Critical minerals bloc reshaping rules

The U.S. is pushing a preferential critical-minerals trade zone with price floors, reference pricing, and stockpiling (Project Vault), amid China’s dominant refining share. Canada is engaged but not always aligned, affecting mining investment, offtake deals, and EV/defence supply chains.

Talent constraints and mobility reforms

Persistent shortages in high-skill engineering and digital roles are pushing Taiwan to expand pathways for foreign professionals and longer-term residence. For multinationals, competition for talent will elevate wage pressure, retention costs, and the strategic value of training, automation, and global staffing models.

FX liquidity and import compression

Foreign-exchange availability and rupee volatility continue to shape import licensing, payment timelines, and working-capital needs. Even with gradual reserve improvements, firms face episodic restrictions and higher hedging costs, affecting machinery, chemicals, and intermediate inputs critical to export supply chains.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

Mandatory USMCA review by July 1 is becoming contentious; Washington is openly weighing withdrawal and has threatened extreme tariffs and sector levies. Heightened uncertainty disrupts pricing, contract terms, and cross-border auto, metals, agriculture, and services supply chains.

Massive Infrastructure Reconstruction Drive

Ukraine’s large-scale reconstruction, backed by EU and international finance, is creating significant business opportunities in transport, energy, and urban development. However, risks from ongoing conflict and corruption concerns complicate project execution and investment returns.

EU-China EV trade rebalancing

EU’s new ‘price undertaking’ mechanism is reshaping China-made EV flows: VW’s Cupra Tavascan won a tariff waiver by accepting minimum pricing, quotas and EU battery-investment commitments. This creates a template for others, altering sourcing, margins and trade friction.

Monetary tightening and demand pressures

The RBA lifted the cash rate 25bp to 3.85% as inflation re-accelerated (headline ~3.8% y/y; core ~3.3–3.4%) and labour markets stayed tight (~4.1% unemployment). Higher funding costs and a stronger AUD affect capex timing, valuations, and import/export competitiveness.

China-De-Risking und Rohstoffabhängigkeiten

Die EU bleibt durch chinesische Exportkontrollen bei Seltenen Erden verwundbar (ca. 60% Förderung, 90% Verarbeitung). Deutschlands Unternehmen müssen Beschaffung diversifizieren, Lager aufbauen und Substitution beschleunigen. Gleichzeitig wächst politischer Druck, Handelsrisiken mit Investitionszugang und Marktchancen auszubalancieren.

Cybersecurity enforcement and compliance

Regulators are escalating cyber-resilience expectations. A landmark ASIC case imposed A$2.5m penalties after a breach leaked ~385GB of client data affecting ~18,000 customers, signalling higher compliance burdens, greater board accountability, and heightened due diligence requirements for vendors handling sensitive data.

EV supply-chain localization rules

Proposed “100% US-made” requirements for federally funded EV chargers would effectively stall parts of the build-out, given reliance on imported power modules and electronics. This raises uncertainty for EV infrastructure investors, equipment suppliers, and downstream fleet electrification plans.

Critical minerals investment opportunities, risks

Ukraine is advancing licensing and production-sharing models for strategic minerals, including lithium projects with large capex (reported up to US$700m initial; longer-term >US$1.8bn). Potential upside is high for EU battery supply chains, but war-risk insurance, permitting integrity, and infrastructure security remain decisive.

Energy Transition and Supply Chain Realignment

Finland’s rapid shift away from Russian energy, combined with investments in renewables and thermal storage, is restructuring industrial supply chains. While this enhances energy security and sustainability, it also exposes businesses to volatility in energy prices and regulatory changes.

Consolidation budgétaire et fiscalité

Le budget 2026, adopté via 49.3, comporte des mesures fiscales contestées et sécurisées devant le Conseil constitutionnel. Effets: incertitude sur fiscalité du capital et transmissions, arbitrages d’investissement, pression sur dépenses publiques et commandes.

Nickel Policy Drives Global Supply Chains

Indonesia’s tightening of nickel ore production quotas and crackdown on illegal mining directly impacts 65% of global supply. These moves, aimed at boosting domestic processing, create volatility in battery and EV supply chains and influence global commodity prices.

Sanctions, export controls, compliance burden

Canada’s expanding sanctions and export-control alignment with allies increases screening requirements for dual-use items, shipping, finance and tech transfers. Multinationals need stronger KYC/UBO checks, third-country routing controls, and contract clauses to manage enforcement and sudden designations.

Energy security and LNG procurement

Taiwan’s import-dependent power system and plans to increase LNG purchases, including from the US, heighten focus on fuel-price volatility and shipping risk. Industrial users should expect continued sensitivity to outages, grid upgrades, and policy shifts affecting electricity costs.

Infrastructure push and budget timing

Major parties and business groups emphasize infrastructure—rail, airports, grids, water systems and data centers—as the main path to durable growth. However, government formation and budget disbursement timing can delay tenders, impacting EPC pipelines, industrial estate absorption, and logistics upgrades.

