Industrial overcapacity and price wars

Beijing is attempting to curb destructive competition, including in autos after January sales fell 19.5% y/y. Regulatory moves against below-cost pricing may stabilize margins but can trigger abrupt policy interventions, supplier renegotiations, and compliance investigations for both domestic and JV players.

Tighter foreign investment screening

Approval of Mara Holdings’ acquisition of EDF’s Exaion came with sovereignty safeguards: limits on sensitive data hosting, governance controls, and ongoing ministry monitoring. This underscores heightened scrutiny of strategic tech and infrastructure deals, extending timelines and conditions for foreign acquirers.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing sanctioned 40 Japanese entities, restricting exports of dual-use goods to 20 and putting 20 more on a watch list. Escalation over security tensions raises supply-chain disruption risk for aerospace, electronics and automotive, plus countermeasure uncertainty.

Energy market reform and grid

Electricity market reforms and grid-connection constraints remain pivotal as the UK scales renewables and electrification. Policy choices on pricing, network charges and incremental CfD changes affect power purchase agreements, site selection for energy-intensive industry, and returns in clean infrastructure.

Semiconductor concentration and reshoring

Taiwan remains central to advanced chips, while partners push partial reshoring. Taipei rejects relocating “40%” of the chip supply chain, keeping leading‑edge R&D on-island. Firms should plan for dual footprints, IP controls, and higher capex amid ecosystem limits.

EU trade defense and carbon measures

France supports tougher EU trade defense and climate-linked border measures (e.g., CBAM) amid tensions over Chinese industrial overcapacity. Businesses should expect more customs friction, documentation burdens for embedded carbon, and greater tariff/sanctions uncertainty in China-facing supply chains.

Dollar hedging costs surge

Foreign investors are increasing USD hedge ratios, amplifying dollar swings even without mass Treasury selling. Higher FX-hedging costs reshape portfolio allocation, pricing of long-term supply contracts, and can reduce inward investment appetite while raising working-capital volatility for importers.

Licenciamento ambiental e conflitos

Protestos indígenas bloquearam acesso a terminal no Tapajós, contestando dragagem e privatização de hidrovias, enquanto mudanças no licenciamento aumentam incerteza jurídica. Para agronegócio e mineração, atrasos podem interromper rotas do Arco Norte, encarecer seguros e exigir due diligence socioambiental reforçada.

Banking isolation and AML/FATF constraints

Iran’s limited correspondent banking access and heightened AML risk—reinforced by FATF-related restrictions—constrain trade finance, L/Cs, and settlement options. Firms may rely on costly intermediaries or shadow channels, elevating fraud, seizure, and compliance risk for global groups.

Sanctions escalation and compliance spillovers

The EU’s proposed 20th Russia sanctions package expands energy, shipping, banking, and trade controls (including shadow-fleet listings and maritime services bans). Ukraine-linked firms face tighter due diligence on counterparties, routing, and dual-use items; enforcement pressure increases financing and logistics friction regionwide.

Tariff volatility and legal shifts

Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs and the administration’s pivot to a temporary 10–15% Section 122 global surcharge increase short-term pricing uncertainty, refund litigation risk, and contract renegotiations for importers, exporters, and firms with tariff-indexed supply agreements.

Maquila/IMMEX bajo presión competitiva

El sector maquilador enfrenta menor competitividad y proyectos en pausa por la revisión del T‑MEC. Se reportan 672 programas IMMEX cancelados y casi 600.000 empleos perdidos; aranceles a insumos asiáticos (25–50%) y certificaciones lentas dificultan sustitución de importaciones.

Labor localization tightening (Saudization)

New Nitaqat and profession-specific quotas raise Saudi hiring requirements, including 60% Saudization in key sales/marketing roles from April 2026, plus tighter job-title restrictions. Multinationals face higher payroll costs, talent shortages in niche skills, and operational risk if noncompliant.

Cross-strait coercion and shipping risk

China’s escalating air, naval, and coast-guard activity supports gray-zone “quarantine” tactics that could raise insurance premiums, slow port operations, and disrupt Taiwan-bound shipping without formal war. Firms should stress-test logistics, buffer inventories, and ensure alternative routing and contracts.

Makroihtiyati kredi sıkılaştırması

BDDK ve TCMB, kredi kartı limitleri ile kredili mevduat hesaplarına büyüme sınırları getiriyor; yabancı para kredilerde limit %0,5’e indirildi. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, tüketim talebi ve tahsilat riskleri değişebilir; tedarikçilere vade ve stok politikaları yeniden ayarlanmalı.

Energy diversification and LNG buildout

Turkey is expanding LNG and regasification capacity, planning additional FSRU projects and targeting ~200 million m³/day intake within two years. Long-term LNG contracting (including U.S.-sourced volumes) can improve supply security, but price volatility and infrastructure bottlenecks remain.

Shipping volatility around China routes

Container rates are weakening despite capacity management; heavy blank sailings and shifting Red Sea/Suez routing decisions create schedule unreliability. China exporters and importers face longer lead times, inventory buffering needs, and renegotiation pressure in 2026 freight contracts.

Corporate governance push on cash

Draft revisions to Japan’s corporate governance code would pressure boards to justify large cash/deposit hoards and redirect funds into growth investment. This supports M&A, capex and shareholder returns, but raises expectations on ROIC, disclosure and activist engagement for listed firms.

