Trade policy alignment with US partners

Ongoing US–Taiwan trade and tariff frameworks and broader partner initiatives shape market access and rules of origin. Exporters should reassess tariff exposure, documentation, and sourcing, while investors monitor regulatory convergence in digital trade, standards, and customs facilitation.

EU trade defense and carbon measures

France supports tougher EU trade defense and climate-linked border measures (e.g., CBAM) amid tensions over Chinese industrial overcapacity. Businesses should expect more customs friction, documentation burdens for embedded carbon, and greater tariff/sanctions uncertainty in China-facing supply chains.

Capital markets opening and IPO wave

Tadawul’s broader opening to foreign investors aims to attract institutional inflows, adding depth to local funding options. For corporates, it supports dual listings, debt-equity raises, and M&A pricing—but governance, disclosure, and foreign ownership caps still shape deal structuring.

Weak growth and deindustrialisation

Germany’s economy remains stuck near 2019 output with private investment down ~11% since 2019 and unemployment above 3 million. Persistent cost, regulation and infrastructure constraints are pressuring manufacturing footprint decisions, supplier stability and demand forecasts.

Digital-government buildout and procurement

Government is accelerating cloud/AI adoption and “digital cleanup,” with digital-government development budget cited near 10bn baht for FY2027 and agencies targeting much higher IT spend. Opportunities rise for cloud, cybersecurity, and integration vendors, alongside procurement and interoperability risks.

Carbon border and ETS policy shifts

Changes to UK carbon pricing and the forthcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism raise exposure for heavy industry, particularly steel, with some estimates of carbon costs rising toward £250m by 2031 and higher later. Import competitiveness, pricing, and procurement strategies will shift.

Reconfiguración automotriz y China

Cierres y reestructuraciones abren espacio a fabricantes chinos. BYD y Geely buscan comprar la planta Nissan‑Mercedes (230.000 unidades/año) mientras México intenta aplazar inversiones chinas para no tensionar negociaciones con EE. UU.; impactos en cadenas regionales y compliance de origen.

Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.

Tariff volatility and trade blocs

Rapid, deal-linked tariff threats and selective rollbacks are making the U.S. a less predictable market-access environment, encouraging partners to deepen non‑U.S. trade blocs. Firms face higher landed costs, rerouted sourcing, and accelerated contract renegotiations.

China EV import quota tensions

A new arrangement allows up to 49,000 Chinese-made EVs annually at low duties, while excluding them from new rebates. This creates competitive pressure on domestic producers and raises security, standards, and political-risk concerns—potentially triggering U.S. retaliation or additional screening measures.

Industrial digital twins for energy

Finland’s energy-transition projects and grid investments are increasing uptake of simulation for power systems, heating networks and decarbonization planning. This supports consulting and software exports, but also elevates requirements for data quality, model validation, and regulatory-aligned reporting.

US trade talks and tariff risk

Vietnam is negotiating a more “reciprocal” trade framework with the US amid tariff pressure and scrutiny of Vietnam’s export surplus. Outcomes could reshape duties, rules-of-origin enforcement and supply-chain routing, affecting apparel, electronics, and China-plus-one strategies.

Electricity reform and grid bottlenecks

Load-shedding has eased, but transmission expansion is the binding constraint. Eskom’s plan targets ~14,000–14,500km of new lines by 2034 at ~R440bn; slow build rates risk delaying IPP projects, raising tariffs, and constraining industrial investment.

Escalating energy grid disruption

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are driving nationwide power rationing, forcing factory downtime, higher generator and fuel imports, and unstable cold-chain logistics. Grid repairs are slow due to scarce transformers and long lead times, raising operating costs and continuity risk.

Reconstruction, Seismic and Compliance Risk

Post‑earthquake reconstruction continues, with large public and PPP procurement and significant regulatory scrutiny. Companies face opportunities in construction materials, engineering and logistics, but must manage seismic-building codes, local permitting, anti-corruption controls and contractor capacity constraints in affected regions.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

Migration and visa integrity tightening

Australia is tightening migration settings and visa oversight, affecting talent pipelines. Skilled visa backlogs and stricter student ‘Genuine Student’ tests are increasing rejection and processing risk, while Home Affairs is considering tougher sponsor vetting after exploitation cases—raising HR compliance demands for employers.

India trade deals intensify competition

India’s new EU deal and evolving US tariff arrangements reduce Pakistan’s historical preference cushion, especially in textiles and made-ups. European and US buyers may renegotiate prices and lead times, pressuring margins and accelerating shifts toward higher value-add, reliability, and compliance performance.

Environmental licensing and ESG exposure

Congressional disputes over environmental licensing reforms and tighter deforestation scrutiny are increasing permitting uncertainty for infrastructure, mining and agribusiness. Exporters face rising compliance demands—especially linked to deforestation-free requirements—raising audit, traceability and contract-risk costs across supply chains.

