Energy supply and gas export volatility

Security assessments can halt offshore gas production (e.g., Leviathan/Energean), tightening domestic power margins and affecting gas exports to regional buyers. Industrial users may face fuel switching, price volatility, and contractual disputes, complicating energy‑intensive manufacturing and investment planning.

Forestry downturn and lumber dispute

Softwood lumber faces punishing U.S. import taxes around 45%, pressuring mills, employment and rural logistics. Provincial relief programs aim to ease cash flow, but prolonged trade friction raises counterparty risk for timber supply contracts and construction-material supply chains.

Cost competitiveness in processing

Battery-chemical and metals processing in Australia faces high energy, labour and compliance costs versus China, highlighted by a US$4–5/kg lithium hydroxide cost gap. Expect stronger demands for subsidies, price bifurcation, and contract structures rewarding provenance.

EU–China EV trade recalibration

Europe’s anti-subsidy EV regime is shifting toward “price undertakings” with minimum import prices, quotas, and EU investment pledges. This creates a new pathway for China-made EVs while adding compliance complexity, affecting automotive sourcing, JV structures, and market-access strategy.

Technology choke points and import dependence

Russia’s import-substitution ambitions lag, with critical reliance on imported high-tech inputs and microchips increasingly sourced from China (reported around 90%). Export controls on dual-use items and advanced computing constrain modernization, heighten supply risk, and create single‑supplier dependency vulnerabilities.

US tariff and deal volatility

Post–Supreme Court tariff resets keep Korea exposed to shifting U.S. tools (Sections 122/301/232). Seoul’s $350B U.S. investment-linked framework aims to stabilize 15% tariffs, but legislative timing and sector probes raise ongoing pricing, contract, and planning risk.

Energy Supply Shock Exposure

Middle East conflict risk is testing Taiwan’s import dependence and price stability. Taiwan holds >100 days oil and >11 days gas reserves, but LNG sourcing disruptions can raise power costs. Government pursues diversification and spot purchases, affecting industrial electricity pricing.

Labor enforcement, expat hiring costs

Revised labor penalties include SAR10,000 for hiring non-Saudis without permits, SAR1,000 per worker for contract e-documentation failures, and heavy unauthorized recruitment fines up to SAR250,000. This raises compliance risk and may increase labor costs amid Saudization targets.

Arctic LNG logistics under attack

The explosion and sinking of an Arctic LNG 2-linked carrier highlights physical security risks to Russia’s LNG shadow fleet. Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 is already constrained by limited ships, operating near 30% capacity; rerouting via Cape of Good Hope could add weeks and tighten tonnage.

Cross-border data transfer liberalization

Indonesia’s ART commitments support cross‑border data flows with protections, prohibit forced tech transfer or source‑code disclosure, and back the WTO e‑transmissions duty moratorium. This improves operating certainty for cloud, fintech, and e‑commerce, while PDP compliance remains.

Halal rules uncertainty for imports

ART annexes propose halal certification/labeling exemptions for some US cosmetics, medical devices and selected goods, triggering domestic backlash from MUI/LPPOM and potential WTO non-discrimination challenges. Importers and FMCG/healthcare firms face shifting labeling, certification costs and reputational sensitivities.

Energy export rerouting and discounts

Crude and product flows keep shifting toward China, India and Türkiye, often at deeper discounts; Urals’ Baltic discount to Brent widened to about $28/bbl. Buyers face tightening due diligence, price-cap uncertainty, and higher freight/ice costs, impacting refining margins and supply security.

US Tariff Volatility, Deal Reset

US Supreme Court curtailed emergency tariffs, replaced by temporary 10–15% global surcharge under Section 122, complicating the India–US interim trade pact. Export pricing, contracts, and compliance face uncertainty; sectoral Section 232 duties still penalise metals, autos.

Débat UE sur marché électricité

La hausse du gaz relance la controverse sur la formation des prix électriques en Europe (mécanisme marginal). Industriels et certains États demandent réforme; d’autres veulent préserver la réforme 2024. Enjeu pour contrats long terme, PPA, compétitivité industrielle et arbitrages localisation.

Nickel quota cuts reshape supply

Pemerintah memangkas kuota bijih nikel RKAB 2026 menjadi 260–270 juta ton dari 379 juta (2025), memicu potensi defisit hingga ~130 juta ton dan utilisasi smelter turun 70–75%. Risiko impor naik, biaya bahan baku meningkat, kontrak offtake tertekan.

US tariffs and FTA volatility

Rapidly shifting US tariff regimes after court rulings and temporary 10–15% surcharges are forcing Indian exporters to reprice contracts, diversify markets, and revisit the interim India–US deal; parallel EU FTA opportunities still face heavy non‑tariff measures like CBAM compliance burdens.

Infraestructura Istmo interoceánico

El Corredor Interoceánico del Istmo de Tehuantepec avanza como alternativa logística al Canal de Panamá. Proyecto ~300 km, objetivo cruce en <6 horas y capacidad estimada 1.4M TEU/año; acuerdos con Europa (Sines) buscan habilitar flujos energéticos y de contenedores.

Energy price pass-through inflation

Oil and LNG price spikes quickly feed Korea’s power and industrial costs; LNG is ~28% of electricity generation. Higher JKM and crude-indexed contracts can lift wholesale power prices and strain Kepco/Kogas finances, increasing probability of tariff hikes and cost-push inflation.

