Oil exports shift toward Asia

Discounted Iranian crude continues flowing via opaque logistics and intermediaries, with China and others adjusting procurement amid wider sanctions on other producers. For energy, shipping, and trading firms, this sustains volume but raises legal exposure, documentation risk, and payment complexity.

Semiconductor protectionism and reshoring

A targeted 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips, coupled with Section 232 investigations and “tariff offset” concepts, aims to accelerate domestic capacity. Firms face higher component costs, potential broader duties on derivative products, and pressure to localize manufacturing and secure chip inputs.

Ethical and Legal Risks in Foreign Investment

International investment in Israeli government bonds faces mounting scrutiny due to human rights concerns and legal risks. Institutional investors are debating divestment, with ethical considerations increasingly influencing capital flows and reputational risk for global businesses.

District heating investment surge

City utilities are accelerating Wärmenetze expansion and modernization, including low‑temperature networks and large heat pumps. This drives major capex opportunities for foreign EPCs, pipe and insulation suppliers, and control-system vendors, but also heightens exposure to permitting delays and municipal procurement rules.

Energy grid strikes, blackout risk

Russia’s intensified strikes on power plants, pipelines and cables have produced recurring outages and higher industrial downtime. The NBU estimates a 6% electricity deficit in 2026, shaving ~0.4pp off growth and raising operating costs, logistics disruption and force-majeure risk.

China duty-free access pivot

South Africa and China signed a framework toward duty-free access for selected goods via an “Early Harvest” deal by end-March 2026, amid US tariff pressure. Opportunity expands market access and investment, but raises competitive pressure from imports and dependency risks.

Electricity market and hydro reform

Le Parlement avance une réforme des barrages: passage des concessions à un régime d’autorisation, fin de contentieux UE et relance d’investissements. Mais mise aux enchères d’au moins 40% des capacités, plafonnement EDF, créent risques de prix et de contrats long terme.

US–China trade realignment pressure

South Africa is navigating rising US trade frictions, including 30% tariffs on some exports and lingering sanctions risk, while deepening China ties via a framework/early-harvest deal promising duty-free access. Firms should plan for rules-of-origin, retaliation and market diversification.

FX controls and dong volatility

Vietnam’s USD/VND dynamics remain sensitive to global rates; the SBV set a central rate at 25,098 VND/USD (Jan 27) while authorities prepare stricter penalties for illegal FX trading under Decree 340/2025 (effective Feb 9, 2026). Hedging and repatriation planning matter.

AI regulation and compliance burden

China is expanding AI governance via draft laws and sector rules, emphasizing safety, content controls, and data governance. Foreign firms deploying AI or integrating Chinese models face product localization, auditability demands, and higher legal exposure around censorship and algorithm accountability.

EU Trade Policy Realignment and Protectionism

Germany is navigating shifting EU trade policies, including new deals with India and Mercosur, and stricter rules on public funding for non-European production. Rising protectionism and regulatory changes could alter market access, supply chain strategies, and compliance costs for multinationals.

High-risk Black Sea shipping

Merchant shipping faces drone attacks, sea mines, GNSS jamming/spoofing, and sudden port stoppages under ISPS Level 3. Operational disruption and claims exposure rise for hull, cargo, delay, and crew welfare, complicating charterparty clauses, safe-port warranties, and routing decisions.

Consolidation and cross-border M&A wave

A growing pipeline of regional-bank mergers and portfolio shrinkage is reshaping local banking competition. Consolidation can reduce relationship lending, alter treasury-service pricing, and force corporates to re-paper facilities—creating execution risk for acquisitions, capex projects, and vendor financing.

Energy Import Dependence and Transition

Energy prices remain a key macro risk; IMF flags shocks like higher energy costs as inflation-extending. At the same time, expanding renewables and nuclear projects reshape industrial power pricing and grid investment. Energy-intensive manufacturers should plan for tariff volatility and decarbonization requirements.

Foreign real estate ownership liberalization

New rules enabling foreign ownership of land (with limits in Makkah/Madinah) are lifting international demand for Saudi property and mixed-use developments. This improves investment entry options and collateralization, but requires careful title, zoning, and regulatory due diligence.

Border crossings and movement constraints

Rafah’s limited reopening and intensive screening regimes underscore persistent frictions in people movement and (indirectly) trade flows. Firms relying on regional staff mobility, humanitarian/contractor access, or cross-border services should plan for sudden closures, enhanced vetting and longer lead times.

Verteidigungsboom und Beschaffung

Deutschlands Aufrüstung beschleunigt Investitionen: über 108 Mrd. € stehen für Modernisierung bereit; zusätzlich 536 Mio. € für loitering munitions, Rahmen bis 4,3 Mrd. €. Chancen entstehen für Zulieferer, Dual-Use-Technologien und IT, aber Exportkontrollen, Compliance und Kapazitätsengpässe nehmen zu.

Section 232 national-security tariffs

Section 232 tools remain active beyond steel and aluminum, with investigations spanning pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, aircraft, and more. Even where partner deals grant partial relief, uncertainty around scope and timing complicates long-term supplier selection and U.S. market pricing strategies.

Automotive Sector Policy Shifts

The automotive industry is navigating trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and a flood of cheap imports, particularly from China. The government is considering tariff adjustments and new energy vehicle policies, with the sector’s future hinging on reform momentum and global market access.

