Monetary easing amid weak demand

The Bank of Thailand cut the policy rate to 1.0% amid persistent low growth and 10 months of negative inflation, with a strong baht squeezing exporters. Lower borrowing costs help investment, but currency volatility and subdued credit—especially for SMEs—remain key risks.

Risco fiscal e credibilidade

A dívida bruta projeta-se em ~83,6% do PIB ao fim do mandato e pode superar 88–90% a partir de 2029, reacendendo debate sobre recalibrar o arcabouço fiscal. Isso eleva prêmio de risco, afeta câmbio, juros e custos de capital para investidores.

Insurance and payments constraints

Western P&I and banking restrictions are pushing Russia-linked trade toward Russian insurers and alternative payment channels. India’s one‑month renewals for Russian marine insurers highlight fragility. Interruptions in insurance availability can halt port calls, delay cargoes, and raise total landed costs.

Ports, air cargo, multimodal logistics

Major logistics capacity is coming online: Great Nicobar transshipment port (phase 1 by 2028; 4+ million TEU), FedEx’s ₹2,500‑crore Navi Mumbai air hub, and Gati Shakti rail cargo terminals. These can lower export lead times but add project, permitting, and integration risk.

Data-centre boom strains power

Thailand is positioning as a regional data-centre hub: BOI approved seven projects worth over THB96bn, with 36 projects totaling THB728bn in 2025. Egat is investing THB31bn to expand EEC transmission capacity, making electricity access a key site-selection constraint.

Inestabilidad social y riesgo regulatorio

Las protestas recurrentes y respuestas de seguridad elevan el riesgo operativo: cierres de internet, restricciones a apps, mayor vigilancia y cambios normativos rápidos. Esto afecta logística urbana, continuidad de negocios, ciberseguridad y cumplimiento de datos, complicando operaciones de filiales y partners.

AUKUS industrial build-out

AUKUS is driving multi-decade defence industrial expansion, including a ~A$30bn Osborne submarine yard and A$3.9bn skills spend. Opportunities rise for suppliers, but US submarine production constraints create delivery uncertainty, complicating long-lead procurement planning.

Critical minerals and lithium policy

Mexico’s lithium nationalization has not yet translated into production; key deposits are clay-based and costly to extract, with state firm LitioMX pursuing technology partnerships. Uncertainty around permitting and commercial terms complicates EV-battery supply chain plans and upstream investment.

Rising deception and trade opacity

Investigations uncovered a network of ~48 shell entities shipping over $90bn of Russian crude using shared infrastructure, short-lived firms, and opaque labeling. Compliance teams should expect higher documentation fraud, beneficial-ownership complexity, and elevated contractual and reputational risk.

Sectoral duties hit metals autos

Section 232-style tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos remain the most damaging to Canada, driving production shifts and shutdown risks. Multinationals should reassess sourcing, rules-of-origin, and capacity allocation across North America to protect margins and contract reliability.

State asset sales and SOE restructuring

Egypt is preparing 60 state companies—40 for transfer to the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and 20 for stock-market listing—aiming to expand private participation. This creates M&A and PPP opportunities, but governance, valuation, and execution timelines are key risks.

Aviation resilience and competition risk

Regulators are tightening oversight after wartime capacity shocks: El Al faces a potential NIS 121m fine for ‘excessive’ pricing when its share exceeded 50–70% after Oct. 7. Route availability, fares, and travel-risk policies remain sensitive for multinationals.

Disrupsi Hormuz naikkan biaya logistik

Gangguan jalur Timur Tengah mendorong rerouting kapal, menambah 10–14 hari pelayaran dan berpotensi menaikkan freight 80–100%. Selain biaya, ketidakpastian jadwal menekan margin eksportir, mengganggu perencanaan inventori, serta meningkatkan kebutuhan working capital bagi importir bahan baku.

Energy price pass-through inflation

Oil and LNG price spikes quickly feed Korea’s power and industrial costs; LNG is ~28% of electricity generation. Higher JKM and crude-indexed contracts can lift wholesale power prices and strain Kepco/Kogas finances, increasing probability of tariff hikes and cost-push inflation.

Sanctions compliance and Russia leakage

Reports show sanctioned-brand vehicles (including Japanese marques) reaching Russia via China through “zero-mileage used” reclassification, complicating export-control compliance. Multinationals should tighten distributor controls, end-use checks, and auditing to reduce enforcement, reputational, and penalties risk.

Nickel quota cuts, ore imports

Pemerintah memangkas kuota produksi nikel 2026 ke ~250–270 juta ton dari RKAB 2025 379 juta; Weda Bay dipotong ke 12 juta wmt dari 42. Smelter berpotensi defisit 90–100 juta wmt dan impor bijih (2025: 15,84 juta ton; 97% Filipina) meningkat, mengguncang rantai pasok EV/stainless.

Immigration reform and talent availability

Government proposals to extend settlement (ILR) from 5 to 10 years—and longer for benefit use—are triggering legal challenges and employer concern, while a parallel review targets talent routes. Uncertainty may raise sponsorship costs and complicate hiring for health, tech and logistics firms.

Supply-chain infrastructure and labor fragility

Business continuity risks persist across rail, ports, and trucking corridors that underpin Canada’s trade flows. Any disruptions—labor disputes, extreme weather, or capacity bottlenecks—can quickly propagate into cross-border manufacturing and retail inventories, increasing the value of redundancy and nearshoring.