Défense: hausse des dépenses 2026

Le budget 2026 prévoit 57,2 Md€ pour les armées (+13%) et une actualisation de la LPM attendue au printemps. Opportunités: marchés défense, cybersécurité, drones; contraintes: conformité export, priorités industrielles, tensions sur capacités et main-d’œuvre.

Gaza ceasefire fragility, demilitarization

Israel’s operating environment hinges on a fragile Gaza ceasefire and a staged Hamas disarmament framework, with recurring violations. Any breakdown would rapidly raise security, staffing, and logistics risk, delaying investment decisions and increasing insurance, compliance, and contingency costs.

Suez Canal security-driven volatility

Red Sea risks remain a first-order supply-chain variable. After a Gaza ceasefire, Suez revenues rose 24.5% and major carriers began returning with naval assistance. Any renewed attacks could again divert vessels around Africa, extending transit times and raising costs.

Semiconductor ecosystem and ATMP buildout

India is accelerating chip packaging and ecosystem investments, including the ₹3,700 crore HCL–Foxconn OSAT project and Semiconductor Mission 2.0 funding. Opportunities include supplier clustering and design centers; risks include execution, utilities reliability, and skills constraints.

Fiscalización digital y aduanas

El SAT acelera auditorías basadas en CFDI, cruces bancarios y datos de comercio exterior, priorizando subvaluación, importaciones incoherentes y facturación simulada. Para multinacionales, aumenta el riesgo de ajustes, devoluciones más lentas, y necesidad de gobernanza documental y KYC.

Alta dependencia de China para exportaciones

La concentración de ventas de crudo en China (más de 80% de compras seaborne; estimaciones ~1.38 mb/d) crea vulnerabilidad a cambios regulatorios, controles aduaneros y presión diplomática. Para proveedores y traders, sube el riesgo de contrapartes opacas y descuentos forzados.

Volatile US rate-cut expectations

Markets are highly sensitive to clustered US labor, retail, and CPI releases, with shifting expectations for 2026 Fed cuts. Exchange-rate and financing-cost volatility impacts hedging, M&A timing, inventory financing, and emerging-market capital flows tied to US dollar liquidity.

US/EU trade enforcement risk

Vietnam’s export boom faces rising trade-remedy scrutiny. Recent U.S. antidumping/countervailing duties include hard empty capsules with 47.12% dumping and 2.45% subsidy rates, signalling broader enforcement risk. Exporters should strengthen origin compliance and diversify end-markets.

استقرار النقد والتضخم والسياسة النقدية

الاحتياطيات سجلت نحو 52.59 مليار دولار بنهاية يناير 2026، مع تباطؤ التضخم إلى قرابة 10–12% واتجاه البنك المركزي لخفض الفائدة 100 نقطة أساس. تحسن الاستقرار يدعم الاستيراد والتمويل، لكن التضخم الشهري المتذبذب يبقي مخاطر التسعير والأجور مرتفعة.

Budget-linked import controls, classification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new eight‑digit tariff lines to monitor sensitive imports (including battery separators and refrigerated containers), improving enforcement and analytics. For multinationals, tighter HS classification increases customs documentation burden, audit risk, and potential for targeted safeguard actions.

Foreign investment security tightening

Ottawa is balancing growth and national security under the Investment Canada Act, amid debate about allowing greater Chinese state-owned participation in energy and resources. Case-by-case reviews increase deal uncertainty, lengthen timelines, and can impose mitigation conditions for acquirers and JVs.

Capital markets reform and activism

Commercial Code revisions and rising activist campaigns are pressuring chaebol governance, buybacks, board independence, and capital efficiency to reduce the “Korea discount.” This can unlock valuation upside for investors but increases management distraction, event risk, and M&A complexity.

LNG permitting accelerates exports

A faster, “regular order” approach to LNG export permits and terminal approvals is boosting long-term contracting (often 15–20 years) with Europe and Asia, shaping global gas pricing, supporting US upstream investment, and offering buyers diversification from geopolitically riskier suppliers.

Indo-Pacific decoupling, China risk

An updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy prioritizes critical-mineral diversification, anti-coercion coordination, and tighter technology alignment with like-minded partners. For firms, this raises the likelihood of China-facing export controls, dual-use compliance burdens, and accelerated “China+1” supply-chain restructuring.

Security, crime, and operational continuity

Persistent organised crime and infrastructure sabotage risks raise insurance costs, disrupt logistics and construction, and require higher security spending for sites and transport. Business continuity planning, secure transport corridors, and supplier vetting remain essential, especially for high-value exports.

Regulação de dados e compliance LGPD

A Câmara aprovou MP que transforma a ANPD em agência reguladora, com carreira própria e maior capacidade de fiscalização. Isso tende a elevar enforcement, custos de conformidade e exigências contratuais, especialmente em cadeias com compartilhamento internacional de dados.

Energy roadmap: nuclear-led electrification

The PPE3 to 2035 prioritizes six new EPR2 reactors (first expected 2038) and aims to raise decarbonised energy to 60% of consumption by 2030 while trimming some solar/wind targets. Impacts power prices, grid investment, and energy‑intensive manufacturing location decisions.

Macrostimulus, FX and policy uncertainty

With 2026 growth likely ~4.5–5% and deflation concerns, policy may tilt toward consumption support, fiscal easing and managed yuan flexibility. Businesses should plan for sudden stimulus-driven sector boosts, regulatory fine-tuning, and FX hedging needs for RMB revenues and costs.