Return to Homepage
Image

Mission Grey Daily Brief - June 25, 2024

Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors

The world is witnessing a multitude of developments, from political shifts in Latin America to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In Afghanistan, the UN highlights the worsening women's rights crisis. Meanwhile, the US-backed Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti faces scrutiny. China continues to be a country of concern, with dissidents escaping by sea and a China-backed pipeline in Niger facing challenges.

Political Turmoil in Latin America

Bolivia is experiencing a bitter political fight that is paralyzing the government and exacerbating economic woes. Mexico's recent election saw the continuation of President Lopez Obrador's rule, marked by disinformation, polarization, and unfulfilled promises. The country faces challenges such as economic inequality, high crime rates, and environmental destruction.

Afghanistan's Worsening Women's Rights Crisis

The UN declares that Afghanistan has the most serious women's rights crisis globally, and the situation is deteriorating. This crisis, along with the Taliban's leadership, has led to sporting sanctions and international condemnation.

US-backed MSS Mission in Haiti

The Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, involving 200 Kenyan police officers, is facing scrutiny from media outlets and human rights groups. The deployment has been characterized as a "low-key invasion," with concerns about its potential impact on Haiti's security and stability.

China-backed Pipeline in Niger Faces Challenges

A China-backed oil pipeline in Niger, intended to boost the country's oil exports and economic growth, is facing setbacks due to diplomatic disputes with neighboring Benin and attacks by a local rebel group. This has led to concerns about Niger's economic future, particularly its ability to fund public services.

Risks and Opportunities

  • Risk: The political turmoil in Bolivia could lead to continued government paralysis and economic instability, impacting businesses operating in the country.
  • Opportunity: Mexico's new government may implement social programs and infrastructure projects, creating opportunities for businesses in certain sectors.
  • Risk: Afghanistan's women's rights crisis and sporting sanctions may deter foreign investment and impact businesses operating in the country.
  • Risk: The US-backed MSS mission in Haiti could face challenges in restoring security and stability, potentially affecting business operations and investments in the country.
  • Risk: The China-backed pipeline in Niger faces uncertainty due to diplomatic tensions and security threats, which could impact Niger's economic growth and business opportunities.

Recommendations for Businesses and Investors

  • Monitor the political situation in Bolivia closely and assess the potential impact on your operations and investments in the country.
  • Stay informed about policy changes and social programs in Mexico and explore opportunities to contribute to infrastructure projects and social initiatives.
  • When considering investments in Afghanistan, carefully evaluate the risks associated with the country's human rights situation and sporting sanctions.
  • For businesses operating in Haiti, stay updated on the MSS mission's progress and its potential impact on the security landscape.
  • Reevaluate investment strategies related to the China-backed pipeline in Niger, considering the diplomatic and security challenges it faces.

Further Reading:

Aerial Drone Likely Launched by Yemen's Houthi Rebels Hits Ship in the Red Sea - U.S. News & World Report

Afghanistan has the most serious women’s rights crisis in the world, the UN says. And it's getting worse - Toronto Star

Afghanistan trigger a cricket earthquake, put Australia’s cup campaign on the ropes - Sydney Morning Herald

After Escaping China by Sea, a Dissident Faces His Next Act - The New York Times

An Israel offensive into Lebanon risks an Iranian military response, top U.S. military leader says - Toronto Star

An Israel offensive into Lebanon risks an Iranian military response, top US military leader says - Toronto Star

Biden campaign struggles with Jewish voters amid Israel-Hamas war abroad, antisemitism at home: report - Fox News

Bitter political fight in Bolivia is paralyzing the government as unrest boils over economic crisis - Bowling Green Daily News

Coup-hit Niger was betting on a China-backed oil pipeline as a lifeline. Then the troubles began - The Independent

How will we cover the MSS, this low-key invasion of Haiti? | EDITORIAL - Haitian Times

In Mexico as in the US, Disinformation is a Powerful Brand - PRINT Magazine

Themes around the World:

Flag

CUSMA Renegotiation and Trade Bloc Realignment

With Canada’s exports to the U.S. at a 30-year low, the upcoming CUSMA renegotiation is pivotal. Outcomes could range from a complete overhaul to no agreement, pushing Canada to accelerate trade diversification with the EU, Asia, and the Global South, impacting long-term investment strategies and supply chain resilience.

Flag

Infrastructure Investment and Bottlenecks

Vietnam plans to secure $5.5 billion in foreign loans for infrastructure in 2026 and aims for $38 billion by 2030. However, persistent bottlenecks in land clearance, project approval, and disbursement threaten timely delivery, impacting logistics, FDI, and supply chain efficiency.