EU partnership on minerals and chips

The EU plans deeper cooperation with Vietnam on critical minerals, semiconductors, and ‘trusted’ 5G, alongside infrastructure investment. Vietnam’s rare earth and gallium potential and its chip packaging base could attract higher-value FDI, but governance, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain binding.

Fiscal consolidation and sovereign outlook

Improving revenues and tighter deficits are supporting bonds and the rand, with debt stabilisation near ~79% of GDP and potential ratings outlook upgrades. However, slow growth and infrastructure backlogs limit policy space, affecting tax certainty, public investment, and payment risk.

Baht volatility and hedging pressure

The baht is experiencing high volatility driven by USD moves, gold-price swings, capital flows, and domestic politics. Banks warn SMEs hedging only ~50% of FX liabilities may be insufficient amid 7–8% volatility; BOT intervention nears 1.8–1.9% of GDP, nearing scrutiny thresholds.

Digital sovereignty and regulated cloud

France is pushing sovereign cloud and tighter control of sensitive data for regulated sectors, reinforced by EU rules (AI Act, NIS2, DORA) and French qualification schemes. Multinationals may need EU-based processing, vendor changes, and new contracting for AI and cloud workloads.

Biosecurity compliance tightening for imports

Recent DAFF updates add clarified triggers for electronic biosecurity notices and stricter handling of returned meat consignments requiring permits. Importers face higher documentation precision, potential border delays, and elevated spoilage risk in agri-food supply chains.

Maritime and logistics rerouting shocks

Regional and Middle East security events have prompted Taiwanese carriers to suspend some routes and raise operational caution, increasing lead times and freight costs. Exporters/importers should plan alternative lanes, diversify forwarders, and renegotiate Incoterms and force‑majeure clauses.

China–US strategic competition spillovers

Indonesia’s nickel dominance (>60% of global mine supply) is now central to US–China rivalry. US access initiatives and Indonesia’s tightening control could prompt China to adjust investment/technology transfers. Multinationals should stress-test supply chains for retaliation and geopolitical compliance risk.

Aviation resilience and competition risk

Regulators are tightening oversight after wartime capacity shocks: El Al faces a potential NIS 121m fine for ‘excessive’ pricing when its share exceeded 50–70% after Oct. 7. Route availability, fares, and travel-risk policies remain sensitive for multinationals.

Defense spending and fiscal trajectory

Supplementary defense budgets and higher deficit targets may redirect public spending, raise borrowing needs, and reshape procurement. Opportunities rise for defense suppliers, but civilian infrastructure timelines, tax policy, and sovereign-risk perceptions can shift quickly.

Geopolitical shocks disrupting shipping

US-Israel strikes on Iran and heightened Red Sea/Hormuz risk are driving carrier reroutes, war-risk premiums and emergency surcharges, tightening air cargo capacity and lengthening voyages. US importers face higher freight rates, longer lead times, and inventory/working-capital pressure.

Growing IT and services exports

IT exports rose ~20% YoY to $2.6bn in 7MFY26, with FY26 targets of $4.5–$5bn. This supports FX earnings and creates opportunities in outsourcing, fintech, and digital infrastructure, while requiring clearer regulation, payments reliability, and data/security compliance.

China exposure and de-risking

Germany’s export model faces a sharper ‘China shock’: imports rise while market access and competition concerns grow. Business groups cite intervention and uneven competition; dependence on rare earths persists. Expect tougher screening, diversification, and higher supply-chain resilience costs.

AML tightening after FATF exit

Following removal from the FATF grey list (Oct 2025), authorities are intensifying compliance: crypto “travel rule”, proposed fines up to 10% of turnover for beneficial-ownership noncompliance, and potential public registers. Expect higher KYC costs but improved bankability.

Competition enforcement in platforms

Israel’s Competition Authority is challenging dominant platform models, signaling tougher antitrust. Wolt may lose its exemption for operating both a delivery platform and its own grocery retail chain, potentially forcing divestment—reshaping last-mile logistics, pricing, and retail partnerships.

Energy import dependence and LNG surge

Taiwan’s trade deal embeds large 2025–2029 purchase commitments, including about US$44.4B in LNG/crude and US$25.2B in power-grid equipment. This signals accelerated energy-security investment but reinforces import exposure, affecting electricity costs, PPAs, and industrial siting decisions.

Renewables buildout cost pressures

Offshore wind development continues but with sharply rising materials and construction costs; JERA’s 315 MW Akita project targets 2028 start-up. Higher capex and supply constraints may slow auctions, reshape PPA pricing, and affect localization plans for turbine supply chains.

Foreign procurement access loosening

Saudi Arabia reversed parts of the regional-headquarters procurement restriction, enabling foreign firms to win government contracts via controlled exemptions on Etimad. This improves near-term market access for specialized suppliers, but bid-acceptance conditions and compliance documentation remain stringent.

BOJ tightening and yen volatility

The BOJ may hike as early as March if yen weakness persists, with markets pricing further normalization from 0.75% toward higher rates. Yen swings reshape import costs, export competitiveness, and hedging needs; financing conditions may tighten for SMEs and supply-chain partners.