Rail and mega-infrastructure push

Vietnam is reorganising Vietnam Railways into a national railway group to execute major corridors, including North–South high-speed rail, with charter capital projected ~VND 32.41 trillion (2026–2030). Large urban projects in Ho Chi Minh City also accelerate, improving supply-chain connectivity but raising execution and land risks.

Infrastructure, labor, and logistics fragility

US supply chains remain exposed to chokepoints across ports, rail, and trucking, with labor negotiations and capacity constraints amplifying disruption risk. Importers should diversify entry points, build buffer inventories for critical inputs, and strengthen real-time visibility and contingency routing.

Tax uncertainty and retrospective levies

Court-backed ‘super tax’ recoveries (around Rs310bn) and concerns over retroactive application undermine predictability. Firms face higher effective tax burdens, potential disputes and arbitration risk. This dampens FDI appetite and encourages short-horizon, defensive capital allocation.

Security, service delivery, labour disruption

Persistent crime and intermittent municipal service breakdowns—waste collection stoppages, water-utility strikes, and power-substation incidents—create operational risk for sites, staff mobility and last-mile distribution. Businesses increasingly budget for private security, redundancy, and contractual force-majeure safeguards.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade pact

New US–Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade caps US tariffs at 15% and cuts average tariff burden to about 12.33% via 2,072 exemptions, while Taiwan removes/reduces 99% barriers. Ratification risk and standards alignment affect market access planning.

Verteidigungsboom und Industriepolitik

Deutsche Verteidigungsausgaben sollen 2026 über €108 Mrd. steigen; Großbeschaffungen (z.B. €536 Mio. Drohnen, Rahmen bis €4,3 Mrd.) schaffen Chancen für Zulieferer, IT/AI und Dual-Use, erhöhen aber Kapazitätsengpässe, Compliance-Anforderungen und EU-Koordinationsdruck bei gemeinsamer Beschaffung.

China demand concentration drives volatility

China remains Brazil’s dominant trade partner: January exports to China rose 17.4% to US$6.47bn, and China takes about 72% of Brazilian iron ore exports. Commodity price swings and Chinese demand shifts directly affect revenues, shipping flows, and investment planning.

Energy exports and regional dependency

Eastern Mediterranean gas production and exports underpin power supply and industrial costs; Israel-to-Egypt flows are reported at full pipeline capacity. Yet infrastructure remains exposed to regional security shocks, and counterparties’ payment/contract renegotiation risks can spill over into supply.

Industrial decarbonisation subsidy wave

Paris is deploying large-scale state aid to keep energy‑intensive industry in France: €1.6bn over 15 years for seven sites, targeting ~3.8 Mt CO2/year abatement (~1% of national emissions). Subsidy conditionality and EU state‑aid scrutiny affect project bankability.

Fiscal pressure and policy credibility

Debt and deficits remain sensitive under President Prabowo, with discussion of balancing the budget while funding costly signature programs. Markets may reprice sovereign risk if deficits drift toward the 3% legal cap, affecting rates, FX stability, and public-procurement pipelines.

Migration tightening, labour shortages

Visa rule tightening is depressing skilled-worker and student inflows; analysts warn net migration could turn negative for the first time since 1993. Sectors like construction, care and health face hiring frictions, lifting wage pressure and constraining delivery timelines for UK operations.

Critical minerals re-shoring push

Canberra is accelerating onshore processing and ‘strategic reserve’ policies for critical minerals, backed by allied frameworks and subsidies. Recent antimony shipments highlight momentum, while lithium refining faces cost pressure. Expect incentives, permitting scrutiny, and partner-linked offtake deals.

Labor reclassification and cost risk

A labor-law package aims to extend protections to roughly 5.7–8.6 million freelancers and platform workers via “presumed worker status,” shifting proof burdens to employers. Businesses may face higher labor costs, disputes, and operational redesign toward automation and subcontracting changes.

Labor market tightening and reforms

Unemployment rose to 7.9% (Q4 2025) with youth unemployment at 21.5%. Negotiations to curb ‘ruptures conventionnelles’ target ≥€400 million savings, potentially reducing benefit durations. For employers, this may change separation costs, hiring flexibility, and HR risk management.

Critical minerals export leverage

Beijing’s dominance—about 70% of rare-earth mining and ~90% processing—keeps global manufacturers exposed to licensing delays or sudden controls. Western allies are organizing price floors and stockpiles to de-risk, raising sourcing costs and compliance burdens for China-linked inputs.

Critical minerals bloc and rare-earth strategy

South Korea chairs the US-led FORGE initiative while also building a China hotline and joint committee to stabilize rare-earth imports. Policy includes easing public-sector overseas resource limits and funding mine access, reshaping sourcing, compliance, and procurement for EVs, chips, and defense.

Taiwan Strait gray‑zone disruption

Recent PLA activity—100+ aircraft sorties, missile firings into Taiwan’s contiguous zone, and coast‑guard involvement—supports a ‘quarantine’ coercion risk that raises insurance costs and delays shipping without open war. Supply chains should model rerouting, lead‑time buffers, and energy/port shocks.

