India-US tariff deal uncertainty

India and the United States are nearing an interim trade pact, but tariff terms remain unsettled amid Section 301 investigations and court rulings. With bilateral goods trade around $149 billion in 2025, exporters face continued pricing, compliance, and market-access uncertainty.

Renewables and Private Energy Scaling

Private energy investment is expanding rapidly alongside market reform. African Rainbow Energy took control of SOLA, which has a R20 billion renewable portfolio including 1,100 MWp of solar and 730 MWh of storage, strengthening corporate power procurement options.

Chinese Capital Deepens Presence

Brazil became the largest global recipient of Chinese investment in 2025, attracting US$6.1 billion, with electricity and mining absorbing US$3.55 billion. This boosts manufacturing, EV, and resource chains, but creates concentration, geopolitical, governance, and strategic dependency considerations for foreign firms.

Hormuz Disruption and Shipping Risk

Strait of Hormuz disruption is the dominant trade risk: roughly 20% of global seaborne crude and LNG normally transits it, while Iran depends on the route for over 90% of trade. Shipping, insurance, routing, and compliance costs have surged.

Shipbuilding and LNG Expansion

Korean shipbuilders are winning major LNG, ammonia-carrier, gas-carrier, and FSRU orders while the government deepens shipbuilding-shipping coordination. This strengthens Korea’s role in maritime energy infrastructure, benefiting export earnings, industrial suppliers, port logistics, and long-cycle manufacturing investment.

Debt Brake Political Uncertainty

Coalition divisions over suspending the constitutional debt brake are creating policy uncertainty around future relief, taxation, and spending. Emergency borrowing remains possible if shocks deepen, complicating expectations for public investment timing, interest rates, and Germany’s medium-term macro framework.

B50 Biodiesel Strains Palm Balance

Indonesia’s planned B50 biodiesel rollout from July 2026 could absorb an extra 1.5–1.7 million tons of CPO this year and up to 3.5 million annually. That supports energy security but may tighten edible oil supply, lift prices and constrain exports.

Rare Earth Supply Leverage

China’s dominance in processing remains a major chokepoint, refining over 90% of global rare earths. Heavy rare earth exports are still around 50% below pre-restriction levels, raising prices sharply and threatening production across autos, aerospace, electronics, wind, and defense supply chains.

Semiconductor Controls and Reshoring

Japan is increasingly central to allied semiconductor controls and supply-chain realignment. Proposed US rules could pressure Japan to tighten equipment restrictions on China further, while domestic chip investment and trusted manufacturing expansion create opportunities alongside higher geopolitical and regulatory risk.

US Trade Deal Uncertainty

Bangkok is accelerating a reciprocal trade agreement with Washington while defending itself in a Section 301 probe. With US-Thai trade above $93.6 billion in 2025, tariff outcomes and sourcing demands could materially affect exporters, manufacturers, and investment planning.

Rare Earth Leverage Reshapes Supply

China has tightened rare earth licensing and broader critical-mineral controls, after earlier shortages rapidly affected overseas manufacturers. For global businesses, this reinforces vulnerability in automotive, electronics, and defense-adjacent supply chains, increasing inventory, diversification, and contract-security costs across strategic inputs.

Shadow Banking and Payment Barriers

Iran’s exclusion from mainstream finance is deepening reliance on shadow banking, exchange houses, shell companies, and informal settlement channels. Treasury says these networks move tens of billions of dollars, creating major counterparty, AML, settlement, and correspondent-banking risks for cross-border business.

CUSMA Review Drives Uncertainty

The mandatory Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade pact review is approaching with major disputes unresolved, including metals, autos, dairy and alcohol restrictions. Slow negotiations and conflicting leverage strategies are prolonging uncertainty for exporters, cross-border manufacturers and investors tied to North American supply chains.

LNG Expansion Reshapes Energy Trade

Shell’s C$22 billion ARC acquisition strengthens feedstock supply for LNG Canada and improves prospects for Phase 2, which could attract C$33 billion in private investment. Expanded LNG capacity would deepen Asia exposure, support infrastructure spending and diversify hydrocarbon export markets.

Cross-Strait Security and Shipping Risk

Chinese military activity around Taiwan continues to elevate contingency risk for shipping, insurance, and board-level investment decisions. Recent sorties crossed the median line, reinforcing concern that any escalation could disrupt Taiwan Strait logistics, export schedules, and regional supply-chain continuity.

Energy Shock Weakens Competitiveness

UK exposure to imported energy and Middle East supply disruptions is lifting oil and gas prices, increasing inflation and eroding industrial competitiveness. Higher input, freight and utility costs are straining manufacturers, logistics operators and consumer-facing businesses, while complicating pricing and sourcing strategies.

Sanctions And Strategic Alignment

Canada continues tightening sanctions, including new measures on Russia, while aligning strategic industries with trusted partners and reducing exposure to non-allied supply chains. This raises compliance demands for multinationals and favors investment structures linked to allied sourcing, defence and critical minerals.

Domestic Gas Reservation Shift

Canberra will require east-coast LNG exporters to reserve 20% of output for domestic users from July 2027, aiming to curb shortages and lower prices. The intervention changes contract economics for Shell, Santos and Origin-linked projects while reshaping energy-intensive manufacturing and export planning.

