Sectoral duties hit metals autos

Section 232-style tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos remain the most damaging to Canada, driving production shifts and shutdown risks. Multinationals should reassess sourcing, rules-of-origin, and capacity allocation across North America to protect margins and contract reliability.

Critical Minerals Supply Security Push

India is negotiating critical-minerals partnerships with Brazil, Canada, France and the Netherlands, building on a Germany pact, focused on lithium and rare earths plus processing technology. This supports EVs, renewables and defence supply chains, while reducing China concentration risk.

China export curbs on Japan

Beijing imposed dual-use export bans on 20 Japanese entities and tightened licensing for 20 more, with extraterritorial restrictions on China-origin items. This raises compliance, sourcing, and contract-friction risks across aerospace, machinery, autos, and electronics supply chains.

AB ticaret kuralları ve CBAM

İhracatın %42’si AB’ye, %57’si Avrupa’ya gidiyor. CBAM ve Yeşil Mutabakat uyumunun yavaş kalması pazar kaybı riski doğuruyor; enerji ve işçilik maliyetleriyle birleşince üreticilerin karbon ölçümü, raporlama ve yatırımlarda sermaye ihtiyacını artırıyor.

Semiconductor 232 carve-outs

Taiwan secured preferential treatment for semiconductors under US Section 232 frameworks and quotas for duty-free shipments, reducing uncertainty for high-tech exports. However, compliance, rules-of-origin and potential future 232 investigations remain key operational risks for suppliers and OEMs.

Energy transition: nuclear-renewables balancing

EDF warns surplus power and weak electrification are forcing more nuclear modulation, increasing maintenance costs and affecting pricing dynamics. Uncertainty over the energy roadmap and grid demand growth impacts energy-intensive industries, PPA strategies, and project bankability.

China de-risking and market access

Germany’s China exposure remains high: 2025 bilateral trade totaled €251.8bn, while firms report rising intervention and unequal competition. De-risking efforts and tougher screening can reshape sourcing for critical inputs, force localisation choices, and raise geopolitical contingency planning costs.

Reconstruction finance and procurement

Large-scale rebuilding is accelerating demand for engineering, equipment, logistics, and services, often tied to donor financing and transparency requirements. Access hinges on compliant procurement, local partnerships, and managing corruption and integrity risks in high-value public contracts.

Electricity reliability and capacity shortfalls

CFE’s productive investment fell 24% in 2025 to about 46.6 billion pesos, worsening generation and transmission gaps. Rising demand risks more outages and higher marginal costs, complicating site selection for data centers and factories and increasing reliance on self-generation and PPAs.

Cabinet reshuffle reshapes economic policy

A reshuffle created a deputy PM for economic affairs and appointed a new investment and foreign trade minister, signaling a push to accelerate reforms amid prolonged external shocks. Businesses should expect faster policy execution, but also transitional uncertainty in decision-making channels.

Palm biodiesel mandate B40

Mandatori biodiesel berbasis sawit dipertahankan di B40 sepanjang 2026 (PP No.40/2025) dengan rencana transisi ke B50. Kapasitas terpasang 22 juta KL, alokasi 16,5 juta KL; 2025 realisasi ~96% target. Kebijakan ini mempengaruhi ketersediaan CPO untuk ekspor, harga domestik, dan ESG risiko deforestasi.

AUKUS industrial build-out

AUKUS is driving multi-decade defence industrial expansion, including a ~A$30bn Osborne submarine yard and A$3.9bn skills spend. Opportunities rise for suppliers, but US submarine production constraints create delivery uncertainty, complicating long-lead procurement planning.

Nickel production controls and downstreaming

Indonesia is tightening state control over nickel, cutting mining approvals and cracking down on questionable licenses, while keeping raw ore export bans. With ~60% of global supply, policy shifts can swing prices, disrupt EV/stainless supply chains, and deter miners.

Halal standards and import exemptions

Ahead of October 2026 ‘mandatory halal’ enforcement, ART provisions may exempt some US cosmetics, medical devices, and certain goods/packaging from halal certification or ease recognition via US certifiers. Domestic backlash signals ongoing uncertainty, potential WTO disputes, and compliance fragmentation for importers.

FX instability and import constraints

Sanctions and limited banking access strain hard-currency availability, driving rial volatility and complicating letters of credit, repatriation, and supplier payments. Importers face higher working-capital needs, sporadic shortages of inputs and spare parts, and increased reliance on intermediaries and barter-like structures.

Inversión extranjera: más reinversión

Aunque la IED alcanzó ~US$41,000 millones hasta 3T2025 (+15% interanual), solo ~US$6,500 millones fueron proyectos nuevos. La cautela privada se asocia a incertidumbre regulatoria y comercial, afectando pipelines de nearshoring, alianzas y financiamiento de nuevas plantas.

Tighter sanctions licensing and guidance

OFSI published 2026 guidance on how it prioritises licence applications, signalling a more structured, transparent approach but also higher compliance expectations. Businesses should anticipate longer lead times for sensitive transactions, stronger documentation requirements, and increased need for sanctions governance.

Security, crime, and operational continuity

Persistent organised crime and infrastructure sabotage risks raise insurance costs, disrupt logistics and construction, and require higher security spending for sites and transport. Business continuity planning, secure transport corridors, and supplier vetting remain essential, especially for high-value exports.

