Treasury financing and dollar volatility

Large U.S. debt issuance and signs of softer foreign Treasury demand are steepening the yield curve and adding FX uncertainty. Higher funding costs can tighten credit conditions, affect valuations, and alter hedging needs for importers, exporters, and cross-border investors.

Crypto and alternative payments expansion

Russia is scaling crypto for cross‑border settlement, with officials citing roughly 50 billion rubles ($647m) in daily transactions and possible ruble‑stablecoin studies. The EU is moving toward broader crypto transaction bans, raising compliance uncertainty for fintechs and commodity traders.

Kredi koşulları ve makroihtiyati çerçeve

Kredi faizleri yüksek seyrediyor; para politikası aktarımı sınırlı, makroihtiyati tedbirlerin kademeli gevşemesi dezenflasyon hızına bağlı. Kart limitleri gibi adımlar iç talebi etkileyebilir. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, vadeli satış ve stok finansmanı zorlaşıyor.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

China de-risking and coercion exposure

Sino-Japanese tensions tied to Taiwan rhetoric have brought slower customs clearance, tighter controls and rare-earth licensing uncertainty. Firms face compliance and continuity risks in China-linked supply chains, accelerating diversification, inventory buffering and regional relocation decisions.

US market access and tariff uncertainty

AGOA was extended only through 2026 while US ‘reciprocal’ tariffs have hit some South African exports with ~30% levies, pressuring margins and planning. Firms are accelerating diversification toward African, Asian, and Middle Eastern markets, reshaping trade routes and investment priorities.

Natural gas exports and regional deals

Israeli gas flows to Egypt have risen with pipelines reportedly at full capacity, supporting regional power and LNG dynamics. Export reliability and pricing depend on security and contract reforms in Egypt, influencing energy-intensive industries and investment in infrastructure.

Trade exposure to US tariffs

Businesses face heightened external risk from US trade policy uncertainty and potential reciprocal tariffs, which Thai industry groups warn could affect export categories worth over US$45 billion. Firms should stress-test pricing, origin rules, and re-routing options while diversifying markets and suppliers.

Power tariff overhaul, circular debt

IMF-backed electricity tariff restructuring shifts costs via higher fixed charges while cutting some industrial per‑unit rates; inflation could rise and consumer demand weaken. Persistent DISCO losses and circular debt create outage and cost volatility risks for manufacturers and service providers.

Fiscal tightening and policy volatility

France’s 2026 budget was forced through amid a hung parliament, with a deficit around 5–5.4% of GDP and pressure under EU fiscal rules. Expect tax, subsidy and spending adjustments, raising regulatory uncertainty for investors and procurement pipelines.

Won volatility and capital flows

The won remains sensitive to policy and portfolio shifts, with a 5.2% decline since May and scrutiny from U.S. Treasury. The National Pension Service’s 1,438tn won AUM and 0% FX hedging could become a “game changer,” affecting hedging costs and pricing for cross-border firms.

Rising cyber risk to industry

Taiwan’s leadership highlights persistent cyberattacks and infiltration attempts targeting government and key companies. For investors, this elevates requirements for zero-trust security, supply-chain vendor controls, and incident response readiness, particularly in semiconductors, telecoms and critical infrastructure.

EU–Thailand FTA acceleration

Bangkok and Brussels aim to conclude an EU–Thailand FTA by mid-2026, promising tariff reduction and investment momentum, especially in S-curve industries. However, compliance demands on environment, product standards and regulatory alignment will raise costs for lagging manufacturers and SMEs.

Customs reforms and tariff reclassification

Budget 2026 adds 44 new tariff lines and advances trust-based customs measures (longer AEO deferrals, longer advance rulings). This improves import monitoring and classification precision, affecting landed-cost modeling, product coding, and audit readiness for traders.

Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.

Zim sale reshapes trade resilience

Proposed sale of Zim to Hapag-Lloyd/FIMI raises national-security scrutiny over Israel’s dependence on foreign-controlled shipping during emergencies. Requirements like an 11-vessel “golden share” structure may affect route coverage, capacity guarantees, pricing, and strategic supply assurances for critical goods.

Internet shutdowns and cyber risk

Iran’s periodic internet restrictions and heightened cyber activity during crises disrupt communications, cloud access, payments, and remote operations. Firms reliant on digital workflows face downtime, data-security exposure, and continuity planning needs, including alternative connectivity and localization measures.

Energy security via US LNG pivot

Taiwan plans major US purchases (2025–2029) including $44.4B LNG/crude, lifting US LNG share toward 25% and reducing reliance on Middle East routes. This reorients energy supply chains, affects power-price risk, and increases the strategic value of resilient terminals and grid investments.

Mega logistics buildout: Land Bridge

The THB990bn ‘Land Bridge’/Southern Economic Corridor plan could tender within four years under a PPP Net Cost model, linking Andaman and Gulf ports plus rail/motorway. If executed, it reshapes regional routing, distribution footprints and industrial-site valuations across Thailand.

