Trade balance strain with neighbors

Pakistan’s trade deficit with nine neighbors widened 44.4% to $7.68bn in H1 FY26, driven by import growth (notably China) and weaker exports. This pressures FX demand and can prompt import management measures affecting raw materials and intermediate goods availability.

توسع الموانئ والممرات اللوجستية

خطة لوجستية وطنية تربط موانئ المتوسط والبحر الأحمر بموانئ جافة ومناطق صناعية عبر سبعة ممرات متعددة الوسائط، مع توسعات أرصفة عميقة بنحو 70 كم. التشغيل التجريبي لمحطة «تحيا مصر 1» بدمياط بطاقة 3.5 مليون TEU يعزز قدرات المناولة وجذب الخطوط.

Gas price and storage stress

Low German gas storage levels and higher winter price sensitivity increase heating-cost volatility. This strengthens the business case for electrification and efficiency retrofits, but also elevates default risk for households and SMEs, affecting credit underwriting, consumer financing, and project payback calculations.

Carbon pricing and green finance

Cabinet approved carbon credits, allowances and RECs as TFEX derivatives reference assets, anticipating a Climate Change Act with mandatory caps and pricing. Firms face rising compliance expectations, new hedging tools, and stronger ESG disclosure demands across supply chains and financing.

Election, coalition, constitutional rewrite

February 2026 election and constitutional referendum (about 60% “yes”) reshape Thailand’s policy trajectory. Coalition bargaining and court oversight risks can delay budgets, permits, and reforms, affecting investor confidence, PPP timelines, and regulatory predictability for foreign operators.

TL oynaklığı ve sermaye akımları

IMF, 2025 Mart stresinde yabancıların yaklaşık 18 milyar $ TL varlığı sattığını, net rezervlerin 56,9 milyar $’dan 29,1 milyar $’a indiğini belirtti. Geçici piyasa kısıtları görülebilir. Hedging, nakit yönetimi ve ithalat/İhracat fiyatlaması kritik.

Ciclo de juros e inflação

Com Selic em 15% e inflação em 12 meses perto de 4,44% (abaixo do teto de 4,5%), o mercado precifica início de cortes em março, possivelmente 50 bps. Isso afeta custo de capital, demanda doméstica, hedge cambial e valuations.

Nickel governance and reporting gaps

Regulators disclosed a major Chinese-linked nickel smelter failed to submit mandatory investment activity reports, weakening oversight of capital, production, taxes, and environmental compliance. This heightens governance and ESG due-diligence needs for counterparties in Indonesia’s nickel downstreaming ecosystem.

Export controls on advanced computing

U.S. national-security export controls on AI chips, tools, and know-how remain a central constraint on tech trade with China and other destinations. Companies must harden classification, licensing, and customer due diligence, while planning for sudden rule changes and market loss.

Nickel quota cuts, ore scarcity

Indonesia is slashing nickel ore RKAB quotas—targeting ~250–260m wet tons vs 379m in 2025—and ordering major mines like Weda Bay to cut output. Smelters may face feedstock deficits, driving imports (15.84m tons in 2025) and price volatility.

Hydrogen-Roadmap bleibt für Wärme unsicher

Restrukturierungen im Wasserstoffsektor und Debatten über überdimensionierte Infrastruktur deuten auf Verzögerungen beim H2-Hochlauf. Für Wärmeanwendungen (H2-ready Kessel, Spitzenlast, Industrie-Wärme) bleibt die Import- und Preisunsicherheit hoch, was Investitionen in H2-kompatible Assets risikoreicher macht.

Net-zero investment and grid bottlenecks

The UK is accelerating clean-power buildout, citing £300bn+ low‑carbon investment since 2010 and targets of 43–50GW offshore wind by 2030. Opportunities grow across supply chains, but grid connection delays and network upgrades remain material execution risks.

Semiconductor reshoring and subsidies

Japan is expanding advanced chip capacity and clusters—TSMC plans include 3nm production in Kumamoto with sizable public support—boosting local supplier demand, equipment imports, and infrastructure needs. Investors face opportunities, but also constraints from labor, water, permitting, and geopolitical export rules.

Border, visa and immigration digitisation

Home Affairs is expanding Electronic Travel Authorisation and pursuing a digital immigration overhaul using biometrics and AI to cut fraud and delays. If implemented well, it eases executive mobility and tourism; if not, it can create compliance bottlenecks and privacy litigation risk.

Energy diversification and LNG deals

Germany is locking in alternative LNG and storage partnerships, including agreements for up to 1 million tonnes/year LNG for up to 10 years and up to 2 GW battery storage investments. This supports security but embeds exposure to global LNG price cycles and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Regulatory tightening in housing finance

Bank of Israel measures cap mortgage maturities at 30 years, tighten repayment ratios, and raise bank capital requirements. This can cool real-estate demand, affect construction supply chains, and influence commercial leasing dynamics as households and developers adjust financing structures and cash flows.

Semiconductor push and critical minerals

Vietnam is scaling its role in packaging/testing while moving toward upstream capabilities, alongside efforts to develop rare earths, tungsten and gallium resources. Growing EU/US/Korea interest supports high-tech FDI, but talent, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain.

