Disaster and BCP-driven supply chains

Japan’s exposure to earthquakes and extreme weather is pushing stricter business-continuity planning and inventory strategies. Companies are investing in automated, earthquake-resilient logistics hubs and longer lead-time services to dampen disruption risk, affecting warehousing footprints, insurance costs, and supplier qualification.

Rail logistics reforms and PPPs

Freight rail and ports are opening cautiously to private operators, with Transnet conditionally allocating slots to 11 operators and targeting 250Mt by 2030. However, stalled legislation and unresolved third-party access tariffs keep exporters exposed to bottlenecks, demurrage, and modal shift costs.

EU Accession Negotiations Accelerate Reforms

Ukraine’s EU accession talks are driving economic and regulatory reforms, aiming to align with European standards. While this process opens long-term market access, it also imposes transitional compliance burdens and sectoral adjustments for international investors and exporters.

Auto sector disruption and China competition

Chinese vehicle imports are surging, widening the China trade gap and intensifying pressure on local manufacturing. Government is courting Chinese investment (e.g., potential plant transfers) while considering trade defenses and new-energy-vehicle policy. Suppliers face localisation shifts, pricing pressure and policy uncertainty.

Tariff volatility as negotiation tool

The administration is using tariff threats—up to 100% on Canadian goods and shifting rates for key partners—as leverage in broader negotiations. This raises landed-cost uncertainty, complicates pricing and contracting, and incentivizes nearshoring, dual sourcing, and inventory buffers for import-dependent firms.

Strategic U.S. investment mandate

Seoul is fast‑tracking a special act to operationalize a $350bn U.S. investment pledge, including a state-run investment vehicle. Capital allocation, project selection (including energy), and conditionality will influence Korean corporates’ balance sheets and partner opportunities for foreign suppliers.

Targeted Sectoral Trade Actions

Beyond country tariffs, the U.S. is signaling sector-focused measures (autos, steel/aluminum, aerospace certification disputes) that can abruptly disrupt specific industries. Companies should expect episodic shocks to cross-border flows, inventory strategy, and after-sales service for regulated products.

Defense build-up reshapes industry

La hausse des crédits militaires (+6,5 à +6,7 Md€, budget armées ~57,2 Md€) accélère commandes (sous-marins, blindés, missiles) et renforce exigences de conformité, sécurité et souveraineté. Opportunités pour fournisseurs, mais arbitrages budgétaires pèsent sur autres programmes d’investissement.

Inflación persistente y tasas

Banxico pausó recortes y mantuvo la tasa en 7% tras 12 bajas, elevando pronósticos de inflación y retrasando convergencia al 3% hasta 2T‑2027. Enero marcó 3,79% anual y subyacente 4,52%, afectando costos laborales, demanda y financiamiento corporativo.

Border crossings and movement controls

The limited reopening of Rafah for people—under Israeli security clearance and EU supervision—highlights how border-regime shifts can quickly change labor mobility, humanitarian flows and regional political risk. Businesses should expect sudden permitting changes affecting contractors, travel and project timelines.

Business investment drag and policy uncertainty

UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025 and business investment fell nearly 3%, the biggest drop since early 2021, amid budget uncertainty. Multinationals should expect cautious capex, softer demand, and heightened sensitivity to regulatory or political shocks.

China demand concentration drives volatility

China remains Brazil’s dominant trade partner: January exports to China rose 17.4% to US$6.47bn, and China takes about 72% of Brazilian iron ore exports. Commodity price swings and Chinese demand shifts directly affect revenues, shipping flows, and investment planning.

Maritime services ban on crude

Brussels proposes banning EU shipping, insurance, finance and port services for Russian crude at any price, moving beyond the G7 price cap. If adopted, logistics will shift further to higher‑risk shadow channels, raising freight, delays, and legal liability.

Record EBRD and Foreign Investment Inflows

The EBRD invested a record €2.7 billion in Turkey in 2025, with 91% in the private sector. Major projects include infrastructure and post-earthquake reconstruction, underlining Turkey’s long-term investment appeal and resilience.

Cross-border data and security controls

Data security enforcement and national-security framing continue to complicate cross-border transfers, cloud architecture, and vendor selection. Multinationals must design China-specific data stacks, strengthen incident reporting, and anticipate inspections affecting operations, R&D collaboration, and HR systems.

Industrial zones and SCZONE expansion

The Suez Canal Economic Zone continues upgrading ports and terminals (including new container-handling capacity), positioning Egypt for nearshoring and regional distribution. Benefits include improved clearance and industrial clustering, but investors must assess land allocation terms, utility reliability, and FX-linked input costs.

Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD

A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.

USMCA review and North America

The approaching USMCA review is heightening risk for automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing flows across the US–Canada–Mexico corridor. Threatened tariffs and rules-of-origin pressures incentivize nearshoring but complicate cross-border planning, inventory placement, and long-term supplier commitments.

Robust Non-Oil Growth Bolsters Economic Outlook

Saudi Arabia’s GDP grew 4.5% in 2025, with non-oil sectors expanding 4.9%. Sustained growth in non-hydrocarbon industries is enhancing economic resilience, supporting demand for international goods and services, and diversifying the Kingdom’s role in global supply chains.

