State Intervention in Critical Infrastructure

The German government’s acquisition of a 25.1% stake in Tennet Germany signals increased state involvement in securing and financing critical electricity infrastructure. This move aims to support grid modernization and climate goals, but raises questions about market dynamics and public-private risk sharing.

AI-Driven Layoffs and Workforce Restructuring

A wave of major layoffs is sweeping the US, with Amazon alone cutting 16,000 jobs in January 2026 and UPS reducing up to 30,000 positions. These cuts are driven by rapid adoption of AI and automation, post-pandemic overhiring corrections, and cost pressures from tariffs and inflation. The trend is reshaping labor markets, increasing anxiety, and forcing companies to invest in upskilling or risk investor backlash. This structural shift impacts tech, logistics, retail, and manufacturing, with significant implications for consumer demand and supply chain resilience.

Orta Koridor lojistik fırsatı

Trans-Hazar Orta Koridoru, Çin‑Avrupa transit süresini deniz yolundaki 35–50 günden 18–25 güne düşürebiliyor. Türkiye’nin demiryolu/liman bağlantıları, depolama ve gümrük verimliliği yatırımları önem kazanıyor; kapasite darboğazı ve sınır geçiş gecikmeleri operasyonel risk.

Energy Transition and LNG Import Surge

Egypt is rapidly expanding renewable energy projects, signing $1.8 billion in deals with Norway and China. However, domestic gas production decline and regional supply disruptions have turned Egypt into a major LNG importer, raising costs and supply chain complexity.

Infrastructure Investment and Development Hubs

A historic infrastructure plan allocates 5.6 trillion pesos to energy, transport, health, and education projects through 2030. The strategy seeks to boost growth, regional development, and social equity, with mixed public-private models and streamlined regulatory frameworks.

Supply Chain Stability Improves, Risks Remain

Only 7.5% of German firms report supply chain difficulties, a significant improvement from previous years. The auto sector especially benefits, but ongoing geopolitical tensions and critical dependencies—such as on semiconductors—require continued vigilance and risk management for international businesses.

US Energy Transition and Climate Policy

Federal investment in clean energy and infrastructure modernization is accelerating, but regulatory uncertainty and political resistance persist. Businesses face shifting incentives, compliance requirements, and supply chain adjustments as the US seeks to balance energy security with climate commitments.

Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics

Vietnam’s young, growing workforce underpins its manufacturing competitiveness. However, wage pressures, skills shortages, and the need for digital upskilling are emerging challenges. Labor market reforms and social stability are essential for maintaining cost advantages and attracting long-term investment.

USMCA Renegotiation and Trade Uncertainty

The 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) introduces significant uncertainty for Canadian exporters and investors. Rising US protectionism and threats to terminate the agreement could disrupt North American supply chains and alter market access for key sectors.

Currency Volatility and Gold Trading

Surging gold trading volumes have driven rapid appreciation of the Thai baht, threatening export and tourism competitiveness. The central bank is capping gold transactions and tightening reporting to curb currency volatility, with direct implications for exporters, importers, and investors.

Tightened Foreign Investment and Land Rules

Japan is intensifying scrutiny of large-scale land acquisitions and raising barriers for foreign business visas, requiring higher capital and stricter compliance. These changes aim to protect national interests but may deter smaller foreign investors and impact market entry strategies.

Regulatory Uncertainty and National Security

China’s regulatory environment has become more unpredictable, with heightened enforcement on national security, technology, and data. Foreign businesses face stricter compliance requirements, greater scrutiny, and potential exposure to sudden policy shifts, impacting investment and operational planning.

Regulatory and Policy Shifts for Business

Japan is implementing regulatory reforms to attract foreign investment and enhance business resilience. Policy changes in economic security, industrial strategy, and trade are designed to support supply chain diversification, technological innovation, and long-term competitiveness for international firms.

Renewables, batteries and green hydrogen

Large-scale clean-energy buildout is accelerating: the $1.8bn ‘Energy Valley’ project includes 1.7 GW solar plus 4 GWh storage, and a 10 GWh/year battery factory in SCZONE is planned. Green hydrogen/ammonia export plans target first shipment by 2027.

Security Risks and Regional Instability

Persistent terrorism, border tensions with Afghanistan, and internal unrest continue to disrupt supply chains, deter foreign investment, and raise operational costs. Recent US and international travel advisories highlight sustained security risks, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, impacting business confidence and insurance premiums.

Mining Sector Volatility and Opportunity

South Africa’s mining sector faces structural challenges—rising costs, unreliable power, and logistics bottlenecks—despite a windfall from soaring gold and PGM prices. Fiscal revenues are rebounding, but long-term investment is hampered by uncertainty, threatening the sector’s global standing and supply chain reliability.

US trade talks and tariff risk

Vietnam is negotiating a more “reciprocal” trade framework with the US amid tariff pressure and scrutiny of Vietnam’s export surplus. Outcomes could reshape duties, rules-of-origin enforcement and supply-chain routing, affecting apparel, electronics, and China-plus-one strategies.

