, and port-call economics could materially change for importers and carriers.

Tourism-driven FX inflows resilience

Tourism remains a stabilizing hard‑currency source: 2025 revenue was $65.2bn on 63.9m visitors, with a 2026 target of $68bn. Strong inflows can support reserves and services demand, benefiting aviation, hospitality, and payments—but exposes firms to seasonality.

Currency volatility and capital flows

Risk-off episodes can trigger sharp foreign outflows and TWD depreciation; recent moves saw the Taiwan dollar near 31.8 per USD and record weekly equity selling. Companies should strengthen FX hedging, review pricing clauses, and stress-test liquidity for import-heavy operations.

Critical minerals export controls

Beijing is tightening rare-earth and critical-mineral policy, improving export-control systems and using licensing to manage access. With China processing about 90% of rare earths, supply disruptions and price spikes can hit EV, defense, and electronics supply chains worldwide.

Chabahar and corridor uncertainty

Strategic logistics projects such as Chabahar and the INSTC face growing political and sanctions uncertainty, including waiver changes. Investors face contract enforceability, insurance and security costs, and delayed rail/port upgrades—reducing corridor reliability for India–Central Asia trade.

Critical minerals diversification push

China’s dual-use export controls affecting Japanese entities are accelerating diversification. Japan is in talks with India to develop Rajasthan hard-rock rare earths (1.29m tonnes REO identified) for magnet supply, changing sourcing strategies for EVs, electronics, and defense supply chains.

Governance and anti-corruption scrutiny

High-profile investigations in strategic sectors (notably energy) and donor conditionality keep governance risk central. Political fallout from anti-corruption actions can affect state-owned enterprise contracts, permitting, and procurement timelines, increasing the value of robust compliance programs and transparent tender strategies.

Rail freight push via Eurohub

Government is investing about £15m to upgrade Barking Eurohub, enabling more intermodal freight trains through the Channel Tunnel. If scaled, it could remove ~140,000 HGVs from Kent roads annually, improving cross‑Channel reliability, lowering emissions and easing congestion-related delivery delays.

Manufacturing erosion and import competition

Factory closures and supply-chain hollowing in autos and consumer goods reflect rising low-cost imports (Chinese models ~22% of vehicle imports) and illicit trade. Delays on new-energy vehicle policy and trade remedies increase risk to OEM footprints, supplier localisation, and export competitiveness.

Critical minerals and strategic supply chains

Canada is positioning critical minerals as a strategic lever for allied supply chains, alongside potential US investigations into minerals and stronger content rules. This boosts mining and processing opportunities, but raises permitting, community-consent, and export-control compliance requirements for investors and downstream manufacturers.

IMF program and reform conditionality

IMF completion of Egypt’s fifth and sixth EFF reviews unlocks about $2.0bn plus $273m RSF, reinforcing policy discipline. However, uneven structural reforms and slow state-asset divestment create regulatory uncertainty affecting privatizations, procurement, and investor confidence.

Zim sale reshapes trade resilience

Proposed sale of Zim to Hapag-Lloyd/FIMI raises national-security scrutiny over Israel’s dependence on foreign-controlled shipping during emergencies. Requirements like an 11-vessel “golden share” structure may affect route coverage, capacity guarantees, pricing, and strategic supply assurances for critical goods.

Canada–China thaw, security tradeoffs

Canada is expanding trade with China to offset U.S. exposure, but deeper engagement elevates geopolitical, reputational and compliance risks amid foreign-interference concerns and sensitive law-enforcement cooperation. Firms should tighten due diligence, IP controls, and sanctions screening.

Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Treasury’s OFAC expanded designations targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and procurement networks, signaling aggressive secondary-risk posture for shipping, traders and banks. Multinationals face heightened screening needs, shipment delays, higher insurance costs, and greater penalties exposure for facilitation.

Procurement access tied to regional HQ

Saudi Arabia has relaxed its rule barring government contracts for firms without a regional headquarters, allowing exceptions via the Etimad platform to protect project delivery. This opens near-term tender access, but compliance, pricing thresholds, and localization expectations still shape bid competitiveness and operating models.

Data sovereignty pushback abroad

US diplomacy is actively opposing foreign data-localization initiatives (citing GDPR-like restrictions) to protect cross-border data flows for cloud and AI services. Firms should anticipate policy disputes, divergent privacy compliance, data-transfer mechanisms, and potential retaliation in digital trade.

China decoupling and retaliation cycle

U.S.-China trade is shifting toward “managed” arrangements while keeping high China tariffs (often 35–50%) and contemplating new Section 301 cases and even PNTR revocation studies. Beijing signals countermeasures, raising risks for dual‑use, consumer, and industrial supply chains.

EU market access and EPA transition

Uganda and the EU are nearing an Economic Partnership Agreement: up to 80% of EU goods could enter duty-free over time while sensitive sectors stay protected. Exporters must prepare for stricter SPS, traceability and rules-of-origin as LDC benefits evolve.

Border disruptions, transit trade growth

Thai-Cambodian tensions and Myanmar instability are disrupting overland logistics and checkpoint operations, while transit trade hit a record 1.04 trillion baht in 2025. Supply chains should build redundancy via sea routes, Laos/Vietnam corridors, and risk-aware inventory planning near border hubs.