Tariff Truce Remains Fragile

Although Beijing and Washington are pursuing summit diplomacy, the current trade truce appears tactical and time-limited, not structural. Businesses should expect renewed tariff, sanctions, and licensing volatility before the November 2026 expiry, complicating pricing, investment timing, and long-cycle capital-allocation decisions.

Fiscal stabilization supports confidence

Moody’s says government debt may have peaked at 86.8% of GDP in 2025 and could decline to 84.9% by 2028. Narrower deficits and stronger tax collection support macro stability, though high interest costs still limit policy flexibility and public investment.

Fuel Security Vulnerabilities Exposed

Middle East disruption and Strait of Hormuz risk have highlighted Australia’s dependence on imported crude and refined fuels despite its energy-exporter status. Government moves to build a one-billion-litre fuel stockpile and secure Asian supply arrangements will affect logistics, inventory strategy and transport-sensitive operations.

Inflation and lira instability

Turkey’s April inflation accelerated to 32.37% year on year and 4.18% month on month, while USD/TRY hit record highs near 45.2. Persistent price and currency volatility raises import costs, complicates pricing, wage planning, hedging, and investment returns.

Labor Shortages Hit Construction

Foreign worker availability remains constrained, especially in construction, where China reportedly paused sending workers, leaving around 800 expected arrivals missing. Labor scarcity, security compliance concerns and disrupted recruitment channels can delay projects, raise costs and tighten real-estate supply.

Sticky Inflation, High Rates

Inflation remains near the upper tolerance band, with April IPCA at 4.39% year on year and 2026 expectations at 4.91%. Even after Selic fell to 14.5%, restrictive monetary conditions still weigh on credit, consumption, capex, and working capital.

Tighter Data And AI Rules

Canadian privacy watchdogs found OpenAI breached federal and provincial consent rules, reinforcing pressure for stricter digital governance. Businesses operating AI, data processing and customer analytics in Canada should expect higher compliance expectations, possible legal exposure and evolving privacy-law modernization.

Tech And Capital Resilience

Despite conflict, Israel’s capital markets and innovation sectors remain strong: the TA-35 rose 52% in 2025, private tech funding reached $19.9 billion, and M&A hit $82.3 billion. This supports selective investment opportunities, especially in cybersecurity, AI and defense technology.

AI Infrastructure Investment Surge

France is emerging as a European AI hub, with SoftBank considering up to $100 billion and major prior commitments from Brookfield, Digital Realty, Prologis, Amazon and others. This strengthens data-center, cloud and semiconductor ecosystems, but intensifies competition for power, land, and grid connections.

Energy And Logistics Cost Pressures

Higher energy and transport costs linked to Middle East disruption are weighing on German industry and trade margins. Businesses report pricier shipping and inputs, while weaker industrial production underscores the risk of renewed cost inflation across manufacturing supply chains.

Monetary Tightening Uncertainty Persists

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, but inflation and energy-shock risks keep tightening on the table. Businesses face elevated financing costs, volatile sterling expectations, and weaker growth, complicating investment timing and credit conditions.

Digital Infrastructure Investment Surge

BOI approvals worth 958 billion baht were led by TikTok’s 842 billion baht expansion, with data-centre projects totaling 913 billion baht. This strengthens Thailand’s role in AI infrastructure, but raises execution, electricity, and technology-control risks for investors.

Monetary Tightening Risk Builds

The Bank of Korea is turning more hawkish as growth stays above 2% and inflation exceeds 2.2%, with officials openly discussing possible rate hikes. Higher borrowing costs would affect corporate financing, real investment decisions, consumer demand, and commercial real-estate conditions.

IMF-Driven Reform and Financing

Egypt’s IMF programme remains central to macro stability, with a review under way that could unlock $1.6 billion. Subsidy cuts, market pricing, privatisation and fiscal tightening improve long-term credibility, but near-term operating costs, compliance burdens and social sensitivity remain elevated.

Trade Deficits and Tariff Exposure

The UK’s visible trade deficit widened to £27.2 billion in March as imports jumped 8.1% and exports rose just 0.1%. Recent tariff shocks, including reported export declines to the US, increase uncertainty for exporters, pricing strategies and cross-border sourcing.

Inflation and cost pressures

Israel is facing renewed price pressures in fuel, food, rent and air travel, with forecasts putting annual inflation around 2.3% to 2.5%. Rising consumer and input costs may keep interest rates elevated, constrain household demand and increase operating expenses across retail, logistics and services.

Sanctions and Compliance Fragmentation

US sanctions, especially on Chinese refiners tied to Iranian oil, are colliding with Beijing’s anti-sanctions rules. Multinationals now face conflicting legal obligations across banking, shipping, insurance, and procurement, increasing the need for parallel compliance structures and more cautious transaction screening.

Power Reliability for Advanced Industry

Electricity availability is becoming a core industrial constraint as chip fabs, AI servers, and data centers expand. Officials expect demand growth to accelerate sharply, while even brief outages can impose severe semiconductor losses and undermine confidence in Taiwan-based production.