US tariff and NTB pressure

Washington is threatening to restore 25% tariffs unless Seoul delivers on a $350bn US investment pledge and eases non-tariff barriers (digital rules, agriculture, auto/pharma certification). Policy uncertainty raises pricing, compliance, and sourcing risks for exporters.

Industriewandel Auto- und EV-Markt

Die Re-Industrialisierung des Autosektors wird durch Politik und Nachfrage geprägt: Neue E-Auto-Förderung 2026–2029 umfasst 3 Mrd. € und Zuschüsse von 1.500–6.000 € (einkommensabhängig). Das verschiebt Absatzplanung, Batterielieferketten, Handelsstrategien und Wettbewerb, inkl. chinesischer Anbieter.

Port congestion and export delays

Transnet’s operational fragility—illustrated by Cape Town container backlogs leaving roughly R1bn of fruit exports delayed—raises costs, spoilage risk and schedule uncertainty. Low global port performance rankings and equipment breakdowns drive rerouting, higher inland transport spend, and volatile lead times.

Industrial energy costs and grid build

Industry faces persistently high electricity costs and an estimated ~£80bn transmission-grid expansion to 2031. While network-charge discounts broaden, details remain unclear. Energy-intensive manufacturing may see closures or relocation, affecting supplier bases and UK production economics.

UK–EU border frictions endure

Post‑Brexit customs and SPS requirements, the Border Target Operating Model, and Northern Ireland arrangements continue to reshape UK–EU flows. Firms face documentation risk, delays, and higher logistics overheads, driving route diversification, inventory buffers, and reconfiguration of distribution hubs serving EU markets.

Semiconductor controls and AI choke points

Tighter export controls, selective approvals, and new tariffs on advanced chips are reshaping global tech supply chains. Firms face compliance burdens, China retaliation risk, and higher hardware costs; U.S.-based capacity and trusted suppliers gain strategic priority.

Energia, capacidade e risco climático

A Aneel aprovou leilões de reserva de capacidade em março, com preço-teto de até R$ 1,6 milhão/MW-ano e 368 projetos cadastrados. O mix renovável exige reforço de potência firme e transmissão; eventos climáticos aumentam riscos de custo e continuidade operacional.

Environmental licensing and ESG exposure

Congressional disputes over environmental licensing reforms and tighter deforestation scrutiny are increasing permitting uncertainty for infrastructure, mining and agribusiness. Exporters face rising compliance demands—especially linked to deforestation-free requirements—raising audit, traceability and contract-risk costs across supply chains.

Semiconductor Supply Chain Dominance

Taiwan remains the global leader in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with TSMC and related firms central to AI, electronics, and automotive supply chains. Recent US-Taiwan deals reinforce this role, but also expose the sector to geopolitical pressures and relocation risks.

US tariffs hit German exports

New US tariff measures are reducing German competitiveness: exports to the US fell 9.3% in 2025 to ~€147bn and the bilateral surplus narrowed to €52.2bn. Firms should reassess pricing, localization and route-to-market for North America.

USMCA review and North America

The approaching USMCA review is heightening risk for automotive, agriculture, and manufacturing flows across the US–Canada–Mexico corridor. Threatened tariffs and rules-of-origin pressures incentivize nearshoring but complicate cross-border planning, inventory placement, and long-term supplier commitments.

E-Commerce and Logistics Transformation

South Korea’s logistics and third-party logistics (3PL) markets are expanding rapidly, fueled by e-commerce growth, technology adoption, and sustainability efforts. The market is projected to reach $41.7 billion by 2033, with trends toward omnichannel logistics, customized solutions, and green practices shaping operational strategies.

Semiconductor-led growth and policy concentration

Exports remain chip-driven, deepening a “K-shaped” economy where semiconductors outperform domestic-demand sectors. For investors and suppliers, this concentrates opportunity and risk in advanced-node ecosystems, while prompting closer alignment with allied export-control and supply-chain security priorities.

AI and Technology Export Boom

Taiwan’s economy grew 8.6% in 2025, driven by surging AI-related exports and technology shipments, especially to the US. This boom supports robust corporate profits and investment, but exposes the economy to volatility from tech cycles and trade policy shifts.

Political Polarization and Nationalist Sentiment

Rising nationalist sentiment linked to border tensions with Cambodia is shaping electoral outcomes and policy direction. Persistent influence of military and conservative elites creates uncertainty for reform, regulatory stability, and the investment climate, especially during election cycles.

الخصخصة وإعادة هيكلة الشركات الحكومية

تسريع برنامج تقليص دور الدولة عبر إعداد 60 شركة: نقل 40 لصندوق مصر السيادي وتجهيز 20 للقيد/الطرح في البورصة، مع إنشاء منصب نائب رئيس وزراء للشؤون الاقتصادية. ذلك يخلق فرص استحواذ وشراكات، لكنه يتطلب وضوحاً في الحوكمة والتقييمات وحقوق المستثمرين.

Procurement reforms open to nonresidents

From 1 July 2026, procurement bid evaluation will be VAT-neutral in Prozorro, displaying expected values and comparing offers without VAT for residents and nonresidents. This improves bid comparability and could increase foreign participation in state tenders and reconstruction supply.