EU partnership and EVFTA compliance

The EU upgraded ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and pushes fuller EVFTA implementation. Exporters face tighter EU requirements on ESG, traceability, safety and carbon rules (e.g., CBAM). Firms should budget for compliance systems, auditing, and cleaner inputs to protect EU access.

EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

US trade access and tariff risk

AGOA has been extended only one year, restoring preferences but preserving policy uncertainty and potential eligibility reviews. South Africa accounted for about half of the $8.23bn AGOA exports in 2024; short renewals complicate automotive, metals and agriculture investment decisions and contracting horizons.

Logistics hub buildout surge

Saudi Arabia is accelerating the National Transport and Logistics Strategy via port upgrades, transshipment growth and new logistics zones. January throughput reached 738,111 TEUs (+2% YoY) with transshipment up 22%. This improves regional routing options but raises competition and compliance demands.

Sanctions and “blood oil” compliance

Scrutiny is rising over refined fuel derived from spliced Russian crude, with claims Australia was the largest buyer among sanctioning nations in 2025. Potential rule changes could require origin due diligence and contract flexibility, raising procurement costs and enforcement risk across energy inputs.

External financing rollover dependence

Short-term bilateral rollovers (e.g., UAE’s $2bn deposit extended at 6.5% to April 2026) underscore fragile external buffers. Debt-service needs and refinancing risk can trigger FX volatility, capital controls, delayed profit repatriation, and higher country risk premia.

Ports and rail capacity recovery

Transnet is improving but remains a major supply-chain risk. Freight volumes rose to ~160.1Mt with revenue ~R42.7bn (+9.2%); coal exports via Richards Bay hit ~57.7Mt in 2025 (+11%). Yet Cape Town port backlogs can strand ~R1bn fruit shipments.

FDI ivmesi ve yatırım teşvikleri

2025’te DYY %12,2 artarak 13,1 milyar $ oldu; en büyük pay toptan-perakende %32, imalat %31, bilgi-iletişim %14. HIT-30 ve teşvik güncellemeleri, 5G yetkilendirmeleri ve sanayi alanı ilanları yatırım çekiyor; ancak finansman maliyeti ve politika algısı seçiciliği artırıyor.

Semiconductor-led export concentration

Exports surged 33.9% year-on-year in January, with semiconductor shipments up 103%, sustaining a 12-month surplus streak ($8.74bn in January). Heavy reliance on chips heightens exposure to AI-cycle volatility, export controls, and any U.S. or China tech trade tightening.

Corporate governance and shareholder activism

Ongoing governance reforms and investor pressure continue to reshape capital allocation, buybacks and M&A. Foreign investors face improving transparency and board independence, but also higher expectations on ESG, cyber controls and supply-chain due diligence in listed companies.

Vision 2030 spending recalibration

PIF is resetting its 2026–2030 strategy toward industry, minerals, AI and tourism while re-scoping mega-projects like NEOM’s The Line amid fiscal pressure from lower oil prices. Investors should expect shifting procurement pipelines, timelines and counterparties across giga-project supply chains.

Tariff volatility reshapes trade flows

Ongoing on‑again, off‑again tariffs and court uncertainty (including possible Supreme Court review of IEEPA-based duties) are driving import pull‑forwards and forecast containerized import declines in early 2026, complicating pricing, customs planning, and supplier diversification decisions.

Durcissement sanctions UE Russie

L’UE prépare un 20e paquet de sanctions: interdiction de services maritimes pour pétrole russe, ajout de navires “shadow fleet”, restrictions bancaires et crypto, nouvelles interdictions d’import/export. Impacts: due diligence, shipping/assurance, énergie, chaînes matières.

H-1B tightening and talent costs

New wage-weighted H-1B selection and a $100,000 fee for many new petitions raise labor costs and reduce predictability for global staffing. Multinationals may shift to L-1 transfers, expand offshore delivery centers, and adjust U.S. project timelines and location strategies.

Geoeconomic bloc politics with China

US-led ‘economic security’ clubs—especially critical minerals—pressure Australia to align with tariff-enabled frameworks while China remains its largest export market. Firms face higher policy volatility, potential retaliatory trade friction, and the need to diversify routes and customers.

Rail et nœuds logistiques fragiles

La régularité ferroviaire s’est dégradée en 2025; retards liés à l’opérateur, au réseau et à facteurs externes. Impacts: fiabilité des flux domestiques/portuaires, coûts de stocks, planning just-in-time, nécessité de redondance multimodale et assurances délai.

Ports capacity expansion and logistics resilience

DP World’s London Gateway surpassed 3m TEU in 2025 (+52%), with further all‑electric berths and rail investments underway, strengthening UK container capacity. While positive for importers, shifting freight patterns and carrier rate volatility can still disrupt cost forecasting.

Secondary sanctions and “tariff sanctions”

The U.S. is expanding extraterritorial pressure via secondary sanctions and even tariff penalties tied to dealings with sanctioned states (notably Iran). Firms trading through third countries face higher legal exposure, payment friction, disrupted shipping, and forced counterparties screening.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.

