Persistent Inflation Pass-Through Risk

Tariff refunds are unlikely to lower consumer prices meaningfully, while replacement duties keep pass-through pressures alive. Temporary 10% tariffs expire in late July, but likely follow-on measures mean businesses should plan for sustained price volatility and cautious consumer demand.

Trade Reorientation Toward New Partners

Turkey’s imports from Russia dropped 22.8% in the first four months of 2026, while inflows from China and others increased. This points to a broader reconfiguration of sourcing and trade corridors that will affect procurement strategies, customs planning, and supplier diversification.

Energy shock reshapes competitiveness

Middle East turmoil has lifted fuel and import energy costs, prompting support for transport, farming, and fisheries. Although France’s nuclear-heavy power mix cushions electricity prices, energy volatility is still raising logistics costs, inflation pressure, and planning uncertainty.

Energy Import Cost Exposure

Japan’s heavy dependence on imported energy leaves businesses vulnerable to oil and LNG price swings. Yen weakness amplifies fuel and electricity costs, raising manufacturing, logistics, and procurement expenses and increasing earnings volatility across energy-intensive sectors.

Semiconductor Reshoring Accelerates Unevenly

The United States is expanding domestic chip fabrication through subsidies, state backing, and strategic investments, but packaging, testing, and supplier ecosystems remain concentrated in Asia. High US construction and labor costs, workforce shortages, and missing back-end capacity limit full supply-chain security and raise execution risk.

Australia-China Trade Frictions Re-emerging

Canberra imposed tariffs of up to 82% on Chinese hot-rolled coil steel after anti-dumping findings, showing trade tensions remain live despite broader diplomatic stabilisation. Businesses should expect selective protectionism, compliance scrutiny and renewed volatility in China-linked industrial trade.

Gargalos logísticos do agronegócio

A infraestrutura segue aquém do crescimento agrícola. Levar soja de Sinop a Santos custou US$ 88,90 por tonelada em 2025, contra US$ 37 até a China. Rodovias precárias, baixa armazenagem e dependência de caminhões elevam custos, perdas e volatilidade exportadora.

Regulatory Climate Hurts Investment

Only 11.8% of Amcham survey respondents chose Korea as their preferred Asia-Pacific headquarters location, while 71% cited labor inflexibility and 69% called regulation restrictive. Rising legal uncertainty could deter regional HQ decisions, capital deployment, and higher-value business operations.

US Trade Negotiations Intensify

Thailand is prioritising a reciprocal trade agreement with Washington after bilateral trade topped US$93.6-110 billion in 2025. Talks focus on non-tariff barriers, automotive standards, pharmaceuticals and agriculture, with outcomes set to shape market access, compliance costs and investor confidence.

Housing Weakness and Debt Drag

Housing markets remain split: Toronto and Vancouver prices are falling while Quebec and Atlantic regions stay firmer. High household debt, softer consumer confidence, and elevated mortgage sensitivity are constraining spending, commercial activity, and real estate-linked investment decisions across major urban markets.

BEE Rules Shape Market Access

Black economic empowerment requirements remain a decisive regulatory variable for foreign investors, particularly in telecoms and licensing-heavy sectors. Delays over recognising equity-equivalent investment programmes signal policy friction inside government, prolonging compliance uncertainty, slowing market entry, and complicating transaction structuring.

US-China Tech Controls Escalate

Washington has tightened semiconductor restrictions, including halted shipments to Hua Hong facilities linked to 7-nanometer production, while Congress weighs broader controls. The dispute threatens billions in equipment sales, accelerates Chinese substitution, and raises compliance, sourcing, and technology-partnership risks.

Export Volatility in Agri Trade

India’s rice exports fell 7.5% to $11.53 billion in 2025-26, with March shipments down 15.36%, as instability affected Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Agribusiness traders, food importers and logistics firms face contract, payment and destination-market concentration risks.

Private Capital Into Infrastructure

Reform is gradually unlocking new investment channels. Eleven private rail operators have been awarded capacity, African Rail plans to raise $170 million for South African operations, and Afreximbank announced an $11 billion commitment spanning energy, logistics, mineral processing, and SME financing.

Logistics Corridor Upgrading

Vietnam is pushing logistics improvements to support trade growth, including a proposed direct Portland–Cai Mep-Thi Vai shipping route. Rising exports to the US, which exceeded $151.8 billion in 2025, are increasing demand for ports, warehousing, and multimodal infrastructure critical to supply-chain resilience.

Rising Expropriation and Legal Risk

Foreign investors still face elevated risks from asset seizures, abusive litigation and intellectual-property misuse, prompting new EU protections for affected companies. Combined with opaque official data and political intervention, this significantly undermines valuation confidence, dispute resolution and long-term investment planning.

Energy Sector Investment Reset

Egypt is cutting arrears to foreign oil companies from $6.5 billion to $1.2 billion and plans full clearance by end-June. New contracts, 101 exploration wells, and fresh gas finds could improve supply security and create upstream, services, and infrastructure opportunities.

USMCA Rules Tightening Risk

Tariff circumvention concerns are sharpening scrutiny of North American supply chains ahead of the USMCA review. Altana estimates about $300 billion in goods avoid tariffs annually, while suspicious transactions rose 76%, raising compliance costs and threatening Mexico-centered manufacturing strategies.

