Financial volatility from foreign flows

Taiwan’s central bank flags heightened FX and equity volatility from rapid foreign capital inflows/outflows and ETF growth. This raises hedging costs and balance-sheet risk for multinationals, especially those with USD revenues and NTD cost bases or large local financing exposure.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Expanded defense exports, rearmament

Japan is doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP and moving to relax limits on defense equipment exports, including potentially lethal items and third-country sales of jointly developed systems. This opens opportunities in aerospace, components, cyber, and dual-use—but raises regulatory and reputational considerations.

Border disruptions, transit trade growth

Thai-Cambodian tensions and Myanmar instability are disrupting overland logistics and checkpoint operations, while transit trade hit a record 1.04 trillion baht in 2025. Supply chains should build redundancy via sea routes, Laos/Vietnam corridors, and risk-aware inventory planning near border hubs.

Digital sovereignty and data controls

Russia is tightening internet and data-localisation rules, throttling Telegram and moving to block WhatsApp while promoting state-backed ‘Max’. From 1 Jan 2026, services must retain messages for three years and share on request, raising surveillance, cybersecurity, and operational continuity risks for firms.

China tech export controls tighten

Stricter licensing and enforcement are reshaping semiconductor and AI supply chains. Nvidia’s H200 China sales face detailed KYC/end-use monitoring, while Applied Materials paid a $252M penalty over SMIC-related exports, elevating compliance costs, deal timelines, and diversion risk.

State-asset sales and listings

Government plans to restructure 60 state firms—40 to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and 20 toward stock-market listing—to widen private-sector participation. This creates M&A and partnership opportunities but requires careful diligence on governance, valuation, and regulatory approvals.

Digital economy and data centres

Ho Chi Minh City is catalysing tech infrastructure: announced frameworks include up to US$1bn commitments for hyperscale AI/cloud data centres and a digital-asset fund. Gains include better digital services and compute capacity, but execution depends on power reliability, approvals and data-governance rules.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

UK inflation cooled to 3.0% in January, lifting market odds of a March Bank of England rate cut after a 5–4 hold. Shifting borrowing costs will affect sterling, refinancing, consumer demand and valuation assumptions for inbound investment and M&A.

Electricity tariffs and affordability squeeze

Large-user electricity tariffs are cited as up ~970% since 2007, with further hikes expected, while government plans a revised pricing policy in 2026. Higher operating costs and energy poverty pressures can hit mining, manufacturing margins, and project bankability.

Regulatory uncertainty, policy credibility

Even with improving macro indicators (primary surplus ~1.3% of GDP; current-account surplus), business planning is constrained by frequent policy adjustments tied to IMF benchmarks and coalition politics. Expect shifting tax measures, price controls and sectoral directives; robust scenario planning and stabilization clauses are critical.

Fiscal tightening and sovereign risk

France’s 2026 budget continues consolidation, shifting costs onto sub‑national governments (≈€2.3bn revenue impact in 2026) and sustaining scrutiny after prior sovereign downgrades. Higher funding costs can pressure public procurement, infrastructure timelines, and corporate financing conditions.

Sanctions tightening and compliance spillovers

EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands maritime services bans, shadow‑fleet listings, bank designations, anti‑circumvention tools, and export/import controls. Firms operating in Ukraine must strengthen counterparty screening, shipping due diligence, and re‑export controls to avoid violations.

Tighter residency and talent rules

Japan raised permanent residency guideline requirements to a five-year visa stay and increased scrutiny of tax and social-insurance compliance. While highly skilled professionals retain faster pathways, multinationals may see higher HR friction, retention risk, and compliance workload.

Digital sovereignty and cloud buildout

Vietnam is expanding sovereign digital infrastructure, highlighted by G42 and Vietnamese partners’ plan to invest up to US$1bn across three data centres for AI and cloud services. Firms should assess data residency, vendor approvals, and cybersecurity obligations before migration.

Reconstruction pipeline and procurement governance

Large donor-funded rebuilding is expanding tenders via platforms such as Prozorro, but governance and integrity scrutiny remains high. Contractors must prepare for stringent audits, beneficial-ownership transparency, ESG requirements, and delays linked to security conditions and permitting constraints.

Tech controls, sanctions, and compliance tightening

Trade is increasingly treated as national security, with stronger export-control alignment and sanctions enforcement affecting dual-use technology, advanced manufacturing, and finance. Firms face higher screening burdens, third-country transshipment scrutiny, and elevated penalties for circumvention, especially in China- and Russia-linked exposure.

Capital markets opening and IPO pipeline

Tadawul is opening more broadly to foreign investors, with expectations of incremental inflows alongside continued IPO activity across industrials, energy services and contractors. For multinationals, this improves local funding options and exit routes, but brings higher governance and disclosure scrutiny.

Tariff regime and legal uncertainty

Trump-era broad tariffs face Supreme Court and congressional challenges, creating volatile landed costs and contract risk. Average tariffs rose from 2.6% to 13% in 2025; potential refunds could exceed $130B, complicating pricing, sourcing, and inventory strategies.

