Renewables buildout cost pressures

Offshore wind development continues but with sharply rising materials and construction costs; JERA’s 315 MW Akita project targets 2028 start-up. Higher capex and supply constraints may slow auctions, reshape PPA pricing, and affect localization plans for turbine supply chains.

Kredi koşulları ve makroihtiyati çerçeve

Kredi faizleri yüksek seyrediyor; para politikası aktarımı sınırlı, makroihtiyati tedbirlerin kademeli gevşemesi dezenflasyon hızına bağlı. Kart limitleri gibi adımlar iç talebi etkileyebilir. Şirketler için işletme sermayesi, vadeli satış ve stok finansmanı zorlaşıyor.

Enerji arzı, LNG ve hublaşma

Türkiye LNG kapasitesini büyütüyor; Avustralya’dan ilk LNG kargosu geldi ve gazın yaklaşık yarısı LNG olarak ithal edilebilir hale geldi. Azerbaycan 2025’te Türkiye’ye 11,915 bcm gaz gönderdi. Tedarik çeşitlenmesi sanayi için güvence sağlarken fiyat oynaklığı sürüyor.

Pembatasan pajak layanan digital

Klausul ART melarang pajak layanan digital yang diskriminatif terhadap perusahaan AS serta melarang bea atas transmisi elektronik, sambil membuka komitmen transfer data lintas batas. Ini menurunkan opsi kebijakan fiskal dan memengaruhi negosiasi dengan platform global, tetapi dapat mempercepat investasi cloud, pusat data, dan layanan digital.

High housing and rate-stability focus

The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates at 2.50% through 2026 as Seoul apartment prices rise for 55 straight weeks and FX risks dominate. Tighter macroprudential bias can constrain credit availability, affecting real estate, consumer demand, and project financing assumptions.

Cross-border corridor and border security

Thailand and Myanmar are exploring a Tachilek–Mae Sai transit corridor to move Thai fruit to China via Myanmar and expand bilateral flows. However, periodic border tensions and security policies can disrupt checkpoints, insurance costs, and delivery reliability for border supply chains.

Semiconductor Demand, Routing, Controls

AI-driven memory demand is boosting exports and growth, but supply chains are complex: U.S.-bound chips often route via Taiwan packaging. Ongoing U.S. Section 232/301 investigations and allied export-control coordination could affect investment, customer diversification, and licensing burdens.

Regulatory uncertainty, policy credibility

Even with improving macro indicators (primary surplus ~1.3% of GDP; current-account surplus), business planning is constrained by frequent policy adjustments tied to IMF benchmarks and coalition politics. Expect shifting tax measures, price controls and sectoral directives; robust scenario planning and stabilization clauses are critical.

Governance and anti-corruption tightening

Ahead of IMF review, Pakistan’s governance plan targets high-risk agencies and strengthens AML/CFT, procurement rules and asset-declaration transparency. For multinationals this can improve fair competition over time, but near-term brings more scrutiny on payments, beneficial ownership, and higher documentation burdens in tenders.

Freight rerouting strains supply chains

Shipping disruptions are forcing reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope, doubling 40-foot container rates from about $3,500 to $7,000. Thai shippers estimate ~32bn baht of goods stuck in transit and ~33.3bn baht monthly damage, hitting exporters’ cash flow and lead times.

Economic security screening tightens

Tokyo is moving toward a “Japan CFIUS” and revising economic-security law to backstop designated overseas projects via JBIC subordinated capital, plus stricter land and sensitive-sector reviews. Multinationals should expect more approvals, disclosures, and partner diligence in critical industries.

Gas production shutdowns ripple regionally

Security-driven stoppages at Leviathan and Karish triggered force majeure and cut exports to Egypt and Jordan. Volatile output affects regional power and industrial users, LNG procurement, and energy prices, while complicating project finance for Israel’s planned capacity expansion to ~21 bcm/year.

Yuan management and capital controls

China’s active currency management, including lowering FX forward risk reserves from 20% to 0% to temper yuan moves, adds volatility for pricing and hedging. Businesses face shifting costs of FX risk management, potential administrative guidance, and episodic constraints affecting profit repatriation and cross-border liquidity.

US–Vietnam trade deal uncertainty

Reciprocal trade-agreement talks with Washington are accelerating, but Vietnam’s record US surplus (about US$133.8bn in 2025) heightens tariff, rules-of-origin, and anti-circumvention scrutiny. Exporters should harden traceability, pricing, and compliance programs.

US LNG export expansion and contracting

U.S. LNG developers continue signing long-term offtake deals (e.g., 20-year, 1 mtpa agreements) as permitting loosens, supporting major capacity growth into the 2030s. For energy-intensive industries and importers, this reshapes global gas pricing, shipping, and industrial siting decisions.

Data, privacy and AI compliance

The Data (Use and Access) Act 2025 and wider online safety/AI initiatives reshape UK data governance and enforcement expectations. Multinationals must reassess lawful basis, complaints handling, cross-border data flows and vendor controls, with compliance costs affecting digital service scaling.

War-driven fiscal and supply reorientation

Russia’s war economy prioritizes defense output and logistics resilience, while export patterns concentrate on China, India and Turkey (around 93% of seaborne crude). This reorientation changes market access, increases geopolitical conditionality in trade, and creates sudden regulatory barriers for Western firms.

