Pemex: deuda, liquidez y socios

Pemex bajó deuda a US$84.500m (‑13,4%) pero Moody’s prevé pérdidas operativas promedio ~US$7.000m en 2026‑27 y dependencia fiscal. Emitió MXN$31.500m localmente para vencimientos 2026 y amplía contratos mixtos con privados; riesgo para proveedores y energía industrial.

Currency volatility and multiple rates

Exchange‑rate distortions and attempted unification efforts have fueled dollar demand and rial depreciation, amid allegations of delayed oil‑revenue repatriation. This elevates pricing uncertainty, contract renegotiations, and payment risk for importers/exporters, and strengthens grey‑market channels for procurement and settlement.

North America China-evasion enforcement

U.S. officials are pressing partners to curb ‘non-market economy’ leakage into North American supply chains, spotlighting Chinese EVs and components. Companies may face tighter origin verification, audits, and customs enforcement, affecting sourcing strategies for autos, batteries, critical minerals, and electronics.

Regulatory Change for Logistics and Retail

Proposed reforms to allow 24-hour online operations and “dawn delivery” for big-box retailers are contested by labor groups over night-work burdens. If adopted, it could intensify last-mile competition, reshape warehousing shifts, and increase compliance exposure around working-time rules.

Chabahar port and corridor uncertainty

India’s Chabahar operations face waiver expiry (April 26, 2026) and new U.S. tariff threats tied to Iran trade, prompting budget pullbacks and operational caution. Uncertainty undermines INSTC/overland connectivity plans, increasing transit risk for firms seeking Eurasia routes via Iran.

Energy planning and power constraints

Vietnam is revising national energy planning to support 10%+ growth targets, projecting 120–130 million toe demand by 2030 and rapid renewables expansion. Businesses face execution risk in grids, LNG logistics, and permitting; power reliability remains a key site-selection factor.

USMCA renegotiation and North America risk

Signals of a tougher USMCA review and tariff threats elevate uncertainty for integrated US‑Canada‑Mexico manufacturing, notably autos and batteries. Firms should stress-test rules-of-origin compliance, cross-border inventory strategies, and contingency sourcing as negotiations and enforcement become more politicized.

Падение нефтегазовых доходов

Доходы бюджета от нефти и газа снижаются: в январе 2026 — 393 млрд руб. против 587 млрд в декабре и 1,12 трлн годом ранее; в 2025 падение на 24% до 8,5 трлн руб. Это усиливает налоговое давление и бюджетные риски.

UK–EU border frictions endure

Post‑Brexit customs and SPS requirements, the Border Target Operating Model, and Northern Ireland arrangements continue to reshape UK–EU flows. Firms face documentation risk, delays, and higher logistics overheads, driving route diversification, inventory buffers, and reconfiguration of distribution hubs serving EU markets.

Auto sector reshoring pressures

Canada’s integrated auto supply chain faces U.S. tariff threats on vehicles and parts plus competitiveness challenges versus U.S. incentives and Mexico costs. Companies should reassess North American footprints, content sourcing, and contingency production, especially for EV and battery supply chains.

Ужесточение контроля судоходства

Запад переходит к физическому пресечению обхода: перехваты и досмотры танкеров, обсуждения ареста судов, давление на «безфлаговые» и переоформление танкеров под российский флаг. Фрахт, страхование и портовые сервисы дорожают, повышая сбои отгрузок.

Skilled-visa uncertainty and delays

H-1B tightening—$100,000 fees, enhanced social-media vetting, and India consular interview backlogs reportedly pushing stamping to 2027—raises operational risk for U.S.-based tech, healthcare and R&D staffing. Companies may shift work offshore or redesign mobility programs.

Migration tightening, labour shortages

Visa rule tightening is depressing skilled-worker and student inflows; analysts warn net migration could turn negative for the first time since 1993. Sectors like construction, care and health face hiring frictions, lifting wage pressure and constraining delivery timelines for UK operations.

Sanctions Exposure via Russia Links

Turkey’s balanced stance toward Russia and deep energy/trade links create secondary-sanctions and compliance complexity for multinationals. Firms must strengthen counterparty screening, dual-use controls and trade-finance diligence, especially around sensitive goods, re-exports and shipping/insurance arrangements involving Russian entities.

EV and automotive supply-chain shift

Thailand’s auto sector is pivoting toward electrification: 2025 production about 1.455m units (−0.9%), while BEV output surged (reported +632% to 70,914) and sales rose (+80%). Incentives and OEM localization change parts sourcing, standards, and competitor dynamics.

Labor-law rewrite raises hiring risk

Parliament plans to enact a revised labor law before October 2026 following Constitutional Court mandates to amend the Job Creation/omnibus framework. Firms should prepare for changes in severance, contracting, and dispute resolution that could affect labor-intensive manufacturing competitiveness and investment planning.

War-risk insurance capacity expands

New DFC-backed war-risk reinsurance facilities (e.g., $25 million capacity supporting up to $100 million limits) are gradually improving insurability for assets and cargo in Ukraine. Better coverage can unlock FDI and reconstruction contracts, but pricing, exclusions, and geographic limits remain tight.

Förderlogik und KfW-Prozesse im Wandel

KfW vereinfacht Förderprogramme, während Budgets und Kriterien (z. B. hohe Zuschussquoten bis 70% beim Heizungstausch) politisch und fiskalisch unter Druck stehen. Für Anbieter und Investoren steigen Planungsrisiken, Vorfinanzierungsbedarf und die Bedeutung förderfähiger Produktkonfigurationen.

