Public-Private Partnerships Drive Infrastructure

Turkey has implemented 272 PPP projects worth $215 billion since 1986, including airports and bridges. The PPP model remains central to infrastructure, with a focus on sustainability, human-centered development, and attracting international financing.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

Border and neighbor-country trade disruptions

Thai-Cambodian tensions and Myanmar instability create episodic border closures, rerouting costs, and inventory risk for agribusiness and manufacturers. Myanmar’s reduced FX conversion requirement (15%) may help liquidity, but security and import controls still threaten cross-border trade reliability.

Ports and logistics labor uncertainty

U.S. supply chains remain exposed to port and transport labor negotiations and anti-automation disputes, increasing disruption risk at key gateways. Importers may diversify ports, adjust routing, and carry higher safety stock, especially when tariff timing triggers demand spikes and front-loading behavior.

USMCA review and tariff volatility

Mandatory USMCA review by July 1 is becoming contentious; Washington is openly weighing withdrawal and has threatened extreme tariffs and sector levies. Heightened uncertainty disrupts pricing, contract terms, and cross-border auto, metals, agriculture, and services supply chains.

China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

India-Canada Energy and Minerals Reset

Canada and India are negotiating broad accords on energy, critical minerals, and AI, aiming to double bilateral trade by 2030. This diplomatic reset opens new markets for Canadian resources, supports supply chain diversification, and strengthens Canada’s position in Asian growth markets.

Trade remedies and sectoral duties

Vietnam faces rising trade-defense actions as exports expand. The US finalized AD/CVD duties on hard empty capsules with Vietnam dumping at 47.12% and subsidies at 2.45%, signaling broader enforcement risk. Companies should strengthen origin documentation, pricing files, and contingency sourcing.

Reconstruction-driven infrastructure demand

Three years after the 2023 quakes, authorities report 455,000 housing/commercial units delivered, while multilateral lenders like EBRD invested €2.7bn in 2025, including wastewater and sewage projects. Construction, materials, logistics and engineering opportunities remain, with execution and procurement risks.

Energy balance: gas, power reliability

Declining domestic gas output and seasonal demand spikes raise LNG import needs and elevate power-supply stress. Businesses face risks of higher tariffs, intermittent load management, and input-cost volatility for energy-intensive manufacturing. Energy contracts, backup generation, and efficiency investments are increasingly material.

Sanctions, compliance, crypto enforcement

Ukraine is expanding sanctions against entities and individuals supporting Russia’s defence and financial networks, including crypto payment and mining channels linked to component procurement. This raises counterparty, KYC/AML and re-export control burdens for regional traders and service providers, especially across hubs like UAE and Hong Kong.

Reforma tributária do IVA dual

A transição do IBS/CBS avança com a instalação do Comitê Gestor do IBS e regulamentação infralegal pendente; implementação plena ocorrerá gradualmente até 2033. Empresas devem preparar sistemas fiscais, precificação e créditos, além de mapear efeitos setoriais e contencioso.

Afreximbank and Regional Integration

South Africa’s accession to Afreximbank unlocks up to $11 billion in funding for infrastructure, energy, and industrialization. This supports value-added manufacturing, Black business participation, and deeper integration into the African Continental Free Trade Area, enhancing regional trade prospects.

West Bank escalation and sanctions

Rising settler violence, expanded Israeli operations and growing international scrutiny increase risks of targeted sanctions, legal challenges and heightened compliance screening. Multinationals must reassess counterparties, project sites and procurement to avoid exposure to human-rights-related restrictions and activism-driven disruptions.

Ports and logistics corridor expansion

Egypt is building seven multimodal trade corridors, expanding ports with ~70 km of new deep-water berths and scaling dry ports toward 33. A new semi-automated Sokhna container terminal (>$1.8bn) improves throughput, but execution and tariff predictability matter.

ESG and Sustainability Regulatory Momentum

Taiwanese financial and industrial sectors are accelerating ESG adoption, with new SBTi-aligned targets, green energy integration, and supply chain decarbonization. Firms face growing expectations for emissions reduction, sustainable finance, and supply chain transparency.

Tech export controls tightening

Stricter semiconductor and AI export controls and aggressive enforcement are reshaping tech supply chains. Recent fines for unlicensed China shipments and stringent licensing terms for AI GPUs raise compliance costs, constrain China revenues, and accelerate ‘compute-at-home’ and redesign strategies.

Tariff rationalisation amid protectionism

Recent tariff schedules cut duties on many inputs, improving manufacturing cost structures, while maintaining high protection on finished goods in select sectors. This mix changes sourcing decisions, compliance requirements, and effective protection rates, influencing export orientation versus domestic-market rent-seeking.

Weaponized finance and sanctions risk

US investigations into sanctioned actors using crypto and stablecoins highlight expanding enforcement across digital rails. For cross-border businesses, this raises screening obligations, counterparty risk, and potential payment disruptions, especially in high-risk corridors connected to Iran or Russia.

