US-India trade deal recalibration

A framework for a reciprocal interim US–India agreement signals selective tariff relief tied to market-access concessions and rules-of-origin tightening. Companies should expect changing duty rates across textiles, chemicals, machinery and pharma inputs, plus increased focus on standards, NTBs, and supply-chain resilience clauses.

Trade controls and anti-circumvention squeeze

Sanctions are broadening beyond energy to metals, chemicals, critical minerals (over €570m cited), plus export bans on dual-use goods and services. New anti-circumvention tools may restrict exports to high‑risk transshipment hubs, tightening supply of machinery, radios, and industrial inputs to Russia-linked supply chains.

Defense export surge and offsets

Korean shipbuilders and defense firms are competing for mega-deals (e.g., Canada’s submarine program, Saudi R&D cooperation). Large offsets and local-production demands can redirect capacity, tighten specialized supply chains, and create opportunities for foreign partners in co-production and sustainment.

Energy roadmap uncertainty easing

La Programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) 2035, retardée plus de deux ans, doit paraître par décret. Elle confirme 6 EPR (8 en option) et investissements éolien offshore, solaire, géothermie; l’incertitude passée a freiné appels d’offres.

Shadow fleet shipping disruption

Iran’s sanctioned “shadow fleet” faces escalating interdictions and designations, with vessels and intermediaries increasingly targeted. Seizures and ship-to-ship transfer scrutiny raise freight, insurance, and demurrage costs, delaying deliveries and complicating due diligence for traders, terminals, and banks.

Rail connectivity and cross-border links

Saudi Railways moved 30m tonnes freight in 2025 and 14m passengers, displacing ~2m truck trips and cutting 364k tonnes emissions. New rolling-stock deals and the approved Riyadh–Doha high-speed rail deepen regional connectivity for labour, tourism, and time-sensitive cargo.

China exposure and strategic assets

Australia’s China-linked trade and investment exposure remains a top operational risk. Moves to potentially reclaim Darwin Port from a Chinese lessee, alongside AUKUS posture, raise retaliation risk. Western Australia’s iron ore exports to China near A$100bn underline concentration risk for supply and revenues.

Giga-project recalibration and procurement risk

Vision 2030 mega-developments exceed $1 trillion planned value, but timelines and scope are being recalibrated as oil prices soften and execution scrutiny rises. About $115bn in contracts have been awarded since 2019, yet suppliers face more selective, longer procurement cycles.

Trade rerouting and buyer concentration

Russian crude increasingly flows to India and China; enforcement has widened discounts (reported ~$24/bbl in 2025) and pushed some refiners to diversify away from sanctioned suppliers. Buyer concentration heightens counterparty leverage, renegotiation pressure, and sudden demand shifts.

Tighter tax audits and customs scrutiny

SAT is intensifying enforcement against fake invoicing and trade misvaluation, using CFDI data to trigger faster audits and focusing on import/export inconsistencies and improper refunds. Compliance burdens rise for multinationals, making vendor due diligence, transfer pricing and customs documentation more critical.

Domestic semiconductor substitution drive

Accelerating localization in semiconductor equipment and materials, alongside constraints on advanced foreign tools, is reshaping vendor ecosystems. Multinationals face procurement displacement, IP exposure, and evolving partnership terms, while China-based fabs prioritize domestic suppliers and capacity.

Supply Chains Strained by Workforce Loss

Widespread displacement, conscription, and casualties have reduced Ukraine’s workforce and damaged logistics infrastructure. These factors contribute to ongoing supply chain disruptions, limiting service coverage and production capacity, with a challenging outlook for 2026.

Allied defence-industrial deepening (AUKUS)

AUKUS-related procurement and wider defence modernisation continue to reshape industrial partnerships, technology controls and security vetting. Suppliers in shipbuilding, cyber, advanced manufacturing and dual-use tech may see growth, but face stricter export controls, sovereignty requirements and compliance burdens.

Regulatory push for digital sovereignty cloud

France continues to steer sensitive workloads toward “sovereign” cloud and security certifications (e.g., SecNumCloud), affecting public procurement and regulated sectors. Non-EU hyperscalers may need partnerships or ring-fenced operations; compliance can reshape IT sourcing.

Macroeconomic rebound with fiscal strain

IMF projects Israel could grow about 4.8% in 2026 if the ceasefire holds, driven by delayed consumption and investment. However, war-related debt, defense spending and labor constraints pressure fiscal consolidation, influencing taxation, public procurement priorities, and sovereign risk pricing.

Energy security and transition buildout

Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support targeted 10%+ growth, projecting 120–130m toe final energy demand by 2030. Renewables are targeted at 25–30% of primary energy by 2030, alongside LNG import expansion and grid upgrades—critical for industrial reliability and costs.

Food import inspections disrupt logistics

A new food-safety regime (Decree 46) abruptly expanded inspection and certification requirements, stranding 700+ consignments (about 300,000 tonnes) and leaving 1,800+ containers stuck at Cat Lai port. Compliance uncertainty can delay inputs and raise inventory buffers.

Defense posture and maritime asset protection

Israel is prioritizing protection of Eilat approaches and offshore gas infrastructure, reflected in expanded naval readiness. Persistent maritime threats raise operational continuity and security requirements for ports, energy off-take, subsea cables and critical infrastructure suppliers operating nearby.

