Steel Protectionism Reshapes Inputs

London’s new steel strategy cuts tariff-free quotas by 60% from July and imposes 50% duties above quota, while targeting 50% domestic sourcing. Manufacturers, construction firms and importers face higher input costs, sourcing shifts, and tighter UK procurement requirements.

US-Taiwan Trade Security Alignment

The February 2026 US-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade would cut tariffs on up to 99% of goods while binding Taiwan more closely to US export controls, sanctions alignment and anti-diversion rules, reshaping compliance, market access and technology partnership strategies.

Uneven Export Growth Momentum

Taiwan’s economy remains strong but increasingly uneven, with AI and electronics outperforming traditional sectors. February orders rose 23.8%, yet China orders fell 0.2% and Europe orders fell 5.6%, signaling sectoral divergence, demand volatility and more selective investment conditions.

Revenue-raising tax policy shifts

The government is leaning on targeted tax increases and reduced incentives to shore up revenues, including R$4.4 billion from fintechs, bets, and JCP plus R$16.5 billion from benefit cuts. This signals rising sector-specific tax risk and lower after-tax returns.

Trade Exposure To External Shocks

Indonesia remains vulnerable to external disruptions from Middle East energy routes, U.S. trade actions, and capital outflows. Pressure on fuel imports, the rupiah, and sovereign ratings can quickly transmit into freight costs, hedging needs, and foreign-investment risk premiums across sectors.

Fragile Growth and Export Weakness

Macroeconomic conditions have stabilised but remain soft for investors. Real GDP growth improved from 0.5% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, driven mainly by consumption, while exports declined amid logistics constraints and external tariff pressure on key tradable sectors.

Labor and Immigration Costs Rise

New immigration and labor proposals could materially increase employer costs in agriculture, technology, and skilled services. The Labor Department’s draft H-1B and PERM wage rule would lift prevailing wages by about $14,000 per worker on average, while farm-labor disputes underscore persistent workforce shortages and policy inconsistency.

Policy Credibility Risk Rising

Rapid shifts from global tariffs to temporary 10% duties and then targeted investigations have weakened confidence in U.S. trade-policy predictability. International firms must plan for sudden rule changes, contract repricing, and politically driven adjustments affecting exports, market access, and investment decisions.

UK tax and HMRC changes

From April 2026, expanded Making Tax Digital (quarterly filings for £50k+), higher dividend tax (+2pp), BADR CGT rising to 18%, and revised business/inheritance relief rules change deal structuring, owner-exit planning, and compliance costs for UK entities and inbound investors.

Rare Earth Supply Risks

China’s control over rare earths remains a major chokepoint. Permanent magnet exports to the US fell 22.5% year on year to 994 tonnes in January-February, while aerospace and semiconductor users still report shortages, elevating inventory, procurement and diversification pressures.

China Ties Stay Economically Central

Despite strategic tensions, China remains indispensable to Australian trade and business planning. Two-way trade reportedly reached a record A$300 billion in 2025, while recovering export channels and ongoing geopolitical frictions require firms to balance market access against concentration and political risk.

B50 Biodiesel Mandate Expansion

Indonesia will implement mandatory B50 biodiesel from 1 July 2026, aiming to cut fossil fuel use by 4 million kiloliters annually and save about Rp48 trillion. The shift supports palm oil demand, reduces diesel imports, and changes energy and logistics cost assumptions.

Maritime Rerouting and Transshipment Upside

Regional conflict has diverted cargo toward Pakistani ports, creating a short-term logistics opportunity. Karachi handled 8,313 transshipment TEUs since March 1, while Port Qasim processed about 450,000 metric tons of petroleum and LPG in March, improving Pakistan’s relevance as a regional shipping and redistribution hub.

Sanctions Enforcement in Maritime Trade

France is intensifying enforcement against Russia’s shadow fleet, recently intercepting another tanker linked to sanctions evasion. Stronger maritime policing raises compliance expectations for shippers, insurers and commodity traders, while reducing legal tolerance for opaque ownership and false-flag practices.

Logistics Bottlenecks and Rail Gaps

Logistics inefficiencies remain the biggest drag on trade competitiveness, with costs nearing R1 billion daily and over 50% of physical-economy value absorbed by logistics. Weak container rail links, port delays and Durban-Gauteng corridor congestion raise export costs and supply-chain risk.

State Ownership and Privatisation

Cairo is updating its State Ownership Policy to expand private-sector participation, reform state entities and remove preferential treatment. If implemented consistently, this could improve competition, open acquisition opportunities and reshape market entry conditions across infrastructure, industry and strategic services.

US Tariff and Trade Exposure

Vietnamese exporters face acute uncertainty from the US 150-day tariff regime, with duties at 10% and potential escalation to 15%. Low-margin sectors such as garments, footwear and seafood are most exposed, alongside stricter origin and anti-circumvention scrutiny.

Emergency State Market Intervention

Seoul has imposed a five-month naphtha export ban, price caps on transport fuels, strategic reserve releases and energy-saving measures. These interventions can stabilize short-term domestic operations, but add policy uncertainty for foreign investors, refiners, traders and cross-border supply planning.

