Sanctions enforcement and compliance burden

Treasury’s OFAC expanded designations targeting Iran’s shadow fleet and procurement networks, signaling aggressive secondary-risk posture for shipping, traders and banks. Multinationals face heightened screening needs, shipment delays, higher insurance costs, and greater penalties exposure for facilitation.

Energy export force majeure risk

Israel’s offshore gas exports face heightened disruption risk during regional conflict; recent force majeure halted roughly 1.1 bcf/d to Egypt. This raises counterparty and price risk for regional buyers and affects petrochemicals, power costs, and investment decisions tied to Eastern Mediterranean energy flows.

Energy security and LNG flexibility

Japanese firms handled ~110 million tons of LNG in 2024; destination-restricted volumes remain ~40%, though projected to decline. JERA’s long-term Qatar deal (3 mtpa for 27 years) plus U.S. LNG adds resilience, influencing power costs and contract strategies.

Black Sea export corridor risk

Russia’s intensified missile and drone strikes on ports keep the Odesa maritime corridor operational but fragile, raising insurance and freight costs and causing volatile volumes. Disruption would hit grain, metals and containerized trade, widening delivery lead times.

Trade finance isolation and FATF blacklist

Iran remains on the FATF “call for action” blacklist, constraining correspondent banking and increasing de‑risking by global banks. This elevates AML/CFT due diligence burdens, pushes trade into barter or informal channels, and complicates receivables, escrow, and documentary trade instruments.

Sanctions expansion and enforcement

US/EU sanctions remain the primary constraint on Iran exposure, with intensified enforcement targeting entities, ships, and intermediaries supporting illicit oil sales. Companies face heightened secondary-sanctions risk, stricter due diligence on counterparties, and greater compliance burdens across trade, finance, and insurance.

Shipbuilding and LNG carrier upswing

Geopolitical energy reconfiguration is boosting demand for LNG carriers, FLNG and related offshore projects, benefiting Korean yards. However, China is underbidding by ~10% on LNG carriers and gaining early orders, pressuring margins and delivery-slot competition through 2029.

USMCA review and tariff risks

The 2026 USMCA/CUSMA review is raising tariff and rules-of-origin uncertainty, with U.S. officials signaling higher baseline tariffs and stricter content rules. This volatility is delaying investment decisions, reshaping North American sourcing, and increasing compliance and pricing complexity.

Energy infrastructure and export chokepoints

Iran’s exports remain concentrated at Kharg Island, while the Jask terminal offers limited bypass capacity but slower loading. Strikes, sabotage, or operational constraints can quickly reduce throughput, amplifying volatility in regional petrochemicals, shipping availability, and upstream service demand.

Energy security and LNG exposure

Middle East disruptions highlighted Taiwan’s limited gas storage (~11 days) and reliance on LNG, including Qatar (~about one‑third). Government is diversifying—e.g., a ~25‑year Cheniere deal and targeting US LNG share ~15–20% by 2029—yet power-price volatility remains.

Tech sector rebound, talent volatility

High-tech remains central—about 17% of GDP and 57% of exports—while war-driven reservist call-ups and emigration weighed on staffing. Funding improved to $15.6bn in 2025 (from $12.2bn in 2024), with defense-tech growth reshaping investment theses and compliance needs.

Cyber, illicit finance, and compliance risk

Sanctions evasion activity—often involving front firms, dual-use procurement, and emerging crypto channels—elevates fraud and cyber risk in Iran-linked trade. Firms should expect higher KYC/KYB standards, end-use controls, and increased scrutiny on technology exports and industrial equipment.

Taiwan Strait disruption risk

Rising cross-strait coercion, drills and arms sales tensions increase the probability of gray-zone maritime/air disruption. Even limited incidents can spike insurance, delay shipping, and threaten energy and semiconductor flows, stressing just-in-time supply chains and contingency planning for Taiwan-linked nodes.

High-tech supply-chain sensitivity

Israel’s semiconductor and photonics ecosystem is benefiting from AI demand, yet geopolitical shocks can trigger order reallocation and supplier risk reviews. Multinationals should assess single-site dependencies, export-control exposure, and continuity plans for critical components.

Shadow fleet oil trade to China

Iran sustains revenues via a large “shadow fleet” using reflagging, AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers, and relabeling to deliver discounted crude largely to China. This raises exposure to seizures, port denials, and reputational risk for shippers, traders, and service providers.

Supply chain dependence on imported inputs

January 2026 trade showed exports US$43.19bn (+30.1% YoY) but imports US$44.97bn (+49.6%), reflecting high-tech supply chains. The FDI sector accounts for ~78% of exports and ~71% of imports, amplifying FX, sourcing, and geopolitics-related disruption exposure.

US tariffs reshape export outlook

US tariff policy has shifted to a temporary 10% global import surcharge (150 days from Feb 24, 2026), while sectoral tariffs persist (e.g., metals 50%). This creates near-term pricing relief but high uncertainty for exporters and supply contracts.

Monetary uncertainty amid weak investment

With policy rates around 2.25% and inflation near 2.3%, the Bank of Canada is prioritizing optionality as trade uncertainty clouds forecasts. Soft growth and elevated unemployment raise downside risks, affecting FX, financing costs and project hurdle rates for cross-border investors.

