Volatilidade macro, juros e câmbio

Inflação (IPCA-15) surpreendeu e o Copom sinaliza início de cortes da Selic, hoje alta, enquanto projeções apontam Selic de 12% no fim de 2026 e câmbio perto de R$5,42. Para importadores/exportadores, aumenta risco de hedge e custo de capital.

Green industrial parks and ESG compliance

Northern Vietnam expects ~5,050 hectares of new industrial land (2026–2029) as investors demand ESG-aligned parks with renewables, water recycling and smart management. Average industrial rent ~US$135/sqm; occupancy remains solid. Compliance capabilities increasingly affect site selection and financing.

EU market integration and regulation

Ukraine is deepening alignment with EU rules and seeking accelerated accession, but EU capitals resist fast-track timelines. Progressive integration could expand single-market access (transport, digital, customs) while increasing compliance burdens, audit requirements, and regulatory change velocity.

Investment chill from policy uncertainty

Canadian officials warn trade uncertainty is delaying net business investment. For multinationals, this heightens the value of flexible capex phasing, hedging and scenario planning, while affecting M&A valuations, project finance costs, and supplier commitments tied to U.S. market access.

China-Derisking und Technologiekontrollen

EU und Berlin verschärfen Sicherheits- und Technologiepolitik gegenüber China, u.a. bei 5G/6G, Cloud und kritischer Infrastruktur; Huawei bleibt dennoch in EU-Forschungsprojekten bis 2027–2030 eingebunden. Unternehmen müssen Compliance, Exportkontrollen, IP-Schutz und Retorsionsrisiken neu bewerten.

Digital tax compliance and e-invoicing

ZATCA e‑invoicing requirements are driving ERP upgrades, real‑time reporting, audit trails, and stricter data governance. Noncompliance can disrupt invoicing and cash collection; compliant firms gain faster clearance and better visibility across procurement, inventory, and payments.

War-driven FX and rates

Regional conflict triggered heavy FX intervention (about $12B in one week) and emergency liquidity tightening; overnight rates neared 40% and repo auctions were suspended. Expect higher hedging costs, payment volatility, and tighter working-capital conditions for importers and leveraged firms.

Bahnkorridore: Baustellen und Störungen

Engpässe im Schienennetz belasten Just-in-time-Logistik und Inlandverteilung. Die Sperrung Hamburg–Berlin verzögert sich bis 14. Juni; Fernzüge werden umgeleitet (+45 Minuten) und Regionalverkehre teils per Bus ersetzt. Weitere Korridorsanierungen bis Mitte der 2030er erhöhen Übergangsrisiken.

Red Sea shipping and Eilat disruption

Houthi threats in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden continue to distort routing, insurance, and delivery times. Prior attacks forced effective shutdowns at Eilat, and renewed escalation could again impair Israel’s southern trade link, increasing reliance on Mediterranean ports and overland alternatives.

Import surge narrows trade buffers

January trade surplus fell to $950m as imports rose 18.21% YoY, outpacing 3.39% export growth. Narrower external buffers increase sensitivity to commodity cycles, global risk-off moves, and fuel-price shocks—affecting hedging needs, working capital, and profit repatriation planning.

Regional conflict spillovers

Gaza and broader regional war dynamics elevate security and operational risks, including aviation disruptions and refugee-related fiscal strain. Firms should plan for intermittent border, shipping, and air-route interruptions, plus episodic social and political pressures that can affect permitting and enforcement.

Schuldenbremse, Haushalt, Investitionsstau

Koalitionsstreit um die Schuldenbremse bremst Planungssicherheit für Infrastruktur, Energie- und Verteidigungsinvestitionen. Unsicherheit über zusätzliche Kreditspielräume beeinflusst Förderprogramme, öffentliche Aufträge und Standortkosten. Unternehmen müssen mit verzögerten Projekten, schwankenden CAPEX-Anreizen und politischem Risiko kalkulieren.

Outbound M&A and megadeal momentum

Governance pressure and cheap financing are driving record-scale Japanese deals, including take-privates and overseas acquisitions. Rising deal flow boosts integration and leverage risks but creates entry points for foreign partners, suppliers, and private capital across industrial and tech assets.

Volatile rates, inflation, FX

Copom started easing with a cautious 25bp Selic cut to 14.75% after holding 15%, stressing Middle East oil-shock risks. Oil above US$100 can add ~0.25pp per 10% to IPCA, affecting hedging, pricing, and capital flows.

Sanctions and banking compliance risks

The Halkbank deferred-prosecution deal ends a major Iran-sanctions case but tightens compliance expectations via independent monitoring. Meanwhile scrutiny of re-exports to Russia persists. Firms face heightened KYC/AML, trade-finance frictions, secondary-sanctions exposure, and partner due-diligence burdens.

Municipal service delivery and arrears

Municipal non-payment to Eskom exceeds R110bn, prompting potential supply interruptions in 14 municipalities, including industrial nodes. Weak local governance also drives water outages and emergency procurement risks. Businesses must plan for localised power/water interruptions, billing changes and higher compliance burdens at municipal level.

Supply-chain friendshoring minerals deals

Japan is negotiating overseas critical-minerals access, including talks with India on Rajasthan deposits (1.29m tonnes REO identified) and aligning with a G7 critical-minerals trade framework. These moves reshape sourcing, compliance, and long-term offtake contracting strategies.

