Shipping profitability amid freight slump

Korea’s flagship carrier HMM stayed profitable (13.4% operating margin) despite a 37% SCFI drop and route rate falls near 49% to the U.S. and Europe. Vessel oversupply and Red Sea security remain swing factors for lead times, surcharges, and contract rates.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Enerji arzı çeşitlenmesi ve LNG

Türkiye’nin LNG alımları artıyor; uzun vadeli kontratlar ve FSRU kapasitesi genişlemesi gündemde. Bu, enerji yoğun sektörlerde maliyet öngörülebilirliğini artırabilir; ancak gaz fiyatlarına ve jeopolitik risklere duyarlılık sürer. Sanayi yatırımlarında enerji tedarik sözleşmeleri kritikleşiyor.

Maquila/IMMEX bajo presión competitiva

El sector maquilador enfrenta menor competitividad y proyectos en pausa por la revisión del T‑MEC. Se reportan 672 programas IMMEX cancelados y casi 600.000 empleos perdidos; aranceles a insumos asiáticos (25–50%) y certificaciones lentas dificultan sustitución de importaciones.

Defense export surge and offsets

Korean shipbuilders and defense firms are competing for mega-deals (e.g., Canada’s submarine program, Saudi R&D cooperation). Large offsets and local-production demands can redirect capacity, tighten specialized supply chains, and create opportunities for foreign partners in co-production and sustainment.

Réglementation agricole et contestation

Mobilisations contre la loi Duplomb et débats sur la réintroduction de pesticides (acéthamipride). Impacts: incertitude sur intrants, normes ESG et traçabilité, risques réputationnels, volatilité des coûts agroalimentaires et tensions sur accords commerciaux (ex. Mercosur).

Monetary easing amid sticky services

UK inflation fell to 3.0% in January while services inflation stayed elevated near 4.4%, keeping the Bank of England divided on timing of rate cuts. Shifting borrowing costs will affect sterling, financing, consumer demand, and capex planning.

Fiscal rules and policy volatility

Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces criticism that the UK’s fiscal framework over-emphasizes narrow “headroom,” risking frequent policy tweaks as forecasts move. For investors, this elevates uncertainty around taxes, public spending, infrastructure commitments, and overall macro credibility.

Сжатие азиатского спроса на нефть

Риски сокращения импорта Индией и санкционное давление увеличивают скидки на российскую нефть: дисконты ESPO к Brent около $9/барр., Urals — ~$12, а поставки в Индию падали до ~1,3 млн барр./сут. Россия сильнее зависит от Китая.

Cargo theft and logistics security

Cargo theft remains a material operating risk despite reported declines: industry estimates put 2025 losses above MXN 7 billion, with hotspots in Estado de México and Puebla and key routes like México–Querétaro. High jammer use raises insurance, tracking, and routing costs.

Digital regulation and data liability

Korea is tightening rules affecting global tech firms: platform “fairness” initiatives, network-usage fee disputes, mapping-data controls, and tougher Personal Information Protection Act amendments that shift breach liability onto companies. Multinationals face higher compliance, litigation, and operational-risk exposure.

Stricter sanctions enforcement on logistics

France’s detention and multi‑million‑euro fine of a Russia-linked ‘shadow fleet’ tanker signals tougher, physical sanctions enforcement. Energy traders, shipping, insurers, and ports must upgrade due diligence, document trails, and counterparty screening to avoid delays, seizures, and penalties.

China tech export controls

Washington is tightening AI and semiconductor export controls to China via detailed licensing and end-use monitoring. Recent enforcement included a $252 million settlement over 56 unlicensed shipments to SMIC, raising compliance costs, shipment delays, and diversion risks across electronics supply chains.

Mining policy and investment climate

Mining remains central to exports but investment is constrained by regulatory uncertainty, permitting bottlenecks, and shifting BEE expectations. South Africa’s policy perception ranking is weak (70/82). Reforms that improve licensing certainty would unlock capital for critical minerals and export growth.

Critical minerals reshoring push

Australia is leveraging tax credits, strategic reserves and partner deals to build ex‑China supply chains in lithium and antimony. Closures like Kemerton show cost gaps versus China, shaping investment incentives, offtake contracts, and processing-location decisions.

Energy Import Dependence and Transition

Energy prices remain a key macro risk; IMF flags shocks like higher energy costs as inflation-extending. At the same time, expanding renewables and nuclear projects reshape industrial power pricing and grid investment. Energy-intensive manufacturers should plan for tariff volatility and decarbonization requirements.

Regulatory enforcement and raids risk

China’s security-focused regulatory climate—anti-espionage, state-secrets, and data-related enforcement—raises due-diligence and operational risk for foreign firms. Expect tighter controls on information flows, heightened scrutiny of consulting, and increased need for localized compliance and document governance.

Choques comerciais no agronegócio

Novas medidas de China e México sobre carne bovina alteram fluxo: a China impõe cota de 1,1 milhão t a 12% e excedente com sobretaxa de 55% (até 67% efetivo); México taxa acima de 70 mil t. Exige diversificação de destinos e ajustes na cadeia.

