Logistics build-out and trade corridors

Ports and inland logistics are expanding, including new logistics zones and rail growth supporting freight and mining flows. Saudi Railways moved ~30m tons of freight in 2025, reducing trucking dependence. Improves supply-chain resilience, but project phasing and permitting remain execution risks.

War-risk insurance capacity expands

New DFC-backed war-risk reinsurance facilities (e.g., $25 million capacity supporting up to $100 million limits) are gradually improving insurability for assets and cargo in Ukraine. Better coverage can unlock FDI and reconstruction contracts, but pricing, exclusions, and geographic limits remain tight.

Talent constraints and foreign hiring policy

Labor shortages in manufacturing and high-tech intensify competition for engineers and skilled technicians. Policy tweaks to attract foreign talent and expand foreign-worker quotas can help, but firms should plan for wage pressure, retention costs, and slower ramp-ups for new capacity.

Green hydrogen export corridors

Projects like ACWA’s Yanbu green hydrogen/ammonia hub (FEED due mid-2026; operations targeted 2030) and planned Saudi–Germany ammonia logistics corridors could create new trade flows. Businesses should assess offtake contracts, certification standards, and port-to-port infrastructure readiness.

Ports congestion and export delays

Transnet port performance remains among the world’s worst, with Cape Town fruit export backlogs reported around R1 billion amid wind stoppages, aging cranes, and staffing issues. Unreliable port throughput increases demurrage, spoils perishables, and disrupts contract delivery schedules.

AML/CTF bar for crypto access

FCA registration milestones (e.g., Blockchain.com) show continued selectivity under UK Money Laundering Regulations. Firms need robust CDD, transaction monitoring, record-keeping and senior-manager accountability, influencing partner bank access and cross-border onboarding scalability.

Domestic demand pivot and policy easing

Beijing is prioritizing consumption-led growth in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30), targeting final consumption above 90 trillion yuan and ~60% of GDP. The PBOC signals “moderately loose” policy and ample liquidity. Impacts include shifting sector opportunities toward services and consumer subsidies.

External financing rollover dependence

Short-term bilateral rollovers (e.g., UAE’s $2bn deposit extended at 6.5% to April 2026) underscore fragile external buffers. Debt-service needs and refinancing risk can trigger FX volatility, capital controls, delayed profit repatriation, and higher country risk premia.

Currency collapse and inflation shock

The rial’s rapid depreciation and high inflation undermine pricing, working capital, and import affordability, driving ad hoc controls and payment delays. Businesses face FX convertibility risk, volatile local demand, and greater reliance on barter, intermediaries, and informal settlement channels.

Section 232 national-security investigations

Section 232 remains a broad, fast-moving trade instrument spanning sectors like pharmaceuticals/ingredients, semiconductors and autos/parts. Outcomes can create sudden tariffs, quotas or TRQs (as seen in U.S.–India auto-parts quota talks), complicating procurement and pricing strategies.

Rule-of-law and governance uncertainty

Heightened tensions between government and judiciary raise concerns about institutional independence and regulatory predictability. For investors, this can affect contract enforceability perceptions, dispute resolution confidence, and ESG assessments, influencing cost of capital and FDI appetite.

Nonbank credit and private markets substitution

As banks pull back, private credit and direct lenders fill financing gaps, often at higher spreads and with tighter covenants. This shifts refinancing risk to less transparent markets, raising cost of capital for midmarket firms that anchor US supply chains and overseas procurement networks.

Water security and municipal failures

Urban and industrial water reliability is deteriorating amid aging infrastructure and governance gaps. Non-revenue water is about 47.4% (leaks ~40.8%); the rehabilitation backlog is estimated near R400bn versus a ~R26bn 2025/26 budget, disrupting production, hygiene, and workforce continuity.

Ports and rail logistics bottlenecks

Transnet’s recovery is uneven: rail volumes are improving, but vandalism and underinvestment keep capacity fragile. Port congestion—such as Cape Town’s fruit-export backlog near R1bn—threatens time-sensitive shipments, raises demurrage, and pushes costly rerouting across supply chains.

Higher-for-longer rates uncertainty

With inflation easing but still above target, markets and Fed officials signal patience; rate paths remain sensitive to tariff pass-through and data disruptions. Borrowing costs and USD moves affect investment hurdle rates, M&A financing, and the competitiveness of US-based production and exports.

Mining investment and regulatory drag

South Africa risks missing the next commodity cycle as exploration spending remains weak—under 1% of global exploration capital—amid policy uncertainty and infrastructure constraints. Rail and port underperformance directly reduces realized mineral export volumes, raising unit costs and deterring greenfield projects.

LNG Export Expansion and Permitting Shifts

US LNG capacity is expanding rapidly; Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 4 filing would lift site capacity to ~49 mtpa, while US exports reached ~111 mtpa in 2025. Faster approvals support long‑term supply, but oversupply and policy swings create price and contract‑tenor risk.

Critical minerals and rare earth push

India is building rare earth mineral corridors and magnet incentives (₹7,280 crore) to cut reliance on China (over 45% of needs). Tariff cuts on monazite and processing inputs support downstream EV/renewables supply chains, but execution and permitting remain key risks.

