Accelerating LNG exports and permitting

The administration is fast-tracking U.S. energy production and LNG export approvals, reshaping global gas supply and contracting. Cheniere filed for a major Corpus Christi expansion to ~49 mtpa; U.S. LNG exports were ~111 mtpa in 2025, with ~100 mtpa more under construction for 2027–2030.

Energy mix permitting and local opposition

While no renewables moratorium is planned, the PPE points to slower onshore wind/solar and prioritizes repowering to reduce local conflicts. Permitting risk and community opposition can delay projects, affecting PPAs, factory decarbonization plans, and ESG delivery timelines.

Electricity tariffs and affordability squeeze

Large-user electricity tariffs are cited as up ~970% since 2007, with further hikes expected, while government plans a revised pricing policy in 2026. Higher operating costs and energy poverty pressures can hit mining, manufacturing margins, and project bankability.

إصدارات دولية وضغوط خدمة الدين

الحكومة تخطط لإصدار سندات دولية بنحو 2 مليار دولار خلال النصف الثاني من 2025/2026 مع هدف إبقاء الإصدارات دون 4 مليارات سنوياً. في المقابل، بلغت خدمة الدين الخارجي 38.7 مليار دولار في 2024/2025، ما يعزز مخاطر إعادة التمويل وتكلفة رأس المال.

External debt rollovers, FX buffers

Pakistan’s reliance on short-term bilateral rollovers and Chinese commercial loans keeps reserves fragile; a recent $700m repayment cut gross reserves to about $15.5bn. Tight buffers raise devaluation risk, restrict profit repatriation and disrupt import-dependent supply chains.

Semiconductor Mission 2.0 push

India Semiconductor Mission 2.0 prioritizes equipment, materials, indigenous IP and supply-chain depth, building on ~₹1.6 lakh crore in approved projects. Customs duty waivers on capex reduce entry costs, supporting chip packaging, OSAT and design ecosystems that affect tech supply chains.

Tariff shocks and legal flux

U.S. tariff policy remains fluid after court challenges and new temporary surcharges, while Mexico imposed 5%–50% tariffs on 1,463 Chinese-linked tariff lines from 2026. Companies face price-pass-through risk, reclassification scrutiny, and a rising premium on documentation and origin strategy.

Air defence shortages constrain continuity

Interceptor shortages—especially PAC-3 for Patriot—reduce protection of cities, ports and factories, increasing business interruption and asset-damage risk. Ukraine reports near-empty launchers at times; partners are scrambling to deliver missiles from stockpiles. Insurance, project timelines and onsite staffing remain volatile.

Macroeconomic recovery and rate cuts

Inflation has eased to around 1.8% with a stronger shekel, reopening scope for Bank of Israel rate cuts. Cheaper financing may support investment, yet currency strength can squeeze exporters and pricing, influencing hedging strategies and contract denomination choices.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Immigration rule overhaul and labour supply

Proposals to extend settlement timelines (typically five to ten years, longer for some visa routes) plus intensified sponsor enforcement create uncertainty for employers reliant on skilled migrants, notably health and social care. Expect higher compliance costs, churn, and wage pressure.

Chip supply-chain reshoring pressure

Washington is pushing Taiwan to expand US semiconductor capacity, with floated targets up to 40% and threats of sharp tariff hikes if unmet. Taipei says large-scale relocation is “impossible,” implying sustained negotiation risk, capex uncertainty, and bifurcated production footprints for customers.

Rupiah volatility and import costs

The rupiah’s depreciation episodes and tight monetary stance can raise hedging costs and complicate pricing for import-dependent sectors. Businesses should expect periodic FX-driven margin pressure, potential administrative frictions, and greater emphasis on local sourcing and USD liquidity management.

Strategic transport assets under scrutiny

Proposed sale of ZIM to Hapag-Lloyd (~$3.5–4bn) triggered strikes and government review via a “golden share.” Heightened state intervention risk in logistics and critical infrastructure could affect foreign M&A approvals, continuity planning, and emergency supply obligations.

Fraud warnings pressure onboarding controls

Recurring FCA warnings on unauthorised online trading sites highlight persistent retail fraud. Regulated platforms face rising expectations on KYC, scam detection, customer communications and complaints handling, while banks and PSPs may tighten de-risking of higher-risk flows.

Critical minerals export leverage

China’s export controls and temporary suspensions on metals such as gallium, germanium and antimony highlight near‑monopoly positions (around 99% of primary gallium). Multinationals face procurement shocks, price spikes, and stronger incentives to dual‑source, redesign products, and localize processing.

Fachkräfte, Visa-Digitalisierung, Demografie

Arbeitskräftemangel bleibt ein operatives Kernrisiko. Reformen (Skilled Immigration/Chancenkarte) und neue digitale Visa-Prozesse sollen Rekrutierung beschleunigen, doch Engpässe in MINT, Pflege und Bau wirken auf Projektlaufzeiten, Lohnkosten und Standortwahl; Nearshoring und Automatisierung gewinnen an Bedeutung.

