Energiepreise und Importabhängigkeit

Deutschlands Wettbewerbsfähigkeit bleibt stark energiepreisgetrieben: Gasversorgung stützt sich auf Norwegen/Niederlande/Belgien, LNG macht rund 10% der Importe aus, davon überwiegend USA. Diversifizierung (u.a. Golfstaaten) und Netzentgelte beeinflussen Standortkosten, Verträge und Investitionsentscheidungen.

Industrial decarbonisation subsidy wave

Paris is deploying large-scale state aid to keep energy‑intensive industry in France: €1.6bn over 15 years for seven sites, targeting ~3.8 Mt CO2/year abatement (~1% of national emissions). Subsidy conditionality and EU state‑aid scrutiny affect project bankability.

Hydrogen and ammonia export corridors

Saudi firms are building future clean-fuel export pathways, including planned ammonia shipments from Yanbu to Rostock starting around 2030 and waste-to-hydrogen/SAF partnerships. These signal emerging offtake markets, new industrial clusters, and long-lead infrastructure requirements for investors.

Record Export Growth Driven by Chips

South Korea’s exports surged 34% year-on-year in January to $65.85 billion, led by booming semiconductor demand for AI servers and memory chips. This export momentum, especially to China and the US, underpins economic resilience but faces risks from protectionist policies and supply chain disruptions.

Trade Diversification Amid US Tariffs

Facing 50% US tariffs, India has accelerated trade agreements with the EU, UK, Oman, and New Zealand. This strategic pivot reduces dependence on the US, hedges against protectionism, and opens new markets for labor-intensive and technology-driven exports.

Energy transition and critical minerals

India targets rare-earth corridors and a ₹7,280 crore permanent-magnets incentive, reflecting urgency after China export curbs. Renewable capacity reached ~254 GW (49.83% of installed) by Nov 2025, boosting investment in grids, storage, and clean-tech supply chains.

Rising Non-Oil Exports and Trade Diversification

Non-oil exports grew by 17% in 2025 to $48.6 billion, narrowing the trade deficit by 9%. Key export sectors include building materials, chemicals, and food. This diversification supports economic resilience and offers new opportunities for international trade partnerships.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and FTA Utilization

Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with the US and India, create uncertainty for exporters. Only 54% of eligible Thai exporters use FTA benefits, prompting government efforts to streamline certification, diversify markets, and expand mutual recognition agreements to enhance trade resilience.

China exposure and strategic assets

Australia’s China-linked trade and investment exposure remains a top operational risk. Moves to potentially reclaim Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, alongside AUKUS posture, raise retaliation risk. Western Australia’s iron ore exports to China near A$100bn underline concentration risk for supply and revenues.

US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Tech resilience amid war cycle

Israel’s high-tech and chip-equipment champions remain globally competitive, benefiting from AI-driven demand, sustaining capital inflows. Yet talent mobilisation, investor risk perceptions, and regional instability influence valuations, deal timelines, and R&D footprint decisions for foreign partners.

Netzausbau, Speicher, Genehmigungen

Beschleunigter Ausbau von Übertragungsnetzen und Flexibilitätslösungen wird zentral. Der Bund steigt bei Tennet mit 25,1% ein (bis zu 7,6 Mrd. €). Gleichzeitig bremsen knappe Netzanschlüsse, lange Verfahren und Regelwerkslücken Investitionen in Speicher, Erneuerbare und neue Industrieansiedlungen.

Macroeconomic rebound with fiscal strain

IMF projects Israel could grow about 4.8% in 2026 if the ceasefire holds, driven by delayed consumption and investment. However, war-related debt, defense spending and labor constraints pressure fiscal consolidation, influencing taxation, public procurement priorities, and sovereign risk pricing.

Energy security and LNG contracting

Shrinking domestic gas output and delayed petroleum-law amendments increase reliance on LNG; gas supplies roughly 60% of power generation. PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking long-term LNG deals (15-year contracts, 0.8–1.0 mtpa). Electricity-price volatility and industrial costs remain key.

Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD

A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.

EU accession-driven regulatory convergence

Kyiv targets EU membership by 2027, accelerating alignment on standards, customs, competition, and public procurement. For exporters and investors this can reduce long-term market access friction, but creates near-term compliance churn, documentation demands, and shifting tariff and quota regimes.

Infrastructure capex boosts logistics

Economic Survey signals sustained infrastructure push via PM GatiShakti and high public capex. Rail electrification reached 99.1% by Oct 2025; inland water cargo rose to 146 MMT in FY25; ports improve global rankings—lowering transit times and costs.