Auto supply chains under reshoring

U.S. reshoring rhetoric and auto tariffs threaten Canada’s highly integrated vehicle supply chain where parts cross borders multiple times. With job losses already reported, firms face pressure to reconfigure North American footprints, rules-of-origin strategies, and supplier localization to preserve duty-free access.

Energy infrastructure attacks, power rationing

Repeated strikes on generation and grid assets force firms onto costly imports and backup power, reducing industrial output and raising operating expenses. Growth is sensitive to localized outages; corporates should plan for intermittent electricity, heating and water disruptions.

Rail and mega-infrastructure push

Vietnam is reorganising Vietnam Railways into a national railway group to execute major corridors, including North–South high-speed rail, with charter capital projected ~VND 32.41 trillion (2026–2030). Large urban projects in Ho Chi Minh City also accelerate, improving supply-chain connectivity but raising execution and land risks.

AI model governance and IP leakage

Accusations that Chinese AI labs mined frontier models via fake accounts highlight growing IP and cybersecurity risk in cross-border AI collaboration. Expect tighter access controls by US labs, more audits of data/model use, and heightened due diligence for partnerships and cloud usage.

Dual-use export controls expansion

Beijing is widening dual-use controls, including blacklisting foreign defense-linked entities (e.g., Japanese aerospace and heavy industry). International firms must map China-origin inputs and re-export exposure, as licensing delays and end-use verification can disrupt aerospace, electronics and machinery supply chains.

Foreign investment concentration in EEC

January 2026 saw 113 foreign investor permits worth 33.8bn baht; 43% went to the Eastern Economic Corridor, led by Chinese, Singaporean and Japanese capital. Clustering supports supplier ecosystems, but heightens exposure to local power, labour and infrastructure constraints.

US trade access and tariff volatility

South Africa faces unstable US market access amid shifting Trump-era tariffs, AGOA political conditionality, and geopolitical tensions. Supreme Court rulings and temporary replacement tariffs create planning uncertainty for autos, agriculture and textiles, increasing hedging costs and accelerating market diversification.

Water scarcity and treaty pressures

Historic drought and Mexico–U.S. water treaty obligations are becoming operational risks, particularly for water-intensive industries in northern hubs. Potential rationing, higher tariffs, and community pushback can disrupt production, requiring water audits, recycling investment, and site selection adjustments.

Port expansion and logistics scaling

Vietnam is investing heavily to become a regional logistics hub. Seaport system investment needs are estimated at VND 359.5 trillion (US$13.8bn) by 2030, while Hai Phong and Cat Lai report strong TEU growth, reducing lead-time risk but stressing hinterland links.

Trade policy uncertainty: US tariffs

Authorities warn fluctuating U.S. tariff and fee policies could disrupt Thailand’s export outlook, even as electronics-led exports recently strengthened. Businesses should expect shifting rules-of-origin scrutiny, re-pricing needs, and greater value of diversified end-markets and ASEAN FTA utilisation.

Energy costs and grid constraints

Energy bills are easing but UK power prices remain sensitive to gas-linked marginal pricing and network constraints. Grid connection queues and infrastructure upgrades influence industrial siting and operating costs, pushing energy-intensive firms toward PPAs, self-generation and resilience planning.

Currency resilience and cost pressures

The baht is supported by a current account surplus (~3.1% of GDP) and reserves above US$200bn, but appreciation squeezes exporter margins. Rising labor costs (higher social security contributions) and PM2.5 disruptions add operating risk; hedging and contingency HR planning matter.

Industrial policy reshaping investment

CHIPS/IRA-style industrial policy continues redirecting capital toward U.S. manufacturing, clean tech, and strategic supply chains, with “guardrails” limiting certain China-linked expansions. Multinationals must weigh subsidy benefits against localization requirements, reporting, and constraints on overseas capacity.

LNG market diversification and arbitrage

Weak Asian spot demand is pushing Australian LNG cargoes to distant destinations (e.g., first to eastern Canada, plus Turkey/Chile). Longer voyages and shifting price signals alter shipping availability, freight costs, and portfolio optimisation for buyers and sellers.

Security shocks disrupting logistics corridors

Cartel violence, roadblocks and elevated cargo theft can abruptly halt flows on Manzanillo–Guadalajara–border routes, tightening trucking capacity and raising lead times. With 82% of theft concentrated in central/Bajío regions, shippers increasingly need secure carriers, tracking and rerouting plans.

Privatization and investability reforms

A National Privatization Strategy expands the Vision 2030 program across transport and other sectors, supported by clearer PPP frameworks. Private transport/logistics investment reportedly exceeded SAR 280 billion. Foreign firms gain more entry points, but must manage procurement and local-content rules.

Defense localization and supplier opportunities

SAMI is accelerating toward a target to localize 50% of defense spending by 2030, expanding industrial complexes, supply-chain programs and tech-transfer partnerships. Large procurement budgets can benefit foreign OEMs willing to co-produce locally, while export controls and offsets shape deal terms.

Ratificação do acordo Mercosul-UE

O Brasil ratificou o acordo Mercosul‑UE, abrindo caminho à aplicação provisória. Prevê zerar tarifas para 91% dos bens europeus em até 15 anos e 95% dos bens do Mercosul na UE em até 12 anos, com salvaguardas e cláusulas ambientais.