Foreign-backed infrastructure dealmaking

Mota-Engil is in advanced talks to assume Bahia’s Fiol rail, Porto Sul port, and Caetité mine in a ~R$15bn package, reportedly financed via China-linked capital. This signals renewed concession momentum, but adds geopolitically sensitive financing, governance, and execution considerations.

Data protection and digital trade pressure

DPDP Act implementation and India–US digital trade commitments may reshape cross-border data transfers, localization expectations, and platform regulation. Multinationals should prepare governance, consent management, breach response, and contract updates amid evolving rules and enforcement.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

Investment screening and national security

U.S. inbound (CFIUS) and outbound investment scrutiny is increasingly tied to economic security, especially for China-linked capital, data, and dual-use tech. Deal timelines, mitigation terms, and ownership structures are becoming decisive for cross-border M&A, JV approvals, and financing certainty.

BRICS e pagamentos em moedas locais

Brasil e Rússia defendem maior uso de moedas nacionais e instrumentos de pagamento no âmbito BRICS, criticando sanções unilaterais. Se avançar, pode reduzir custos de liquidação e risco de dólar em alguns corredores, mas aumenta complexidade de compliance e risco geopolítico.

LNG export surge and permitting

DOE/FERC are accelerating LNG export permitting and returning applications to “regular order,” driving new capacity filings (e.g., Corpus Christi expansion) and long-term 15–20 year contracts. Benefits include energy supply diversification; risks include oversupply and price volatility by 2030.

Internal unrest and operational disruption

January 2026 protests and a severe crackdown—reported 6,506 deaths and extended internet shutdowns—underscore heightened domestic instability. For business, the risk is workforce disruption, sudden regulatory/security restrictions, communications outages, and reputational exposure for partners operating locally or sourcing from Iran.

Ports competitiveness and political scrutiny

French ports face competitive pressure versus Northern European hubs, drawing heightened political attention ahead of elections. Potential reforms and labour relations risks can affect routing choices, lead times, and logistics costs for importers/exporters using Le Havre–Marseille corridors.

Падение нефтегазовых доходов

Доходы бюджета от нефти и газа снижаются: в январе 2026 — 393 млрд руб. против 587 млрд в декабре и 1,12 трлн годом ранее; в 2025 падение на 24% до 8,5 трлн руб. Это усиливает налоговое давление и бюджетные риски.

Private capital de-risking infrastructure

Budget 2026 proposes an Infrastructure Risk Guarantee Fund and municipal bond incentives to mobilize private debt/equity for projects. If operationalized, it can improve bankability and speed financial close, influencing PPP pipelines, construction supply chains, and REIT monetization.

Climate law and carbon pricing momentum

Thailand is advancing a first comprehensive Climate Change Act, with carbon-pricing and emissions-trading elements discussed in public reporting. Exporters to the EU and other low-carbon markets will face rising MRV and product-footprint demands, influencing supplier selection and capex.

Electricity reform and grid build

Ramaphosa reaffirmed Eskom unbundling and a fully independent transmission entity, unlocking private capital for transmission expansion. The grid plan targets ~R400bn/10 years (14,400km lines, 271 transformers). Execution and tariff design will determine reliability and investor confidence.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s export controls and temporary suspensions on metals such as gallium, germanium and antimony highlight near‑monopoly positions (around 99% of primary gallium). Multinationals face procurement shocks, price spikes, and stronger incentives to dual‑source, redesign products, and localize processing.

Digital economy and data centres

Ho Chi Minh City is catalysing tech infrastructure: announced frameworks include up to US$1bn commitments for hyperscale AI/cloud data centres and a digital-asset fund. Gains include better digital services and compute capacity, but execution depends on power reliability, approvals and data-governance rules.

EU Trade-Defense and EV Tariffs

EU trade defenses are tightening, but with flexibility: Volkswagen’s China-built Cupra Tavascan received a tariff exemption via minimum import price and quota, avoiding a 20.7% duty. Firms must plan for contingent duties, undertakings, and potential retaliation affecting cross-border EV supply chains.

Post-election policy continuity risk

Bhumjaithai’s landslide win improved near-term sentiment, but coalition bargaining and potential reshuffles raise execution risk. Businesses should expect regulatory and budget-timing uncertainty (FY2027 disbursement delays), and prioritize scenario planning for permits, procurement, and public-project pipelines.

Tech resilience amid talent outflow

Israel’s tech sector remains pivotal (around 60% of exports) but faces brain-drain concerns, with reports of ~90,000 departures since 2023. Continued VC activity and large exits support liquidity, yet hiring constraints and reputational risk can affect scaling and site-location decisions.

New trade deals and friend-shoring

US is using reciprocal trade agreements to rewire supply chains toward strategic partners. The US–Taiwan deal caps many tariffs at 15%, links chip treatment to US investment, and includes large procurement and investment pledges, influencing regional manufacturing footprints and sourcing decisions.