Oil export revenues weakening sharply

January oil-and-gas tax receipts fell to 393bn rubles ($5.1bn) from 587bn in December and 1.12tr in Jan 2025. Wider Urals discounts and disrupted India flows compress margins, increasing fiscal pressure and policy unpredictability for businesses operating in Russia.

Trade rerouting to China

Russia’s export dependence is concentrating on China as India’s intake becomes uncertain and discounts widen (ESPO ~US$9/bbl, Urals ~US$12/bbl vs Brent). This increases buyer power, pricing volatility and settlement complexity, while complicating long-term offtake and investment planning.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Expanding U.S. secondary penalties

Washington is tightening enforcement on Iranian trade through new sanctions targeting oil/petrochemical networks and a 25% tariff threat on countries trading with Iran. This elevates compliance costs, raises counterparty risk, and may force rapid supplier requalification.

EU accession fast-track uncertainty

Brussels is debating “membership-lite/reverse enlargement” to bring Ukraine closer by 2027–2028, but unanimity (notably Hungary) and strict acquis alignment remain hurdles. The pathway implies rapid regulatory change across customs, competition, SPS, and rule-of-law safeguards—material for compliance planning.

China competition drives trade sensitivity

Rapid gains by Chinese EV brands across Europe heighten sensitivity around battery and component imports, pricing, and potential defensive measures. For France-based battery projects, this raises volatility in demand forecasts, OEM sourcing strategies, and exposure to EU trade actions.

Optics and photonics supply expansion

Nokia’s optical-network growth and new manufacturing investments support high-capacity connectivity crucial for cloud simulation and telepresence. This can reduce latency for cross-border services, yet photonics component bottlenecks and specialized materials sourcing remain supply-chain risks for integrators.

Tariff escalation and legal risk

U.S. tariff policy remains volatile, with high effective tariff rates and active litigation over emergency authorities. Companies face sudden duty changes, pricing pressure, and contract disputes, while investment timing hinges on court outcomes and negotiated exemptions across sectors.

Corredores logísticos e licenciamento

Concessões e projetos de hidrovias e portos ganham tração, mas enfrentam licenciamento ambiental e contestação social. A Hidrovia do Rio Paraguai mira leilão até 2026 e pode elevar cargas de 8,8 para 30 Mt, reduzindo fretes do agro.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

Post-war security risk premium

Ceasefire conditions remain fragile and multi-front escalation risk persists (Gaza governance transition, northern border tensions, Yemen/Houthi threats). The resulting security risk premium affects insurance, travel, site selection, and contingency planning for multinationals operating in Israel.

LNG permitting accelerates exports

A faster, “regular order” approach to LNG export permits and terminal approvals is boosting long-term contracting (often 15–20 years) with Europe and Asia, shaping global gas pricing, supporting US upstream investment, and offering buyers diversification from geopolitically riskier suppliers.

Skilled-visa tightening and backlogs

Stricter H-1B vetting, social-media screening, and severe interview backlogs—plus state-level restrictions like Texas pausing new petitions—constrain talent mobility. Impacts include project delays, higher labor costs, expanded nearshore/remote delivery, and relocation of R&D and services work outside the U.S.

Palm biodiesel mandate B40

Mandatori biodiesel berbasis sawit dipertahankan di B40 sepanjang 2026 (PP No.40/2025) dengan rencana transisi ke B50. Kapasitas terpasang 22 juta KL, alokasi 16,5 juta KL; 2025 realisasi ~96% target. Kebijakan ini mempengaruhi ketersediaan CPO untuk ekspor, harga domestik, dan ESG risiko deforestasi.

High energy costs and subsidies

Germany is spending roughly €30bn in 2026 to damp electricity prices, yet industry expects structurally higher power costs. Energy-intensive sectors cite competitiveness losses and relocation risk; firms should stress-test contracts, hedge exposure, and evaluate alternative EU production footprints.

China de-risking and coercion exposure

Sino-Japanese tensions tied to Taiwan rhetoric have brought slower customs clearance, tighter controls and rare-earth licensing uncertainty. Firms face compliance and continuity risks in China-linked supply chains, accelerating diversification, inventory buffering and regional relocation decisions.

Technology dependence and import substitution gaps

Despite ‘technological sovereignty’ ambitions, Russia remains reliant on imported high-tech inputs; estimates suggest China supplies about 90% of microchips, and key sector self-sufficiency targets lag. Supply chains face quality, substitution, and single-supplier risks, plus heightened export-control exposure.

India–US tariff reset framework

An interim India–US trade framework cuts many US duties on Indian goods to about 18% (from punitive levels), with contingent zero‑tariff carveouts later. In return, India may lower tariffs/NTBs for selected US goods, reshaping export pricing and compliance.

Import licensing and quota uncertainty

Businesses report delays and sharp quota cuts in import permits (e.g., frozen beef private quota cut from 180,000 to 30,000 tons), alongside tighter controls on fuel import quotas for private retailers. This heightens operational uncertainty for food, hospitality, and downstream distribution networks.