Digital regulation targets big tech

Regulators are escalating scrutiny of platforms and AI: the ICO and Ofcom opened investigations into X/Grok, while CMA reforms and interventions aim for faster, more predictable merger and market oversight. International tech and investors should expect higher compliance costs and deal-execution uncertainty.

BoJ tightening and funding costs

Markets increasingly expect the BoJ to move from 0.75% toward ~1% by mid-2026, balancing inflation, wages and yen weakness. Higher domestic rates raise corporate funding costs, reprice real estate and infrastructure finance, and alter cross-border carry-trade dynamics.

EV and battery chain geopoliticization

China’s dominance in batteries and EV components is triggering stricter foreign procurement rules and tariffs. New “foreign entity of concern” screening and higher Section 301 tariffs are reshaping project economics, pushing earlier diligence on origin/ownership and boosting demand for non‑China cell, BESS and recycling capacity.

Tax policy and capital gains timing

The federal government deferred implementation of higher capital gains inclusion to 2026, creating near-term planning windows for exits, restructurings, and inbound investment. Uncertainty over final rules still affects valuation, deal timing, and compensation design.

War-risk insurance capacity expands

New DFC-backed war-risk reinsurance facilities (e.g., $25 million capacity supporting up to $100 million limits) are gradually improving insurability for assets and cargo in Ukraine. Better coverage can unlock FDI and reconstruction contracts, but pricing, exclusions, and geographic limits remain tight.

Security, service delivery, labour disruption

Persistent crime and intermittent municipal service breakdowns—waste collection stoppages, water-utility strikes, and power-substation incidents—create operational risk for sites, staff mobility and last-mile distribution. Businesses increasingly budget for private security, redundancy, and contractual force-majeure safeguards.

Mining push and critical minerals

Saudi is positioning mining as a “third pillar,” citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and new investment frameworks emphasizing transparency and ESG. Opportunities rise in exploration, processing and fertilizer/aluminum chains, while permitting, water use, and ESG scrutiny remain key risks.

Industrial carbon pricing competitiveness

Canada is adjusting industrial carbon pricing to cut emissions while protecting competitiveness, with implications for energy-intensive exporters facing EU/other carbon-border measures. Policy design affects operating costs, capital allocation, and product-market access strategy.

FX volatility and yen defense

Yen weakness and intervention signalling (rate checks, possible US coordination) heighten hedging costs and pricing uncertainty for importers/exporters. Policy risk rises around election-driven fiscal expectations, complicating repatriation, procurement contracts, and Japan-based treasury management.

BRICS payments push sanctions exposure

Brazil’s joint statement with Russia criticising unilateral sanctions and promoting local-currency settlement comes as bilateral trade reached US$10.9bn in 2025. Firms must strengthen sanctions screening, banking counterparties and shipping/insurance checks to avoid secondary-sanctions and compliance disruptions.

FX stabilization under IMF program

Record reserves (about $52.6bn) and falling inflation support a more stable pound and prospective rate cuts, anchored by IMF reviews and disbursements. However, policy slippage could revive parallel-market pressures, affecting pricing, profit repatriation, and import financing.

EIB Lending Returns, Project Pipeline

The gradual resumption of European Investment Bank operations—reported with €200m earmarked for renewable energy—signals improving European financing access. This can catalyze infrastructure, green industrial upgrades and supplier capacity expansion, while raising compliance expectations on procurement, ESG and governance standards.

Tariffs and China tech controls

Washington is tightening trade defenses via higher tariffs and expanding export controls, especially around semiconductors and China-linked supply chains. Companies should expect cost volatility, licensing risk, and compliance burdens, plus accelerated “friend-shoring” and domestic-content requirements for critical technologies.

Energy diversification and LNG deals

Germany is locking in alternative LNG and storage partnerships, including agreements for up to 1 million tonnes/year LNG for up to 10 years and up to 2 GW battery storage investments. This supports security but embeds exposure to global LNG price cycles and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Reciprocal tariff regime expansion

Executive-order “reciprocal” tariffs are being used as a standing leverage tool, illustrated by the U.S.–India framework moving to an 18% reciprocal rate and conditional removals. Firms face volatile landed costs, origin rules scrutiny, and partner-specific dealmaking risk.

Weather shocks and Jones Act constraints

Severe freezes can disrupt US oil and gas output (estimates up to 25 Bcf/day), forcing LNG imports despite exporter status; Jones Act limits domestic LNG shipping. International buyers and US-linked supply chains should expect episodic price spikes and logistics bottlenecks.

Local content and procurement localisation

PIF’s local-content drive exceeds ~US$157bn, with contractor participation reported at ~67% in 2025 and expanding pipelines of platform-listed opportunities. International suppliers face higher localisation, JV, and in-Kingdom value-add requirements (e.g., IKTVA-style terms) to win contracts.