Cybersecurity enforcement and compliance

Regulators are escalating cyber-resilience expectations. A landmark ASIC case imposed A$2.5m penalties after a breach leaked ~385GB of client data affecting ~18,000 customers, signalling higher compliance burdens, greater board accountability, and heightened due diligence requirements for vendors handling sensitive data.

Escalating tariffs and legal risk

Wide-ranging import tariffs—especially on China—are lifting input costs and retail prices, while Supreme Court review of IEEPA authorities adds reversal risk. Companies should stress-test pricing, customs bonds, and contract clauses for sudden duty changes.

Energy security via long LNG

Japan is locking in long-duration LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for ~3 Mtpa from 2028 and potential Japanese equity in Qatar’s North Field South. This supports power reliability for data centers/semiconductors but reduces fuel flexibility via destination clauses.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

US–Taiwan tech security partnerships

Deepening cooperation on AI, drones, critical minerals, and supply-chain security signals a shift toward ‘trusted networks’. Companies may gain market access and certification pathways, but face stricter due diligence on China exposure, data governance, and third-country joint projects.

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience

Mexico is central to trilateral efforts with the US, EU, and Japan to secure critical mineral supply chains. Coordinated policies, investment, and new trade frameworks aim to mitigate vulnerabilities, diversify sources, and support strategic industries such as EVs and electronics.

US Energy Transition and Climate Policy

Federal investment in clean energy and infrastructure modernization is accelerating, but regulatory uncertainty and political resistance persist. Businesses face shifting incentives, compliance requirements, and supply chain adjustments as the US seeks to balance energy security with climate commitments.

Macroeconomic Stabilization and Growth Momentum

Pakistan has shifted from crisis management to strategic repositioning, achieving GDP growth above 3.7%, a fiscal surplus, and declining inflation. These improvements have boosted investor confidence, but sustained policy continuity and private sector participation are critical for long-term business stability and growth.

EU customs union modernization push

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 customs union, while business groups press for progress and visa facilitation. Potential updates could broaden sector coverage and ease frictions, materially benefiting manufacturers, logistics, and EU-facing investment cases.

Challenging Investment Climate and M&A

Brazil’s investment environment is marked by high interest rates, fiscal constraints, and political polarization. M&A activity remains subdued, but the Mercosur-EU agreement and foreign interest in mining, energy, and technology sectors could stimulate strategic investments and sectoral shifts.

Supply-chain bloc formation pressures

US-led efforts to build critical-minerals “preferential zones” with reference prices and tariffs signal broader de-risking blocs. Companies may face bifurcated supply chains, dual standards, and requalification of suppliers as trade rules diverge between China-centric and allied networks.

Semiconductor geopolitics and reshoring

TSMC’s expanded US investment deepens supply-chain bifurcation as Washington tightens technology controls and seeks onshore capacity. Companies must manage dual compliance regimes, IP protection, export licensing, and supplier localization decisions across US, Taiwan, and China markets.

Energy grid attacks and rationing

Sustained Russian strikes on 750kV/330kV substations and plants are “islanding” the grid, driving nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce output. Power deficits disrupt factories, ports, and rail operations, raise operating costs, and delay investment timelines.

Semiconductor Industry Expansion and Resilience

Massive investments, including TSMC’s Kumamoto project, are transforming Japan’s semiconductor sector, with 6.2 trillion yen projected by 2030. This shift, driven by AI demand and 'de-China' strategies, positions Japan as a key global hub, attracting supply chain partners and foreign capital.

Alliance rebalancing and security posture

US strategy signals greater Korean responsibility for deterring North Korea, with discussions on wartime OPCON transfer and cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines. A shifting force posture can affect political risk perceptions, defense procurement, technology transfer, and resilience planning for firms operating in Korea.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

Shadow fleet interdiction and shipping risk

Western enforcement is shifting from monitoring to interdiction: boardings, seizures, and “stateless vessel” designations target Russia-linked tankers using false flags and AIS gaps. This increases marine insurance premiums, port due‑diligence burdens, and disruption risk for Black Sea, Baltic, and Mediterranean routes.

RBA tightening and persistent inflation risk

The RBA lifted the cash rate to 3.85% as core inflation re-accelerated and capacity pressures persisted. Higher financing costs and a stronger AUD can affect valuations, capex and consumer demand, while raising hedging needs for importers/exporters and tightening credit conditions across supply chains.

Energy security and gas reservation

Federal plans to introduce an east-coast gas reservation from 2027—requiring LNG exporters to reserve 15–25% for domestic supply—could alter contract structures, price dynamics and feedstock certainty for manufacturers and data centres. Producers warn of arbitrage and margin impacts in winter peaks.