China tech controls tighten further

Stricter export controls and licensing conditions on advanced semiconductors (e.g., Nvidia H200) and enforcement actions (e.g., Applied Materials $252m penalty for SMIC-linked exports) raise compliance burdens, restrict China revenue, and accelerate redesign, re-routing, and localization of tech supply chains.

Escalating secondary sanctions pressure

The US is tightening “maximum pressure” through new designations on Iran’s oil/petrochemical networks and vessels, plus threats of blanket tariffs on countries trading with Tehran. This raises compliance, banking, and counterparty risks for global firms and intermediaries.

Tariff activism and reciprocity rates

Tariffs are being used as a standing policy lever—e.g., a reciprocal 18% rate applied to Indian-origin goods under executive authority—raising import costs, increasing pricing volatility, and incentivizing firms to re-route sourcing, renegotiate contracts, and localize production.

Tariff volatility and legal fights

U.S. tariff policy remains fluid, including renewed baseline/reciprocal tariff concepts and active court challenges over executive authority. Importers face pricing uncertainty, sudden compliance changes, and higher landed-cost risk, especially for China-, Canada-, and Mexico-linked supply chains.

Tech controls and AI supply chains

Evolving U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips and tools create uncertainty for Thailand’s electronics exports, data-center investment and re-export trade through regional hubs. Multinationals should review end-use/end-user controls, supplier traceability, and technology localization plans.

Iran shadow-fleet enforcement escalation

New U.S. actions target Iranian petrochemical/oil networks—sanctioning entities and dozens of vessels—aiming to raise costs and risks for illicit shipping. This increases maritime compliance burdens, insurance/chartering uncertainty, and potential energy-price volatility affecting global input costs.

Shadow fleet disruption and seizures

Western maritime posture is shifting from monitoring to interdiction: boarding, detentions, and potential seizures of falsely flagged tankers are rising. Russia is reflagging vessels to regain protection, but insurers, shipowners, and charterers face higher legal, safety, and reputational risks on Russia-linked routes.

Red Sea and Suez volatility

Shipping disruptions tied to Houthi threats against Israel-linked vessels continue to reshape routing and costs. Even as some carriers test Suez returns, renewed escalation risks keep freight rates, lead times, and inventory buffers volatile for Asia–Europe supply chains.

Power tariffs and circular debt

Energy-sector reform remains central to IMF conditionality. Tariff redesign and circular-debt containment can shift cost burdens between households and industry, affecting margins, plant uptime and pricing. Investors face policy risk around subsidies, DISCO recoveries, and contract enforcement in generation and distribution.

Suez/Red Sea shipping normalization

Carrier returns to Suez (Maersk–Hapag-Lloyd Gemini) signal gradual reopening after Houthi-linked disruptions. Suez traffic and revenue rebounded (revenue +24.5%, traffic +9%). However, renewed regional escalation could force Cape diversions, raising lead times and costs.

Grid constraints reshape renewables rollout

Berlin plans to make wind and clean-power developers pay for grid connections and to better align renewables expansion with network build-out. Higher project costs, slower connection timelines and curtailment risks can affect PPAs, site selection and data-center/industrial electrification plans.

Reconfiguración automotriz y China

Cierres y reestructuraciones abren espacio a fabricantes chinos. BYD y Geely buscan comprar la planta Nissan‑Mercedes (230.000 unidades/año) mientras México intenta aplazar inversiones chinas para no tensionar negociaciones con EE. UU.; impactos en cadenas regionales y compliance de origen.

Industriekrise und Exportdruck

Deutschlands Wachstum bleibt schwach (2025: +0,2%; Prognose 2026: +1,0%), während die Industrie weiter schrumpft. US-Zölle und stärkere Konkurrenz aus China belasten Exporte und Margen; Investitionen verlagern sich, Lieferketten werden neu ausgerichtet und Kosten steigen.

Energy security under blockade scenarios

Taiwan’s import dependence, especially for LNG, creates acute vulnerability to maritime interference. Policy efforts to prioritize energy security underline risks of power shortages and industrial curtailment, affecting fabs, chemicals, and data centers with high uptime requirements.

Baht volatility and US watchlist

Thailand’s placement on the US Treasury currency watchlist and central bank efforts to curb baht swings—incl. tighter online gold-trading limits (50m baht/day cap from March 1)—raise FX-management sensitivity. Export pricing, profit repatriation, and hedging costs may shift.

FX liquidity and rupee volatility

External debt servicing and episodic reserve drawdowns keep FX liquidity tight, raising risks of delayed import payments, profit repatriation frictions and higher hedging costs. Firms should stress-test PKR moves, secure confirmed LCs, and diversify funding sources and invoicing currencies.

Plan masivo de infraestructura y energía

El gobierno lanzó un plan 2026‑2030 de MXN 5.6 billones (≈US$323 mil millones) y ~1,500 proyectos, con energía como rubro principal. Puede mejorar logística (puertos, trenes, carreteras) y confiabilidad energética, pero exige marcos “bancables” y certidumbre contractual.

Cybersecurity and data regulation tightening

Rising cyber and foreign-interference concerns are driving stricter critical-infrastructure security expectations and data-governance requirements. Multinationals should anticipate higher compliance costs, vendor-risk audits, and incident-reporting duties, influencing cloud sourcing, cross-border data flows, and M&A diligence.

