Immigration enforcement policy volatility

Intensified immigration enforcement and politically contested oversight proposals at DHS create uncertainty for labor availability and compliance, especially in logistics, agriculture, construction, and services. Companies face higher HR/legal costs, potential workplace disruption, and relocation or automation pressures.

New trade deals and friend-shoring

US is using reciprocal trade agreements to rewire supply chains toward strategic partners. The US–Taiwan deal caps many tariffs at 15%, links chip treatment to US investment, and includes large procurement and investment pledges, influencing regional manufacturing footprints and sourcing decisions.

Geopolitical realignment of corridors

With European routes constrained, Russia deepens reliance on non-Western corridors and intermediaries—through the Caucasus, Central Asia, and maritime transshipment—to sustain trade. This raises reputational and compliance risk for firms operating in transit states, where due diligence on beneficial ownership and end-use is increasingly critical.

EU–Thailand FTA acceleration

Bangkok and Brussels aim to conclude an EU–Thailand FTA by mid-2026, promising tariff reduction and investment momentum, especially in S-curve industries. However, compliance demands on environment, product standards and regulatory alignment will raise costs for lagging manufacturers and SMEs.

USMCA 2026 review uncertainty

With the July 1 USMCA joint review approaching, Washington is signaling tougher rules of origin, critical-minerals cooperation and anti-dumping measures, while reports of potential U.S. withdrawal add volatility. Preferential access depends on compliance, shaping investment timing and sourcing.

Ports and rail capacity recovery

Transnet is improving but remains a major supply-chain risk. Freight volumes rose to ~160.1Mt with revenue ~R42.7bn (+9.2%); coal exports via Richards Bay hit ~57.7Mt in 2025 (+11%). Yet Cape Town port backlogs can strand ~R1bn fruit shipments.

Electronics PLI and ECMS surge

Budget 2026 expands electronics incentives, including a ₹40,000 crore electronics PLI outlay and ECMS scaling, with production reportedly up 146% since FY21 and ~$4bn FDI tied to beneficiaries. Multinationals gain from supplier localization, but disbursement pace and rules matter.

Minerais críticos e competição geopolítica

EUA e UE intensificam acordos para grafite, níquel, nióbio e terras raras; a Serra Verde recebeu financiamento dos EUA de US$ 565 milhões. Oportunidades em mineração e refino convivem com exigências ESG, licenciamento e risco de dependência de compradores.

Data privacy and surveillance constraints

Growing scrutiny of government and commercial data collection is increasing compliance and reputational risk, especially for data brokers, adtech, and cross-border data users. Senators allege ICE buys location and other sensitive data from brokers; efforts to revive the “Fourth Amendment Is Not for Sale Act” could tighten rules.

Electricity reform and grid bottlenecks

Load-shedding has eased, but transmission expansion is the binding constraint. Eskom’s plan targets ~14,000–14,500km of new lines by 2034 at ~R440bn; slow build rates risk delaying IPP projects, raising tariffs, and constraining industrial investment.

Data (Use and Access) Act

Core provisions of the UK Data (Use and Access) Act entered into force, expanding ICO powers to compel interviews and technical reports and enabling fines up to £17.5m or 4% of global turnover under PECR. Compliance programs, AI/data governance, and cross-border data strategies may need recalibration.

External debt rollovers, FX buffers

Pakistan’s reliance on short-term bilateral rollovers and Chinese commercial loans keeps reserves fragile; a recent $700m repayment cut gross reserves to about $15.5bn. Tight buffers raise devaluation risk, restrict profit repatriation and disrupt import-dependent supply chains.

EU market access and GSP+ scrutiny

Pakistan’s duty-free access under EU GSP+ (extended to 2027) is pivotal for textiles and apparel, but remains linked to 27 conventions and rights monitoring. Any compliance slippage or preference erosion would raise landed costs and disrupt buyer sourcing decisions.

Foreign investment approvals and regulation drag

Multinational CEOs report slower, costlier approvals and heavier compliance. OECD ranks Australia highly restrictive for foreign investment screening; nearly half of applications exceeded statutory timelines, and fees have risen sharply. Deal certainty, transaction costs and time-to-market are increasingly material planning factors.

Patchwork U.S. AI and privacy regulation

State-led AI governance and privacy rules are expanding in 2026, adding transparency, bias testing, provenance, and reporting requirements. Multinationals face fragmented compliance across jurisdictions, higher litigation risk, and new constraints on cross-border data and HR automation.

Federal shutdown and budget volatility

Recurring U.S. funding disputes create operational uncertainty for businesses dependent on federal services. A late-January partial shutdown risk tied to DHS and immigration enforcement highlights potential disruptions to permitting, inspections, procurement, and travel, with spillovers into logistics and compliance timelines.

AB Gümrük Birliği modernizasyonu

AB ve Türkiye, Gümrük Birliği’nin güncellenmesi ve uygulamanın iyileştirilmesi için çalışmayı yeniden canlandırıyor; EIB operasyonlarının kademeli dönüşü de gündemde. İlerleme, tarım-hizmetler-kamu alımları kapsaması, uyum maliyetleri ve AB pazarına erişim/menşe kurallarında değişim yaratabilir.

Trade facilitation and digital licensing

Authorities aim to cut investment licensing from ~24 months to under 90 days via a unified digital platform, while reducing customs clearance from 16 days to five (target two) and moving ports to 7-day operations. Execution quality will determine actual savings.