Wettlauf Wärmepumpe gegen Fernwärme

Industrie und Versorger konkurrieren um Haushalte: Wärmepumpen-Installationskapazitäten versus Fernwärmeanschluss. Das führt zu volatilem Auftragseingang, Preisdruck und Engpässen bei Handwerk/Planung. Internationale Zulieferer müssen Kapazitäten flexibel steuern und lokale Partnernetze stärken.

Industrial policy and subsidy conditions

CHIPS Act and IRA-era incentives keep steering investment toward U.S. manufacturing and clean energy, often with domestic-content, labor, and sourcing requirements. This reshapes site selection and supplier qualification, while creating tax-credit transfer opportunities and compliance burdens for global operators.

Sanctions-evasion finance via crypto

Investigations and analytics reports allege extensive use of stablecoins and crypto networks by Iranian state-linked entities, including hundreds of millions in USDT and billions moved by IRGC-linked wallets. This increases AML/CTF scrutiny, counterparty risk, and enforcement actions for fintechs.

EU trade friction on palm/nickel

Trade disputes and regulatory barriers with Europe—spanning palm sustainability rules and nickel downstreaming—remain a structural risk for exporters. Firms should anticipate tighter traceability demands, litigation/WTO uncertainty, and potential market-access shifts toward alternative destinations and FTAs.

Semiconductor tariffs and controls

A tightening blend of Section 232 chip tariffs, case-by-case export licensing, and enforcement actions (e.g., a $252m Applied Materials settlement) is reshaping cross-border tech trade, raising compliance costs, and accelerating supply-chain diversification away from China.

Stable Growth and Investment Climate

President Prabowo projects economic growth above 5% with low inflation, driven by industrialization and the new sovereign wealth fund Danantara. The government is rationalizing state-owned enterprises and courting foreign investors, enhancing Indonesia’s appeal as a stable investment destination.

Expanding sanctions and enforcement

EU’s proposed 20th package broadens restrictions on energy, banks, goods and services, adds 43 shadow-fleet vessels (≈640 total), and targets third‑country facilitators. Heightened secondary‑sanctions exposure raises compliance costs and transaction refusal risk for global firms.

India-Canada Energy and Minerals Reset

Canada and India are negotiating broad accords on energy, critical minerals, and AI, aiming to double bilateral trade by 2030. This diplomatic reset opens new markets for Canadian resources, supports supply chain diversification, and strengthens Canada’s position in Asian growth markets.

Crypto-based payments and enforcement

Sanctions and FX scarcity are accelerating use of crypto and stablecoins for trade settlement and wealth preservation, drawing increased OFAC attention and first-time sanctions on exchanges tied to Iran. This raises AML/KYC burdens and counterparty screening complexity for fintech and traders.

Internal Unrest and Political Crackdown

Mass protests over economic hardship and government repression have resulted in thousands of deaths and ongoing internet blackouts. Political instability and human rights concerns heighten unpredictability for foreign investors and may trigger further international punitive measures.

Ports and logistics corridor expansion

Egypt is building seven multimodal trade corridors, expanding ports with ~70 km of new deep-water berths and scaling dry ports toward 33. A new semi-automated Sokhna container terminal (>$1.8bn) improves throughput, but execution and tariff predictability matter.

Volatile tariff regime and litigation

U.S. tariffs are shifting via exemptions, court challenges and congressional maneuvering, complicating pricing and customs planning. Forecast U.S. container imports fall 2% in H1 2026, with March down 12% year-on-year amid uncertainty over tariff legality and scope.

US–Taiwan reciprocal trade pact

A newly signed U.S.–Taiwan trade agreement caps U.S. tariffs at 15% and exempts 2,072 product categories, cutting average tariffs to ~12.33%. Taiwan will liberalize most U.S. imports and commit large purchases (e.g., US$44.4B LNG/crude) affecting sourcing strategies.

U.S. tariff snapback risk

Washington threatens restoring “reciprocal” tariffs to 25% from 15% if Seoul’s trade-deal legislation and non‑tariff barrier talks stall. Autos, pharma, lumber and broad exports face margin shocks, contract repricing, and accelerated U.S. localization decisions.

USMCA review and tariff risk

The July 2026 USMCA joint review is opening talks on stricter rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, labor enforcement and anti-dumping. Fitch warns “zombie-mode” annual renewals. Uncertainty raises compliance costs and chills long-horizon manufacturing investment.

CBAM and green compliance pressure

EU officials explicitly linked deeper trade integration to climate alignment, warning Turkish exporters about Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism exposure without compatible carbon pricing and reporting. Carbon-cost pass-through could hit steel, cement, aluminum and chemicals, driving urgent decarbonization and MRV investments.

Regulatory enforcement and raids risk

China’s security-focused regulatory climate—anti-espionage, state-secrets, and data-related enforcement—raises due-diligence and operational risk for foreign firms. Expect tighter controls on information flows, heightened scrutiny of consulting, and increased need for localized compliance and document governance.