Flag

UK Government Pursues Diplomatic Resolution

Prime Minister Starmer has ruled out immediate tariff retaliation, emphasizing dialogue and alliance unity. The UK seeks to avoid escalation, but faces political pressure to defend national interests, balancing economic stability with transatlantic and European alliances.

Flag

Real Estate Market Correction and Recovery

Major Canadian cities have seen steep declines in real estate transactions and prices since 2021, with Toronto and Vancouver at multi-decade lows. While 2026 is forecast as a recovery year, high mortgage renewal rates and affordability issues will continue to influence investment and consumer demand.

Flag

EU Strategic Autonomy and Trade Defense

France is advocating for stronger EU trade defense tools, including the activation of the anti-coercion instrument, to counteract US and Chinese economic pressure. This shift toward strategic autonomy could reshape investment, procurement, and regulatory environments for international companies.

Flag

US-Israel Strategic Partnership and Aid

The US continues to provide substantial military and economic aid to Israel, reinforcing bilateral ties and defense cooperation. This partnership underpins Israel’s security posture but also shapes the regulatory and sanctions environment, influencing international investment and technology transfer.

Flag

Major Infrastructure Bottlenecks and Delays

Canada faces critical infrastructure gaps and slow project approvals, with over $126 billion in housing-enabling infrastructure at risk and complex regulatory hurdles. These delays undermine competitiveness, impede supply chain resilience, and deter both domestic and foreign investment in key sectors.

Flag

Cartel Violence and Organized Crime Risks

Persistent cartel violence, compounded by potential influxes of Venezuelan criminal groups, continues to threaten security, logistics, and investor confidence. Mexico’s border states remain especially vulnerable, requiring robust risk mitigation for supply chains and personnel.

Flag

North American Auto Market Protectionism

The US is barring Chinese electric vehicles and pressuring Canada to limit Chinese EV imports, citing national security and domestic industry protection. Regulatory barriers and tariffs reinforce US efforts to control auto supply chains, affecting regional trade relations and investment decisions.

Flag

Political Continuity Amid Leadership Transition

Vietnam’s 14th Communist Party Congress in January 2026 will set leadership and policy direction through 2030. While continuity is expected, the party aims for 10% annual GDP growth, balancing reduced foreign dependence with high-tech FDI attraction. Centralized authority may enhance decisiveness but narrows internal checks, impacting business predictability.

Flag

EU-US Trade Deal at Risk

The tariff dispute jeopardizes the recently negotiated EU-US trade agreement. Suspension or collapse of the deal would undermine market access, investment flows, and regulatory cooperation, with broad negative implications for Finnish and European businesses.

Flag

Political Uncertainty and Governance Risks

Upcoming municipal elections and potential leadership changes introduce policy unpredictability. While recent reforms and coalition governance have improved sentiment, concerns remain over service delivery, regulatory consistency, and the ability to sustain economic reforms, impacting long-term investment decisions.

Flag

Export-Led Growth and Trade Policy Shifts

Ambitious targets to double exports to $60 billion hinge on tax reforms, trade facilitation, and sectoral diversification. However, high energy costs, regulatory bottlenecks, and financial system distortions still hinder export competitiveness, making sustained reform execution critical for international trade expansion.

Flag

Strategic Reset With China

Canada and China have entered a new era of economic partnership, marked by reduced tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, and expanded cooperation in energy, finance, and agriculture. This recalibration aims to diversify Canada’s trade and investment flows, reducing overdependence on the US market.

Flag

Renewable Energy Transition and Grid Challenges

Australia’s accelerated shift toward renewables—now supplying over half of grid demand—has driven down wholesale electricity prices but exposed reliability risks. Delays in infrastructure, policy uncertainty, and the need for coal backup complicate the transition, affecting energy-intensive industries and investment strategies.

Flag

Labor Market Structural Transition

Taiwan’s labor market is undergoing structural change, driven by AI adoption, precision workforce planning, and geopolitical uncertainty. Companies face talent shortages in high-tech sectors and must adapt hiring strategies to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving environment.

Flag

Supply Chain and Logistics Vulnerabilities

Frequent attacks on transport, energy, and port infrastructure have exposed Ukraine’s supply chain vulnerabilities. Businesses face heightened risks of delays, increased costs, and the need for contingency planning and diversification of routes and suppliers.

Flag

Diplomatic and Economic Relations Under Strain

US-Denmark tensions over Greenland have strained diplomatic and economic ties, risking disruption to trade, investment flows, and cooperation in sectors such as energy, logistics, and technology. Businesses must monitor evolving bilateral relations for potential regulatory and market impacts.

Flag

Critical Minerals and Mining Expansion

Saudi Arabia is investing $2.5 trillion in mineral reserves, including rare earths, gold, copper, and lithium, aiming to become a global mining and processing hub. Strategic partnerships with the US, Canada, Brazil, and others are reshaping global supply chains and reducing reliance on China for critical minerals.