Semiconductor reshoring pressure intensifies

Washington is pressing for major Taiwan chip relocation (public 40% target), linking future tariffs and Section 232 outcomes to US investment. TSMC’s US build-out and Taiwan pushback create strategic uncertainty for capacity planning, supplier localization, and long-term pricing.

Fiscal tightening and sovereign risk

France’s 2026 budget continues consolidation, shifting costs onto sub‑national governments (≈€2.3bn revenue impact in 2026) and sustaining scrutiny after prior sovereign downgrades. Higher funding costs can pressure public procurement, infrastructure timelines, and corporate financing conditions.

Energy Security: LNG and Gas Reserves

Energy resilience remains a cost and operational factor. Germany’s gas storage fell to ~20%, prompting Trading Hub Europe to spend ~€60m on extra balancing capacity. Mukran LNG terminal disruptions from Baltic ice highlighted logistics fragility; price volatility affects energy-intensive manufacturing competitiveness.

China tech listings and blacklists

The Pentagon’s 1260H “PLA-linked” list changes—briefly adding firms like Alibaba, BYD and Baidu—highlight fast-moving US-China tech restrictions. Even provisional designations can trigger investor pullback, procurement exclusions, and pre-sanctions derisking across capital markets and partnerships.

Economic security industrial policy expansion

Japan is moving to expand economic-security tools and support “strategic” projects, including overseas initiatives and sensitive supply chains. Expect more subsidies, screening, and reporting in semiconductors, batteries and critical minerals, affecting market entry and procurement.

تعافي قناة السويس وأمن البحر الأحمر

عودة تدريجية لبعض خدمات الحاويات عبر البحر الأحمر وقناة السويس تقلّص أزمنة العبور بعد تراجع الحركة بنحو 60% منذ 2023. استمرار المخاطر الأمنية يرفع التأمين ويُبقي قابلية عكس المسارات عالية، ما يؤثر في موثوقية الجداول وتكاليف الشحن.

Arctic LNG logistics sophistication

Russia is scaling ship-to-ship LNG transfers in Murmansk, including Arctic LNG 2-linked cargoes routed toward China’s Beihai. Complex Arctic logistics can keep volumes moving but raise traceability, insurance, and counterparty risks; EU LNG policy uncertainty remains a key swing factor.

B40 biodiesel mandate impacts fuels

Indonesia will maintain the B40 palm-based biodiesel mandate through 2026 under PP No. 40/2025, after saving an estimated Rp720 trillion in FX and cutting ~228 million tons CO2 (2015–2025). Higher domestic palm demand can tighten CPO export availability and price volatility.

Red Sea shipping and insurance costs

Red Sea insecurity continues to distort trade lanes, with heightened risk for vessels linked to Israeli ports and periodic rerouting around the Cape. Elevated war-risk premiums and longer transit times affect inventory, freight budgeting, and supplier reliability for Israel-connected supply chains.

Forced-labor import enforcement intensifies

CBP enforcement under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act continues to drive detentions and documentation demands, increasingly affecting complex goods. Companies need deeper tier-n traceability, auditable supplier evidence, and contingency inventory planning to avoid port holds and write-offs.

Energy transition: nuclear plus renewables

Seoul plans two new nuclear reactors by 2038 alongside renewables to cut coal/LNG reliance, responding to strong public support. This reshapes power-price trajectories and grid investment needs, influencing energy-intensive manufacturing costs and long-term decarbonization compliance.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

The central bank cut policy rates by 100bps (deposit 19%, lending 20%) and lowered reserve requirements to 16%, signaling disinflation (headline ~11.9% Jan 2026). Lower funding costs may revive investment, but real rates and inflation risks persist.

China engagement and investment scrutiny

Ottawa’s diversification push toward China—alongside signals of openness to Chinese SOE energy stakes—raises national-security review, reputational and sanctions-compliance risk. Businesses should expect tighter due diligence and potential policy reversals amid allied pressure.

CFIUS and data-driven deal risk

Foreign acquisitions involving sensitive data and systemic assets face heightened CFIUS exposure, as seen in potential scrutiny of ETS/TOEFL due to personal data concentration and institutional role. Cross-border investors should plan for mitigation, deal delays, and valuation haircuts.

Federal shutdown and budget volatility

Recurring U.S. funding disputes create operational uncertainty for businesses dependent on federal services. A late-January partial shutdown risk tied to DHS and immigration enforcement highlights potential disruptions to permitting, inspections, procurement, and travel, with spillovers into logistics and compliance timelines.

Expansionary fiscal agenda, debt risks

The government’s post-election stimulus and proposed two-year suspension of the 8% food consumption tax heighten concerns over Japan’s already high debt and rising interest costs, potentially lifting JGB yields, tightening credit conditions, and complicating foreign investors’ return and valuation models.

Souveraineté numérique et cloud

L’État pousse la migration de données sensibles vers des clouds européens (OVH, Scaleway) pour réduire la dépendance aux GAFAM. Cela influence marchés publics, choix d’hébergement et conformité (résidence des données), et crée des opportunités pour fournisseurs IT européens.