Semiconductor Industry Policy Overhaul

South Korea passed a landmark law to strengthen its semiconductor sector, establishing a presidential commission and special funding. The law aims to secure technological leadership in AI chips, centralize support, and incentivize regional development, directly impacting global tech supply chains and investment flows.

Black Sea corridor security costs

Ukraine’s Odesa-area maritime corridor remains open but under intensified port and vessel attacks, mines, and GNSS spoofing. Volumes are volatile (corridor exports reportedly fell ~45% YoY in April 2025), while war-risk insurance and contractual disruption risk shape freight pricing and trade reliability.

Outbound investment screening expands

New U.S. outbound investment restrictions for semiconductors, quantum, and advanced AI create approval or notification burdens for cross-border deals and R&D. Companies must reassess Asia tech exposure, ring-fence sensitive IP, and build deal timelines around regulatory review risk.

US-China Economic Competition Intensifies

US-China relations remain a dominant force in global economics, with ongoing tensions over technology, trade, and security. These dynamics influence market access, regulatory risk, and supply chain resilience for international businesses operating in or sourcing from both countries.

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.

Tightening China tech export controls

Export-control enforcement is intensifying, highlighted by a $252 million U.S. settlement over unlicensed shipments to SMIC after Entity List designation. Expect tighter licensing, more routing scrutiny via third countries, higher compliance costs, and greater China supply-chain fragmentation.

Transshipment and origin enforcement risk

Growing US scrutiny of origin fraud and transshipment is pushing Vietnam to tighten customs controls, creating higher audit, documentation, and supplier-traceability burdens for manufacturers. Sectors vulnerable to tariffs (e.g., solar components) face elevated trade-remedy exposure.

Industrial policy reshoring incentives

CHIPS/IRA-style subsidies, procurement preferences, and accelerated permitting are steering investment toward U.S. manufacturing, energy, and AI infrastructure. Multinationals must optimize site selection, local-content strategies, and subsidy compliance while anticipating partner-country countermeasures.

Trade–security linkage in nuclear submarines

Tariff friction is delaying alliance follow-on talks on nuclear-powered submarines, enrichment, and spent-fuel reprocessing. Because trade and security are being negotiated in parallel, businesses face headline risk around dual-use controls, licensing timelines, and defense-adjacent supply chains.

Black Sea Grain Exports Remain Volatile

Ukraine’s grain exports through the Black Sea are subject to ongoing security threats and corridor disruptions. The uncertainty around export agreements and maritime safety continues to affect global food prices and the reliability of agricultural supply chains.

Energy Transition Investment Challenges

Canada’s energy transition investment fell 8.8% to $33.4 billion, losing its top 10 global ranking. Policy uncertainty and declining EV spending threaten competitiveness. Integrated strategies for renewables, grids, and electrified transport are critical for future growth and investor confidence.

Fiscalización digital y aduanas

El SAT intensifica auditorías basadas en CFDI y cruces automatizados, priorizando “factureras”, subvaluación y comercio exterior. Se reporta enfoque en aduanas (27,1% de ingresos tributarios) y nuevas facultades/visitas rápidas, elevando riesgos de bloqueo operativo, devoluciones y multas.

Low inflation and financing conditions

L’inflation française a touché 0,4% en janvier (plus bas depuis 2020), favorisant une baisse du Livret A à 1,5%. Coût du capital potentiellement plus bas (crédit immobilier ~3,1%), mais consommation et prix de services modérés influencent prévisions de ventes et salaires.

Labor Market Aging and Reform Debates

The employment rate for Koreans aged 55-64 exceeded 70%, intensifying debates over raising the retirement age and reforming labor policies. These demographic shifts affect workforce availability, productivity, and long-term business planning, especially in manufacturing and services.

Climate hazards raising operating costs

Wildfires, flooding and extreme weather are driving higher insurance premiums, physical supply disruptions and workforce impacts across Canada. Asset-heavy sectors should reassess site selection, business continuity planning, and climate-resilience capex, including backup power and logistics redundancy.

Lira depreciation and inflation stickiness

January inflation ran 30.65% y/y (4.84% m/m) while the central bank cut the policy rate to 37%, pushing USD/TRY to record highs. Persistent price pressures and FX weakness raise import costs, complicate pricing, and increase hedging needs.

Climate shocks and heat stress

Flood reconstruction and increasingly severe heat waves reduce labour productivity, strain power systems and threaten agriculture-linked exports. Businesses face higher continuity costs, insurance constraints and site-selection trade-offs, with growing expectations for climate adaptation planning and resilient supply chains.

Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Volatility

Despite global trade tensions and capital flow volatility, India’s external sector remains stable, with record exports and a strong services surplus. The rupee’s orderly depreciation and robust FDI inflows reflect underlying macroeconomic resilience, supporting long-term business confidence.

AUKUS industrial expansion and controls

AUKUS submarine construction investment at Osborne is scaling defence manufacturing, workforce and secure supply chains. Businesses may see new contracts but also tighter export controls, security vetting, cyber requirements and supply assurance obligations across dual-use technologies and components.