Mega logistics buildout: Land Bridge

The THB990bn ‘Land Bridge’/Southern Economic Corridor plan could tender within four years under a PPP Net Cost model, linking Andaman and Gulf ports plus rail/motorway. If executed, it reshapes regional routing, distribution footprints and industrial-site valuations across Thailand.

Economic security screening tightens

Tokyo is moving toward a “Japan CFIUS” and revising economic-security law to backstop designated overseas projects via JBIC subordinated capital, plus stricter land and sensitive-sector reviews. Multinationals should expect more approvals, disclosures, and partner diligence in critical industries.

Stablecoins and payments disintermediation

Rapid stablecoin growth threatens to siphon deposits from banks (estimates up to $500bn by 2028 in developed markets) and disrupt fee income. For corporates, faster settlement may help, but deposit outflows can weaken regional lenders’ credit provision and liquidity buffers.

Currency management and capital shifts

The yuan has strengthened toward multi‑year highs, but authorities are signaling caution to avoid rapid appreciation. Reports of guidance to curb bank U.S. Treasury exposure align with reserve diversification and yuan internationalization, affecting FX hedging costs, repatriation strategy, and USD funding assumptions.

BEG subsidies and budget risk

Federal BEG/BAFA support is critical to Wärmewende economics, but annual budget ceilings and frequent program adjustments create stop‑start ordering behavior. International suppliers face higher payment-cycle uncertainty, while investors must model demand cliffs, compliance documentation, and administrative throughput constraints.

Cybersecurity mandates for supply chains

CISA directives to replace end-of-life edge devices and tighter contractor cyber rules (e.g., CMMC 2.0 rollout) raise compliance costs and vendor requirements. Noncompliance can block federal contracts and increase breach risk, affecting logistics, OT environments, and cross-border data flows.

Energy transition, nuclear restart optionality

Japan’s decarbonisation path remains hybrid: renewables growth alongside potential nuclear restarts and new flexibility markets. This uncertainty affects long-term power pricing, siting of energy-intensive assets, and PPAs; it also shapes LNG demand forecasts and contract flexibility requirements for utilities and traders.

Technology dependence and import substitution gaps

Despite ‘technological sovereignty’ ambitions, Russia remains reliant on imported high-tech inputs; estimates suggest China supplies about 90% of microchips, and key sector self-sufficiency targets lag. Supply chains face quality, substitution, and single-supplier risks, plus heightened export-control exposure.

Geoeconomic diversification toward Gulf

Berlin is accelerating diversification of energy and strategic inputs, courting Qatar/Saudi/UAE for LNG and green ammonia. LNG was ~10% of German gas imports in 2025, ~96% from the US, raising concentration risk. New corridors affect contracting and infrastructure plans.

Energy exports and infrastructure constraints

Canada remains a major energy supplier, yet pipeline, LNG, and power-transmission buildout is politically and regulatory complex. This affects long-term contracts and project timelines. Buyers and investors should diversify routes, build flexibility into contracts, and model permitting delays.

Defense industrial expansion and offsets

Large US arms packages and Israel’s push to shift from aid toward joint projects and local production strengthen domestic defense supply chains. This creates opportunities in aerospace, electronics, and dual-use tech, while increasing export-control and end-use scrutiny.

Gaza ceasefire fragility, demilitarization

Israel’s operating environment hinges on a fragile Gaza ceasefire and a staged Hamas disarmament framework, with recurring violations. Any breakdown would rapidly raise security, staffing, and logistics risk, delaying investment decisions and increasing insurance, compliance, and contingency costs.

Cross-strait grey-zone shipping risk

China’s high-tempo drills and coast-guard presence increasingly resemble a “quarantine” playbook, designed to raise insurers’ war-risk premiums and disrupt port operations without open conflict. Any sustained escalation would threaten Taiwan Strait routings, energy imports, and just-in-time supply chains.

USMCA review and exit risk

With a mandatory July 1 review, the White House is reportedly weighing USMCA withdrawal while seeking tougher rules of origin, critical-minerals coordination, and anti-dumping. Heightened uncertainty threatens North American integrated supply chains, automotive planning, and cross-border investment confidence.

UK-Russia sanctions escalation compliance

The UK is tightening Russia measures, including designations and a planned ban on maritime services (transport, insurance) supporting Russian LNG to third countries, alongside a lower oil price cap. This elevates due-diligence needs for shipping, energy, and finance.

Red Sea shipping and security exposure

Saudi ports are positioning for the return of major shipping lines to the Red Sea/Bab al‑Mandab as conditions stabilize, including Jeddah port development discussions. Nevertheless, ongoing regional security volatility can still drive rerouting, insurance premia, and inventory buffering requirements.

Trade rerouting to China

Russia’s export dependence is concentrating on China as India’s intake becomes uncertain and discounts widen (ESPO ~US$9/bbl, Urals ~US$12/bbl vs Brent). This increases buyer power, pricing volatility and settlement complexity, while complicating long-term offtake and investment planning.

Défense: hausse des dépenses 2026

Le budget 2026 prévoit 57,2 Md€ pour les armées (+13%) et une actualisation de la LPM attendue au printemps. Opportunités: marchés défense, cybersécurité, drones; contraintes: conformité export, priorités industrielles, tensions sur capacités et main-d’œuvre.