UK–EU border friction persists

Post-Brexit trade remains burdened by customs/SPS checks and ongoing regulatory divergence. Businesses report costly documentation and shifting procedures; agri-food and pharma face particular compliance complexity. This raises lead times, inventory needs and the value of EU-based distribution footprints.

Trade frictions and tariff exposure

Thai growth outlook remains sensitive to U.S. tariff changes and global trade volatility, with exports expected to soften after front-loaded shipments. Firms should stress-test pricing and sourcing, diversify markets, and monitor FTA negotiations and customs enforcement changes.

Política comercial e tarifas de importação

Medidas para reforçar arrecadação e indústria local, como aumento de Imposto de Importação sobre bens de capital e TI/telecom, podem elevar custos de projetos, automação e tecnologia, pressionando margens. Para exportadores, volatilidade tarifária externa aumenta risco de demanda.

Major rail logistics capacity build

Turkey secured preliminary $6.75bn financing from six international institutions for a 125–126km Northern Railway Crossing linking Istanbul’s airports and boosting Asia–Europe freight. Target capacity is ~30 million tons annually, improving reliability and lowering transit risk for supply chains.

Manufacturing Export Competitiveness Squeeze

Potential global US levies under Trade Act Section 122 and follow-on tools could lift effective tariffs on non-chip exports (e.g., machine tools, textiles, plastics, bicycles). Taiwan’s competitiveness versus Korea/Japan may hinge on exemptions, quota access, and rules-of-origin strategy.

Expanded defense exports, rearmament

Japan is doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP and moving to relax limits on defense equipment exports, including potentially lethal items and third-country sales of jointly developed systems. This opens opportunities in aerospace, components, cyber, and dual-use—but raises regulatory and reputational considerations.

US–Indonesia trade pact reset

The Reciprocal Trade Agreement expands market access but creates compliance and political risks: Indonesia promises fewer export restrictions to the US yet keeps raw-ore bans, while most US imports face 0% tariffs. Firms should anticipate regulatory follow-through and potential renegotiation pressures.

State-backed semiconductor reshoring push

Japan is scaling strategic chip capacity via Rapidus: government took a 40% stake (11.5% voting rights) and plans further investment, targeting 2‑nm mass production in 2027. Subsidies reshape supplier ecosystems, site selection, and partnership opportunities for inbound investors.

Tariff volatility and legal risk

U.S. tariff policy remains highly volatile, with rates rising sharply in 2025 (average tariff reportedly from ~2.6% to ~13%) and courts scrutinizing executive authority. Importers face pricing shocks, rushed front‑loading, contract renegotiations, and compliance costs.

Semiconductor 232 carve-outs

Taiwan secured preferential treatment for semiconductors under US Section 232 frameworks and quotas for duty-free shipments, reducing uncertainty for high-tech exports. However, compliance, rules-of-origin and potential future 232 investigations remain key operational risks for suppliers and OEMs.

Mining as next export pillar

Saudi Arabia is positioning mining as a core diversification engine, citing an estimated $2.5 trillion resource base and a new investment law emphasizing licensing clarity and ESG. International miners and processors may find opportunities in phosphates, aluminum and rare earths, alongside localization requirements.

US probes non-tariff barriers

Washington is pressuring Seoul to dismantle “non-tariff barriers,” including digital-platform, mapping-data, and app-store payment rules, and is considering Section 301 actions. This raises compliance and lobbying costs for multinationals and could trigger targeted duties or market-access concessions.

Trade deficits, taxes and fiscal pressure

Wartime budgets remain defense-heavy (71% of 2025 spending; $39.2bn deficit), with debt projected above 100% of GDP in 2026. Revenue measures (excises, bank taxes, entrepreneur VAT thresholds) can alter consumer demand, pricing and payroll economics.

IMF program and fiscal tightening

Ongoing IMF EFF/RSF reviews dominate policy, with a roughly $1.2bn tranche linked to tax collection, spending restraint, and governance benchmarks. Slippages risk renewed FX pressure, import curbs, delayed payments, and weaker investor confidence.

Expanding U.S. trade remedies

After U.S. courts constrained emergency tariffs, Washington is pivoting to Section 122, 232 and 301 tools. Canada faces risk of wider sector probes (e.g., aircraft, agriculture, digital services) and additional compliance burdens, increasing volatility for cross-border contracts and logistics.

China dependency and pricing pressure

Iran is heavily dependent on China as the buyer of over 80% of its seaborne crude, largely to Shandong teapot refiners constrained by quotas and margins. Competition from discounted Russian barrels forces deeper Iranian discounts, increasing revenue volatility and counterparty risk for Iran-linked deals.

Escalating US–China tech restrictions

US export controls on advanced AI chips and entity listings are widening, while alleged smuggling/third-country routing raises enforcement and reputational risk. Chinese firms are accelerating domestic 7nm–5nm capacity expansion, reshaping supplier ecosystems and complicating cross-border R&D collaboration.

Freight logistics and port capacity

Transnet’s reform programme is moving into executed private-sector participation deals, including Durban Pier 2 upgrades, Richards Bay and Ngqura terminal projects, and open-access rail with 11 train operators targeting operations from FY2027. Improved corridors materially affect exporters’ costs and reliability.

Industrial localization incentives expansion

A 2026 decree broadens Investment Law Article 11 incentives, offering 50% (Sector A) or 30% (Sector B) tax deductions on investment costs over seven years, capped at 80% of paid-in capital. It targets autos/EVs, appliances components, chemicals, and SCZone.