China trade controls and escalation

Washington is preparing fresh Section 301 investigations into Chinese strategic sectors (EV batteries, rare earths, advanced AI chips) alongside existing high China tariff ranges and technology restrictions. Expect renewed compliance burdens, supplier diversification, and heightened disruption risk for electronics, energy transition, and defense-adjacent supply chains.

Rezervler güçlü, dış borç baskısı

TCMB brüt rezervleri Ocak sonunda 218,2 milyar $ ile rekor görüp 20 Şubat haftasında 206,1 milyar $’a indi. Buna karşılık 1 yıl içinde vadesi gelecek kısa vadeli dış borç 225,4 milyar $. Yenileme maliyeti ve likidite riski artıyor.

Ports, freight corridors, logistics capex

Budget 2026 lifts capex to ~₹12.2 lakh crore (4.4% of GDP), funding seven rail corridors, freight corridors, and logistics upgrades. Lower transit time and logistics costs can improve export competitiveness, but timelines, land acquisition, and contractor capacity remain key.

Energy export reorientation to Asia

Russian crude flows are increasingly concentrated in China, India and Türkiye, often sold at deeper discounts amid sanctions pressure. India has reduced buying and may tighten further under US/EU pressure, increasing Russia’s dependence on China and volatility in global oil supply chains.

Baht strength and monetary easing

The Bank of Thailand signals accommodative policy and more active FX management amid baht appreciation and election-linked volatility. A potential cut toward 1.00% and tighter controls on gold-linked flows affect exporters’ margins, import costs, hedging needs and repatriation planning.

Rail et nœuds logistiques fragiles

La régularité ferroviaire s’est dégradée en 2025; retards liés à l’opérateur, au réseau et à facteurs externes. Impacts: fiabilité des flux domestiques/portuaires, coûts de stocks, planning just-in-time, nécessité de redondance multimodale et assurances délai.

US–China decoupling accelerates

China tariffs remain high (reported 35%–50% by product) while new investigations target strategic sectors (EVs, rare earths, AI). Expect retaliatory measures, licensing delays, and relocation of manufacturing to Vietnam/India; also heightened scrutiny of transshipment and origin compliance.

Foreign investment scrutiny and approvals

National-security sensitivities (e.g., critical infrastructure and strategic assets) keep FIRB review stringent, affecting deal timelines, conditions and ownership structures. Investors should plan for pre-lodgement engagement, mitigation undertakings, and heightened scrutiny of state-linked capital sources.

Financial system tightening and liquidity

Banking reforms—phasing out credit quotas and moving toward Basel III—may reprice credit and widen gaps between strong and weak lenders. With credit-to-GDP above 140% and periodic liquidity spikes, corporates may face higher working-capital costs and tougher project financing.

Semiconductor ecosystem and ATMP buildout

India is accelerating chip packaging and ecosystem investments, including the ₹3,700 crore HCL–Foxconn OSAT project and Semiconductor Mission 2.0 funding. Opportunities include supplier clustering and design centers; risks include execution, utilities reliability, and skills constraints.

Maritime security and chokepoints

Iran-linked regional tensions elevate risk around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea routing. Even without closure, seizures, drone incidents, and proxy threats can raise freight and war-risk premiums, extend lead times, and force supply chains to reroute and rebuffer.

Financial liquidity chasing commodities

Ample liquidity amid weak real-economy returns is spilling into metals and gold trading, amplifying price volatility. With M2 growth (8.5% y/y) outpacing nominal GDP (3.9%), firms face unpredictable input costs, hedging needs, and potential administrative tightening if bubbles are suspected.

Energy security and LNG flexibility

Japanese firms handled ~110 million tons of LNG in 2024; destination-restricted volumes remain ~40%, though projected to decline. JERA’s long-term Qatar deal (3 mtpa for 27 years) plus U.S. LNG adds resilience, influencing power costs and contract strategies.

Défense: hausse des dépenses 2026

Le budget 2026 prévoit 57,2 Md€ pour les armées (+13%) et une actualisation de la LPM attendue au printemps. Opportunités: marchés défense, cybersécurité, drones; contraintes: conformité export, priorités industrielles, tensions sur capacités et main-d’œuvre.

De minimis rollback affects e-commerce

Suspension of duty-free de minimis treatment remains in place, increasing landed costs and customs complexity for low-value shipments. Cross-border e-commerce, marketplaces, and SMEs must redesign fulfillment, pricing, and returns, while expecting longer clearance times and higher brokerage fees.

EU-Nachhaltigkeitsregeln und Lieferkettenpflichten

Die Umsetzung/Überarbeitung von EU-CSDDD/„Omnibus“-Paketen und die Verzahnung mit deutschen Sorgfaltspflichten verschieben Compliance-Anforderungen. Fokus auf Tier‑1‑Lieferanten, Haftungsfragen und Berichtspflichten verändern Vertragsgestaltung, Auditprogramme und Lieferantenauswahl; Reputations- und Bußgeldrisiken bleiben.

AB gümrük birliği modernizasyonu

AB ile Gümrük Birliği güncellemesi; tarım, hizmetler, kamu alımları ve uyuşmazlık çözümü başlıklarını etkiler. Modernizasyon, menşe kuralları ve uyum standartlarını sıkılaştırabilir. AB pazarına ihracatçıların tedarik zinciri izlenebilirliği ve uyum maliyeti artar.