Mission Grey Daily Brief - June 25, 2024
Summary of the Global Situation for Businesses and Investors
The world is witnessing a multitude of developments, from political shifts in Latin America to escalating tensions in the Middle East. In Afghanistan, the UN highlights the worsening women's rights crisis. Meanwhile, the US-backed Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti faces scrutiny. China continues to be a country of concern, with dissidents escaping by sea and a China-backed pipeline in Niger facing challenges.
Political Turmoil in Latin America
Bolivia is experiencing a bitter political fight that is paralyzing the government and exacerbating economic woes. Mexico's recent election saw the continuation of President Lopez Obrador's rule, marked by disinformation, polarization, and unfulfilled promises. The country faces challenges such as economic inequality, high crime rates, and environmental destruction.
Afghanistan's Worsening Women's Rights Crisis
The UN declares that Afghanistan has the most serious women's rights crisis globally, and the situation is deteriorating. This crisis, along with the Taliban's leadership, has led to sporting sanctions and international condemnation.
US-backed MSS Mission in Haiti
The Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, involving 200 Kenyan police officers, is facing scrutiny from media outlets and human rights groups. The deployment has been characterized as a "low-key invasion," with concerns about its potential impact on Haiti's security and stability.
China-backed Pipeline in Niger Faces Challenges
A China-backed oil pipeline in Niger, intended to boost the country's oil exports and economic growth, is facing setbacks due to diplomatic disputes with neighboring Benin and attacks by a local rebel group. This has led to concerns about Niger's economic future, particularly its ability to fund public services.
Risks and Opportunities
- Risk: The political turmoil in Bolivia could lead to continued government paralysis and economic instability, impacting businesses operating in the country.
- Opportunity: Mexico's new government may implement social programs and infrastructure projects, creating opportunities for businesses in certain sectors.
- Risk: Afghanistan's women's rights crisis and sporting sanctions may deter foreign investment and impact businesses operating in the country.
- Risk: The US-backed MSS mission in Haiti could face challenges in restoring security and stability, potentially affecting business operations and investments in the country.
- Risk: The China-backed pipeline in Niger faces uncertainty due to diplomatic tensions and security threats, which could impact Niger's economic growth and business opportunities.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
- Monitor the political situation in Bolivia closely and assess the potential impact on your operations and investments in the country.
- Stay informed about policy changes and social programs in Mexico and explore opportunities to contribute to infrastructure projects and social initiatives.
- When considering investments in Afghanistan, carefully evaluate the risks associated with the country's human rights situation and sporting sanctions.
- For businesses operating in Haiti, stay updated on the MSS mission's progress and its potential impact on the security landscape.
- Reevaluate investment strategies related to the China-backed pipeline in Niger, considering the diplomatic and security challenges it faces.
Further Reading:
After Escaping China by Sea, a Dissident Faces His Next Act - The New York Times
How will we cover the MSS, this low-key invasion of Haiti? | EDITORIAL - Haitian Times
In Mexico as in the US, Disinformation is a Powerful Brand - PRINT Magazine
Themes around the World:
Regulatory Uncertainty for Foreign Investors
China’s evolving regulatory environment, including increased scrutiny of foreign acquisitions and new restrictions on sensitive sectors, creates uncertainty for international investors. While IPO reforms and market opening continue, the risk of abrupt policy shifts remains a key concern for strategic planning.
Semiconductor Supply Chain Reshoring
The agreement aims to relocate up to 40% of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain to the US. TSMC and peers will build multiple advanced fabs in Arizona, backed by $250 billion in credit guarantees, reducing US reliance on Taiwan and mitigating geopolitical risks.
Global Supply Chain Realignment
US tariff policy has accelerated the diversification of supply chains away from China, with countries like Indonesia and Thailand seeing import growth of 34% and 28% respectively. Businesses are reconfiguring sourcing and logistics, impacting investment strategies and operational resilience.
Aggressive Land Reclamation and Regulatory Risk
The government’s plan to reclaim 4–5 million hectares from plantation and mining firms heightens regulatory and asset security risks. This campaign impacts palm oil, forestry, and mining, raising concerns about policy stability, compliance costs, and foreign investor confidence.