Bahnnetz-Sanierung stört Logistik

Großbaustellen bei der Bahn (u.a. Köln–Hagen monatelang gesperrt) verlängern Laufzeiten im Personen- und Güterverkehr und erhöhen Ausweichkosten. Für internationale Lieferketten steigen Pufferbedarf, Lagerhaltung und multimodale Planung; zugleich bleibt die Finanzierung langfristiger Netzmodernisierung unsicher.

IMF programme and macro conditionality

Late-February IMF review will determine release of a $1bn EFF tranche, shaping FX reserves, taxation, privatisation and monetary policy. Policy slippage risks renewed import controls, payment delays and currency volatility that directly affect trade finance and investor confidence.

Rising funding costs, liquidity swings

Short-term liquidity tightened around Tet, pushing interbank rates sharply higher and prompting widespread deposit-rate hikes; Agribank lifted longer tenors up to 6%. Higher financing costs can squeeze working capital, pressure leveraged sectors, and raise hurdle rates for projects.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

Tougher sanctions enforcement compliance

Germany is tightening EU-sanctions enforcement after uncovering ~16,000 illicit Russia-bound shipments worth about €30m. Legislative reforms criminalize more violations and raise corporate penalties up to 5% of global turnover, increasing due‑diligence, screening and audit burdens.

EU–China trade frictions spillover

France is a key voice backing tougher EU trade defenses, including on China-made EVs; Beijing has signaled potential retaliation such as probes into French wine. Firms should stress-test tariffs, customs delays and reputational exposure across France‑EU‑China supply chains.

Energy security via long LNG

Japan is locking in long-duration LNG supply, including a 27-year JERA–QatarEnergy deal for ~3 Mtpa from 2028 and potential Japanese equity in Qatar’s North Field South. This supports power reliability for data centers/semiconductors but reduces fuel flexibility via destination clauses.

China competition drives trade sensitivity

Rapid gains by Chinese EV brands across Europe heighten sensitivity around battery and component imports, pricing, and potential defensive measures. For France-based battery projects, this raises volatility in demand forecasts, OEM sourcing strategies, and exposure to EU trade actions.

US tariffs hit German exports

New US tariff measures are reducing German competitiveness: exports to the US fell 9.3% in 2025 to ~€147bn and the bilateral surplus narrowed to €52.2bn. Firms should reassess pricing, localization and route-to-market for North America.

Reconstruction-driven infrastructure demand

Three years after the 2023 quakes, authorities report 455,000 housing/commercial units delivered, while multilateral lenders like EBRD invested €2.7bn in 2025, including wastewater and sewage projects. Construction, materials, logistics and engineering opportunities remain, with execution and procurement risks.

E-Auto-Förderung und Autowandel

Die Regierung reaktiviert E-Auto-Subventionen (1.500–6.000 €, ca. 3 Mrd. €, bis zu 800.000 Fahrzeuge). Das stabilisiert Nachfrage, beeinflusst Flottenentscheidungen und Zulieferketten. Gleichzeitig verschärfen EU-Klimaziele und Konkurrenz aus China Preisdruck, Lokalisierung und Technologietransfer-Debatten.

China-border trade integration risks

Northern localities and China’s Guangxi are expanding cross-border trade, e-commerce and agri flows; Guangxi-Vietnam agri trade reached ~CNY18.23bn in 2025. Benefits include faster market access, but firms must manage geopolitical exposure, border policy shifts, and compliance with origin/traceability.

Maritime security and tanker seizures

Washington is weighing direct seizure of Iranian oil tankers in international waters, while Iran has seized foreign‑crewed vessels near Farsi Island. This elevates war-risk premiums, route diversions and force‑majeure clauses for Gulf trade, impacting energy, chemicals and container flows through Hormuz.

Natural gas expansion, export pathways

Offshore gas output remains a strategic stabilizer; new long-term contracts and export infrastructure (including links to Egypt) advance regional energy trade. For industry, this supports power reliability and petrochemicals, but geopolitical interruptions and regulatory directives can still trigger temporary shutdowns.

PPP privatization pipeline expansion

A new National Privatization Strategy targets 220+ PPP contracts by 2030 and over $64bn (SAR240bn) private capex across transport, water, health, education and airports. This expands investable infrastructure, but requires tight bid compliance, local partners, and long-term risk pricing.

Sanctions-linked energy procurement risk

U.S. tariff relief is tied to India curbing Russian crude purchases, with monitoring and possible tariff snapback. Refiners face contractual lock-ins and limited alternatives (e.g., Nayara). Energy-intensive sectors should plan for price volatility and sanctions compliance.

Business investment drag and policy uncertainty

UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025 and business investment fell nearly 3%, the biggest drop since early 2021, amid budget uncertainty. Multinationals should expect cautious capex, softer demand, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory or political shocks.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Preparations for the USMCA/CUSMA joint review are colliding with renewed U.S. tariff threats on autos, steel, aluminum and other goods, raising compliance and pricing risk for integrated North American supply chains and cross-border investment planning.