Mission Grey Daily Brief - September 07, 2025
Executive Summary
The past 24 hours have seen a wave of geopolitical and economic ripples with global implications—many set in motion by the accelerating trade and currency realignments following the latest US tariffs, intensifying multipolarity in the world order. The most significant developments are the emergent unity and resilience within the BRICS+ alliance in defiance of new US tariffs, a hardening Russia-China-India economic axis, and increased regionalization of currency and trade. India and China, long wary rivals, are showing signs of a strategic thaw under external pressure, while Mexico is capitalizing on the shift in global supply chains. Simultaneously, the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency faces mounting—though gradual—challenges from dedollarization efforts and alternative payment systems, even as the practical hurdles and internal BRICS divisions ensure the greenback’s dominance for now. These shifts are reshaping investment, energy, and supply chain strategies for international businesses and investors alike.
Analysis
1. Trump Tariffs Backfire: BRICS+ Unites in Multipolar Defiance
The headline event of the week—the US escalation of tariffs, particularly a 50% levy on India over its Russian oil trade, and similar measures against China, Brazil, and South Africa—was intended to isolate those economies and pressure Russia via its partners. Instead, these punitive moves are accelerating exactly what Washington hoped to prevent: a strengthening and realignment of BRICS+ nations, now openly seeking alternatives to the dollar, deepening trade and financial ties, and responding to pressure with new diplomatic platforms for collaboration. Narratives from India and China confirm that US “maximum pressure” diplomacy is driving Asia’s giants together, overcoming historical grievances to present a unified economic front ([1][2]).
At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, Indian Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping stood alongside Vladimir Putin, signaling the emergence of a “multipolar” world in which the G7 is no longer the sole forum for global agenda-setting. Recent agreements between China and India on direct flights, trade facilitation, and reduced border tensions provide real substance to the new axis beyond diplomatic spectacle ([1][3]). Trade within the core BRICS nations expanded by more than 30% in 2025, despite—or perhaps because of—US pressure.
This axis is finding resonance well beyond Asia. Leaders of Global South nations are increasingly signaling opposition to Western domination, not only through economic and security alignments such as BRICS and the SCO, but also via independent resource and currency policies. The shift is not yet a monolithic bloc, but the pace of practical coordination is unmistakable, from energy and rare earths to parallel payment systems and local currency settlements ([4][5]).
2. Currency Fragmentation and the Drive for De-Dollarization
The BRICS currency project, while not yet materializing as a single currency, is gaining strategic coherence. The group is now actively promoting local currency settlements, the BRICS Pay and CIPS payment networks, and even basket-backed “synthetic” units of account loosely inspired by the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights ([6][5]). India's rupee and China's renminbi are both rising in stature for cross-border deals, though capital controls, convertibility issues, and political divisions still hinder global acceptance or immediate dethronement of the dollar.
The dollar remains the world’s de facto reserve currency—anchoring 58% of reserves and 88% of SWIFT transactions ([4]). However, the mechanics of reserve management are evolving: Russia and China are increasing gold reserves, and the share of US dollar assets in official reserves has dropped steadily. In 2023, about 20% of Russia’s trade was settled in non-dollar currencies, and this figure is climbing ([4][5]). De-dollarization is being used tactically as a bulwark against future US sanctions and tariff weaponization, and is likely to gain further traction if US monetary or geopolitical policy continues along its current course.
What’s striking is the parallel development of alternative financial infrastructure—BRICS Pay, CIPS, the New Development Bank, and experimentations in partial gold-backing, especially for commodity trade ([4][6]). While none rivals the Western system yet, the real risk for businesses is increasing fragmentation and compliance complexity in global trade, plus rising transaction/hedging costs as multipolar currency blocs take shape.
3. The India-China-Russia Economic Axis and a Resilient Global South
The US campaign against Indian energy imports from Russia—using tariffs and secondary sanctions—has backfired spectacularly from a US policy perspective. India remains the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude (importing 1.6 million barrels per day in August, 37% of its total crude imports, up from 33% in July) and is explicitly prioritizing its own economic interests. Indian officials have also defended their growing re-export of refined fuels to Europe and the US, painting US policies as unfair and “profiteering” narratives as double standards ([7][8][9]).
