Return to Homepage
Image

Mission Grey Daily Brief - April 14, 2025

Executive Summary

Today’s brief focuses on key global developments shaping the geopolitical and business landscape. The UK has taken decisive action in its steel sector, establishing stricter controls on Chinese investments following tensions with the Jingye Group. Meanwhile, India is leveraging the US-China trade war to negotiate favorable terms with Chinese suppliers, potentially reshaping its trade dynamics. The Osaka Expo 2025 opened in Japan with ambitious goals to unite a divided global economy. Finally, Gabon’s political transformation closed a pivotal chapter with its coup leader securing an overwhelming electoral mandate.

Each of these developments highlights shifting power dynamics, the growing importance of resource security in trade, and the need for businesses to navigate increasingly fragmented global markets.


Analysis

The UK and Its “High Trust Bar” for Chinese Investments

The UK government has taken emergency steps to prevent the closure of two major blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, effectively seizing control from Jingye Group, a Chinese-owned firm. This marks a broader policy shift, with the UK instituting a "high trust bar" for Chinese investments in sensitive sectors like steel. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds criticized Jingye for its intention to halt ore-processing operations and shift focus to imports, raising alarms over strategic dependency on foreign entities. Additionally, there has been implicit concern over whether such actions are influenced by China’s broader geopolitical agenda. Parliament has granted the government sweeping powers to maintain domestic production capacity, ensuring the security of industries vital to construction, defense, and rail [UK will set ‘hi...].

Implications: Strategically, this move indicates a deepening wariness toward Chinese investments, not just in the UK but potentially across the EU. Businesses reliant on Chinese supply chains face new regulatory challenges, while industries in strategic sectors may witness heightened state interventionism. For investors, this underscores the urgent need to evaluate geopolitical risks tied to foreign ownership structures.


India Exploits the US-China Trade Conflict

India is pursuing strategic negotiations with Chinese suppliers as the US escalates its tariff war against Beijing. Key opportunities lie in exploiting China’s surplus inventories across sectors like electronics, steel, and rare earth minerals. In fiscal year 2024, India imported $101.7 billion in goods from China, underscoring a pronounced trade imbalance. To hedge against US-China economic friction, Indian policymakers have adopted a cautious yet proactive stance, considering measures to secure discounts and ensure raw material access despite geopolitical constraints [India eyes barg...].

Implications: India’s strategy reflects a shift toward economic pragmatism, aiming to capitalize on short-term trade advantages while bolstering long-term self-reliance. Businesses with exposure to manufacturing and resource-heavy industries should monitor import cost fluctuations closely. Beyond immediate commercial gains, India’s positioning could enhance its competitiveness in the global supply chain realignment induced by US tariffs.


Osaka Expo 2025: A Unity-Inspired Event Amid Trade Tensions

The Osaka Expo launched to inspire cooperation in a fragmented global economy marred by trade wars, climate change, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine. With 160 participating nations, the expo showcases futuristic technologies like robots and space travel innovations. However, organizers faced cost overruns, supply chain delays, and weak ticket presales compared to prior events. There’s hope the expo, emblematic of global unity, will provide a framework for broader collaboration among trading nations, particularly those impacted by Trump’s tariffs on allies [Osaka Expo open...].

Implications: Osaka Expo may facilitate relationship building, particularly among Asian economies. For Japanese businesses and international participants, this presents opportunities to showcase technological leadership and secure cross-border partnerships. Observers should gauge how the Expo influences global conversations around shared economic interests and trade realignment moving forward.


Gabon’s Coup Leader Solidifies Power Through Elections

In Gabon, provisional results confirmed Oligui Nguema’s presidency after securing a staggering 90% of the vote. Nguema’s leadership follows a military coup that toppled former President Ali Bongo last year. While his election consolidates power, questions linger over the legitimacy of the process in a country with limited democratic experience. Geopolitically, this signals a potential turning point as Gabon seeks to stabilize under Nguema’s governance [Gabon’s coup le...].

Implications: Challenges such as attracting foreign investments and fostering institutional reforms will define Gabon’s trajectory under Nguema’s regime. For businesses, sectors like oil and mining remain high-risk but potentially rewarding areas to monitor.


Conclusions

Today's developments underscore the interplay of economic pragmatism and nationalism in shaping global markets. As countries impose stricter controls on strategic resources (the UK in steel, India in rare earths), businesses face fresh imperatives to secure resilient supply chains and adapt to volatile trade conditions. Additionally, global events such as the Osaka Expo offer a hopeful counterbalance to divisions brought by trade wars and geopolitical strife.

Critical questions for leaders to consider include: How should investors mitigate risks tied to state intervention in market economies? What role can international collaboration play in easing rising economic tensions? And in a fragmenting world, how can companies position themselves competitively without becoming overly dependent on singular geopolitical alignments?