Trade Policy Protectionism and Import Controls
France has suspended imports of certain South American products over non-compliance with EU standards and is pushing for stricter border controls. This signals a more protectionist stance, increasing compliance costs and uncertainty for international suppliers and food sector operators.
OECD Accession and Global Integration
Indonesia’s accelerated bid to join the OECD involves aligning with international standards on governance, regulation, and competitiveness. This process is expected to improve the investment framework, enhance transparency, and facilitate deeper integration with global markets, benefiting international business operations.
Financial Sector Volatility and Shadow Banking
The UK financial sector faces ongoing challenges from declining business volumes and profitability, alongside systemic risks from the booming, largely unregulated $16tn shadow banking sector. Regulatory vigilance and stress testing are crucial to safeguard stability and investor confidence.
Vision 2030 Giga-Projects Acceleration
Saudi Arabia’s giga-projects, such as Qiddiya and NEOM, are advancing rapidly, with major infrastructure and entertainment investments. These projects aim to diversify the economy, create up to 85,000 jobs by 2030, and generate significant non-oil revenue, attracting global investors and supply chain partners.
Export-Led Growth Under Global Pressures
Vietnam’s export-driven economy faces mounting US tariffs (up to 20%) and EU trade measures, threatening key market access. The government is actively diversifying export destinations to mitigate risks, but global trade tensions remain a significant operational challenge.
Retaliatory Tariffs and Regulatory Risks
The EU is considering €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs and regulatory measures targeting US goods and services. Finnish firms operating in or exporting to the US could face new barriers, compliance costs, and restricted market opportunities.
Geopolitical Influence on US Trade Agreements
US trade negotiations with partners like India and Taiwan are increasingly shaped by strategic considerations, such as technology alliances and supply chain security. This trend links trade policy to broader geopolitical objectives, complicating deal-making and impacting global investment strategies.
Global Supply Chains Face Realignment
US policies on tariffs, export controls, and investment screening are accelerating the realignment of global supply chains. Companies are diversifying sourcing and production, investing in US and allied markets, and reassessing risk exposure to geopolitical shocks, especially in high-tech sectors.
Port and Logistics System Weakness
Persistent inefficiencies in South Africa’s ports and railways, especially at Cape Town and Durban, continue to undermine export competitiveness and supply chain reliability. Despite some reforms, structural weaknesses in logistics remain a major constraint for international trade and business operations.
USMCA Review and Trade Uncertainty
The 2026 USMCA review is creating significant uncertainty for North American supply chains, especially as US President Trump has called the deal 'irrelevant' and threatened not to renew it. This could disrupt tariff-free trade, impacting automotive, electronics, and agricultural sectors.
Political Uncertainty Ahead of Elections
Political volatility, including Parliament dissolution and upcoming elections, creates uncertainty for business operations and investment planning. Coalition dynamics and reform agendas may alter regulatory environments, affecting strategic decisions for international investors.
USMCA Review and Trade Uncertainty
The 2026 USMCA (T-MEC) review injects significant uncertainty into North American trade. Potential renegotiation or non-renewal, especially amid US political volatility, threatens Mexico’s manufacturing, auto, and tech supply chains, with tariffs and rules-of-origin disputes at the forefront.
Foreign Exchange and Debt Pressures
Egypt faces significant external debt obligations, with $50 billion due in 2026 and total external debt at $163.7 billion. While foreign reserves reached $51.45 billion, reliance on Gulf deposits and IMF support underscores persistent currency and liquidity risks.
US Tariff Policy Reshapes Trade Flows
The US has intensified tariff measures, notably imposing 25% tariffs on advanced semiconductors and threatening further duties on key trading partners. These policies are fragmenting global trade, redirecting supply chains, and increasing costs for exporters, with significant implications for global inflation, investment, and supply chain resilience.
Geopolitical Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
France and the broader EU face increasing risks from supply chain dependencies, especially for critical minerals, electrical steel, and copper. Geopolitical tensions with China and hardware scarcity challenge the resilience of industrial and energy supply chains, impacting cost structures and strategic planning.
Ongoing Government Restructuring and Reform
President Zelenskyy continues to overhaul key ministries and security agencies, aiming to align governance with wartime needs and anti-corruption standards. These changes are critical for maintaining Western support but add short-term uncertainty to regulatory and business environments.
