Iran domestic economic deterioration

Recent reporting indicates severe strain inside Iran, including gasoline shortages, bank-run fears, food-price inflation reportedly above 130%, and stalled imports. For foreign businesses, worsening macro instability raises payment delays, contract performance risks, labor stress, and unpredictability in local operating conditions.

EU tariffs on Chinese hybrids

The EU is preparing possible duties on Chinese plug-in hybrids after Chinese brands captured 47.2% of new EU PHEV registrations in the second quarter. German industry support for faster action signals changing market access conditions for automakers, suppliers and distributors.

EV Transition Reshapes Auto Market

Battery EV sales in Thailand surged 140% year on year to 22,275 units while internal combustion passenger car sales fell 33.7%. The shift is accelerating competitive pressure on legacy manufacturers, parts suppliers, and investors tied to conventional automotive production.

India-UK FTA Enters Force July 2026

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement took effect July 15, eliminating tariffs on 99% of Indian export lines and covering 29 chapters. Bilateral trade is expected to grow from $58 billion to $100-120 billion by 2030, boosting textiles, engineering goods, and services sectors.

Turkey-Iraq Trade Deepening

Turkey and Iraq are expanding commercial ties through business roundtables, customs facilitation discussions and higher bilateral trade ambitions. Reported trade reached roughly $17 billion to above $20 billion in 2024, with targets rising toward $30 billion, supporting exporters, contractors and border commerce.

Reconstruction and defense linkage

Despite battlefield pressure, Ukraine is deepening industrial cooperation with European partners through a new EU-Ukraine Defense Industrial Partnership. For investors, this points to selective opportunities in defense manufacturing, drones and dual-use industrial capacity, albeit under severe security constraints.

Eastern Mediterranean gas ambitions

Turkey and the TRNC began work on a planned 101-kilometer undersea gas link designed for two-way flow. The project could eventually open new export options from Cyprus through Turkey to Europe, but analysts say political and commercial obstacles remain substantial before 2030.

Pilbara Strike Threatens Exports

Industrial action at BHP’s Port Hedland terminal disrupted Australia’s core iron ore export chain, with the port shipping about $150 million daily and estimates of $40-53 million losses. The dispute underscores labour-relations risk for miners, shippers, customers, and state revenue dependent on resource exports.

Trade Policy Volatility Hurts Services

US tariff disruptions are spilling beyond goods into aviation and tourism, with analysts warning weaker growth, lower discretionary spending, and softer travel demand. For Australia’s long-haul-dependent service sectors, global trade uncertainty is becoming an operational and revenue headwind.

Expanded US Tariff Offensive

Washington imposed new 10-12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 economies under Section 301-style legal authority, increasing landed costs for importers and complicating sourcing decisions. Several reports note tariffs are largely passed through to U.S. buyers, amplifying inflation and trade-policy uncertainty.

India FTA Talks Advance

India and Israel completed a second FTA negotiating round covering goods, services, customs, technical barriers and intellectual property. With merchandise trade at $3.93 billion in 2025-26, progress could improve market access and diversify Israeli trade links toward Asia.

Secondary sanctions risk grows

A revised U.S. Senate sanctions bill would impose tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, while targeting Russia’s energy, financial and industrial sectors. This elevates geopolitical and compliance risk for firms exposed to Russia-linked trade corridors.

Oil trade faces tougher enforcement

The EU froze the Russian crude price cap at $44.10 per barrel until July 2027, added 41 shadow-fleet vessels, and for the first time targeted refueling and support ships. Energy traders, shippers, insurers, and commodity buyers face higher compliance and logistics disruption.

Auto exports to China slump

German car exports to China dropped 26.1% to €4.7 billion in the first five months, underscoring shrinking competitiveness in a critical market. The decline threatens earnings, supplier volumes and investment returns across Germany’s automotive and advanced manufacturing value chains.

Ethanol Access Becomes Flashpoint

Ethanol emerged as a specific source of dispute, with Brazil accused of restricting U.S. market access while retaining broad access to the American market. U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil reportedly fell to $96 million in 2025 from $761 million in 2018.

Damietta strike raises logistics risk

A drone strike hit gas vessels at Damietta port, including the 138,250-cubic-meter Energos Winter FSRU, exposing vulnerability at Egypt’s Mediterranean gateway. The incident heightens shipping security costs, threatens LNG handling continuity, and could delay cargo flows through Suez-linked routes.

US Tariffs Hit Exports

New US tariffs of 12.5% on Thai goods, tied to forced-labour enforcement claims, raise costs for exporters and importers. Frozen seafood, rubber products and household appliances appear especially exposed, despite exemptions covering about 2,120 items worth over half of Thai exports to America.

Traffic Collapse And Logistics Delays

Transit through Hormuz has fallen sharply, with one report showing only three commodity vessels crossing in a day versus roughly 125 daily before the war. Reduced tanker movements, load suspensions and ship turnarounds are worsening delivery schedules and inventory planning.