Flag

Inflation Moderation and Currency Stability

Annual inflation fell to 10.3% in December 2025 from 23.4% a year earlier, mainly due to lower food prices. However, non-food inflation remains high, and the Egyptian pound is under pressure from debt and import needs, affecting consumer demand and business costs.

Flag

US-Australia Strategic Partnership Deepens

Recent agreements on critical minerals and defense supply chains signal a deepening US-Australia strategic partnership. Joint initiatives aim to counter China’s dominance in key sectors, strengthen Indo-Pacific security, and foster investment in advanced manufacturing and technology.

Flag

Activation of EU Anti-Coercion Instrument

France is leading calls to activate the EU’s anti-coercion instrument in response to US economic pressure. This unprecedented move could trigger retaliatory trade measures, restrict US firms’ access to EU markets, and reshape the legal and operational environment for international businesses.

Flag

Shifting Supply Chains Post-Tariffs

U.S.-China trade contraction in 2025 drove a 28% increase in U.S. imports from Thailand, making it a key beneficiary of global sourcing shifts. However, future legal changes and trade deals could reverse these gains, impacting Thailand’s export-led growth.

Flag

Strategic Partnerships and Economic Diplomacy

Egypt is deepening economic ties with Gulf states, notably Qatar, through multi-billion-dollar investment agreements and energy cooperation. These partnerships diversify Egypt’s capital sources and support resilience amid regional and global economic pressures.

Flag

Eastern Economic Corridor Bottlenecks

Land and zoning constraints in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) have delayed major industrial projects, prompting urgent regulatory reforms. The government is also considering opening new regions for investment, which could reshape the industrial landscape and supply chain dynamics.

Flag

China Partnership and Market Risks

China remains Brazil’s largest trading partner, with 2025 exports reaching US$100 billion. However, recent Chinese quotas on beef and potential regulatory shifts highlight both the opportunities and the vulnerabilities of Brazil’s reliance on the Chinese market for key commodities.

Flag

EU Accession and Regulatory Reform

Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership is tied to reforms in governance, anti-corruption, and economic policy. EU integration promises a more predictable regulatory environment for investors but requires sustained compliance and institutional strengthening.

Flag

Risks of Industrial Decline Intensify

Brazil faces heightened risks of deindustrialization as the new trade deal exposes its higher-cost manufacturing sectors to European competition. Strategic industries like automotive, pharmaceuticals, and machinery may see increased imports, reduced local investment, and job losses unless robust industrial policies are enacted.

Flag

Energy Transition and LNG Imports Surge

Egypt’s domestic gas production has declined, driving record LNG imports—9.01 million metric tons in 2025, mostly from the US. New agreements with Qatar and Israel aim to secure supply, but Egypt’s shift from exporter to major importer impacts energy costs, industrial competitiveness, and investment strategies.

Flag

Suez Canal Economic Zone Expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone reported 55% revenue growth in 2025 and attracted $14.2 billion in investments across 383 projects. Industrial and port developments are transforming the zone into a regional logistics and manufacturing hub, boosting Egypt’s appeal for foreign direct investment and supply chain integration.

Flag

US Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty

Ongoing US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, linked to Russian oil imports and stalled trade negotiations, are disrupting exports—especially textiles, gems, and leather. This uncertainty pressures supply chains, currency stability, and investment planning, compelling Indian exporters to diversify markets and production bases.

Flag

Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy Changes

Russia’s budget deficit reached 2.6% of GDP in 2025, the highest since 2020, as energy revenues fell. The government raised VAT and other taxes to offset losses, increasing the fiscal burden on businesses and consumers and creating uncertainty for investors and multinational corporations.

Flag

Global Energy Market Realignment

Sanctions, falling oil prices, and Ukrainian attacks have pushed Russian oil exports to their lowest since 2022, with Urals crude dropping below $35 per barrel. Russia’s market share in India and China is shrinking, and clandestine shipping is rising, increasing operational risk for energy traders.

Flag

Political Polarization and Governance Challenges

Internal political polarization, social media-driven disinformation, and civil-military dynamics affect policy continuity and governance. These factors create uncertainty for international investors and complicate long-term business planning in Pakistan.

Flag

Labor Market Reform and Wage Pressure

2026 brings decisive labor reforms, including stricter inspections, higher minimum wages, and possible workweek reductions. These changes raise compliance costs and affect competitiveness, especially for SMEs and export-oriented sectors, while informal employment remains a persistent challenge.

Flag

Major Infrastructure and Digital Expansion

India’s infrastructure financing is integrating with global capital markets, focusing on green, resilient, and tech-enabled projects. Data center capacity doubled in 2025, with projections to triple by 2030, supporting digital transformation and robust supply chain logistics.