Ports and logistics labor uncertainty

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to port and transport labor negotiations and anti-automation disputes, increasing disruption risk at key gateways. Importers may diversify ports, adjust routing, and carry higher safety stock, especially when tariff timing triggers demand spikes and front-loading behavior.

Section 232 national-security tariffs

Section 232 tools remain active beyond steel and aluminum, with investigations spanning pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, aircraft, and more. Even where partner deals grant partial relief, uncertainty around scope and timing complicates long-term supplier selection and U.S. market pricing strategies.

Tight fiscal headroom and tax risk

Economists warn the Chancellor’s budget headroom has already eroded despite about £26bn in tax rises, raising odds of further revenue measures. Corporate planning must factor potential changes to NI, allowances, subsidies, and public procurement priorities.

Risco fiscal e dívida crescente

Déficits persistentes e exceções ao arcabouço fiscal elevam o prêmio de risco. A dívida federal chegou a R$ 8,64 tri em 2025 (+18%), com projeções de até R$ 10,3 tri em 2026, pressionando câmbio, juros e custo de capital.

US trade deal and tariffs

Vietnam is negotiating a “reciprocal” trade agreement with the US as its 2025 surplus hit about US$133.8bn, raising tariff and transshipment scrutiny. Outcomes will shape market access, rules of origin compliance, and investor decisions on Vietnam-based export platforms.

Logistics and labor disruption risk

US port throughput remains vulnerable to labor negotiations and regulatory constraints, amplifying shipment lead-time uncertainty. Any East/Gulf or West Coast disruptions would quickly cascade into inland transport, retail inventories, and just-in-time manufacturing, raising safety-stock and premium freight costs.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

Logistics and multimodal corridor buildout

Budget-linked infrastructure plans emphasize freight corridors, inland waterways and port connectivity to cut transit times and logistics costs. For global manufacturers, improved hinterland access can expand viable plant locations, though land acquisition, project execution and state capacity remain key risks.

Climate law and carbon pricing momentum

Thailand is advancing a first comprehensive Climate Change Act, with carbon-pricing and emissions-trading elements discussed in public reporting. Exporters to the EU and other low-carbon markets will face rising MRV and product-footprint demands, influencing supplier selection and capex.

Border infrastructure leverage risk

U.S. threats to restrict the Canada-funded Gordie Howe Detroit–Windsor bridge highlight how critical crossings can become bargaining chips. With Detroit handling about US$126B in truck trade value, any disruption could delay just-in-time supply chains and raise logistics costs.

Weather shocks and Jones Act constraints

Severe freezes can disrupt US oil and gas output (estimates up to 25 Bcf/day), forcing LNG imports despite exporter status; Jones Act limits domestic LNG shipping. International buyers and US-linked supply chains should expect episodic price spikes and logistics bottlenecks.

Budget 2026 capex-led growth

Union Budget 2026–27 targets a 4.3% fiscal deficit with ₹12.2 lakh crore capex, prioritizing roads, rail corridors, waterways, and urban zones. Expect improved project pipelines and demand, but also procurement scrutiny and execution risk across states.

Foreign investment scrutiny and CFIUS

Elevated national-security screening of foreign acquisitions and sensitive real-estate/technology deals increases transaction timelines and remedies risk. Cross-border investors should expect greater diligence, mitigation agreements, and sectoral red lines in semiconductors, data, defense-adjacent manufacturing, and critical infrastructure.

Financial fragmentation and crypto rails

Russia-linked actors are expanding alternative payment channels, including ruble-linked crypto instruments and third-country gateways, while EU/UK target crypto platforms to close circumvention. For businesses, settlement risk rises: blocked transfers, enhanced KYC/AML scrutiny, and sudden counterparty de-risking by banks and exchanges.

Maritime logistics and ZIM uncertainty

A potential sale of ZIM to Hapag-Lloyd and resulting labor action highlight sensitivity around strategic shipping capacity. Any prolonged strike, regulatory intervention via the state’s “golden share,” or ownership change could affect Israel-related capacity, rates, and emergency logistics planning.

Tokenised gilts and DSS scaling

UK is piloting tokenised government bonds (DIGIT) using HSBC’s blockchain within the Digital Securities Sandbox, advancing on-chain settlement. This could reshape post-trade workflows, collateral mobility, and vendor selection for brokerages and investment platforms serving global clients.

Energy strategy pivots nuclear-led

The new 10‑year energy plan (PPE3) prioritizes nuclear with six EPR2 reactors (first by 2038) and aims existing fleet output around 380–420 TWh by 2030–2035. Lower wind/solar targets add policy risk for power‑purchase strategies and electrification investments.

Undersea cable and cyber resilience

Taiwan’s connectivity relies heavily on subsea cables and faces recurrent cyber pressure. New initiatives to harden cables and telecoms signal operational risk for cloud, finance, and BPO services; companies should diversify routes, enhance redundancy, and test incident response.

Security, service delivery, labour disruption

Persistent crime and intermittent municipal service breakdowns—waste collection stoppages, water-utility strikes, and power-substation incidents—create operational risk for sites, staff mobility and last-mile distribution. Businesses increasingly budget for private security, redundancy, and contractual force-majeure safeguards.