Regulatory Tightening in Cross-Border E-Commerce
Turkey abolished the simplified customs declaration for goods under €30, effective February 2026. All e-commerce imports now face standard procedures, increasing compliance costs and scrutiny for international platforms, with exceptions for medicines and supplements.
Escalating US Tariff Policy Volatility
Recent months have seen the US intensify its use of tariffs as a strategic tool, with threats of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods and new sectoral levies. This volatility increases uncertainty for global supply chains and investment planning, impacting cross-border trade flows and business costs.
Foreign Direct Investment and National Security Scrutiny
Canada is welcoming FDI in strategic sectors but maintains restrictions on foreign ownership in sensitive industries. Enhanced transparency and regulatory oversight reflect a balancing act between attracting capital and safeguarding national interests, especially in technology and critical minerals.
Chronic Economic Instability and Reform Imperative
Pakistan faces persistent economic instability, marked by declining foreign investment, high debt, and inflation. Structural reforms, improved governance, and policy consistency are urgently needed to restore investor confidence and enable sustainable growth, directly impacting international business strategies.
Energy Sector and Industrial Policy Dynamics
Petrobras-led initiatives are revitalizing Brazil’s naval and energy industries, while the government balances oil exploration with climate commitments. The sector’s performance, regulatory changes, and global commodity trends will influence Brazil’s industrial output, export capacity, and investment climate.
Geopolitical Tensions Disrupt Trade
Escalating US–China and US–Venezuela tensions heighten global trade uncertainty, impacting Thai exports, energy prices, and supply chains. Businesses face increased logistics costs and market volatility, especially in energy-intensive and export-oriented sectors, requiring robust risk management and market diversification strategies.
Northern Powerhouse Rail Investment
The government has committed up to £45 billion for Northern Powerhouse Rail, aiming to transform connectivity between major cities. This long-term infrastructure project will boost regional growth, create jobs, and unlock new business opportunities, but faces delivery risks.
Private Equity and Real Estate Investment Boom
Private equity investments rebounded 44% in Q4 2025, while real estate capital inflows hit a record $14.3 billion, up 25%. Foreign and domestic investors are focusing on land, office, and warehousing, signaling robust long-term confidence in India’s growth trajectory.
Energy Transition Drives Infrastructure Investment
Australia is accelerating its shift to renewables, with major wind, battery, and waste-to-energy projects underway. Policy incentives and private investment are transforming the energy landscape, but grid stability concerns and regulatory complexity challenge business planning and long-term investment strategies.
Political Instability and Security Risks
2025 was Pakistan’s deadliest year in a decade, with over 3,400 killings and violence up 34%. Persistent instability, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, increases operational risk, disrupts logistics, and raises costs for international businesses, particularly in energy, mining, and infrastructure.
Trade Policy Liberalization and Growth
Egypt’s trade reached $107.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, with a 19% rise in exports and a 16% drop in the trade deficit. Expanded trade agreements and customs incentives are driving export growth, market access, and investment opportunities, especially in non-oil sectors.
Export Growth and Trade Diplomacy
Turkey targets over $410 billion in exports for 2026, with record growth in goods and services. The government emphasizes trade diplomacy, especially with the EU, and aims to increase its share in global trade beyond 1.07%, supporting manufacturing and supply chain resilience.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Persist
Supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a concern, especially in sectors reliant on semiconductors and critical materials. Geopolitical tensions, particularly US-China and EU-US, continue to threaten the stability and resilience of German and European supply chains.
Strategic Reset With China
Canada and China have entered a new era of economic partnership, marked by reduced tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, and expanded cooperation in energy, finance, and agriculture. This recalibration aims to diversify Canada’s trade and investment flows, reducing overdependence on the US market.
Labor Market and Social Model Reforms Debate
Political debate is intensifying over labor market and welfare reforms, including proposals to end the 35-hour workweek and tighten unemployment benefits. Such reforms could reshape labor costs, productivity, and the attractiveness of France for foreign investors, but also risk social unrest.
Resilient but Uneven Economic Outlook
Despite global headwinds, the US demonstrates economic resilience, with steady consumer spending and moderate inflation. However, growth is uneven across sectors, and persistent trade barriers and policy shifts continue to challenge international business operations.