Sanctions expansion and compliance burden

Ukraine is tightening sanctions against Russia-linked defense, finance, crypto, and “shadow fleet” actors, including 225 captains and dozens of entities. Multinationals face heightened due-diligence, counterparty screening, and shipping-chain transparency requirements to avoid secondary exposure and reputational risk.

Mining export capacity and critical minerals

South Africa’s dominance in manganese and other minerals is colliding with logistics constraints; planned Ngqura terminal capacity expansion to 16mt/year and corridor upgrades could unlock export growth. Investors should track permitting, environmental commitments, and rail reliability improvements.

Industrial relations and strike disruption

Union leverage and compliance enforcement are rising across transport, logistics, construction and mining, with threats of coordinated action affecting warehousing and freight networks. Firms should plan for bargaining risk, contingency routing, and supplier resilience as labour costs and stoppage probability increase.

US tariff risk and trade diplomacy

Thai industry groups flag uncertainty around potential US universal tariffs amid Thailand’s widening US surplus (reported $72bn in 2025). Thailand is exploring more US energy imports to support negotiations; exporters face downside risk in electronics, autos and consumer goods.

Tarifas dos EUA pressionam exportadores

Exportações brasileiras aos EUA caíram 20,3% em fevereiro, sétimo mês de queda após sobretaxa de 50% imposta em 2025; o governo estima 22% das exportações ainda atingidas. Empresas recalibram preços, rotas, estoque e diversificação de mercados.

Petróleo na Margem Equatorial

A fiscalização da ANP autuou a Petrobras por não conformidade crítica em sonda na Foz do Amazonas, com multa potencial até R$2 milhões e exigências de correção. Projetos na Margem Equatorial seguem com alto escrutínio regulatório, ESG e risco de interrupções, afetando cadeia de óleo e gás.

Political consolidation and anti-corruption drive

National Assembly elections remain overwhelmingly party-dominated (~93% party candidates), while leadership signals intensified anti-corruption focus. This supports governance credibility but can slow approvals, heighten enforcement uncertainty and increase compliance demands for licensing, procurement and local partnerships.

Tax administration and compliance risk

FBR revenue gaps (~Rs428bn in eight months) are pushing negotiations to lower the annual target to ~Rs13.45tr. Expect intensified audits, new levies (including on fuels) and ad‑hoc enforcement that can change landed costs and compliance burdens quickly.

Maritime services restrictions risk

Policy debate is shifting from price-cap compliance to a full maritime services ban, targeting insurance, brokering and shipping support for Russian crude and products. If adopted, it would sharply reduce lawful service availability, complicate chartering and claims, and raise freight and legal costs globally.

China pivot in EVs and agri-trade

Canada is selectively reopening to China-made EV imports—49,000 vehicles at 6.1% tariff (vs 106%)—in exchange for reduced Chinese barriers on canola and other farm goods. The move diversifies trade but adds geopolitical and USMCA negotiation sensitivity for automakers.

Supply-chain insurance and security pricing

War-risk insurance, specialized underwriting, and state-supported facilities remain critical for shipping and infrastructure work. Persistent attacks on ports and energy nodes keep premiums elevated, affecting Incoterms, inventory buffers, and working-capital needs for importers, exporters, and project contractors.

US–China tariff volatility returns

US court-driven tariff reshuffles and temporary Section 122 surcharges create unstable landed costs for China-linked trade. Firms face recurring renegotiations, shipment front-loading, and sudden retaliation risk, complicating contracting, pricing, and inventory planning across transpacific supply chains.

Mega FTAs reshape market access

India’s new trade diplomacy is lowering barriers and rewriting sourcing economics. The India‑EU FTA delivers zero-duty access for key exports while phasing down India’s high auto and wine tariffs; India‑US reciprocal tariffs reportedly fell from 25% to 18%, improving predictability.

Energy security and price shock

Iran-related disruption risks and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty are lifting oil/LNG costs, freight surcharges and war-risk insurance. Thailand has moved to diversify crude/LNG (including US cargoes) and cap diesel, but input-cost volatility threatens margins, inflation and FX stability.

Trade reorientation toward United States

US imports from Taiwan hit $24.7B in Dec 2025 versus China $21.1B, while Taiwan’s US trade deficit reached about $147B. AI hardware demand is driving this shift, benefiting exporters but heightening exposure to US policy, audits, and localization demands.

Financial markets resilient but volatile

Despite conflict, equity and currency moves can be sharp, affecting hedging and funding. Tel Aviv indices hit records and the Finance Ministry sold 3.3bn ILS bonds with ~20bn ILS demand, yet risk premia can reprice quickly as hostilities evolve and ratings are reassessed.

Domestic politics affecting economic policy

Opposition-led legislative initiatives, including limits on exporting advanced chip know-how, and scrutiny of the ART ratification process can delay policy execution. Businesses should monitor parliamentary timelines, consultation requirements, and potential rule changes affecting investment approvals and market access.

Currency, rates, liquidity management

The State Bank pledges flexible policy as external shocks and oil-driven inflation pressures grow. Credit outstanding reached 18.86 quadrillion VND by Feb 26 (+1.4% since end‑2025). The interbank exchange rate averaged 26,044 VND/USD end‑Feb (0.94% stronger vs end‑2025), but funding conditions can tighten quickly.

Tax uncertainty and compliance burden

Revenue shortfalls are driving pressure for higher effective taxation, including super tax debates, broadening the tax base, and stronger enforcement. Businesses face policy unpredictability, refund delays, and higher compliance costs, affecting pricing, working capital, and expansion decisions.