Strategic ports and infrastructure sovereignty

Moves to return the Port of Darwin to Australian control highlight rising “sovereignty screening” over logistics assets. Investors in ports, airports, energy and telecoms should expect tougher national-interest tests, deal delays, and possible renegotiation or compensation disputes impacting valuations.

Energy security and LNG contracting

Shrinking domestic gas output and delayed petroleum-law amendments increase reliance on LNG; gas supplies roughly 60% of power generation. PTT, Egat and Gulf are locking long-term LNG deals (15-year contracts, 0.8–1.0 mtpa). Electricity-price volatility and industrial costs remain key.

Demographic Drag and Labor Market Shifts

China’s population declined by 3.39 million in 2025, with a record-low birth rate and 23% of citizens over 60. This demographic shift pressures the labor force, social security, and long-term growth, forcing businesses to adapt to a rapidly aging consumer base.

Geopolitical Risks and Regional Diplomacy

Egypt’s proximity to regional conflicts, especially Gaza and Sudan, creates persistent geopolitical risks. Diplomatic efforts focus on regional stability, but disruptions can impact trade, investment sentiment, and supply chains, especially via the Suez Canal and border regions.

Congress agenda and regulatory churn

Congress’ 2026 restart includes major veto votes affecting tax reform regulation and environmental licensing. A campaign-driven legislature raises probability of abrupt rule changes, delayed implementing decrees and litigation, complicating permitting timelines and compliance planning for foreign investors.

US-Israel Policy Divergence on Reconstruction

Tensions between the US and Israel over the pace and conditions of Gaza’s reconstruction and demilitarization are intensifying. Divergent priorities—US emphasis on rapid rebuilding versus Israel’s insistence on security preconditions—create policy uncertainty, complicating the operating environment for international businesses.

US Sanctions and Trade Risks

South Africa faces potential US financial sanctions and exclusion from trade agreements like AGOA, which could trigger capital flight, currency devaluation, and higher borrowing costs. These risks create significant uncertainty for foreign investors and multinational supply chains.

Sanctions and secondary tariff enforcement

U.S. sanctions policy is broadening beyond entity listings toward “secondary” trade pressure, increasing exposure for banks, shippers, and manufacturers tied to Iran/Russia-linked trade flows. Businesses face higher screening costs, disrupted payment channels, and potential retaliatory measures from partners.

OPEC+ Policy Ensures Oil Market Stability

Saudi Arabia, as a leading OPEC+ member, is maintaining oil output levels through March 2026 amid rising prices and geopolitical tensions. This policy supports market stability but also signals caution, impacting global energy supply chains and price forecasting for international businesses.

Tariff volatility and litigation

Aggressive, frequently revised tariffs—often justified under emergency authorities—are raising input costs and retail prices while chilling capex. Ongoing court challenges, including a pending Supreme Court ruling, create material uncertainty for exporters, importers, and contract pricing through 2026.

FX liquidity and import compression

Foreign-exchange availability and rupee volatility continue to shape import licensing, payment timelines, and working-capital needs. Even with gradual reserve improvements, firms face episodic restrictions and higher hedging costs, affecting machinery, chemicals, and intermediate inputs critical to export supply chains.

Digital regulation tightening for platforms

Australia’s under‑16 social media ban (fines up to A$49.5m) and broader eSafety scrutiny are forcing stronger age assurance, content controls and reporting. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, data-handling risk, and potential service changes affecting marketing, customer support and HR.

Energy roadmap: nuclear-led electrification

The long-delayed PPE energy plan will be issued by decree, aiming to lift electricity to 60% of energy use by 2030. It backs six new EPR reactors (eight optional) plus renewables, shaping power prices, grid investment, and industrial site decisions.

Internet shutdowns and digital controls

Near-total internet blackouts and tighter censorship have cut businesses off from customers, suppliers, and payments, with reported losses from millions to tens of millions of dollars per day. Expect unreliable connectivity, mandatory use of domestic platforms, and elevated cybersecurity exposure.

Energy security and LNG logistics

PGN began supplying LNG cargoes from Tangguh Papua to the FSRU Jawa Barat, supporting power and industrial demand with distribution capacity up to 100 MMSCFD. Greater LNG reliance improves near-term supply resilience, but exposes users to shipping, price-indexation, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Cross-strait security and blockade risk

Escalating PLA air‑sea operations and Taiwan’s drills raise probability of disruption in the Taiwan Strait. Any quarantine or blockade scenario would delay container flows, spike marine insurance, and force costly rerouting for electronics, machinery, and intermediate goods supply chains.