XR location-based entertainment entry

New immersive entertainment venues in Helsinki signal growing consumer adoption and commercial real-estate partnerships for XR. For foreign operators, Finland offers predictable permitting and high digital readiness, but success depends on local content, labor availability and resilient import logistics for hardware.

Strategic ports and infrastructure sovereignty

Moves to return the Port of Darwin to Australian control highlight rising “sovereignty screening” over logistics assets. Investors in ports, airports, energy and telecoms should expect tougher national-interest tests, deal delays, and possible renegotiation or compensation disputes impacting valuations.

Trade surplus masks concentration risk

Indonesia posted a US$41.05bn 2025 trade surplus (up from US$31.33bn in 2024), with December exports up 11.64% to US$26.35bn led by palm oil and nickel. Heavy commodity dependence heightens exposure to policy shifts and price cycles.

Enerji arzı ve yerli üretim

TPAO’nun Chevron ile olası petrol-doğalgaz işbirliği ve Karadeniz gazı üretim artışı hedefleri enerji arz güvenliğini destekliyor. Orta vadede ithalat faturasını azaltma potansiyeli var; ancak proje takvimi, finansman ve jeopolitik riskler enerji maliyetlerinde dalgalanma yaratabilir.

Tech Controls and China Decoupling

U.S.-China technology rivalry continues to constrain semiconductor and AI supply chains via export controls and licensing, while China accelerates substitution. Firms face dual-ecosystem risks, tighter compliance, potential reconfiguration of R&D and manufacturing footprints, and higher costs for advanced computing capacity.

Финансы, платежи и валютная волатильность

Ограничения на банки и альтернативные платёжные каналы усиливаются; регулятор удерживает жёсткие условия: ключевая ставка снижена до 15,5% (с сигналом дальнейших шагов), что отражает высокую инфляционную неопределённость. Для бизнеса растут FX‑риски и стоимость капитала.

Semiconductor reshoring and tech geopolitics

Washington continues pressing for more Taiwan chip capacity and supply-chain relocation, while Taipei calls large-scale shifts “impossible.” TSMC’s massive US buildout and parallel overseas fabs heighten capex needs, export-control exposure, and dual-footprint operational complexity for suppliers and customers.

Data-center edge boosts XR

Finland’s rapid data‑center buildout and edge computing expansion strengthen local capacity for low‑latency XR rendering and industrial digital twins, improving service reliability for exports. However, proposed electricity-tax changes and grid constraints may reshape operating costs and location choices.

Liberalized Real Estate Laws Attract Foreigners

Recent amendments allow foreign ownership of Saudi land, sparking international interest in major urban and tourism projects. The new framework is reshaping the real estate sector, drawing investors and developers, though restrictions remain in Makkah and Madinah.

Civil defence and business continuity demands

Government focus on reserves, realistic exercises, and city resilience planning raises expectations for private-sector preparedness. Multinationals should update crisis governance, employee safety protocols, and operational continuity plans, including data backups, alternative sites, and supplier switching.

Critical Minerals Supply Chain Resilience

Mexico is central to trilateral efforts with the US, EU, and Japan to secure critical mineral supply chains. Coordinated policies, investment, and new trade frameworks aim to mitigate vulnerabilities, diversify sources, and support strategic industries such as EVs and electronics.

Industrial tariffs and beneficiation policy

Eskom is proposing interim discounted electricity pricing for ferrochrome (e.g., 87c/kWh) and extensions of take-or-pay relief, as smelters struggle with power costs. Such interventions signal ongoing policy activism around beneficiation, affecting mining-linked investors’ cost curves and offtake planning.

Economic-security industrial policy intensifies

Taiwan is deepening “economic security” cooperation with partners, prioritizing trusted supply chains in AI, chips, drones, and critical inputs. This favors vetted vendors and data-governance discipline, but increases screening, documentation, and resilience requirements for cross-border projects and M&A.

Balochistan security and CPEC exposure

Militant attacks in Balochistan underscore elevated security risks around CPEC assets, transport corridors, and Gwadar-linked logistics. Higher security costs, insurance premiums, and project delays weigh on FDI appetite, especially for infrastructure, mining, and energy ventures with long payback periods.

Rupee volatility and policy trilemma

The RBI balances growth-supportive rates with capital flows and currency stability amid heavy government borrowing (gross ~₹17.2 lakh crore planned for FY27). A gradually weaker rupee may aid exporters but raises import costs and FX-hedging needs for firms with dollar inputs or debt.

Geopolitical Risk in Supply Chain Resilience

Australia’s supply chains for critical minerals remain vulnerable to global shocks, with current reserves sufficient for only weeks. The government’s producer-led strategy and strategic reserves seek to enhance resilience, but exposure to geopolitical disruptions persists, affecting manufacturing and technology sectors.

Deforestation-linked trade compliance pressure

EU deforestation rules and tighter buyer due diligence raise traceability demands for soy, beef, coffee and wood supply chains. A Brazilian audit flagged irregularities in soybean biodiesel certification, heightening reputational and market-access risks for exporters and downstream multinationals.

Critical minerals alliance reshaping

Canberra’s A$1.2bn Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (initially gallium, antimony, rare earths) and deeper US-led cooperation (price floors, offtakes) are accelerating non‑China supply chains, creating investment openings but higher compliance, geopolitical and pricing-policy risk for manufacturers.