US tariffs hit exporters

New US tariffs are undermining Turkish exporters’ competitiveness, notably in olive oil and textiles. Olive oil now faces a 12.5% tariff versus 10% for the EU and zero for Tunisia, while textile orders risk shifting to Vietnam and Bangladesh.

US-India trade deal negotiations

India and the US are advancing a bilateral trade framework, with talks covering tariffs, excess-capacity probes and market access. Around 45% of India’s exports to the US reportedly remain exempt from additional duties, so negotiations could materially affect investment planning and export sector outlooks.

US tariff threat escalates

Washington warned its mooted 100% tariff on UK goods over Britain’s 2% digital services tax is “not a bluff”. With the US the UK’s largest single-country export market, exporters face heightened pricing, market-access and investment-planning uncertainty.

Shadow fleet enforcement intensifies

US measures now target nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iranian oil, petrochemical and shipping networks across Hong Kong, Singapore, the UAE and elsewhere. This intensifies vessel-screening, beneficial-ownership and sanctions-due-diligence requirements for charterers, insurers, commodity traders and port operators.

Municipal service decay and recovery

Reports from Johannesburg, Northern Cape metros and Nelson Mandela Bay show collapsing water, sewage, roads and electricity systems alongside debt and weak revenue collection. This raises operating costs, threatens site selection, and increases dependence on municipalities with uneven recovery capacity.

Tariff Authority Legal Workarounds

After the Supreme Court curbed emergency tariff powers, the administration shifted to Section 122, Section 301, and Section 338 tools, sustaining 10%–12.5% duties on many partners. For businesses, trade policy volatility and legal uncertainty remain central planning risks.

IMF Review Drives Reforms

A September IMF mission will assess Pakistan’s $7 billion programme, focusing on sovereign wealth fund rules, state-owned enterprise governance and anti-corruption commitments. Continued compliance is central to official financing, investor confidence, procurement transparency and the broader operating environment for international firms.

China link drives enforcement risk

China remains Iran’s dominant seaborne oil customer, taking more than 80% of shipped volumes according to Kpler data cited in reporting. That makes Chinese buyers, intermediaries, insurers and banks central to sanctions enforcement risk and possible wider trade friction.

Labor shortages disrupt sectors

Mobilization of reservists and the loss of many Palestinian workers are tightening labor markets, especially in construction and tourism. With unemployment under 3% and wages rising, companies face recruitment difficulty, cost inflation and project delays across labor-intensive operations.

Budget squeeze may hit business

France’s worsening budget deficit is set to dominate autumn politics, with reports of possible additional taxes on businesses as the government seeks resources for climate recovery and deficit control. This raises downside risks for corporate margins, investment planning, and policy predictability.

Energy and input costs rise

Producer prices rose 3.0% year on year in July, the strongest increase in over three years, while consumer inflation reached 2.8%. Energy costs rose 3.8%, mineral oil products 31.4%, and intermediate goods 5.4%, increasing procurement costs, pricing pressure, and working-capital needs across sectors.

Tariff leverage over industries

US tariff pressure remains a live business risk, with prior threats to raise rates from 15% to 25% if Seoul moves too slowly on agreed commitments. Autos, steel, semiconductors, batteries, and shipbuilding remain exposed to sudden policy shifts affecting margins and investment returns.

Property Slump Strains Fiscal Capacity

China’s property downturn continues to pressure local finances and broader growth. Land-sale revenue reportedly fell from 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 4.2 trillion in 2025, with first-half 2026 revenue down 31.5% year-on-year, limiting stimulus flexibility and heightening local government financial risk.

Aranceles sectoriales de Estados Unidos

México sigue presionando para reducir aranceles de 25% a automóviles y 50% a acero, mientras alrededor de 85% de sus exportaciones a EE.UU. mantiene trato preferencial. La persistencia de gravámenes sectoriales afecta márgenes, inversión manufacturera y decisiones de localización.

Election Interference Worries Businesses

Brazil’s election cycle has become a material country-risk factor, with 50% of voters believing foreign interference is possible and 18% saying it would not be a problem. Reports cite tariffs, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure as part of the political environment.

Automotive Rules of Origin Pressure

U.S. negotiators are pushing for stricter rules of origin and more U.S.-specific content in vehicles, challenging North American production integration. This directly affects automakers, suppliers, and cross-border manufacturing strategies by raising compliance costs and potentially shifting sourcing decisions.

Rupiah and subsidy risks

The rupiah’s move to Rp17,748 per US dollar has been shaped by Middle East tensions, oil prices and Fed uncertainty, while plans to cut subsidized fuel quotas by 58.5% by 2027 could pressure inflation, household demand and imported-input costs for businesses.

Canada diversifies beyond U.S. market

Analysts said Canada should expand energy and materials sales toward Europe and other markets, noting stronger EU demand for Canadian aluminium. This shift reflects rising concern over U.S. dependence and may redirect trade, logistics and capital allocation strategies.