GST enforcement and data-driven compliance

GST compliance is tightening as portals auto-flag mismatches; penalties include input-credit blocks, bank freezes, and arrests over ₹5 crore exposure. Tax authorities plan to mine GST data to widen the direct-tax base, increasing audit probability for firms with weak ERP controls and vendor governance.

Critical minerals industrial policy surge

Australia is accelerating critical-minerals strategy to diversify supply chains away from China, including a A$1.2bn strategic reserve, a A$4bn facility, and production tax incentives, plus US-linked frameworks. This supports new offtakes, processing investment, and permitting scrutiny.

US–Indonesia trade deal resets rules

A new Agreement on Reciprocal Trade sets 19% US tariffs on Indonesian goods while Indonesia commits to easing non‑tariff barriers, including limits on import licensing and SPS rules. Compliance and sector exemptions reshape market access and pricing strategies.

Ports, freight corridors, logistics capex

Budget 2026 lifts capex to ~₹12.2 lakh crore (4.4% of GDP), funding seven rail corridors, freight corridors, and logistics upgrades. Lower transit time and logistics costs can improve export competitiveness, but timelines, land acquisition, and contractor capacity remain key.

Dezenflasyon ve faiz patikası

TCMB 2026 enflasyon aralığını %15–21’e yükseltti; Ocak yıllık enflasyon %30,7. Kademeli faiz indirimleri sürse de oynaklık riski ve kredi koşulları sıkı. Şirketler fiyatlama, sözleşme endeksleri ve finansman maliyetlerini yeniden kalibre etmeli.

Sanctions escalation and secondary pressure

The U.S. continues expanding and enforcing sanctions—especially targeting Russia- and Iran-linked networks and “shadow fleets”—raising secondary-sanctions exposure for non‑U.S. firms. Banks, shippers, insurers, and traders face higher due‑diligence burdens, payment disruptions, and contract frustration risk.

Supply-chain diversification accelerates

Geopolitical risk is pushing major buyers and contract manufacturers to diversify production to India, Vietnam, and the US, while Taiwanese champions expand abroad. This reshapes supplier qualification, lead times, and capex plans—creating opportunities for new regional ecosystems.

Balancing China ties under U.S. scrutiny

Mexico raised tariffs up to 50% on some Asian imports while China seeks deeper supply-chain ties; Chinese automakers are bidding for Mexican plants. Companies face heightened origin and transshipment scrutiny, potential investment screening pressures, and reputational/political risk in North America.

Kur-enflasyon oynaklığı ve finansman

Ocak’ta aylık enflasyon yaklaşık %5, yıllık %30,7; hanehalkı 12 ay beklentisi %48,81. Politika faizi %37 seviyesinde. Dalgalı TL ve yüksek kredi maliyetleri ithalat, fiyatlama, tedarik sözleşmeleri ve sermaye planlamasında kur riski yaratıyor.

Property slump and confidence drag

Housing weakness persists despite policy easing: January new‑home prices fell 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y, with declines in 62 of 70 cities. This weighs on consumption and credit, increasing payment risk, project delays, and cautious capex by China‑exposed partners.

US–China tech controls tightening

Advanced semiconductor and AI chip trade remains heavily license-bound. Recent U.S. scrutiny over Nvidia H200 terms and penalties for tool exports to Entity-Listed firms signal elevated enforcement risk, end-use monitoring, and disruption to China-facing revenue, R&D collaboration, and capex plans.

War-risk insurance and de-risking

War-risk coverage is shifting from pilots to structured frameworks, including state support via the Export Credit Agency and growing DFI participation. Improved insurance enables capex and trade finance, but pricing, exclusions and claims processes still constrain project bankability.

Property slump and demand uncertainty

Housing remains a key drag on confidence and consumption despite targeted easing. January showed slower month-on-month declines, yet year-on-year weakness persists across most cities. Multinationals should expect uneven regional demand, supplier stress, and heightened counterparty and payment risks.

Stricter sanctions enforcement on logistics

France’s detention and multi‑million‑euro fine of a Russia-linked ‘shadow fleet’ tanker signals tougher, physical sanctions enforcement. Energy traders, shipping, insurers, and ports must upgrade due diligence, document trails, and counterparty screening to avoid delays, seizures, and penalties.

US LNG export expansion and contracting

U.S. LNG developers continue signing long-term offtake deals (e.g., 20-year, 1 mtpa agreements) as permitting loosens, supporting major capacity growth into the 2030s. For energy-intensive industries and importers, this reshapes global gas pricing, shipping, and industrial siting decisions.

Capital markets opening and IPO wave

Tadawul’s broader opening to foreign investors aims to attract institutional inflows, adding depth to local funding options. For corporates, it supports dual listings, debt-equity raises, and M&A pricing—but governance, disclosure, and foreign ownership caps still shape deal structuring.

Ports, logistics, and labor dynamics

U.S. port labor negotiations and automation disputes remain a recurring disruption risk for Atlantic/Gulf gateways, even when contracts are reached. Shippers should plan for volatility via routing diversity, buffer inventory, and carrier/terminal optionality to protect service levels and working capital.