The trilateral economic thaw is highlighted by India’s diversification of export markets, increased intra-BRICS trade (up 28% in 2025), and strategic realignment with China. A recent Beijing summit saw Modi and Xi project a new phase of pragmatic, if cautious, cooperation. For now, tensions linger—particularly over border disputes and competition for “Global South” leadership—but India’s adaptable posture and the region’s prioritization of economic autonomy diminish the risk of outright fissure ([2][1][3]).
4. Nearshoring and Mexico’s Rising Star
Amid global realignments, Mexico is benefiting handsomely from US-China decoupling and tariff wars. The Mexican stock market hit a new historic record above 60,000 points, up over 20% this year, driven by robust foreign capital flows, nearshoring investment, and resilient consumption sectors ([10]). The country’s nearshoring boom is being reinforced by strategic national efforts such as the CCE campaign to position itself as a global investment destination, aiming to double FDI inflows to $70 billion in the coming decade ([11]).
Industrial real estate investments—projected at $4 billion for 2025—demonstrate persistent business confidence, despite lingering legal, transparency, and security challenges ([12]). Mexico’s government and private sector are coordinating to leverage labor, trade access, and demographic advantages. At the same time, Mexico’s industrial and infrastructure ties with Brazil signal that the Latin American giants are seeking deeper alternatives to trade frameworks dominated by the US and China, further reinforcing the global trend toward regional blocks ([13]).
Conclusions
The world’s economic and geopolitical landscape is fragmenting with remarkable speed, driven by unpredictable US trade moves, China’s diplomatic maneuvers, and the collective agency of major emerging economies. US tariffs and secondary sanctions are not weakening the BRICS+ group but accelerating its drive for independence, currency innovation, and new financial infrastructure. India, China, and Russia are finding pragmatic ways to bury old rivalries—at least for now—in pursuit of autonomy and resilience. Alternative payment networks, gold accumulation, and cross-border currency deals may not dethrone the dollar this year, but they will raise transaction complexity and long-term political risk for international businesses.
Mexico’s ongoing investment surge, with its unique access to both Americas and robust nearshoring prospects, stands out as a case study of how policy shifts can create winners even amid global instability. Meanwhile, the “Global South” and regional frameworks continue to gain influence, challenging the complacency of historically dominant powers and offering businesses alternative routes for investment, supply chains, and partnerships.
As you reflect on today’s brief, consider:
- How might the steady carving of alternative payment and trade networks reshape your risk calculus for global operations?
- Are you, as investors and business leaders, prepared for a world where political shocks drive supply chain and financial fragmentation to the local or regional level?
- And crucially, how can you use your own agility and values-based strategy to thrive in an era where alignment with democratic, transparent, and predictable business environments is both a competitive differentiator and a shield against the rising tide of transactional diplomacy?
Mission Grey Advisor AI will continue to track these seismic shifts and support your business in navigating a world of multiplying risks—and opportunities.
Further Reading:
Themes around the World:
Defense buildup, industrial mobilisation
Japan’s rapid defense expansion toward 2% of GDP is driving procurement, re-shoring of sensitive manufacturing, and looser defense-export rules. This increases opportunities in aerospace, cyber, shipbuilding and munitions supply chains, but raises compliance, security vetting and capacity-allocation pressures.
Black Sea corridor security costs
Ukraine’s Odesa-area maritime corridor remains open but under intensified port and vessel attacks, mines, and GNSS spoofing. Volumes are volatile (corridor exports reportedly fell ~45% YoY in April 2025), while war-risk insurance and contractual disruption risk shape freight pricing and trade reliability.
Immigration tightening constrains labor
Reduced immigration and restrictive policies are linked to slower hiring and workforce shortages, affecting logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Analyses project legal immigration could fall 33–50% (1.5–2.4 million fewer entrants over four years), raising labor costs and operational risk.
Maritime regulation and Jones Act rigidity
Court affirmation and continued political support for the Jones Act sustain high domestic coastal shipping costs and limited capacity for inter-U.S. moves. Energy, agriculture, and construction inputs may face higher delivered costs, affecting project economics and intra-U.S. supply-chain design.