Freight rail recovery, lingering constraints

Rail performance is improving, supporting commodities exports; Richards Bay coal exports rose ~11% in 2025 to over 57Mt as corridors stabilised. Yet derailments, security incidents, rolling-stock shortages and infrastructure limits persist, elevating logistics risk for bulk and containerised supply chains.

Investment screening and outbound limits

CFIUS scrutiny remains high while Treasury advances process changes (e.g., “Known Investor” concepts) and the outbound investment regime for sensitive technologies expands. Cross-border M&A, joint ventures, and greenfield projects face longer approvals, mitigation requirements, and valuation discounts.

Cybersecurity Regulation and Investment Surge

Israel is advancing comprehensive cyber laws and attracting significant investment in cybersecurity startups. New regulations will require real-time reporting of attacks, affecting hundreds of critical companies and shaping compliance, risk management, and business continuity strategies.

Shadow Economy and Sanctions Evasion

Iran’s reliance on shadow fleets, barter trade, and crypto channels to bypass sanctions has grown. US Treasury actions against crypto exchanges and shipping networks highlight enforcement risks for counterparties and the need for enhanced due diligence in all Iran-linked transactions.

Choques comerciais no agronegócio

Novas medidas de China e México sobre carne bovina alteram fluxo: a China impõe cota de 1,1 milhão t a 12% e excedente com sobretaxa de 55% (até 67% efetivo); México taxa acima de 70 mil t. Exige diversificação de destinos e ajustes na cadeia.

US trade talks and tariff risk

Vietnam is negotiating a more “reciprocal” trade framework with the US amid tariff pressure and scrutiny of Vietnam’s export surplus. Outcomes could reshape duties, rules-of-origin enforcement and supply-chain routing, affecting apparel, electronics, and China-plus-one strategies.

Semiconductor protectionism and reshoring

A targeted 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips, coupled with Section 232 investigations and “tariff offset” concepts, aims to accelerate domestic capacity. Firms face higher component costs, potential broader duties on derivative products, and pressure to localize manufacturing and secure chip inputs.

Tech Sector Expansion Amid Global Demand

Israel’s technology sector, including AI and semiconductor equipment, is experiencing robust growth, attracting major investments like Nvidia’s new campus. This expansion strengthens Israel’s global tech leadership but also strains local infrastructure and raises competition for talent.

EU trade friction on palm/nickel

Trade disputes and regulatory barriers with Europe—spanning palm sustainability rules and nickel downstreaming—remain a structural risk for exporters. Firms should anticipate tighter traceability demands, litigation/WTO uncertainty, and potential market-access shifts toward alternative destinations and FTAs.

Escalating sanctions and secondary risk

The EU’s 20th package expands energy, banking and trade restrictions, adding 43 shadow-fleet vessels (around 640 total) plus more regional and third‑country banks. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure, contract frustration risk, and compliance costs for global firms transacting with Russia-linked counterparts.

IMF programme and macro conditionality

Late-February IMF review will determine release of a $1bn EFF tranche, shaping FX reserves, taxation, privatisation and monetary policy. Policy slippage risks renewed import controls, payment delays and currency volatility that directly affect trade finance and investor confidence.

Nokia networks enabling industrial XR

Nokia’s continued investment in optical networks, data-centre switching and 5G/6G trials strengthens the connectivity backbone for industrial metaverse and real-time simulation. International firms can leverage Finnish telecom partnerships, but should plan for supply constraints in AI infrastructure ecosystems.

Sanctions enforcement and shadow fleets

US sanctions activity is intensifying against Iran and Russia-linked networks, targeting vessels, traders, and financiers. This raises secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑US firms, heightens maritime due diligence needs (AIS, beneficial ownership, STS transfers), and increases insurance, freight, and payment friction.

Shrinking but Persistent EU-Iran Trade

Despite sanctions, EU-Iran trade persists at low levels—€4.6bn in 2024, mainly machinery, chemicals, and food. However, ongoing sanctions and the IRGC’s terrorist designation by the EU further constrain business, with compliance burdens and reputational risks for European firms.

Aranceles y reconfiguración automotriz

Aranceles de EE. UU. y peticiones de México para reducir tasas a autos no conformes con T‑MEC presionan exportaciones. Cierres/ajustes de plantas y potencial compra por BYD/Geely muestran reconfiguración; sube el escrutinio sobre “backdoor” chino y el riesgo de medidas.

Escalating energy grid disruption

Sustained Russian missile and drone strikes are driving nationwide power rationing, forcing factory downtime, higher generator and fuel imports, and unstable cold-chain logistics. Grid repairs are slow due to scarce transformers and long lead times, raising operating costs and continuity risk.

Domestic demand fragility and policy swings

Weak property and local-government finance dynamics keep domestic demand uneven, encouraging policy stimulus and sector interventions. For foreign investors, this raises forecasting error, payment and counterparty risk, and the likelihood of sudden regulatory actions targeting pricing, procurement, or competition.