Cross-border data rules under ART

ART RI–AS memperkuat arus data lintas batas; Indonesia diminta tidak membatasi penyimpanan/pemrosesan data (mis. asuransi) di luar negeri. Ini meningkatkan efisiensi cloud dan menarik investor digital, tetapi menambah risiko kepatuhan UU PDP, akses regulator, serta ketahanan operasional saat insiden siber/geopolitik.

Tariff volatility and legal limits

Rapid shifts in US tariffs—courts curbing IEEPA-based duties while the administration pivots to Section 122/232/301—keep import costs and pricing unstable. Firms should scenario-plan for sudden rate changes, refund litigation, and compliance-driven sourcing re-optimisation.

Energy supply shock and LNG

Israel’s force-majeure halt cut about 1.1 bcf/d of gas flows. Egypt, consuming ~6.2 bcf/d versus ~4.1 bcf/d output, leased ~2 bcf/d FSRU capacity and plans ~75 LNG cargoes, raising power-price and industrial curtailment risks.

Security, crime, and operational resilience

Organised crime, cargo theft, and periodic unrest elevate costs for logistics, retail, and extractives, influencing site selection and insurance. Government focus on enforcement may help, yet firms should plan for disruption, strengthen supplier security, and build redundancy in distribution networks.

Energieschockrisiko durch Nahostkonflikt

Die Iran-Krise treibt Öl- und Dieselpreise; Szenarien sehen bei Brent $100 BIP-Verluste von 0,3% (2026) und 0,6% (2027) bzw. rund €40 Mrd. Höhere Energie- und Transportkosten belasten Industrie, Logistik, Inflation und Preisgestaltung internationaler Lieferketten.

Balancing China ties under U.S. scrutiny

Mexico raised tariffs up to 50% on some Asian imports while China seeks deeper supply-chain ties; Chinese automakers are bidding for Mexican plants. Companies face heightened origin and transshipment scrutiny, potential investment screening pressures, and reputational/political risk in North America.

Transnet logistics bottlenecks and reform

Transnet’s rail/port constraints, high debt (~R144bn) and locomotive shortfalls keep export corridors volatile. While PPPs and corridor upgrades (e.g., coal/iron-ore) progress, congestion, vandalism and maintenance backlogs elevate shipping delays, costs, and inventory buffers.

US tariff and investment pressure

Korea faces volatile US trade policy: tariffs shifted from 25% to 15% tied to a US$350bn Korea investment pledge, while Washington signals renewed Section 232/301 actions. Exporters must plan for abrupt duty changes, compliance, and US localization.

Aduanas, digitalización y costos cumplimiento

La reforma aduanera 2025 elimina excluyentes de responsabilidad: agentes ahora son corresponsables y elevan honorarios, exigen más documentación y limitan mercancías “riesgosas”. La digitalización obliga a subir datos a sistemas, generando inversiones, retrasos y colas en cruces.

Critical minerals and export controls

Dependence on China for rare earths and intermediates is a strategic vulnerability amid tightening export controls. Companies should expect higher price volatility, longer lead times, and accelerated diversification into recycling, substitute materials and non‑Chinese supply agreements for manufacturing resilience.

UK CBAM draft rules consultation

The government launched a technical consultation on draft legislation for a UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Importers of covered emissions‑intensive goods should prepare for new reporting, data and potentially tax liabilities, influencing sourcing, pricing, and decarbonisation investment across supply chains.

Critical minerals export controls

Beijing is tightening rare-earth and critical-mineral policy, improving export-control systems and using licensing to manage access. With China processing about 90% of rare earths, supply disruptions and price spikes can hit EV, defense, and electronics supply chains worldwide.

Infrastructure mega-spend and PPP pipeline

Government plans ~R1.07 trillion infrastructure spend over three years, with transport/logistics the largest share and revised PPP rules to crowd in private capital. Execution quality, procurement capacity and municipal performance will determine opportunities and project-delivery risks.

Acordo UE–Mercosul em vigor

A UE decidiu aplicar provisoriamente o acordo UE–Mercosul e o Senado brasileiro aprovou o texto, aguardando assinatura presidencial. O tratado tende a eliminar tarifas para 91% dos bens, alterando competitividade, regras de origem e estratégias de acesso ao mercado europeu.

Defence industrial strategy uncertainty

Procurement delays and unclear spending timelines are creating instability for defence primes and suppliers. The £1bn New Medium Helicopter decision remains pending, raising closure risk for Leonardo’s Yeovil plant (3,000 jobs) and a wider supply chain, affecting investment decisions.

Export competitiveness and market access

Exports—especially textiles—remain pivotal, yet vulnerable to energy costs, compliance, and foreign tariff changes. With the US a key market and EU access crucial, tighter standards or tariffs would hit orders, supplier stability, and long-term supply-chain commitments.

Énergie nucléaire et dépendances d’approvisionnement

Relance du programme EPR et prolongation des réacteurs impliquent une montée en charge industrielle et une pénurie de compétences (100.000 recrutements d’ici 2035). Les controverses sur l’uranium russe (112 t enrichi en 2025) créent risques de conformité et de chaîne d’approvisionnement.

Political and security tightening post-election

Post-election tensions around opposition figures and security deployments elevate operational risk: protest disruption, permit uncertainty, and heightened scrutiny of NGOs/media. For investors, governance risk can affect licensing timetables, security costs, and reputational exposure in sensitive sectors.