Sanctions compliance and leakage risks

Investigations show tens of thousands of sanctioned-brand cars reaching Russia via China, including German models, often reclassified as ‘zero-mileage used’. This heightens legal, reputational and enforcement risk across distributors, logistics and financing; controls must tighten.

Industrial relations and project risk

Rising union activity and expanded workplace rights are increasing operational complexity, notably in WA mining where right-of-entry requests rose ~400% in 12 months. Alongside corruption probes in construction unions, investors should price in schedule risk, bargaining costs, and governance diligence.

Weaponized finance and sanctions risk

US investigations into sanctioned actors using crypto and stablecoins highlight expanding enforcement across digital rails. For cross-border businesses, this raises screening obligations, counterparty risk, and potential payment disruptions, especially in high-risk corridors connected to Iran or Russia.

Black Sea corridor shipping fragility

The maritime corridor carries over 90% of agricultural exports, but repeated strikes on ports and logistics cut shipments by 20–30%, leaving a 10 million‑tonne grain surplus. Businesses face volatile freight rates, schedule unreliability, cargo security exposure, and alternative routing costs.

Lira Volatility and FX Liquidity

Structurally weak long-term capital inflows and limited buffers keep USD/TRY risk elevated, raising import costs and FX debt-service burdens. Market surveys still price ~51–52 USD/TRY horizons, implying ongoing hedging needs, tighter treasury controls, and higher working-capital requirements for import-dependent sectors.

Aid conditionality and fiscal dependence

Ukraine’s budget is heavily war-driven (KSE: 2025 spending US$131.4bn; 71% defence/security; US$39.2bn deficit) and relies on partner financing. EU approved a €90bn loan for 2026–27 and an IMF $8.1bn program is pending, but disbursements hinge on reforms and compliance.

Investment unlock via omnibus law

Government is drafting an “omnibus” investment law to streamline land, permits, property rules, and investor visas, targeting ~THB900bn in realized investment from BOI-approved projects. If enacted, it could shorten project timelines, reduce regulatory friction, and boost greenfield expansion.

Energy strategy pivot to nuclear

The PPE3 energy plan cuts wind/solar targets while backing six new EPR2 reactors (first around 2038) and extending 57 reactors to 50–60 years. Near-term power surpluses and volatile prices pressure EDF, shaping industrial electricity costs and long-horizon investment decisions.

Talent constraints and mobility reforms

Persistent shortages in high-skill engineering and digital roles are pushing Taiwan to expand pathways for foreign professionals and longer-term residence. For multinationals, competition for talent will elevate wage pressure, retention costs, and the strategic value of training, automation, and global staffing models.

Macro volatility and funding constraints

Infrastructure rebuild needs collide with fiscal and SOE balance-sheet limits. Eskom debt and unbundling design shape financing costs, while municipalities’ weak finances constrain service delivery. For investors, this elevates FX, interest-rate and payment-risk premiums, and lengthens due diligence on counterparties.

Industrial policy subsidies reshaping FDI

CHIPS- and clean-energy-linked incentives, paired with conditional tariff exemptions tied to U.S. production capacity, are redirecting foreign investment into U.S. fabs, batteries, and critical materials. Global firms must weigh subsidy capture against localization costs, labor constraints, and policy durability.

Technology dependence and shortages

Despite ‘import substitution’ rhetoric, Russia remains reliant on high-tech imports; Chinese microchips reportedly supply ~90% of needs. Gaps persist in transport and industrial capabilities, raising risks of equipment shortages, degraded maintenance cycles, and unpredictable regulatory interventions to secure inputs.

Infrastructure works disrupt logistics corridors

Large-scale Deutsche Bahn renewals and signalling upgrades are causing multi-month closures, with wider EU freight impacts on the Scandinavia–Mediterranean corridor. Congestion and modal shifts raise lead times and costs; shippers should diversify routes, build buffers, and lock capacity early.

Energy security via US LNG pivot

Taiwan plans major US purchases (2025–2029) including $44.4B LNG/crude, lifting US LNG share toward 25% and reducing reliance on Middle East routes. This reorients energy supply chains, affects power-price risk, and increases the strategic value of resilient terminals and grid investments.

Central bank pivot and rate path

The Bank of Thailand is shifting from rate-only signalling toward broader measures targeting productivity and inequality, while maintaining accommodative policy. Analysts expect a possible cut toward 1.00% in early 2026. Lower rates help borrowers but may not revive investment without reforms.

AI-led boom, labor and wage pressure

AI-driven export demand is lifting activity and wages; regular wages rose 3.09% in 2025 to NT$47,884, beating 1.66% inflation, while electronics overtime hit 27.9 hours. Businesses should expect tighter talent markets, higher labor costs, and capacity strain in electronics supply chains.

Mining law and licensing uncertainty

The Mineral Resources Development Amendment Bill has been criticized for ambiguity, while debates over BEE conditions, beneficiation and application timelines continue. Exploration spend fell to about R781m in 2024 (from R6.2bn in 2006), constraining future output and investor appetite.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

EU partnership on minerals and chips

The EU plans deeper cooperation with Vietnam on critical minerals, semiconductors, and ‘trusted’ 5G, alongside infrastructure investment. Vietnam’s rare earth and gallium potential and its chip packaging base could attract higher-value FDI, but governance, permitting, and technology-transfer constraints remain binding.