Consolidation and cross-border M&A wave
A growing pipeline of regional-bank mergers and portfolio shrinkage is reshaping local banking competition. Consolidation can reduce relationship lending, alter treasury-service pricing, and force corporates to re-paper facilities—creating execution risk for acquisitions, capex projects, and vendor financing.
Labor law rewrite by 2026
Parliament plans to finalize a new labor law before October 2026 to comply with Constitutional Court directions and adjust the Omnibus Law framework. Revisions could change hiring, severance, and compliance burdens—material for labor-intensive investors, sourcing decisions, and HR risk.
Data (Use and Access) Act
Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.
Semiconductor geopolitics and reshoring
TSMC’s expanded US investment deepens supply-chain bifurcation as Washington tightens technology controls and seeks onshore capacity. Companies must manage dual compliance regimes, IP protection, export licensing, and supplier localization decisions across US, Taiwan, and China markets.
Maritime services ban risk
Brussels is moving from the G7 price cap toward a full ban on EU shipping, insurance and other maritime services for Russian crude at any price. With EU-owned tankers still carrying ~35% of Russia’s oil, logistics and freight availability may shift abruptly.
Data protection enforcement and cyber risk
CNIL’s €5m fine over the France Travail breach (36.8m affected) highlights tougher enforcement expectations. Companies face increased scrutiny on IAM, MFA, vendor access, and breach response, impacting cloud architecture, outsourcing models, and regulatory exposure.
Post-election policy continuity risks
Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.
Dunkirk “Battery Valley” logistics advantage
Northern France is consolidating a “Battery Valley” around Dunkirk/Bourbourg with port and multimodal links, plus grid access near Gravelines nuclear plant. This can lower inbound materials and outbound cell transport costs, influencing site selection and supply-chain routing.
Regional war and security risk
Gaza conflict and spillovers (Lebanon, Iran proxies) keep Israel’s risk premium elevated, raising insurance, freight, and business-continuity costs. Mobilization and security alerts disrupt staffing and site access, while renewed escalation could rapidly impair ports, aviation, and cross-border trade.
Mining push and critical minerals
Saudi is positioning mining as a “third pillar,” citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment frameworks emphasizing transparency and ESG. Opportunities rise in exploration, processing and fertilizer/aluminum chains, while permitting, water use, and ESG scrutiny remain key risks.
Trade rerouting and logistics costs
With port disruptions, exporters increasingly divert cargo by rail and road through EU borders, raising transit time, capacity constraints and costs. Agriculture remains the largest export driver (commodities US$41.7bn in 2024), so volatility in corridors affects global buyers’ sourcing strategies and contract performance.
Infrastructure theft and vandalism
Cable theft, derailments and vandalism continue to disrupt rail and municipal services, increasing insurance, security and downtime. Rail upgrades are estimated at ~R14bn annually (some estimates ~R200bn overall). Persistent crime risk could deter private participation and capex.
Foreign investment scrutiny intensifies
Heightened national-security screening of capital flows—via CFIUS and Defense “FOCI” mitigation reviews—raises execution risk for cross-border M&A and minority stakes, especially in aerospace, AI, space, and dual-use sectors, potentially altering valuation, governance terms, and closing timelines.
USMCA renegotiation and North America risk
Rising tariff threats toward Canada and tighter USMCA compliance debates are increasing uncertainty for autos, agriculture, and cross-border manufacturing. Firms should map rules-of-origin exposure, diversify routing, and prepare for disruptive bargaining ahead of formal review timelines.
Critical minerals alliance reshaping
Canberra’s A$1.2bn Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (initially gallium, antimony, rare earths) and deeper US-led cooperation (price floors, offtakes) are accelerating non‑China supply chains, creating investment openings but higher compliance, geopolitical and pricing-policy risk for manufacturers.
Housing constraints and construction bottlenecks
Housing supply remains below the ~240,000 annual starts needed for the 1.2m homes target, with commencements around ~184,460 in the year to Sep-2025. Planning delays, workforce shortages, and compliance costs slow projects, impacting labour availability, facility location decisions and operating costs in major cities.
Critical minerals export controls
China’s expanding controls on dual-use goods and critical minerals (rare earths, gallium) and licensing slowdowns—seen in Japan-related restrictions and buyers diversifying to Kazakhstan—create acute input risk for semiconductors, EVs, aerospace, and defense-linked manufacturing worldwide.