Water infrastructure failure risk

Water and sanitation systems face an estimated R400 billion rehabilitation backlog, with many municipalities rated “poor” or “critical.” Recent Gauteng outages affected up to 10 million people after power trips. Operational disruption risks include plant shutdowns, hygiene, and industrial downtime.

Tariff activism and reciprocity rates

Tariffs are being used as a standing policy lever—e.g., a reciprocal 18% rate applied to Indian-origin goods under executive authority—raising import costs, increasing pricing volatility, and incentivizing firms to re-route sourcing, renegotiate contracts, and localize production.

Tech sector volatility and rebalancing

High-tech remains ~57% of exports and 17% of GDP, but job seekers reached 16,300 (double 2022) and talent outflows persist. Funding rebounded to ~$15.6bn in 2025, increasingly defense-tech oriented, reshaping partners’ go-to-market and compliance needs.

Licenciamento ambiental e conflitos

Protestos indígenas bloquearam acesso a terminal no Tapajós, contestando dragagem e privatização de hidrovias, enquanto mudanças no licenciamento aumentam incerteza jurídica. Para agronegócio e mineração, atrasos podem interromper rotas do Arco Norte, encarecer seguros e exigir due diligence socioambiental reforçada.

District heating investment surge

City utilities are accelerating Wärmenetze expansion and modernization, including low‑temperature networks and large heat pumps. This drives major capex opportunities for foreign EPCs, pipe and insulation suppliers, and control-system vendors, but also heightens exposure to permitting delays and municipal procurement rules.

External financing and conditionality

Ukraine’s budget and defense sustainability depend on large official flows, including an EU-agreed €90 billion loan and an IMF Extended Fund Facility. Disbursements carry procurement, governance, and reform conditions; delays or missed benchmarks can disrupt public payments and project pipelines.

İsrail ticaret kısıtları genişliyor

Ankara’nın İsrail’e yönelik ticaret tedbirlerini Eur-Med tercih belgelerini durdurmaya kadar genişlettiği bildirildi. Bu, gümrükte menşe ve tercihli tarife süreçlerini etkileyebilir. Bölgesel tedarik, ara malı akışı ve kontrat performansı için belirsizlik artar.

Critical minerals bloc reshaping rules

The U.S. is pushing a preferential critical-minerals trade zone with price floors, reference pricing, and stockpiling (Project Vault), amid China’s dominant refining share. Canada is engaged but not always aligned, affecting mining investment, offtake deals, and EV/defence supply chains.

Trade balance strain with neighbors

Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbors widened 44.4% to $7.68bn in H1 FY26, driven by import growth (notably China) and weaker exports. This pressures FX demand and can prompt import management measures affecting raw materials and intermediate goods availability.

Policy execution and compliance environment

India continues “trust-based” tax and customs process reforms, including integrated systems and reduced litigation measures, while maintaining tighter enforcement in strategic sectors. Multinationals should expect improved digitalized compliance but uneven on-ground implementation across states and agencies.

Global trade remedies against overcapacity

Rising anti-dumping and safeguard actions targeting China-made steel and other industrial goods reflect persistent overcapacity and subsidization concerns. More tariffs, quotas, and investigations increase landed costs, disrupt procurement, and heighten retaliation risk across unrelated sectors, including commodities.

Border logistics and bridge uncertainty

U.S. threats to delay the Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge—despite its strategic role in a corridor handling about $126B in truck trade value—add operational risk. Firms should plan for border congestion, routing redundancy, and potential policy-linked disruptions at ports of entry.

Supply-chain bloc formation pressures

US-led efforts to build critical-minerals “preferential zones” with reference prices and tariffs signal broader de-risking blocs. Companies may face bifurcated supply chains, dual standards, and requalification of suppliers as trade rules diverge between China-centric and allied networks.

Cross-border corridor and border security

Thailand and Myanmar are exploring a Tachilek–Mae Sai transit corridor to move Thai fruit to China via Myanmar and expand bilateral flows. However, periodic border tensions and security policies can disrupt checkpoints, insurance costs, and delivery reliability for border supply chains.

Choques comerciais no agronegócio

Novas medidas de China e México sobre carne bovina alteram fluxo: a China impõe cota de 1,1 milhão t a 12% e excedente com sobretaxa de 55% (até 67% efetivo); México taxa acima de 70 mil t. Exige diversificação de destinos e ajustes na cadeia.

Licenciamento e exploração de óleo

A prospecção de novas fronteiras de petróleo está estagnada: poços offshore caíram de 150 (2011) para 19 (2025), com entraves de licenciamento e foco no pré-sal. Incide sobre oferta futura, conteúdo local, investimentos de fornecedores e previsibilidade regulatória para O&G.

Rail recovery and open-access shift

Transnet reports improving rail volumes from a 149.5 Mt low (2022/23) toward 160.1 Mt (2024/25) and a 250 Mt target, alongside reforms enabling 11 private operators. Better rail reliability lowers inland logistics costs but transition risks remain during access-agreement rollout.