Further Reading:

Themes around the World:

Flag

AI Basic Act compliance duties

South Korea’s AI Basic Act introduces requirements for transparency and labeling of AI-generated content, plus human oversight for high-impact uses in health, transport and finance. Foreign providers with large user bases may need local presence, raising compliance and operating overhead.

Flag

US-Led Board of Peace Reshapes Governance

The establishment of the US-chaired Board of Peace, with Israel as a member, is redefining post-war Gaza governance and reconstruction. The board’s broad mandate and financial requirements create new frameworks for international engagement, but also provoke political tensions and uncertainty for investors.

Flag

Supply Chain Diversification and Resilience

US and Taiwanese efforts to co-locate semiconductor production and critical supply chains in the US and third countries aim to reduce reliance on China, enhance resilience, and manage geopolitical risk. This trend is shaping investment and operational strategies.

Flag

EU Customs Union modernization momentum

Turkey and the EU agreed to keep working toward modernizing the 1995 Customs Union, with business pushing to expand it to services, digital and procurement. Progress could reduce friction for integrated value chains, but talks remain conditional on rule-of-law and climate alignment.

Flag

Indigenous Partnerships in Resource Projects

New agreements ensure Indigenous participation and ownership in critical minerals and infrastructure projects, especially in Western and Northern Canada. This approach enhances project legitimacy, streamlines permitting, and aligns with ESG expectations for international investors.

Flag

Secondary Iran trade penalties

An executive order authorizes ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, effectively extending secondary sanctions through border measures. Multinationals must intensify supply-chain and customer screening, reassess third-country exposure, and anticipate retaliation and compliance costs.

Flag

BRICS payments push sanctions exposure

Brazil’s joint statement with Russia criticising unilateral sanctions and promoting local-currency settlement comes as bilateral trade reached US$10.9bn in 2025. Firms must strengthen sanctions screening, banking counterparties and shipping/insurance checks to avoid secondary-sanctions and compliance disruptions.

Flag

Technology Sector Resilience and Global Ties

Despite regional instability, Israel’s technology and cybersecurity sectors attract substantial investment and foster international partnerships. Recent major funding rounds and cross-border collaborations, especially in cybersecurity, underscore the sector’s resilience and its centrality to Israel’s economic strategy.

Flag

Landmark India-EU Free Trade Agreement

India’s comprehensive FTA with the EU, concluded in January 2026, eliminates tariffs on 90% of Indian exports and expands market access for goods and services. This deal will significantly boost bilateral trade, attract FDI, and enhance supply chain resilience, positioning India as a key alternative to China.

Flag

Political fragmentation drives policy volatility

Repeated no-confidence votes and reliance on Article 49.3 highlight governance fragility. Expect sudden regulatory shifts, slower permitting, and higher execution risk for infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects as parties bargain issue-by-issue and elections loom.

Flag

Escalating Cross-Strait Geopolitical Risks

China’s intensifying military drills and threats of reunification by force heighten the risk of conflict, blockades, or supply chain disruption. This persistent tension is a critical risk factor for international investors and global business operations.

Flag

US–Indonesia reciprocal tariff deal

Jakarta and Washington say negotiations on a reciprocal tariff agreement are complete and await presidential signing. Reports indicate US duties on Indonesian exports fall from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia removes tariffs on most US goods and may accept clauses affecting digital trade and sanctions alignment.

Flag

Rusya yaptırımları ve uyum riski

AB’nin Rus petrolüne yönelik yaptırımları sertleştirmeyi tartışması ve rafine ürünlerde dolaylı akışları hedeflemesi, Türkiye üzerinden ticarette uyum/itibar riskini artırıyor. Bankacılık, sigorta, denizcilik ve ihracatçıların “yeniden ihracat” kontrollerini güçlendirmesi gerekebilir.

Flag

Regulatory Reform and Industrial Competitiveness

German industry leaders urge accelerated regulatory reforms, including reduced bureaucracy and faster permitting for industrial projects. Structural changes are seen as essential to counteract stagnation, improve competitiveness, and ensure Germany remains a leading destination for global business operations.

Flag

Sanctions expansion and enforcement intensity

U.S. sanctions policy is expanding and increasingly operational, raising shipping, insurance, and counterparty risks. New Iran measures targeted 15 entities and 14 vessels tied to the “shadow fleet” soon after nuclear talks, indicating parallel diplomacy and pressure. Firms need stronger screening and maritime due diligence.

Flag

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.

Flag

China-Finland Economic and Tech Cooperation

Finland and China are deepening cooperation in energy transition, technology, and circular economy. Bilateral agreements and Chinese investments in Finnish infrastructure offer growth opportunities but also require careful navigation of regulatory, political, and security considerations.