Fragile manufacturing cost base

Industrial policy is increasingly focused on higher-value local processing and ‘Made in Africa’ manufacturing, but recent reports show manufacturing contracted 0.8% in Q1 2026. Weak electricity, logistics and financing conditions, alongside inflation near 5%, continue to undermine competitiveness, margins and supplier development strategies.

Critical minerals diplomacy expands

President Lee’s South America push centers on restarting Mercosur trade talks and deepening cooperation on critical minerals, rare earths, and energy. The strategy aims to pair Korean manufacturing and battery strengths with resource access, supporting more resilient industrial supply chains.

US forced-labour tariffs hit exports

Washington imposed a 12.5% tariff on Australian exports from July 24 after a forced-labour investigation, despite Canberra’s objections. The move raises landed costs, complicates US market access, and increases compliance pressure across import-heavy supply chains and exporters serving America.

Taiwan capacity constraints persist

Despite overseas expansion, TSMC said it will keep leading-edge R&D and major fabrication growth in Taiwan, while noting land scarcity domestically and construction and infrastructure bottlenecks in Arizona. These physical constraints will shape production timing, supplier placement, and project execution risk.

Election Politics Intensify Tariff Volatility

Tariffs have become a central midterm political issue, with both parties campaigning on their economic effects while the administration highlights revenue and reshoring claims. This politicization increases the likelihood of abrupt policy shifts, making U.S.-linked trade and investment planning more volatile.

Iran exports move through dark fleet

Reports show Iranian-sanctioned supertankers transiting Hormuz with transponders switched off after U.S. oil waivers were revoked. This points to expanding opaque shipping practices, increasing due-diligence burdens for traders, shipowners, financiers and insurers exposed to sanctions evasion risks.

Critical Minerals Investment Push

Islamabad signed a two-year, $1.2 million US lobbying contract to attract American minerals investment and deepen strategic cooperation. With attention on Balochistan copper reserves and Reko Diq, Pakistan is actively seeking to diversify foreign capital beyond China despite elevated security risk.

Domestic refining capacity under review

Federal and Western Australian governments are funding a A$4 million feasibility study for a new oil refinery, the first in 60 years. The initiative aims to reduce import dependence, improve fuel resilience and create longer-term opportunities in logistics, industrial services and energy infrastructure.

Resilient Macro Financial Buffers

Saudi Arabia’s strong reserves, diversified financing and infrastructure helped preserve stability during regional turmoil, with A+/Aa3 sovereign ratings maintained, reserves near $496.5 billion, debt at 34.4% of GDP, and first-quarter nonresident equity inflows of $2.4 billion.

India-UK trade pact begins

The India-UK FTA and social-security convention have entered into force, lowering trade barriers, easing mobility costs for professionals, and improving market access across manufacturing, services, technology and finance, with positive implications for supply-chain diversification and bilateral investment.

Water infrastructure reform accelerates

The National Water Action Plan introduces licensing standards, municipal intervention powers, anti-corruption measures, and about R24 billion a year for water and sanitation projects. With roughly half of treated water reportedly lost, execution will materially affect industrial continuity and operating costs.

Trade disputes broaden beyond tariffs

Mexico brought 13 grievances to the latest U.S. talks, spanning tomatoes, avocado restrictions, meat labeling, customs violations, remittances, and labor enforcement. The breadth of disputes signals a more fragmented operating environment where regulatory frictions can affect multiple sectors simultaneously.

Manufacturing reshoring incentives intensify

The administration is pairing tariffs with tax incentives and political pressure to accelerate domestic investment, particularly in autos and strategic industries. This strengthens the case for U.S. localization, but also raises transition costs, site-selection complexity, and risks for existing offshore production footprints.

US tariffs hit exporters

Washington finalized new Section 301 tariffs of 10% on Indonesian goods, with further excess-capacity findings pending. Jakarta is lobbying for exemptions, but textiles, apparel, footwear, and furniture face margin pressure, deferred orders, and possible investment hesitation in export manufacturing.

Critical Infrastructure Targeting Expands

US strikes have broadened from military sites to bridges, rail links, port assets and power-related infrastructure around Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, while Iran hit power and desalination facilities in Kuwait. This widens operational disruption risks for logistics, utilities, industrial supply chains and regional trade corridors.

US tariff and transshipment risk

US customs inspections of Chinese-linked factories in Vietnam and stalled bilateral talks over transshipment, IP, and non-tariff barriers have raised the risk of additional Section 301 tariffs, threatening exporters, compliance costs, and sourcing strategies for Vietnam-based manufacturing.

Oil shock threatens operating costs

Officials warn Middle East escalation and disruption around Hormuz could lift oil prices, weaken the rupiah, and increase subsidy pressures by as much as Rp100 trillion. For businesses, that implies higher transport, fuel, plastics, and archipelago-wide logistics costs.

Regional conflict widens business risk

Saudi trade and investment conditions are increasingly shaped by spillovers from the US-Iran confrontation, Houthi actions, and alleged Iraq-based militia attacks. The widening conflict raises contingency requirements for multinationals operating across transport, energy, aviation, and critical infrastructure sectors.