Ports and freight connectivity upgrades

Karachi logistics is improving via DP World–Pakistan Railways Pipri freight corridor and new automated bulk-handling equipment, aiming to shift containers from road to rail and reduce turnaround times. Execution risk persists, but successful delivery lowers inland logistics costs and delays.

US Industrial Policy and Onshoring Wave

The US is leveraging trade deals and tariffs to attract unprecedented foreign investment, with over $5 trillion pledged by major partners for domestic manufacturing. This onshoring drive is reshaping global supply chains, especially in semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, but introduces new risks of retaliation, regulatory uncertainty, and supply chain fragmentation as partners hedge against US policy volatility.

Reforma tributária em transição

A migração para CBS/IBS e Imposto Seletivo começa em 2026 e vai até 2033, com mudanças de crédito e cobrança no destino. Empresas precisam adaptar ERP, precificação e contratos; risco de litígios e custos temporários de compliance aumenta.

AI-Driven Layoffs and Workforce Restructuring

A wave of major layoffs is sweeping the US, with Amazon alone cutting 16,000 jobs in January 2026 and UPS reducing up to 30,000 positions. These cuts are driven by rapid adoption of AI and automation, post-pandemic overhiring corrections, and cost pressures from tariffs and inflation. The trend is reshaping labor markets, increasing anxiety, and forcing companies to invest in upskilling or risk investor backlash. This structural shift impacts tech, logistics, retail, and manufacturing, with significant implications for consumer demand and supply chain resilience.

Defense build-up reshapes industry

La hausse des crédits militaires (+6,5 à +6,7 Md€, budget armées ~57,2 Md€) accélère commandes (sous-marins, blindés, missiles) et renforce exigences de conformité, sécurité et souveraineté. Opportunités pour fournisseurs, mais arbitrages budgétaires pèsent sur autres programmes d’investissement.

Low Growth Outlook Amid Fiscal Constraints

The IMF forecasts modest GDP growth of 1.4% in 2026, constrained by domestic structural issues and global risks. Fiscal vulnerabilities limit policy response capacity, making South Africa’s recovery fragile and heightening the need for increased investment and productivity improvements.

ESG and Sustainability Standards Tighten

Germany’s modular building sector is increasingly shaped by strict ESG and sustainability requirements, including CSRD implementation. Compliance with green building standards and lifecycle emissions reporting is now essential for market access, financing, and supply chain integration.

Semiconductor Supply Chain Dominance

Taiwan remains the global leader in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with TSMC and related firms central to AI, electronics, and automotive supply chains. Recent US-Taiwan deals reinforce this role, but also expose the sector to geopolitical pressures and relocation risks.

Persistent Energy Infrastructure Attacks

Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid have caused widespread blackouts and threaten business continuity. Nearly 60% of Kyiv was recently without power, with similar conditions nationwide. Energy insecurity remains a top risk, impacting manufacturing, logistics, and foreign investment confidence.

Industrial decarbonisation via CCUS

The UK is moving carbon capture from planning to build-out: five major CCUS projects reached financial close, with over 100 projects in development and potential 100+ MtCO₂ storage capacity annually by mid‑2030s. Policy clarity and funding pace will shape investment, costs, and competitiveness for heavy industry.

Semiconductor Industry Expansion and Resilience

Massive investments, including TSMC’s Kumamoto project, are transforming Japan’s semiconductor sector, with 6.2 trillion yen projected by 2030. This shift, driven by AI demand and 'de-China' strategies, positions Japan as a key global hub, attracting supply chain partners and foreign capital.

Cross-strait security and blockade risk

Escalating PLA air‑sea operations and Taiwan’s drills raise probability of disruption in the Taiwan Strait. Any quarantine or blockade scenario would delay container flows, spike marine insurance, and force costly rerouting for electronics, machinery, and intermediate goods supply chains.

Tech Controls and China Decoupling

U.S.-China technology rivalry continues to constrain semiconductor and AI supply chains via export controls and licensing, while China accelerates substitution. Firms face dual-ecosystem risks, tighter compliance, potential reconfiguration of R&D and manufacturing footprints, and higher costs for advanced computing capacity.

Macroeconomic Stability and Policy Risks

Consistent 5% growth and low inflation underpin Indonesia’s economic outlook, but recent market turmoil, currency depreciation, and political appointments have heightened concerns over central bank independence, fiscal expansion, and the credibility of long-term investment strategies.

Critical minerals and rare earth security

Seoul is moving to strengthen rare-earth supply chains by easing public-sector limits on overseas resource development, expanding domestic processing and recycling, and coordinating with partners while managing China export-control risks. This supports EV, wind, defense, and electronics supply continuity and investment pipelines.

Red Sea and Suez volatility

Shipping disruptions tied to Houthi threats against Israel-linked vessels continue to reshape routing and costs. Even as some carriers test Suez returns, renewed escalation risks keep freight rates, lead times, and inventory buffers volatile for Asia–Europe supply chains.

Deforestation-linked trade compliance pressure

EU deforestation rules and tighter buyer due diligence raise traceability demands for soy, beef, coffee and wood supply chains. A Brazilian audit flagged irregularities in soybean biodiesel certification, heightening reputational and market-access risks for exporters and downstream multinationals.