Flag

Outbound investment screening expansion

U.S. outbound investment restrictions targeting sensitive China-linked technologies are tightening, with reporting, prohibited transaction categories, and penalties evolving. Investors and corporates must enhance deal diligence, governance, and information barriers to avoid blocked investments and reputational damage.

Flag

US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Flag

Investment liberalization and market access

Saudi investment is surging, with total investment topping SR1.5 trillion ($400bn) in 2025 and FDI stock reaching SR1.05 trillion ($280bn) by Q3 2025. Capital markets opened wider from Feb. 1, reshaping entry, financing, and partnership strategies.

Flag

Manufacturing Push Through Deregulation

India aims to triple exports to $1.3 trillion by 2035 by prioritizing manufacturing in 15 sectors and launching the National Manufacturing Mission. The focus is on regulatory simplification, building manufacturing hubs, and reducing red tape rather than heavy subsidies, to boost competitiveness and attract investment.

Flag

Rules-Based Order Fragments Globally

Canadian leadership now openly acknowledges the collapse of the traditional rules-based international order. This fragmentation increases uncertainty for multinational firms, as trade, finance, and supply chains become tools of geopolitical leverage rather than predictable frameworks.

Flag

Shadow-fleet oil trade disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on a mature “dark fleet” using AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and transshipment hubs (notably Malaysia) to reach China at discounts. Expanded interdictions and tanker seizures increase freight, insurance, and contract-frustration risks for energy-linked supply chains.

Flag

Labor Market and Federal Workforce Shifts

US job growth has slowed, with federal employment down 9% and manufacturing jobs declining. Policy uncertainty and tariffs have dampened hiring and investment, affecting consumer sentiment and business expansion plans, especially for international investors.

Flag

Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.

Flag

Monetary policy amid trade uncertainty

With inflation around 2.4% and the policy rate near 2.25%, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates while tariff uncertainty clouds growth and hiring. Financing costs may stay elevated; firms should stress-test cash flows against demand shocks and FX volatility.

Flag

Weaponization of Trade and Supply Chains

US trade policy is increasingly driven by geopolitical considerations, with tariffs, sanctions, and export controls used as strategic tools. This shift from efficiency to security heightens supply chain fragility, risk aversion, and the need for resilience in global business operations.

Flag

Pivot to Asian and Friendly Markets

Russia has redirected over 85% of its trade to 'friendly' countries, notably China, India, and Central Asia, following Western sanctions. This shift has deepened economic ties, diversified export portfolios, and reduced Russia’s reliance on Western markets, but also increases exposure to geopolitical shifts in Asia.

Flag

US reciprocal tariff deal pending

Indonesia and the US are preparing to sign an Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART), with talks reportedly reducing a mooted 32% US tariff to ~19% and carving out key Indonesian exports. Commitments may include ~$15bn Indonesian purchases of US energy, reshaping trade flows.

Flag

Market Transparency and Capital Outflows

Indonesia’s stock market suffered an $80 billion rout in January 2026 after MSCI flagged transparency and ownership concerns, threatening a downgrade to frontier market status. Regulatory reforms, including a 15% free float requirement, are underway, but investor confidence and foreign capital flows remain fragile.

Flag

Macroprudential tightening hits credit

BDDK and the central bank tightened consumer and FX-credit rules: card limits must align with documented income, unused high limits can be reduced, restructuring is capped, and FX-loan growth limits were cut to 0.5% over eight weeks. Expect tighter liquidity and financing.

Flag

Infrastructure Expansion and Logistics

Major investments in logistics, such as the BR-163 highway extension (R$10.6 billion), are improving connectivity for agribusiness and exports. Persistent delays in rail projects highlight ongoing challenges, but road upgrades support supply chain efficiency and export competitiveness.

Flag

Critical Minerals and Re-shoring Push

The U.S. is strengthening industrial policy around strategic inputs, including initiatives to secure critical minerals and expand domestic capacity. This supports investment in upstream and processing projects but raises permitting, local-content, and ESG scrutiny that can delay timelines and alter supplier selection.

Flag

Weak growth, high household debt

Thailand’s growth outlook remains subdued (around 1.6–2% in 2026; ~2% projected by officials), constrained by tight credit and household debt near 86.8% of GDP (higher including informal debt). This depresses domestic demand, raises NPL risk, and limits pricing power.

Flag

Export Growth Amid Rising Competition

Despite global headwinds, Turkey achieved record exports in 2025, notably to the EU and Italy. However, rising input costs, increased Asian competition, and sector-specific declines (e.g., white goods) signal the need for policy support, innovation, and cost-effective production to sustain export momentum.

Flag

Tariff volatility and legal fights

U.S. tariff policy remains fluid, including renewed baseline/reciprocal tariff concepts and active court challenges over executive authority. Importers face pricing uncertainty, sudden compliance changes, and higher landed-cost risk, especially for China-, Canada-, and Mexico-linked supply chains.