Trade preference and U.S. market exposure

Exporters remain sensitive to uncertainty around U.S. preferential access (AGOA) and broader geopolitical frictions, with outsized exposure in automotive, agriculture and manufactured goods. Firms should diversify markets, scenario-plan tariff shocks, and harden compliance screening.

Land bridge logistics megaproject

The government is advancing a 990 billion baht ‘land bridge’ under the Southern Economic Corridor to connect Gulf and Andaman ports via rail and motorway under a 50-year PPP. If legislation progresses, it could reshape regional shipping, warehousing, and industrial location strategies.

De minimis and import enforcement

Washington is reshaping import enforcement, including curbs or suspension of duty‑free de minimis treatment and tighter screening for forced‑labor and evasion. Cross‑border e‑commerce and consumer goods supply chains should expect longer clearance times, higher landed costs, and expanded documentation demands.

India pivot and CEPA acceleration

Canada is rebuilding India ties and restarting comprehensive trade talks, with reported plans for a 10-year C$2.8B uranium supply deal and broader cooperation in AI, energy and critical minerals. Successful progress would diversify market access, but diaspora-security sensitivities can disrupt momentum.

Labour shortages and mobilisation pressure

Mobilisation and displacement continue to tighten labour markets, raising wage pressure and reducing skilled workforce availability in manufacturing, construction, and logistics. Companies face productivity constraints, higher training costs, and execution risk for reconstruction projects and long-duration contracts.

Shadow fleet logistics and enforcement

Investigations show complex “shadow fleet” networks masking Russian oil origins, including ~48 shell firms shipping at least $90bn and rapid entity turnover. Physical enforcement is rising (detentions, fines). Shipping, insurance, and commodity traders face higher disruption, fraud, and reputational risk.

Reforma tributária: transição CBS/IBS

A implementação do novo IVA dual (CBS/IBS) exigirá reconfiguração de ERP, faturamento e precificação, com risco de litígios na transição. Empresas com operações multiestaduais e cadeias complexas devem planejar compliance e caixa, especialmente em importação, créditos e incentivos regionais.

Ports, air cargo, multimodal logistics

Major logistics capacity is coming online: Great Nicobar transshipment port (phase 1 by 2028; 4+ million TEU), FedEx’s ₹2,500‑crore Navi Mumbai air hub, and Gati Shakti rail cargo terminals. These can lower export lead times but add project, permitting, and integration risk.

China de-risking and market access

Germany’s China exposure remains high: 2025 bilateral trade totaled €251.8bn, while firms report rising intervention and unequal competition. De-risking efforts and tougher screening can reshape sourcing for critical inputs, force localisation choices, and raise geopolitical contingency planning costs.

Energy security and LNG flexibility

Japanese firms handled ~110 million tons of LNG in 2024; destination-restricted volumes remain ~40%, though projected to decline. JERA’s long-term Qatar deal (3 mtpa for 27 years) plus U.S. LNG adds resilience, influencing power costs and contract strategies.

Cross-strait conflict and blockade risk

Elevated China–Taiwan tensions keep tail-risk of air/sea disruption high, affecting Taipei/Kaohsiung throughput, insurance premiums, and just-in-time electronics supply. Firms should harden contingency routing, inventory buffers, and crisis communications, especially for semiconductor-dependent products.

Sanctions expansion and compliance burden

Ukraine is tightening sanctions against Russia-linked defense, finance, crypto, and “shadow fleet” actors, including 225 captains and dozens of entities. Multinationals face heightened due-diligence, counterparty screening, and shipping-chain transparency requirements to avoid secondary exposure and reputational risk.

Security environment and border tensions

Militancy risks and periodic Pakistan–Afghanistan border escalations elevate duty-of-care, route security, and insurance costs, with potential for localized disruptions in transport corridors. Firms should plan for contingency logistics, staff mobility constraints, and heightened scrutiny for dual-use goods.

FX management and yuan volatility

The PBOC is actively managing rapid yuan moves, scrapping the 20% FX forward risk reserve to cool appreciation after a >7% rise since April and $79.9bn January net FX inflows. This affects pricing, margins, hedging costs, and repatriation strategies for exporters and importers.

Tightening investment and security screening

US scrutiny of foreign investment via CFIUS and related national-security reviews remains stringent, especially in sensitive tech, data, and critical infrastructure. Deal timelines may lengthen, mitigation requirements rise, and some transactions face prohibitions or forced divestment risk.

Anti-corruption tightening and compliance

A new Party resolution on anti-corruption and waste is set for adoption, emphasizing stronger deterrence, post-audit controls, and scrutiny of high-risk sectors. While improving integrity over time, short-term effects include slower approvals, higher documentation burdens, and elevated enforcement risk for partners and intermediaries.

Energy security LNG chokepoints

Taiwan’s power mix is ~50% gas; about one-third of its gas and 60% of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz. Gas stockpiles are ~11 days (planned 14 by 2027). Disruptions would threaten semiconductor uptime and raise costs via coal fallback.