Security and Organized Crime Risks

Persistent insecurity, including theft and extortion, remains a top obstacle for business operations. Nearly half of Mexican firms report crime victimization, leading to higher security costs and operational risks, particularly in key industrial regions outside secure zones like Coahuila.

Energy Transition and Hydrogen Leadership

Saudi Arabia is rapidly scaling investments in clean hydrogen, green ammonia, and renewables, surpassing $34 billion in energy transition spending. Major projects and international JVs are positioning the Kingdom as a future leader in low-carbon energy exports and supply chain integration.

Energy Infrastructure Expansion and Security

Egypt is expanding its power grid and accelerating the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant project to meet rising demand and reduce losses. Reliable energy infrastructure is essential for industrial growth, but technical and financial inefficiencies still pose operational risks.

Legal Uncertainty and Corruption Risks

Persistent legal unpredictability, high-profile corruption scandals, and slow reforms deter foreign direct investment. Recent parliamentary bribery cases and anti-corruption investigations highlight systemic governance challenges, which international investors view as a greater risk than the ongoing war itself.

Energy Sector Under Persistent Attack

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure faces repeated strikes, resulting in increased electricity imports and frequent outages. These disruptions raise operational costs for businesses, threaten industrial output, and necessitate investment in resilient and diversified energy solutions.

Digital regulation tightening for platforms

Australia’s under‑16 social media ban (fines up to A$49.5m) and broader eSafety scrutiny are forcing stronger age assurance, content controls and reporting. Multinationals face higher compliance costs, data-handling risk, and potential service changes affecting marketing, customer support and HR.

Currency Volatility and Capital Controls

The ruble’s real effective exchange rate surged 28% in 2025, driven by a trade surplus and high interest rates. While this curbed inflation, it hurt export competitiveness and budget revenues, complicating financial planning for foreign investors and multinational operations.

Shadow Economy and Sanctions Evasion

Iran’s reliance on shadow fleets, barter trade, and crypto channels to bypass sanctions has grown. US Treasury actions against crypto exchanges and shipping networks highlight enforcement risks for counterparties and the need for enhanced due diligence in all Iran-linked transactions.

State-led energy, mixed projects

Mexico is expanding state-directed energy investment while opening “mixed” generation projects where CFE holds majority stakes and offers long-term offtake. This can unlock renewables buildout, yet governance, procurement exceptions and political discretion create contracting, dispute-resolution and bankability complexities for investors.

Hydrogen and ammonia export corridors

Saudi firms are building future clean-fuel export pathways, including planned ammonia shipments from Yanbu to Rostock starting around 2030 and waste-to-hydrogen/SAF partnerships. These signal emerging offtake markets, new industrial clusters, and long-lead infrastructure requirements for investors.

Widespread Civil Unrest and Political Instability

Nationwide protests over economic collapse and political repression have resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests. The instability has led to internet shutdowns and business disruptions, significantly raising operational and security risks for foreign firms.

State-ownership shift and privatization pipeline

Cairo is signaling greater private-sector space via the State Ownership Policy, IPO/asset-sale plans, and “Golden License” fast-tracking. Opportunities are rising in ports, logistics, manufacturing, and services, but execution risk persists around valuation, governance, and military/state-linked competition in key sectors.

Innovation Drive and Industrial Upgrading

Despite headwinds, China continues to invest in AI, green energy, and advanced manufacturing. The government’s focus on innovation and technological self-reliance aims to move up the value chain and sustain competitiveness, but faces challenges from external restrictions and internal imbalances.

Cross-border data and security controls

Data security enforcement and national-security framing continue to complicate cross-border transfers, cloud architecture, and vendor selection. Multinationals must design China-specific data stacks, strengthen incident reporting, and anticipate inspections affecting operations, R&D collaboration, and HR systems.

Ruble Volatility and Financial Policy

The ruble’s real effective exchange rate surged 28% in 2025 due to trade surpluses and high interest rates, reducing inflation but hurting export competitiveness and budget revenues. Currency volatility complicates financial planning, pricing, and investment for international businesses operating in Russia.

Tech Sector Expansion Amid Global Demand

Israel’s technology sector, including AI and semiconductor equipment, is experiencing robust growth, attracting major investments like Nvidia’s new campus. This expansion strengthens Israel’s global tech leadership but also strains local infrastructure and raises competition for talent.

Rare earths processing and project pipeline

Government promotion of 49 mines and 29 processing projects, plus discoveries in gallium/scandium and magnet rare earths, supports Australia’s shift from raw exports to midstream processing. Opportunities are significant, but permitting, capex, and processing technology risk remain decisive.

Rising funding costs, liquidity swings

Short-term liquidity tightened around Tet, pushing interbank rates sharply higher and prompting widespread deposit-rate hikes; Agribank lifted longer tenors up to 6%. Higher financing costs can squeeze working capital, pressure leveraged sectors, and raise hurdle rates for projects.

Surge in Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Foreign investment in Germany more than doubled to €96 billion in 2025, reflecting confidence in its stability, legal certainty, and EU market access. This trend strengthens Germany’s position as a European business hub, but also increases scrutiny on strategic sectors and regulatory frameworks.