Weak domestic demand persists

China’s headline growth remains supported by exports and infrastructure, but household demand is still fragile. First-quarter GDP rose 5%, while retail sales increased only 2.4%, limiting consumer-facing opportunities and raising the risk of prolonged deflationary pressure on corporate earnings.

Industrial Localization and Mining

Saudi Arabia is deepening industrial policy through local manufacturing, mining, and value-chain localization. Industrial investment has reached about SR1.2 trillion, factories exceed 12,900, and estimated mineral wealth rose to SR9.4 trillion, supporting opportunities in equipment, processing, and supplier networks.

War Risks Hit Logistics

Russian strikes continue to disrupt ports, roads, rail, and cargo storage. Ukrainian ports still handled over 21 million tonnes in Q1, but attacks every five days, damage to 193 facilities, and higher insurance and routing costs keep supply chains fragile.

US Trade Deal Uncertainty

India-US trade negotiations remain pivotal as both sides rebuild tariff terms after a US court ruling. A temporary 15% US tariff and ongoing talks on market access, customs, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers affect exporters’ pricing and investment planning.

Private Rail Reform Gathers Pace

Logistics reform is opening commercial opportunities despite delays. Eleven private operators have secured network access, while new investors such as African Rail plan $170 million in rolling stock. If implementation holds, capacity, corridor resilience, and cross-border mineral transport should improve.

Semiconductor Controls and Decoupling

U.S. legislation and allied export controls are tightening pressure on China’s chip sector, while Beijing mandates at least 50% domestic equipment for new capacity and excludes foreign AI chips from state-backed data centers, accelerating bifurcated technology ecosystems and supplier displacement.

Semiconductor Controls Intensify Further

The United States is tightening chip restrictions through Commerce actions and the proposed MATCH Act, targeting Hua Hong, SMIC, YMTC and CXMT. Equipment suppliers with roughly 30%-35% China exposure face revenue losses, while electronics supply chains confront deeper technological bifurcation.

European Trade Relationship Pressure

Israel’s access to European markets faces rising political pressure as EU states debate partial suspension of preferential trade terms. With the EU accounting for 32% of Israel’s goods trade in 2024, any tariff changes or restrictions would materially affect exporters and investors.

Faster project approvals push

Canberra is backing bilateral state-federal environmental approvals, with A$45 million to reduce duplicated assessments and accelerate major resource, energy, and housing projects. Faster permitting could shorten investment timelines, though implementation quality and regulatory consistency will determine business confidence and execution benefits.

Trade Digitization Improves Clearance

Pakistan Single Window has surpassed 100,000 users, processing 1.58 million declarations and 1.02 million permits, while port-community integration is accelerating vessel clearance. Despite broader macro risks, customs digitization is a meaningful positive for compliance efficiency, shipping visibility and cross-border trade execution.

North American Trade Rules Tighten

USMCA review talks are moving toward tougher rules of origin, continued tariffs, and closer scrutiny of Chinese content in Mexican supply chains. Businesses face possible disruption to autos, steel and electronics trade, plus delayed investment decisions across North America.

Weak Growth, Fiscal Stimulus

Thailand’s 2026 growth outlook has been cut to 1.5%-1.6%, prompting discussion of roughly 500 billion baht in new borrowing and broad consumer relief. For investors, this signals softer domestic demand, rising sovereign policy intervention, and potential pressure on public finances.

New Nickel Pricing Raises Costs

A revised nickel ore benchmark formula effective 15 April values cobalt, iron and chromium alongside nickel, reportedly lifting reference prices by 100%-140%. This strengthens state revenues and miners, but raises smelter, HPAL and downstream manufacturing costs materially.

Juros altos e inflação persistente

O Banco Central cortou a Selic para 14,50%, mas sinalizou forte cautela, com expectativas de inflação de 2026 em 4,80%, acima do teto da meta. O ambiente mantém crédito caro, afeta investimento, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e custo financeiro corporativo.

Critical Minerals Value-Chain Nationalism

Brazil is tightening oversight of rare earths, lithium, nickel and graphite, demanding domestic processing, technology transfer, and greater state scrutiny of strategic deals. This creates major opportunities in downstream investment, but raises approval, ownership, and execution risks.

Semiconductor Industrial Policy Expansion

Tokyo is scaling strategic chip support, including an additional ¥631.5 billion for Rapidus, bringing public R&D backing to roughly ¥2.35 trillion. This strengthens domestic supply-chain resilience and advanced-node ambitions, but subsidy dependence, customer acquisition, and execution risk remain significant for investors.

Infrastructure Concessions and Investment

Brazil’s longer-term competitiveness still depends on expanding private investment in ports, logistics, sanitation, and transport concessions. Continued reforms can improve trade efficiency and market access, but fiscal rigidity and political uncertainty may slow project execution, permitting, and contract confidence.

Tighter Monetary and Inflation Risks

The State Bank raised the policy rate 100 basis points to 11.5% as March inflation reached 7.3% and core inflation 7.8%. Higher borrowing costs, weaker demand and possible double-digit inflation increase financing risk for importers, distributors, and consumer-facing investors.