ديناميكيات غزة ومعبر رفح

إعادة فتح معبر رفح بشكل محدود وتحت ترتيبات تفتيش ومراقبة مع حصص يومية للحركة يؤثر في تدفقات المساعدات والعمالة واللوجستيات إلى شمال سيناء. أي تصعيد أو تشديد قيود يرفع مخاطر التشغيل للشركات قرب الحدود ويؤخر الإمدادات والمشاريع.

FCA crypto regime tightening

FCA’s CP26/4 and Consumer Duty guidance pull crypto trading, custody and safeguarding into mainstream conduct standards, with an authorisation gateway due Sept 2026–Feb 2027 and full regime expected Oct 2027—reshaping UK market entry and product design.

Incertidumbre por revisión del T-MEC

La revisión obligatoria del T‑MEC hacia el 1 de julio y señales de posible salida o “modo zombi” elevan el riesgo regulatorio. Se discuten reglas de origen, antidumping y minerales críticos, afectando decisiones de inversión, pricing y contratos de largo plazo.

Gasversorgungssorgen treiben Wärmewende-Tempo

Sehr niedrige Gasspeicherstände (unter 30%) erhöhen Preis- und Versorgungsschwankungen für gasbasierte Wärme, insbesondere im Süden. Das beschleunigt Umstiegsentscheidungen zu Wärmepumpen und Fernwärme, verändert Beschaffungsstrategien und erhöht Hedging-, Vertrags- und Kreditrisiken entlang der Lieferkette.

Reconstruction finance and procurement

Large-scale rebuilding is accelerating demand for engineering, equipment, logistics, and services, often tied to donor financing and transparency requirements. Access hinges on compliant procurement, local partnerships, and managing corruption and integrity risks in high-value public contracts.

Sanctions escalation and secondary tariffs

U.S. “maximum pressure” is tightening via new designations of tankers/entities and a threatened 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This widens compliance exposure beyond Iran-facing firms, raising legal, financing, and market-access risks across global supply chains.

Fiscal rules and policy volatility

Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces criticism that the UK’s fiscal framework over-emphasizes narrow “headroom,” risking frequent policy tweaks as forecasts move. For investors, this elevates uncertainty around taxes, public spending, infrastructure commitments, and overall macro credibility.

Treasury demand and credibility strain

Reports of Chinese regulators urging banks to curb US Treasury buying, alongside elevated issuance, steepen the yield curve and raise term premia. Higher US rates lift global funding costs, hit EM dollar borrowers, and reprice project finance and M&A hurdles.

Shadow-fleet oil trade disruption

Iran’s crude exports rely on a mature “dark fleet” using AIS spoofing, ship-to-ship transfers and transshipment hubs (notably Malaysia) to reach China at discounts. Expanded interdictions and tanker seizures increase freight, insurance, and contract-frustration risks for energy-linked supply chains.

Strategic port build-out: Great Nicobar

The Great Nicobar project—incl. ₹40,040 crore transshipment port at Galathea Bay—was cleared by NGT, targeting 4+ million TEU by 2028 and 16 million TEU later. It aims to reduce reliance on Colombo/Singapore, shifting maritime routing, lead times, and India logistics competitiveness.

Ports upgrades and maritime competitiveness

Karachi launched modern bunkering with Vitol, targeting 500k–600k tons annually and 70–100 operations monthly, improving turnaround. Gwadar airport/free-zone incentives and highways expand options. Benefits depend on security and governance, but could lower logistics friction.

Dezenflasyon ve lira oynaklığı

Ocak 2026 enflasyonu yıllık %30,65, aylık %4,84; konut %45,36 artışta. Dezenflasyon sürse de kur ve fiyat oynaklığı ücret, kira, girdi maliyetleri ve fiyatlama stratejilerinde belirsizlik yaratıyor; stok, kontrat ve hedge ihtiyacını artırıyor.

Port, logistics and infrastructure expansion

Vietnam is accelerating seaport and hinterland upgrades to reduce logistics bottlenecks: planned seaport investment to 2030 totals 359.5 trillion VND (US$13.8bn). Rising vessel calls and container throughput support supply-chain resilience, but construction timelines and local congestion remain risks.

Licenciamento ambiental e conflitos

Protestos indígenas bloquearam acesso a terminal no Tapajós, contestando dragagem e privatização de hidrovias, enquanto mudanças no licenciamento aumentam incerteza jurídica. Para agronegócio e mineração, atrasos podem interromper rotas do Arco Norte, encarecer seguros e exigir due diligence socioambiental reforçada.

High-tech FDI and semiconductors

Vietnam is moving up the value chain, attracting electronics and semiconductor ecosystems. Bac Ninh hosts 1,140+ Korean projects with US$18.5bn registered capital; 2025 realised FDI reached ~US$27.62bn. Opportunity is strong, but skills shortages and supplier depth constrain localisation.

Lieferkettenrecht, Bürokratie, ESG

17 Verbände fordern Aussetzung oder Angleichung des deutschen Lieferkettengesetzes an EU-Recht (EU-Schwelle: >5.000 Beschäftigte und 1,5 Mrd. € Umsatz; DE: ab 1.000 Beschäftigte). Für multinationale Firmen bleibt ESG-Compliance komplex, mit Haftungs-, Audit- und Reportingkosten sowie Reputationsrisiken.

Monetary policy and inflation persistence

Banxico has paused or slowed rate cuts as inflation remains sticky (around 3.8% early 2026) and pushed its 3% convergence target to 2027. Elevated rates and FX sensitivity affect working capital, project finance costs, and consumer-demand outlooks.

Fiscal expansion and policy credibility

President Prabowo’s growth agenda and large social spending (including a reported US$20bn meals program) pushed the 2025 deficit to about 2.92% of GDP, near the 3% legal cap. Moody’s shifted outlook negative, heightening sovereign, FX, and refinancing risks.