Tourism recovery with demand mix risks

Tourism is near recovery: Phuket passengers rebounded to 96.4% of 2019 and arrivals Jan 1–25 reached 2.63m (≈THB129.9bn). However, China remains volatile and room-rate power is limited, affecting retail, hospitality capex, labor demand, and services supply chains.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleet

Washington is intensifying sanctions implementation, including congressional moves targeting Russia’s shadow tanker network and broader enforcement on Iran/Russia-linked actors. Shipping, trading, and financial firms face higher screening expectations, voyage-risk analytics needs, and potential secondary sanctions exposure.

Baht strength and financing conditions

The baht appreciated strongly in 2025 and stayed firm into 2026, pressuring export and tourism competitiveness while lowering import costs. With possible rate cuts but rising long-end yields, corporates face mixed funding conditions, FX hedging needs, and margin volatility.

Transport infrastructure funding shift

Une loi-cadre transports vise 1,5 Md€ annuels supplémentaires pour régénérer le rail (objectif 4,5 Md€/an en 2028) et recourt davantage aux PPP. Discussions sur hausse/ indexation des tarifs et recettes autoroutières accroissent l’incertitude coûts logistiques et mobilité salariés.

Accelerated Economic Reform Agenda

Vietnam’s leadership has committed to sweeping economic and administrative reforms, targeting over 10% annual GDP growth through 2030. This includes bureaucratic streamlining, private sector empowerment, and innovation, with significant implications for investment climate and business operations.

Strategic Trade Diversification Amid US Tariffs

India has rapidly signed FTAs with the UK, New Zealand, Oman, and the EU, reducing dependence on the US market amid high American tariffs. This diversification hedges against global trade fragmentation and enhances India’s leverage in global economic negotiations.

USMCA review and stricter origin

The 2026 USMCA joint review is moving toward tighter rules of origin, stronger enforcement, and more coordination on critical minerals. North American manufacturers should expect compliance burdens, sourcing shifts, and potential disruption to duty-free treatment for borderline products.

China duty-free access pivot

South Africa and China signed a framework toward duty-free access for selected goods via an “Early Harvest” deal by end-March 2026, amid US tariff pressure. Opportunity expands market access and investment, but raises competitive pressure from imports and dependency risks.

Industrial policy reshapes investment

CHIPS/IRA-style incentives and local-content rules steer capex toward U.S. manufacturing, batteries, and clean tech, while raising compliance complexity for multinationals. Subsidies can improve U.S. project economics, but may trigger trade frictions, retaliation, and fragmented global production strategies.

Critical Mineral Diversification Strategy

Japanese firms are rapidly diversifying supply chains for minerals like gallium and rare earths, securing new sources in Kazakhstan and Australia. These efforts aim to reduce strategic vulnerabilities, ensure manufacturing continuity, and stabilize high-tech sectors amid global supply shocks.

Massive Public Investment Program 2026

Turkey’s 2026 Investment Program allocates 1.92 trillion TRY to 13,887 projects, prioritizing infrastructure, earthquake resilience, energy, and logistics. This large-scale public spending aims to boost economic growth and supply chain capacity, but also tests fiscal discipline.

Geopolitical Balancing and Strategic Autonomy

Vietnam is leveraging ‘bamboo diplomacy’ to maintain balanced relations with major powers, diversify markets, and enhance strategic autonomy. This approach reduces overdependence on any single partner, bolsters resilience, and positions Vietnam as a key node in regional and global trade.

Indigenous Partnerships in Resource Projects

New agreements ensure Indigenous participation and ownership in critical minerals and infrastructure projects, especially in Western and Northern Canada. This approach enhances project legitimacy, streamlines permitting, and aligns with ESG expectations for international investors.

Snap Election and Policy Uncertainty

Prime Minister Takaichi’s snap election on February 8, 2026, introduces significant policy uncertainty. Key campaign issues include fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, and defense spending, with the election outcome set to shape Japan’s economic and regulatory environment for years, impacting investor confidence and market stability.

Regulatory and Political Volatility

Frequent regulatory changes—including environmental rollbacks, immigration crackdowns, and shifts in tax enforcement—are heightening operational risks for international businesses. The Trump administration’s aggressive use of executive power and unpredictable policy reversals are forcing companies to build greater flexibility and contingency into their US strategies, impacting investment timelines and compliance costs.

Reshoring and Supply Chain Sovereignty

US policy is shifting decisively toward domestic production and supply chain resilience, with $2.5 billion allocated for critical minerals and incentives for reshoring. This move, highlighted at Davos, signals a structural pivot away from globalism, impacting sourcing strategies and operational costs for multinationals.

War economy, fiscal pressure, interventionism

Russia’s war economy features high state direction, widening deficits, and elevated inflation/interest rates (reported 16% policy rate). Authorities may raise taxes, impose administrative controls, and steer credit toward defense priorities, increasing payment delays, contract renegotiations, and operational unpredictability for remaining investors.

Energy reform and grid constraints

CFE’s new “mixed project” rules allow private partnerships but require CFE majority (≥54%) in joint investments, shaping contract design and bankability. Meanwhile grid modernization, storage and microgrids accelerate as industrial demand rises, making power availability a gating factor for plants.

Auto sector disruption and China competition

Chinese vehicle imports are surging, widening the China trade gap and intensifying pressure on local manufacturing. Government is courting Chinese investment (e.g., potential plant transfers) while considering trade defenses and new-energy-vehicle policy. Suppliers face localisation shifts, pricing pressure and policy uncertainty.