Digital-government buildout and procurement
Government is accelerating cloud/AI adoption and “digital cleanup,” with digital-government development budget cited near 10bn baht for FY2027 and agencies targeting much higher IT spend. Opportunities rise for cloud, cybersecurity, and integration vendors, alongside procurement and interoperability risks.
Central bank independence concerns, rupiah
Parliament confirmed President Prabowo’s nephew to Bank Indonesia’s board after rupiah hit a record low near 16,985/USD. Perceived politicization can raise risk premia, FX hedging costs, and volatility for importers, exporters, and foreign investors pricing IDR exposure and local debt.
Critical minerals and industrial policy
Canada’s critical-minerals endowment supports batteries, defense, and clean-tech, but policy is tightening on national-security and foreign-investment scrutiny. Expect more conditions on acquisitions, offtakes, and subsidies; firms should structure deals for reviews, Indigenous engagement, and traceability.
Shadow fleet interdictions rising
Western navies are shifting from monitoring to physical interdiction: boardings, detentions and possible seizures of ‘stateless’ or falsely flagged tankers are increasing. Russia is reflagging vessels; ~640 ships are sanctioned. Shipping, port, and insurance risk premiums are rising materially.
Expanded Sanctions and Secondary Measures
Congress and the administration are widening sanctions tools, including efforts to target Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ and a proposed 25% tariff penalty on countries trading with Iran. This raises counterparty, shipping, and insurance risk and increases compliance costs across global trade corridors.
Ports labor negotiations and logistics fragility
Ongoing labor-contract uncertainty at key U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports heightens strike and congestion tail risks. Importers should diversify gateways, build inventory buffers, and stress-test inland transport capacity to avoid repeat disruptions and demurrage spikes.
Carbon border and ETS policy shifts
Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.
Energy planning and power constraints
Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support 10%+ growth targets, projecting 120–130 million toe demand by 2030 and rapid renewables expansion. Businesses face execution risk in grids, LNG logistics, and permitting; power reliability remains a key site-selection factor.
Energy grid attacks and rationing
Sustained Russian strikes on 750kV/330kV substations and plants are “islanding” the grid, driving nationwide outages and forcing nuclear units to reduce output. Power deficits disrupt factories, ports, and rail operations, raise operating costs, and delay investment timelines.
Mobilization-driven labour and HR risk
Ongoing mobilization and enforcement practices tighten labour supply and raise HR compliance and reputational risks for employers. Firms face higher wage pressure, absenteeism, and operational continuity challenges, while needing robust documentation for exemptions/critical-worker status and strengthened duty-of-care in high-stress environments.
Monetary tightening and demand pressures
The RBA lifted the cash rate 25bp to 3.85% as inflation re-accelerated (headline ~3.8% y/y; core ~3.3–3.4%) and labour markets stayed tight (~4.1% unemployment). Higher funding costs and a stronger AUD affect capex timing, valuations, and import/export competitiveness.
Energy exports and LNG geopolitics
US LNG is central to allies’ energy security, but export policy and domestic political pressure can affect approvals, pricing, and availability. For industry, this shapes energy-intensive manufacturing siting, long-term contracts, and Europe-Asia competition for cargoes, with knock-on logistics and hedging needs.
Korea semiconductor industrial policy reboot
A new Special Act creates a presidential commission, dedicated funding and cluster support to strengthen the entire chip supply chain. Regulatory streamlining and regional incentives can attract foreign suppliers, but unresolved labor flexibility debates may constrain rapid R&D and ramp-ups.
Outbound investment screening expansion
U.S. controls on outbound capital and know-how—particularly toward China-linked advanced tech—are widening. Multinationals must map covered transactions, restructure joint ventures, and adjust funding routes to avoid penalties, potentially slowing cross-border R&D, venture investment, and supply-chain partnerships in dual-use sectors.
Weather shocks and Jones Act constraints
Severe freezes can disrupt US oil and gas output (estimates up to 25 Bcf/day), forcing LNG imports despite exporter status; Jones Act limits domestic LNG shipping. International buyers and US-linked supply chains should expect episodic price spikes and logistics bottlenecks.