USMCA Renegotiation and Trade Uncertainty

The 2026 review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA/CUSMA) introduces significant uncertainty for Canadian exporters and investors. Rising US protectionism and threats to terminate the agreement could disrupt North American supply chains and alter market access for key sectors.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

Environmental and Labor Standards Scrutiny

Foreign investment, particularly from China, faces increasing scrutiny over environmental and labor practices. Regulatory enforcement and community expectations are rising, making compliance with sustainability standards essential for maintaining social license and business continuity.

Macroprudential tightening hits credit

BDDK and the central bank tightened consumer and FX-credit rules: card limits must align with documented income, unused high limits can be reduced, restructuring is capped, and FX-loan growth limits were cut to 0.5% over eight weeks. Expect tighter liquidity and financing.

Supply Chain Disruptions from Conflict

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and logistics hubs in 2025 led to the lowest pipeline deliveries since 2010 and a 25% drop in energy income. Such disruptions threaten supply reliability for global partners and heighten operational risks.

Labor Market Tightness and Transformation

The US labor market remains tight, with low unemployment and rising wages, while technological adoption and immigration policy shifts are transforming workforce dynamics. These trends impact talent acquisition, operational costs, and long-term competitiveness for both domestic and international firms.

Strategic Realignment of Global Trade Partnerships

Major economies like India and the EU are forging new trade and security agreements, partly as a hedge against US and Russian policy unpredictability. These realignments shift global trade flows, regulatory environments, and investment strategies, with long-term consequences for multinational business operations.

Foreign Investment Scrutiny in Strategic Sectors

Australian authorities have intensified scrutiny of foreign—especially Chinese—investment in critical minerals and infrastructure. Recent court actions and forced divestments signal a tougher regulatory stance, affecting deal structures, ownership risks, and market access for international investors.

Foreign Capital Inflows Remain Resilient

Despite global volatility, Indonesia attracted Rp1.44 trillion (US$93 million) in foreign capital inflows in early 2026, mainly into equities and securities. Steady inflows reflect investor confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals and growth prospects.

Current Account Deficit and Financing

Brazil’s current account deficit reached US$68.8 billion in 2025 (3.02% of GDP), financed mainly by long-term foreign investment. While trade balances remain positive, deficits in services and primary income require ongoing capital inflows to sustain external stability.

AI and Tech Export Boom

Taiwan’s exports surged 26% to $743.7 billion in 2025, driven by AI and high-performance computing demand. Major tech firms like TSMC and Foxconn posted record profits, but concerns linger over an AI bubble and overdependence on tech exports.

Industrial digital twins for energy

Finland’s energy-transition projects and grid investments are increasing uptake of simulation for power systems, heating networks and decarbonization planning. This supports consulting and software exports, but also elevates requirements for data quality, model validation, and regulatory-aligned reporting.

USMCA Review and North America

The mandated USMCA joint review is approaching, with U.S. officials signaling tougher rules of origin, critical-minerals cooperation, and potential bilateralization. Any tightening could reshape automotive and industrial supply chains, compliance costs, and investment decisions across Mexico, Canada, and the U.S.

Surge in Used EV Market Drives Battery Reuse

France’s used electric vehicle market grew 30% in 2025, with battery longevity and second-life applications now critical. This trend boosts demand for battery reuse solutions, influencing investment strategies and the structure of aftersales and recycling supply chains.

Cybercrime, fraud, and compliance pressure

Rising cybercrime and cross-border scam activity is driving stricter security practices (e.g., Bitkub disabling web withdrawals after phishing losses) and diplomatic focus on cybercrime/trafficking. Businesses should expect tougher KYC/AML, incident-reporting expectations, and higher security spend.

Upgraded EU-Vietnam Strategic Partnership

Vietnam and the EU have elevated ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, deepening cooperation in trade, critical minerals, semiconductors, and technology. This move supports supply chain security, market access, and investment, especially as US tariffs reshape global trade dynamics.

Geopolitical risk: Taiwan routes

Persistent Taiwan Strait tensions elevate insurance premiums, rerouting risk, and contingency planning needs for shipping and air freight. A crisis would disrupt semiconductor-linked supply chains and regional production networks, prompting customers to demand dual-sourcing and higher inventories.

Corredores logísticos e licenciamento

Concessões e projetos de hidrovias e portos ganham tração, mas enfrentam licenciamento ambiental e contestação social. A Hidrovia do Rio Paraguai mira leilão até 2026 e pode elevar cargas de 8,8 para 30 Mt, reduzindo fretes do agro.

Labor Shortages Drive Immigration Policy Shifts

Persistent skilled labor shortages are prompting Germany to expand ethical pathways for foreign workers, notably from India. This trend is vital for modular sector growth, affecting project delivery, wage structures, and operational scalability for international investors.

Geopolitical Risks in Resource Supply Chains

Global supply chain vulnerabilities, especially in critical minerals, are heightened by concentrated production in China and Russia. Australia’s efforts to build strategic reserves and diversify sourcing are crucial for business continuity, risk management, and long-term investment planning.