Monetary easing and credit conditions

The central bank cut rates by 100 bps (deposit 19%, lending 20%) and lowered reserve requirements to 16%, aiming to support growth as inflation moderates. Funding costs may ease, yet FX sensitivity and administered-price reforms can still affect financing and demand forecasts.

BoJ tightening, yen volatility

The Bank of Japan’s post-deflation normalisation (policy rate at 0.75% after December hike) keeps FX and JGB yields volatile, raising hedging costs and repricing M&A and project finance. Authorities also signal readiness to curb disorderly yen moves.

Regional HQ and market access leverage

Riyadh continues using policy to anchor multinationals locally, linking government contracting and strategic opportunities to in‑kingdom presence. Reports indicate over 200 companies have relocated HQs to Riyadh. This affects corporate structuring, tax residency, talent deployment, and bid competitiveness.

Digital regulation–trade linkage escalation

Coupang’s data-breach probe has triggered U.S. investor ISDS and Section 301 pressure, showing how privacy, platform and competition enforcement can become trade disputes. Multinationals should expect higher regulatory scrutiny, litigation risk, and bilateral retaliation dynamics in digital markets.

Data regulation tightening under DUAA

Most provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Multinationals face higher compliance costs for AI, marketing, and cross‑border data operations.

Energy transition bottlenecks and costs

UK decarbonisation continues, but grid constraints and high power costs remain a competitiveness issue for energy‑intensive industry. Delays in connections and network upgrades can slow plant expansions and electrification projects, increasing capex timelines and pushing firms to reassess UK footprint versus EU/US options.

High-tech FDI and semiconductor scaling

FDI remains strong with US$38.42bn registered in 2025 and US$27.62bn realised (highest 2021–25). Policy emphasis is shifting toward electronics, semiconductors, AI and rare earths, deepening supplier ecosystems but increasing competition for skilled labour and land.

Geopolitics-linked trade enforcement expands

US trade tools are increasingly tied to security and foreign-policy objectives, from fentanyl and migration narratives to scrutiny of Russian oil-linked trade. Expect more investigations, sanctions-tariff interplay, and compliance checks that can alter supplier eligibility, financing, and shipping routes.

EU Customs Union Modernization

Turkey and the EU are moving to “pave the way” for modernizing the 1995 Customs Union, alongside better implementation and renewed EIB activity. An update could expand coverage and improve regulatory alignment, supporting nearshoring, automotive/appliances supply chains, and cross-border investment planning.

Secondary sanctions via tariffs

New executive authority threatens ~25% additional tariffs on imports from countries trading with Iran, alongside expanded “shadow fleet” designations. This blurs sanctions and trade policy, raising counterparty screening demands, shipping/insurance costs, and retaliation risk for firms operating across US-linked markets.

Post-election policy continuity risks

Bhumjaithai’s strong election showing reduces near-term instability, supporting portfolio inflows, but coalition bargaining and a multi-year constitutional rewrite could still delay budgets and reforms. Foreign investors face execution risk around stimulus, infrastructure procurement, and regulatory priorities.

Rule-of-law and governance uncertainty

Heightened tensions between government and judiciary raise concerns about institutional independence and regulatory predictability. For investors, this can affect contract enforceability perceptions, dispute resolution confidence, and ESG assessments, influencing cost of capital and FDI appetite.

Stricter competition and digital rules

The CMA’s assertive posture and the UK’s digital competition regime increase scrutiny of mergers, platform conduct and data-driven markets. International acquirers should expect longer timelines, expanded remedies, and higher litigation risk, particularly in tech, media, and consumer sectors.

US–China trade realignment pressure

South Africa is navigating rising US trade frictions, including 30% tariffs on some exports and lingering sanctions risk, while deepening China ties via a framework/early-harvest deal promising duty-free access. Firms should plan for rules-of-origin, retaliation and market diversification.

Grid constraints reshape renewables rollout

Berlin plans to make wind and clean-power developers pay for grid connections and to better align renewables expansion with network build-out. Higher project costs, slower connection timelines and curtailment risks can affect PPAs, site selection and data-center/industrial electrification plans.

Digital platform regulation intensifies

Germany’s cartel office fined Amazon about €59m and restricted marketplace pricing mechanisms; Amazon’s marketplace represents ~60% of its German sales. Tighter enforcement reshapes online pricing, seller margins, platform contracts and compliance for international e‑commerce firms.

Sanctions tightening and compliance spillovers

EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands maritime services bans, shadow‑fleet listings, bank designations, anti‑circumvention tools, and export/import controls. Firms operating in Ukraine must strengthen counterparty screening, shipping due diligence, and re‑export controls to avoid violations.

Energiepreise, Netzentgelte, Wettbewerb

Hohe Stromkosten und regulatorische Reformen (z.B. Diskussion um Netzentgelte für Einspeiser, Marktmacht großer Erzeuger) beeinflussen Standortentscheidungen. Für energieintensive Branchen steigen Risiko von Volatilität, Investitionsaufschub und Carbon-Leakage, während PPAs und Eigenversorgung attraktiver werden.

Energía doméstica: déficit y cortes

Déficits de gas/electricidad y restricciones estacionales afectan producción industrial, minería y petroquímica. Para inversores y operadores, implica menor fiabilidad operativa, mayores costos de respaldo (diesel/UPS) y riesgo de incumplimiento de contratos de suministro, además de presión social.