Inflation and lira instability

Turkey’s inflation hit 32.4% in April while the central bank effectively tightened funding to 40% and spent reserves defending the lira. Currency volatility, pricing uncertainty and imported-cost pressures are complicating contracts, margins, hedging and capital allocation decisions.

USMCA Review and Tariff Uncertainty

Mexico’s top business risk is the prolonged USMCA review, with Washington signaling tariffs will remain and rules of origin will tighten. The pact underpins roughly US$2.5 billion in daily border trade, shaping automotive, metals, agriculture, and cross-border investment decisions.

Shadow Fleet Sustains Oil Exports

Despite tighter enforcement, Iran continues using ship-to-ship transfers, dark-fleet tankers, AIS manipulation and relabelling to move crude toward Asian buyers, especially China. This keeps legal, insurance, ESG and maritime safety risks elevated for refiners, traders, ports, and service providers.

Moderate Growth, Selective Opportunities

Consensus forecasts put Brazil’s GDP growth near 1.85% in 2026 and 1.76% in 2027, signaling a slower expansion backdrop. Businesses should expect uneven domestic demand, tighter capital allocation, and stronger returns only in export-linked, infrastructure, and regulated sectors with structural tailwinds.

US Tariffs Reshape Trade

US tariff pressure is materially altering South Korea’s export geography and pricing. Korea’s tariff burden on US exports rose from 0.2% in January 2025 to 8% by March 2026, pushing firms to diversify markets and reconfigure sourcing, manufacturing, and tariff-mitigation strategies.

UK-EU Food Trade Easing

A planned UK-EU agreement from summer 2027 would remove many physical checks and certificates on meat, dairy, fish, eggs and other foods. The government says the new regime could add £5.1 billion annually, improving agri-food trade, costs and supply predictability.

Black Sea Export Routes Evolve

Port infrastructure remains vulnerable, yet maritime trade corridors continue to be strategically important for grain and other exports. Recurrent strikes on Odesa-region port assets and cargo vehicles keep freight costs, insurance premia, and scheduling risks elevated for exporters and shippers.

Migration Reforms Target Skill Gaps

The government will keep permanent migration at 185,000 places, with more than 70% for skilled entrants, while spending A$85.2 million on faster trade-skills recognition. Businesses should benefit from quicker labor access, though lower net migration may still tighten workforce availability.

Balochistan Security Deterioration

Escalating militant violence in Balochistan is undermining transport safety, investor confidence and project execution. Lawmakers describe conditions as approaching civil conflict, with attacks on highways, police stations and officials increasing risks for logistics corridors, mining ventures and western-route connectivity.

Power Tariffs and Circular Debt

Energy-sector stress remains acute as circular debt sits near Rs1.8 trillion, Chinese IPPs are owed over Rs560 billion and subsidy reforms continue. Businesses face risks of higher electricity tariffs, payment disputes, and unreliable power economics that erode manufacturing competitiveness.

Banking Stress and Payment Delays

Rising toxic assets, debt restructuring, and worsening corporate payment delays point to growing fragility in Russia’s financial system. State banks are masking stress, but deteriorating liquidity and inter-firm arrears increase counterparty risk, settlement uncertainty, and the probability of broader commercial disruption.

Yen Volatility and BOJ Tightening

Japan’s weak yen near 160 per dollar and possible BOJ rate hikes from 0.75% toward 1.0% are reshaping import costs, financing conditions and hedging needs. Tokyo reportedly spent nearly ¥10 trillion supporting the currency, raising volatility for trade and investment planning.

Municipal Infrastructure Breakdown Risks

Failing municipal water, electricity and sanitation systems are increasingly disrupting operations in major commercial hubs. Johannesburg reports a backlog above R220 billion and water losses of 44.7%, while wider outages, tanker dependence and poor maintenance raise operating, health and compliance risks.

CPEC 2.0 Investment Push

Pakistan and China have agreed to advance CPEC 2.0, expand Gwadar’s role, realign the Karakoram Highway and invite third-party participation. The push may create openings in logistics, energy, mining and manufacturing, but execution still depends on security and payment reliability.

War-Risk Finance Still Scarce

Ukraine’s investment case is constrained by limited affordable war-risk coverage, despite new EBRD-backed debt relief pilots for war-damaged assets. Financing remains expensive and selective, slowing capex decisions, reconstruction participation and insurance-dependent investment strategies for manufacturers, lenders and infrastructure operators.

Rare Earth Export Leverage

China retains powerful leverage through rare earths, controlling about 85% of processing and over 90% of magnet production. Licensing restrictions have disrupted automotive, aerospace and electronics supply chains, keeping manufacturers exposed to sudden export tightening and cost spikes.

B50 Biodiesel Reshapes Palm Trade

Indonesia plans to raise its palm biodiesel mandate to B50 from July 1, increasing domestic CPO absorption by roughly 16 million tons annually. That could tighten export availability, raise edible-oil prices, and alter procurement strategies for food, chemicals, and biofuel-linked businesses.

Foreign Investment Screening Expands

CFIUS scrutiny remains a significant factor in cross-border M&A, technology partnerships, and strategic infrastructure investment into the United States. Even where approvals are granted, longer review timelines and national-security conditions increase execution risk, transaction costs, and uncertainty for international investors.