Fiscal Stress And Austerity

Higher global energy prices and domestic spending pressures are prompting budget refocusing, including potential savings of Rp121.2-130.2 trillion and cuts to the free meals program. Fiscal strain raises risks around subsidies, payment cycles, public procurement, and macro policy unpredictability for investors.

Closer EU Financial Links Sought

The government is pursuing closer financial-services cooperation with the EU to reduce Brexit-era frictions and support capital raising. For international firms, easier market linkages could improve financing conditions, though regulatory divergence and future EU rules still create operational uncertainty.

Energy sanctions flexibility amid Iran war

Oil-market disruption from the Iran conflict is driving temporary U.S. sanctions waivers affecting Russian and Iranian-linked shipping and crude flows. Energy-intensive manufacturers and shippers face volatile fuel prices, insurance terms, and sanctions-compliance ambiguity across trading partners.

Labor shortages and workforce substitution

Reserve call-ups and reduced Palestinian labor access continue to strain construction, agriculture, and services. Expanded recruitment of foreign workers (notably India) supports project restarts but introduces governance, security, and HR-compliance requirements for employers and contractors.

Growth Downgrades and Funding Costs

Banks and analysts are revising Turkey’s outlook toward slower growth and tighter financial conditions, with one forecast cutting 2026 growth to 3.2% from 4.2%. Higher borrowing costs, weaker external demand, and bond outflows may delay expansion, M&A, and capital-intensive investment plans.

Security Threats to Logistics Networks

Cargo theft, extortion and federal highway insecurity remain material operating risks for manufacturers and distributors. Business groups are now advocating a parallel security arrangement with the United States, reflecting the direct impact of crime on delivery reliability, insurance costs and workforce safety.

Middle East Shock to Logistics

Conflict-linked disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is raising fuel, freight and war-risk insurance costs, with some container rates reportedly doubling from $3,500 to $7,000. Thai exporters face rerouting, shipment delays and margin pressure across Europe and Gulf-bound supply chains.

High Energy Costs Reshape Industry

Persistently elevated electricity and energy costs remain a core disadvantage for German manufacturing, especially chemicals, metals, and autos. Companies are restructuring and relocating capacity abroad, while policymakers debate price caps and relief, creating uncertainty for operating costs and long-term industrial commitments.

Industrial Competitiveness Erosion Deepens

Germany’s export-led model is under heavy strain as industrial output weakens, firms lose over 10,000 jobs monthly, and competitiveness deteriorates under high energy, labor, tax, and regulatory costs, reducing Germany’s ability to capture global demand and complicating investment planning.

High Interest Rates, Volatile Rand

The Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates at 6.75% as oil-driven inflation and rand weakness cloud the outlook. Markets have shifted from pricing cuts to possible hikes, raising hedging costs, financing uncertainty and currency risk for importers, investors and multinationals.

Agricultural Access Still Constrained

Despite the EU pact, key agricultural exports remain capped by quotas, including roughly 30,600 tonnes of beef and limited sheepmeat access, constraining upside for agribusiness exporters while preserving uncertainty for processors, logistics providers, and long-term market development strategies.

External Buffer Dependence

Remittances rose 28.4% to $25.6 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2025/26, helping lift reserves and absorb shocks. Still, Egypt’s resilience remains dependent on remittances, tourism and foreign inflows, leaving businesses exposed to sudden regional sentiment shifts.

Power investment needs surge

India’s power system is projected to expand from about 520 GW to 1,121 GW by 2035-36, requiring roughly $2.2 trillion in investment. This creates major opportunities in generation, grids, and storage, but also raises execution, financing, and regulatory risks for businesses.

Technology Export Controls Tighten

Fresh evidence that restricted Nvidia AI chips reached Chinese entities via Southeast Asia is intensifying pressure for stricter US export enforcement. Businesses face higher licensing uncertainty, tougher end-user scrutiny and greater disruption risk across semiconductors, cloud, data-center and advanced manufacturing supply chains.

BOJ Tightening And Yen Volatility

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% but signaled further hikes remain possible. With markets assigning meaningful odds to an April move and the yen near 159 per dollar, firms face rising hedging, financing and cross-border pricing risks.

Energy Security and Power Reliability

Taiwan imports about 96% of its energy, while AI-driven electricity demand is rising. Nuclear restart reviews, LNG diversification, and grid upgrades are central for manufacturers; any disruption or delay would affect power-intensive sectors, operating costs, decarbonization planning, and site-selection decisions.

Industrial Policy And Reshoring Push

U.S. policy continues to favor reshoring critical supply chains through tariffs, subsidy-linked infrastructure, and sectoral protection. This supports domestic manufacturing and selected capital investment, but raises localization pressure, supplier qualification costs, and market-entry complexity for multinational firms serving the U.S.

Manufacturing Scale-Up and Localization

India continues to deepen industrial policy support for electronics, capital goods, batteries, and strategic manufacturing through targeted tax relief, customs reductions, and production incentives. For multinationals, this expands local sourcing opportunities but also raises expectations around domestic value addition and localization.