Payment constraints and crypto workarounds

With banking restrictions persistent, Iran increasingly relies on alternative settlement channels including stablecoins and local exchanges, complicating compliance and AML controls. Firms face elevated fraud, convertibility, and repatriation risk, plus higher transaction costs and delayed settlement timelines.

Supply-chain localisation via PLI

India’s PLI programmes have disbursed ₹28,748 crore across 14 sectors, approving 836 projects with ₹2.16 lakh crore investment, ₹8.3 lakh crore exports and 1.439 million jobs. Import substitution is material (mobile imports down ~77%), affecting sourcing, incentives, and partner selection.

Rail-border bottlenecks and gauge mismatch

Efforts to integrate Ukraine’s rail with EU networks highlight structural constraints: different track gauges require transshipment at borders, creating durable chokepoints. Any surge in exports or reconstruction imports can overwhelm terminals, extending lead times and pushing firms to diversify routing via Danube and road.

Investment screening and outbound limits

CFIUS scrutiny remains high while Treasury advances process changes (e.g., “Known Investor” concepts) and the outbound investment regime for sensitive technologies expands. Cross-border M&A, joint ventures, and greenfield projects face longer approvals, mitigation requirements, and valuation discounts.

Energy export logistics bottlenecks

Longer voyages, tankers idling offshore, and ice conditions around Baltic ports are delaying loadings and reducing throughput, while ports face stricter ice-class and escort rules. Combined with sanctions-driven rerouting, this increases freight rates, demurrage disputes, and delivery uncertainty for energy and commodities.

Currency collapse and inflation shock

The rial’s rapid depreciation and high inflation undermine pricing, working capital, and import affordability, driving ad hoc controls and payment delays. Businesses face FX convertibility risk, volatile local demand, and greater reliance on barter, intermediaries, and informal settlement channels.

Policy disruption from shutdown risks

Repeated funding standoffs—recent partial shutdowns and DHS funding cliffs—delay economic data releases, create operational uncertainty for agencies affecting travel, disaster response, and cybersecurity, and inject timing risk into regulated processes and government-dependent contracts for international firms.

SOE reform momentum and policy execution

Business confidence has improved but remains fragile, with reform progress uneven across Eskom and Transnet. Slippage on rail legislation, ports corporatisation and electricity unbundling timelines creates execution risk for PPPs, project finance, and long-horizon capex decisions.

EU-Nachhaltigkeitsregeln und Lieferkettenpflichten

Die Umsetzung/Überarbeitung von EU-CSDDD/„Omnibus“-Paketen und die Verzahnung mit deutschen Sorgfaltspflichten verschieben Compliance-Anforderungen. Fokus auf Tier‑1‑Lieferanten, Haftungsfragen und Berichtspflichten verändern Vertragsgestaltung, Auditprogramme und Lieferantenauswahl; Reputations- und Bußgeldrisiken bleiben.

Digital regulation and data-sovereignty disputes

US concerns over platform fairness rules, network usage fees, and restrictions on exporting high-precision map data (Google) are resurfacing in trade talks. Tighter privacy enforcement after major breaches raises liability, audit, and cross-border data-transfer costs for tech-enabled firms.

Balochistan security threatens corridors

Militant attacks on freight trains, highways and CPEC-linked areas in Balochistan elevate security costs, insurance premiums and transit uncertainty for Gwadar/Karachi supply routes. Heightened risk to personnel and assets complicates project execution, especially mining and infrastructure investments.

Defense rearmament boosts industrial demand

France is increasing defence outlays and production tempo; major primes are hiring at scale (e.g., Thales >9,000 hires globally, ~3,300 in France, over half in defence). Creates opportunities in aerospace/defence supply chains but tightens skilled‑labour availability and compliance requirements.

USMCA review and tariff risk

Preparations for the USMCA/CUSMA joint review are colliding with renewed U.S. tariff threats on autos, steel, aluminum and other goods, raising compliance and pricing risk for integrated North American supply chains and cross-border investment planning.

Ports and logistics hub buildout

Egypt is investing to become a regional transit-trade hub via multimodal corridors, dry ports, and major terminal expansions. Damietta’s new terminal targets ~3.3–3.5m TEU capacity with advanced equipment, improving throughput and transshipment competitiveness across the East Med.

Disaster and infrastructure resilience planning

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather keeps business-continuity a board priority; government frameworks allow emergency energy supply requests and logistics reprioritization. Multinationals should diversify suppliers, validate tier-2/3 dependencies, and stress-test port and warehousing routes.

Steel and aluminum tariff escalation

Higher US aluminum and steel tariffs are driving record physical premiums and import dislocations, lifting costs for autos, aerospace, construction, and packaging. Firms face increased input inflation, renegotiation of supply contracts, and pressure to qualify domestic or alternative suppliers.

Cross-strait coercion and shipping

Rising PRC air–naval activity and ‘quarantine’ style coercion around Taiwan increases shipping and war-risk insurance costs, threatens port throughput, and creates disruption risk for time-sensitive imports (especially LNG) and export logistics, affecting continuity planning and contract clauses.

Gwadar logistics and incentives evolve

Gwadar Airport operations, free-zone incentives (23-year tax holiday, duty-free machinery) and improved highways aim to deepen re-export and processing activity. The opportunity is new distribution hubs; the risk is execution capacity, security costs, and regulatory clarity for investors.