West Coast Pipeline Push

Ottawa and Alberta have advanced a framework for a new West Coast oil pipeline, with national-interest designation possible by October 2026 and construction as early as 2027. If realized, it would diversify export markets, reduce U.S. dependence, and reshape energy logistics.

India Trade and Investment Deepening

Canberra is accelerating economic engagement with India through CECA negotiations, stronger energy trade, uranium cooperation and critical-minerals collaboration, creating diversification opportunities for exporters, logistics providers and investors seeking reduced concentration risk from slower or more volatile traditional markets.

Growth outlook remains constrained

Despite stronger oil income and resilient markets, broader growth is under pressure from conflict and uncertainty. The IMF cut Saudi Arabia’s 2026 growth forecast by 0.9 percentage points to 3.1%, signaling softer demand conditions for real estate, tourism, aviation, and discretionary corporate investment.

Border Trade Route Volatility

Thailand’s trade with neighboring countries is weakening even as transit trade to third countries surges. March border trade with neighbors fell 21.6%, while third-country border trade rose 41.4%, reflecting shifting routes, electronics flows and heightened logistics planning requirements for cross-border operators.

Export Proceeds Repatriation Tightening

Revised rules on natural-resource export proceeds take effect from June, steering foreign-exchange earnings into state banks to improve oversight and reserves. For companies, this may constrain treasury flexibility, alter cash-management structures and increase reporting obligations around cross-border transactions.

Large-Scale Infrastructure Investment Drive

Pretoria has announced a three-year R1 trillion infrastructure push across energy, water, logistics and IT to attract investment and create jobs. If implemented effectively, it could improve market access and industrial capacity, though execution risk remains high given corruption and institutional weakness.

Revisión T-MEC y reglas

La revisión del T-MEC domina el panorama comercial: Washington busca reglas de origen más estrictas, mayor contenido norteamericano y más trazabilidad para limitar insumos asiáticos. Esto afectará automotriz, electrónica, costos de cumplimiento, estrategias de abastecimiento y decisiones de inversión.

Regional Security Risks Remain Elevated

Saudi officials are stressing maritime security in both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab as central to global trade stability. Businesses operating through the kingdom should expect persistent geopolitical risk, freight volatility, and stronger emphasis on supply-chain redundancy, physical security, and crisis readiness.

US Tariffs Redirect Trade

Higher US tariff barriers have sharply reduced Korea’s preferential access, lifting its effective tariff burden from 0.2% to 8% by March 2026. Export flows are pivoting toward China, forcing firms to reassess market prioritization, pricing, and regional trade diversification.

Foreign Exchange and Capital

External financing conditions have tightened again. Net foreign assets fell by $6.07 billion in March to $21.34 billion, while portfolio outflows and pound weakness have resurfaced, complicating profit repatriation, import planning, hedging strategies and hard-currency liquidity for multinationals.

AI Data Center Investment Boom

Thailand approved 958 billion baht, about $29 billion, in major projects, with roughly $27 billion concentrated in data centers. The surge strengthens Thailand’s digital infrastructure appeal, but raises execution risks around grid capacity, permitting, clean power access, and geopolitics.

Energy Sector Investment Rebounds

Egypt reduced arrears to foreign energy partners from $6.1 billion to $440 million, with full settlement targeted by end-June. That improves investor confidence, supports exploration, and may accelerate upstream, mining, and linked industrial projects with international partners.

Tourism Rules Tighten Amid Slump

Thailand is cutting visa-free stays from 60 to 30 days for travellers from 93 countries as arrivals weaken. Foreign tourist numbers reached 12.4 million through May 10, down 3.43% year on year, affecting hospitality demand, aviation, retail, and labor planning in tourism-linked sectors.

Inseguridad logística en corredores

El auge exportador ha elevado la exposición a robo de carga, retrasos fronterizos, problemas aduanales y daños a mercancías. Estos riesgos encarecen seguros, inventarios y cumplimiento contractual, especialmente en corredores hacia Estados Unidos y polos industriales del norte.

Energy Security and Price Exposure

Thailand remains vulnerable to imported energy shocks, with policymakers highlighting risks from Strait of Hormuz tensions and electricity-cost volatility. Rising fuel and power prices are already affecting manufacturing, tourism, and investment planning, increasing the case for renewables and efficiency upgrades.

China De-risking, Selective Reopening

India continues reducing strategic dependence on China while selectively easing FDI restrictions through Press Note 2. New beneficial-ownership thresholds could reopen non-controlling Chinese capital in manufacturing, infrastructure and technology, while preserving screening in sensitive sectors and supply chains.

Critical Minerals Supply Vulnerability

Rare earths and other critical minerals remain a central pressure point in US-China negotiations, with US officials calling Chinese fulfillment only ‘satisfactory, but not excellent.’ Manufacturers in electronics, autos, aerospace, and defense face procurement uncertainty, inventory risk, and pressure to diversify upstream supply chains.

Energy Hub and Transit Expansion

Turkey is deepening its role as an energy corridor through LNG, pipelines and regional interconnectors. LNG regasification capacity is set to rise from 161 to 200 million cubic meters daily, supporting industrial resilience, logistics continuity and energy-intensive manufacturing competitiveness.