Tax enforcement and governance tightening

IMF-linked governance agenda expands anti-corruption, procurement and wealth-disclosure reforms, plus stronger FBR compliance efforts. These shifts raise near-term regulatory and audit intensity for multinationals, but can improve predictability, level competition, and reduce informal-payment demands over time.

Tech sector rebound, talent volatility

High-tech remains central—about 17% of GDP and 57% of exports—while war-driven reservist call-ups and emigration weighed on staffing. Funding improved to $15.6bn in 2025 (from $12.2bn in 2024), with defense-tech growth reshaping investment theses and compliance needs.

Deflation and overcapacity pressures

China’s demand remains soft: January CPI +0.2% y/y and PPI −1.4% y/y, extending multi‑year factory deflation. Firms should expect aggressive price competition, export push to clear capacity, margin compression for suppliers, and higher countervailing‑duty risk abroad.

Risco climático e navegabilidade amazônica

Secas severas recentes na Amazônia aumentaram busca por eficiência e confiabilidade no transporte fluvial, essencial para grãos e combustíveis. A recorrência do choque hídrico eleva risco operacional para supply chains no Norte, exigindo estoques de segurança, rotas alternativas e seguros mais caros.

Energy export rerouting and discounts

Crude and product flows keep shifting toward China, India and Türkiye, often at deeper discounts; Urals’ Baltic discount to Brent widened to about $28/bbl. Buyers face tightening due diligence, price-cap uncertainty, and higher freight/ice costs, impacting refining margins and supply security.

Domestic suppliers upgrading constraints

Vietnam’s supporting industries face stricter technical standards from foreign-invested manufacturers, while access to medium/long-term credit and industrial land remains limited. This raises localization risk and may prolong qualification cycles. Buyers should invest in supplier development and dual sourcing.

West Bank policy escalation and sanctions risk

Cabinet moves to deepen West Bank control and ease land acquisition for settlements raise diplomatic friction. Companies face heightened reputational exposure, potential EU/US policy responses, and tighter due diligence on counterparties, locations, and projects linked to occupied territories.

Regulatory push to unlock FDI

Government plans “BOI Fast Pass” and an omnibus investment law to streamline land, permits and investor visas, targeting 900bn baht of realised investment from 1.8tn baht applications. Faster approvals aid greenfield projects, but legal changes create transition risk for existing operators.

Fiscal Rules and Investment Execution

Debate over Germany’s debt brake and stimulus delivery creates uncertainty for contractors and investors. A €500bn off-budget infrastructure fund and sharply higher defense budgets may boost demand, but political resistance and execution shortfalls can delay projects, permitting, and procurement pipelines.

Exchange rate and import management

Although inflation has moderated, Pakistan’s external position remains sensitive. Any shock could trigger rupee volatility and administrative import management. This impacts sourcing lead times, inventory planning, and the ability to access inputs, especially for export manufacturers.

Trade facilitation and customs overhaul

Authorities aim to slash licensing and border frictions: customs clearance reportedly cut from ~16 days to five, targeting two days, with ports operating seven days. New digital platforms and tariff adjustments seek to reduce clearance time/costs, improving supply-chain velocity for importers and exporters.

Tensions agricoles et réglementation

Entre débats sur pesticides (acetamipride) et future loi d’urgence agricole (eau, élevage), le secteur reste politiquement inflammable. Les entreprises agroalimentaires et retail doivent gérer volatilité réglementaire, risques de blocages logistiques et exigences ESG accrues.

Sanctions enforcement tightening and incentives

OFSI is reforming enforcement with a case‑assessment matrix, public penalties, and higher potential maxima (proposed £2m or 100% of breach value). Discounts up to 30% for voluntary disclosure/cooperation and cumulative reductions encourage faster reporting, raising compliance burdens for banks and traders.

Black Sea export corridor fragility

Ukraine’s maritime export corridor via Odesa/Chornomorsk remains operational but under intensified missile, drone, and mine threats. Volumes can swing sharply and war-risk premiums rise, affecting grain, metals, and container logistics, contracting terms, and delivery reliability for global buyers.

U.S. tariffs and USMCA review

Ongoing U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, plus uncertainty ahead of the USMCA/CUSMA review, are reshaping pricing, investment and sourcing decisions. Court action narrowed some emergency tariffs, but new U.S. tools keep policy volatility high.

State-asset sales and SOE restructuring

Government plans to restructure 60 state companies—40 to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and 20 toward EGX listing—while the IMF presses for a smaller state footprint. This opens M&A and PPP opportunities but execution risk remains, including valuation, governance, and regulatory unpredictability.

AUKUS industrial build-out

AUKUS commitments are translating into massive domestic defense infrastructure and procurement, including an estimated A$30bn submarine yard at Osborne. This reshapes industrial capacity, workforce demand, and supply chains for steel, specialized components, cyber, and sovereign capability requirements.

Taiwan Strait disruption risk

Rising cross-strait coercion, drills and arms sales tensions increase the probability of gray-zone maritime/air disruption. Even limited incidents can spike insurance, delay shipping, and threaten energy and semiconductor flows, stressing just-in-time supply chains and contingency planning for Taiwan-linked nodes.