Refinery Strikes Reshape Fuel Trade

Repeated Ukrainian drone attacks have cut Russian fuel output by as much as 70%, triggered rationing, and pushed Russia to import gasoline from India, Turkey, and Morocco. Businesses face disrupted domestic logistics, export bans, and volatile supply availability.

Industrial competitiveness structurally weakens

German manufacturers report worsening positions at home and abroad, especially autos, metals, chemicals and machinery. Ifo found 25.4% of industrial firms see weaker competitiveness outside the EU, underscoring structural cost and productivity problems that may accelerate offshoring and consolidation.

Steel Auto Tariff Pressure

Mexico is negotiating to reduce U.S. tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on vehicles, creating immediate margin, sourcing, and production risks for manufacturers, exporters, and suppliers tied to North American industrial chains.

Escalating Secondary Sanctions Risk

Washington is preparing the toughest sanctions yet, extending pressure beyond Iran to foreign banks, ports, airports and businesses. This raises acute compliance, payment and counterparty risks for firms with any indirect Iran exposure, especially through Gulf and Asian intermediaries.

Critical Minerals Gain Leverage

U.S. negotiators are seeking preferential access to Canadian critical minerals, while Canada positions minerals as strategic leverage in broader trade discussions. The issue raises stakes for mining investment, downstream battery supply chains, and foreign participation in resource projects linked to security priorities.

Indo-Pacific defence ties expand

The UK and India advanced their Ten-Year Defence Industrial Roadmap, emphasizing joint R&D, co-development and maritime security cooperation. For international firms, this broadens partnership routes into Indo-Pacific programmes, but may also increase local-content expectations, technology-sharing sensitivities and competitive pressure in strategic sectors.

Grey-zone blockade normalization risk

Recent drills, coast guard patrols and foreign-navy operations east of Taiwan indicate a growing grey-zone blockade scenario. For business, the key risk is shipping disruption without formal war, raising freight, insurance and legal uncertainty for regional trade routes.

US chip tariffs hit Taiwan

Recent reports say Washington is considering new semiconductor tariffs that could extend to AI servers, laptops and gaming devices, with exemptions tied to US manufacturing investment. This raises cost, pricing and location risks across Taiwan-centered electronics and AI supply chains.

Tech Regulation Bilateral Irritant

U.S. concerns over South Korean regulation of American technology platforms, including scrutiny linked to Coupang and misinformation rules, have become a bilateral issue. Heightened regulatory friction may affect digital trade, platform compliance costs, foreign investor sentiment, and broader market-access negotiations.

Cross-strait military pressure broadens

Chinese naval activity east of Taiwan, including a first exercise with an Indonesian frigate, is being assessed as a move to normalize operations around potential resupply routes. For business, this elevates contingency planning needs for shipping, insurance, logistics and energy security.

China remains critical oil buyer

Despite heavier US pressure, China still absorbs the vast majority of Iran’s shipped oil, with estimates above 80% in 2025 and volumes still substantial in 2026. This keeps Iran’s export lifeline alive while exposing refiners, traders, banks and shippers to sanctions escalation.

Trade Diversification Beyond China

Thai leaders are actively broadening commercial ties with Australia, New Zealand, Russia, and other partners as concern grows over a $46.22 billion first-half 2026 trade deficit with China. This diversification push could reshape sourcing, market access, and bilateral investment flows.

External financing and reserve support

Islamabad is awaiting a US decision on a requested $10 billion Exchange Stabilisation Facility while seeking longer bilateral maturities and EXIM engagement. Approval would strengthen reserves, ease rupee pressure and reduce refinancing stress, with direct implications for import capacity and payment stability.

USMCA Review And Trade Reset

The collapse of talks and U.S. refusal to renew the USMCA on its prior basis have intensified uncertainty around North American trade rules. Businesses now face a more fragile framework for cross-border manufacturing, tariff exemptions, and long-term investment decisions.

China Ties Stabilized, Still Fragile

Australia-China trade has normalized after roughly US$20 billion in Chinese sanctions were unwound, yet the relationship remains a cautious ‘good enough’ baseline. Businesses benefit from restored commodity access, but should expect volatility from persistent security and technology disputes.

Sectoral Trade Disputes Expanding

Beyond headline tariffs, Mexico faces new sector-specific disputes including U.S. anti-dumping duties of 3.37% to 5.28% on Mexican strawberries, signaling a wider pattern of case-by-case trade frictions that can spill into regulatory and legal costs.

Shipbuilding emerges as strategic lever

Shipbuilding has become central to Korea-US economic bargaining, with $150 billion of the investment framework linked to the sector. Korean yards could gain access to U.S. demand and defense-related opportunities, but firms also face localization requirements, technology-sharing questions and political oversight.

E1 Plan Raises Investment Risk

Israel’s E1 settlement tenders triggered coordinated criticism from the UK, Germany, Italy, and others, with governments warning the project could make a Palestinian state unviable. Business risk rises for contractors, financiers, advertisers, and firms exposed to disputed-territory work.